Tips for Tikay

[Knottikay]

simply tremendous if you are on 2+ 147s. lol

Was on that last year @ 10/1 but best i saw was 13/2 this year so left it. What are you on at?

knotttikay put it up about 48 hours ago, will need to look back

much shorter than 10-1!

Yeah....only 6/1....but gives me a whole tournament sweat for my money. I am also on Allen e/w too. Just seen that Selby plays McGill in the next round. I hope Selby raises his game for this.......(have Selby e/w too).

[The Camel]

£30 on Chesterfield to win promotion, L1 @ 6.4 on the machine ta.

There's a fair chance they'll finish fifth, in which case they'll play stumbling Swindon in the semis. That would be ideal.

Whether they finish fifth or sixth could well come down to the final game v t'Blades but, either way, I'd quite like their chances whether they play Swindon or MK/Preston, both of whom will need to pick themselves up again after missing out on auto.

Chesterfield have some real quality in midfield, not least from Morsy, and play the game properly.

Is there any evidence for this "let down" effect in the playoffs?

The Championship playoffs are going to be absolutely fascinating this year.

The current top 4 are absolutely light years better than the rest of the division.

So it makes sense that the two from Bournemouth, Watford, Boro and Norwich who fail to go up automatically will be overwhelming favourites in the playoffs.

Or will they suffer a hang over from missing out and let Derby/Ipswich/Wolves or Brentford sneak in the back door?

[DungBeetle]

£30 on Chesterfield to win promotion, L1 @ 6.4 on the machine ta.

There's a fair chance they'll finish fifth, in which case they'll play stumbling Swindon in the semis. That would be ideal.

Whether they finish fifth or sixth could well come down to the final game v t'Blades but, either way, I'd quite like their chances whether they play Swindon or MK/Preston, both of whom will need to pick themselves up again after missing out on auto.

Chesterfield have some real quality in midfield, not least from Morsy, and play the game properly.

Is there any evidence for this "let down" effect in the playoffs?

The Championship playoffs are going to be absolutely fascinating this year.

The current top 4 are absolutely light years better than the rest of the division.

So it makes sense that the two from Bournemouth, Watford, Boro and Norwich who fail to go up automatically will be overwhelming favourites in the playoffs.

Or will they suffer a hang over from missing out and let Derby/Ipswich/Wolves or Brentford sneak in the back door?

I think Derby would be playoff favs unless Bournemouth are involved?  With bookies anyway.  Leicester were jollies two years ago after sneaking in.

[simonnatur]

Okay, deep breath..  Suggest £2.50, maybe £5 e/w tops on Starlight Banner @ 66/1 general 3.45 Catt.

The angle, such that it is, is that the sire's offspring are far superior on turf versus all weather (only 2 poor runs on the a/w to date, obv will need to improve dramatically for the surface and experience, but not impossible)
The sires offspring in gd to firm turf sprints have a record of 15% win and 45% place over an admittedly small sample of 20 runs.  

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/catterick/15:45/winner

[The Camel]

£30 on Chesterfield to win promotion, L1 @ 6.4 on the machine ta.

There's a fair chance they'll finish fifth, in which case they'll play stumbling Swindon in the semis. That would be ideal.

Whether they finish fifth or sixth could well come down to the final game v t'Blades but, either way, I'd quite like their chances whether they play Swindon or MK/Preston, both of whom will need to pick themselves up again after missing out on auto.

Chesterfield have some real quality in midfield, not least from Morsy, and play the game properly.

Is there any evidence for this "let down" effect in the playoffs?

The Championship playoffs are going to be absolutely fascinating this year.

The current top 4 are absolutely light years better than the rest of the division.

So it makes sense that the two from Bournemouth, Watford, Boro and Norwich who fail to go up automatically will be overwhelming favourites in the playoffs.

Or will they suffer a hang over from missing out and let Derby/Ipswich/Wolves or Brentford sneak in the back door?

I think Derby would be playoff favs unless Bournemouth are involved?  With bookies anyway.  Leicester were jollies two years ago after sneaking in.

Disagree, if the current 3-6 are in the playoffs I'm 99% certain Norwich would be jollies.

Something like this:

2/1 Norwich
5/2 Boro
11/4 Derby
6/1 Ipswich

[TightEnd]

Okay, deep breath..  Suggest £2.50, maybe £5 e/w tops on Starlight Banner @ 66/1 general 3.45 Catt.

The angle, such that it is, is that the sire's offspring are far superior on turf versus all weather (only 2 poor runs on the a/w to date, obv will need to improve dramatically for the surface and experience, but not impossible)
The sires offspring in gd to firm turf sprints have a record of 15% win and 45% place over an admittedly small sample of 20 runs.   

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/catterick/15:45/winner

66-1?

ok, we'll use a "one time" token for this!

 15:45 STARLIGHT BANNER (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 66/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  406.00

E/W is 1/5 1,2,3

[TightEnd]

RCB maybe a bit of value in the IPL late game today? 6/5 v an admittedly strong chennai side? mitchell starc back for the hosts is big, and their home form is traditionally very strong. chennai have been reliant on openers getting off to flying starts (starc should be able to combat that) and miserly bowling (gayle, kohli and abdv should be able to combat that!)

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/bangalore-v-chennai/winner

aye aye aye deep breath

Betting RCB in the IPL has been a quick way to the poor house. when i checked a week ago (in an article by ed hawkins i think) backing RCB to level stakes in the 10 years of the IPL had produced the biggest loss of any IPL team...usually backed to short prices/favouritism because they are "popular" with all the names, but never perform consistently to win games they should, on paper, win

anyway you'll know this

you'll also know that the tournament requires chennai to make the final four...backed by the bcci's main sponsors and full of the big name indian players. thats the IPLfor you

anyway, i can back RCB and we can get 13/10

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/bangalore-v-chennai/winner

just double check though please. is there anything specifically in today's game/team line ups etc that would push me over the line?

Starc would be one

[TightEnd]

£30 on Chesterfield to win promotion, L1 @ 6.4 on the machine ta.

There's a fair chance they'll finish fifth, in which case they'll play stumbling Swindon in the semis. That would be ideal.

Whether they finish fifth or sixth could well come down to the final game v t'Blades but, either way, I'd quite like their chances whether they play Swindon or MK/Preston, both of whom will need to pick themselves up again after missing out on auto.

Chesterfield have some real quality in midfield, not least from Morsy, and play the game properly.

Is there any evidence for this "let down" effect in the playoffs?

The Championship playoffs are going to be absolutely fascinating this year.

The current top 4 are absolutely light years better than the rest of the division.

So it makes sense that the two from Bournemouth, Watford, Boro and Norwich who fail to go up automatically will be overwhelming favourites in the playoffs.

Or will they suffer a hang over from missing out and let Derby/Ipswich/Wolves or Brentford sneak in the back door?

i only know the championship

In 28 seasons since 1987,

3rd = win 35%

4th = win 17%

5th = win 26%

6th = win 22%.

sporting intelligence produced a chart a few years ago by division

1 = finished 3rd etc 4 = finished 4th

Click to see full-size image.

this doesn't suggest much of a let down effect

[arbboy]

As with anything like this wagons remember the times it happens when a 6th seed goes up and forget the vast majority of times when they get beat in the first play off game.  The stats tighty put up are pretty conclusive that the highest placed team are probably value given they are usually around the 2/1 or 9/4 price.  Not sure if it is more significant as you go down the leagues or whether the division stats are just a blip.

I do somewhat agree with Dung though in that Derby will probably go off way too short in the play offs given the hype about them pre season and the 'big name' manager and players they have on the squad.

[The Camel]

As with anything like this wagons remember the times it happens when a 6th seed goes up and forget the vast majority of times when they get beat in the first play off game.  The stats tighty put up are pretty conclusive that the highest placed team are probably value given they are usually around the 2/1 or 9/4 price.  Not sure if it is more significant as you go down the leagues or whether the division stats are just a blip.

I do somewhat agree with Dung though in that Derby will probably go off way too short in the play offs given the hype about them pre season and the 'big name' manager and players they have on the squad.

If Derby are jollies, I'll lay them for the absolute max.

I make them clear underdogs against both Boro and Norwich.

In fact I'll lay for them for double maximum.

[arbboy]

As with anything like this wagons remember the times it happens when a 6th seed goes up and forget the vast majority of times when they get beat in the first play off game.  The stats tighty put up are pretty conclusive that the highest placed team are probably value given they are usually around the 2/1 or 9/4 price.  Not sure if it is more significant as you go down the leagues or whether the division stats are just a blip.

I do somewhat agree with Dung though in that Derby will probably go off way too short in the play offs given the hype about them pre season and the 'big name' manager and players they have on the squad.

If Derby are jollies, I'll lay them for the absolute max.

I make them clear underdogs against both Boro and Norwich.

In fact I'll lay for them for double maximum.

I missed posting the same off my original post.  That was the point of my original post fwiw!

[TightEnd]

My in laws that were are all Derby season ticket holders. one is in the local media and does commentary...has access to some behind the scenes chatter

they insist that McLaren is nailed on for Newcastle in the summer. common knowledge apparently

His wife stayed up in the family house in north yorkshire bought when he was appointed middlesborough manager

mclaren stays down most of the week, occasionally commutes to derby and wants to move to a job closer to home

since the players became aware of his impending depature i am told that performances tailed off

they absolutely insist they won't go up via the play-offs

[nellberg]

RCB maybe a bit of value in the IPL late game today? 6/5 v an admittedly strong chennai side? mitchell starc back for the hosts is big, and their home form is traditionally very strong. chennai have been reliant on openers getting off to flying starts (starc should be able to combat that) and miserly bowling (gayle, kohli and abdv should be able to combat that!)

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/bangalore-v-chennai/winner

aye aye aye deep breath

Betting RCB in the IPL has been a quick way to the poor house. when i checked a week ago (in an article by ed hawkins i think) backing RCB to level stakes in the 10 years of the IPL had produced the biggest loss of any IPL team...usually backed to short prices/favouritism because they are "popular" with all the names, but never perform consistently to win games they should, on paper, win

anyway you'll know this

you'll also know that the tournament requires chennai to make the final four...backed by the bcci's main sponsors and full of the big name indian players. thats the IPLfor you

anyway, i can back RCB and we can get 13/10

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/bangalore-v-chennai/winner

just double check though please. is there anything specifically in today's game/team line ups etc that would push me over the line?

Starc would be one

according to cricinfo starc is back. maybes hold off until team is confirmed? rcb on the road are a great lay, agreed, as always priced up on reputation. they'd still be favs against say rajastan away, despite their respective starts, which would be mad, but at home i have a feeling their record would be a fair bit better. chennai will defo make top 4, thats a standard, had a good start though so look booked for that anyway. my angle is starc v mccullum with new ball, and home advantage

[redsimon]

My in laws that were are all Derby season ticket holders. one is in the local media and does commentary...has access to some behind the scenes chatter

they insist that McLaren is nailed on for Newcastle in the summer. common knowledge apparently

His wife stayed up in the family house in north yorkshire bought when he was appointed middlesborough manager

mclaren stays down most of the week, occasionally commutes to derby and wants to move to a job closer to home

since the players became aware of his impending depature i am told that performances tailed off

they absolutely insist they won't go up via the play-offs

Heard same story at APAT Worlds at Easter. Saw he was 1/20 on VC on only "Next Newcastle Manager" market I could see. Surprised been nothing in media about it though?
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/newcastle/next-permanent-manager

now 1/8

[TightEnd]

FYI

Thought this might be useful given recent discussion on here

59 scottish constituencies and the current favourites in each

Click to see full-size image.