Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Recommend Fred doesn't place anything without Tighty approving or at least commenting on it, by the way.

Don't you think it is OK to have a few punts, so long as we know they are punts, or has your view changed since 9.25?

Of course it is. However, if we are going to give the event and the markets some proper scrutiny, the fun bets should come afterwards.

You don't want to be saying "there's a great bet here if we bet on X to happen" if we have already taken a bad price on X not happening, just for roffles. It's far less rofflicious to do that.

[Tal]

In an ideal world, lots of people who had lots of insight into lots of markets and lots of sports would offer contributions that made us all money and would offer lots of advice to those of us who would benefit from the guidance, so there wouldn't be the need for as much filler.

We don't live in an ideal world.

I don't think I've contradicted myself but I take your point. Always grateful for the opportunity to confirm I wasn't having a dig at exstream or anyone else. Thanks.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials

i have written up a piece which should be up before the draft, it covers every position

far fewer ricks this year. i'd say there is one, maybe two, tops

i found 4 bets (two were small), one of which was an outsider for value against a 1/16 favourite!

[TightEnd]

Tal where is the 6/1 o2.5 QBs?

i can't see any "how many" per position in the first round markets anywhere...

there was a coral o1.5 running backs at 1/2 that could have been 1/100 and still been value but that was pulled last week.....

[Tal]

Tal where is the 6/1 o2.5 QBs?

i can't see any "how many" per position in the first round markets anywhere...

there was a coral o1.5 running backs at 1/2 that could have been 1/100 and still been value but that was pulled last week.....

"1st round quarterbacks"

[arbboy]

Tal where is the 6/1 o2.5 QBs?

i can't see any "how many" per position in the first round markets anywhere...

there was a coral o1.5 running backs at 1/2 that could have been 1/100 and still been value but that was pulled last week.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-round-running-backs

2/5 and 4/11 still freely available.

[tikay]

There you go Tighty, & others......



http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-round-quarterbacks

[tikay]

Tal where is the 6/1 o2.5 QBs?

i can't see any "how many" per position in the first round markets anywhere...

there was a coral o1.5 running backs at 1/2 that could have been 1/100 and still been value but that was pulled last week.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-round-running-backs

2/5 and 4/11 still freely available.

Is that the correct market - "running backs"?

I thought it was QB's.

PS - If they are the same thing, I'll just crawl under a stone & die with embarrassment.

[TightEnd]

Tal where is the 6/1 o2.5 QBs?

i can't see any "how many" per position in the first round markets anywhere...

there was a coral o1.5 running backs at 1/2 that could have been 1/100 and still been value but that was pulled last week.....

"1st round quarterbacks"

right in front of my nose

that is a good price.

there are only 6 or so QBs likely to be drafted in the whole draft, 250+ picks

a terrible year for them

after winston and mariota you have, in no particular order

petty
hundley
grayson
mannion

10+ nfl teams don't have quality starting QB talent, there is a real shortage in the league

since the new CBA was introduced in 2013 teams now have the ability to tie up first round draft picks for 5 years, all other rounds 4

at a position like QB where players take a long time to develop this extra year is crucial, as you can sit them down with a peaked cap and a clipboard and let them learn for longer

so that tends to suggest that a third qb will get taken at the back end of the round. not on talent but just the scarcity of position and supply v demand in the league

so you could hypothesise winston going 1 mariota going 2 and then cleveland with two first round picks and manziel just out of rehab going QB again, or a bad team with an early second round pick trading up to 25-32 to get a QB for the future....

eg the bears and jets would be candidates for this

its still odds against, but i wouldn't have it at 5-1/6-1

thanks for the good spot 

[TightEnd]

Tal where is the 6/1 o2.5 QBs?

i can't see any "how many" per position in the first round markets anywhere...

there was a coral o1.5 running backs at 1/2 that could have been 1/100 and still been value but that was pulled last week.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-round-running-backs

2/5 and 4/11 still freely available.

Is that the correct market - "running backs"?

I thought it was QB's.

PS - If they are the same thing, I'll just crawl under a stone & die with embarrassment.

i was having a brain fade, not you. oddschecker overdose

for the short odds boys, gurley and gordon are absolute certainties for the first round unless they are arrested before thursday

2/5 now is in reality much much much shorter

[Tal]

Fred has up to £20 with me on QBs if he wants.

[arbboy]

Tal where is the 6/1 o2.5 QBs?

i can't see any "how many" per position in the first round markets anywhere...

there was a coral o1.5 running backs at 1/2 that could have been 1/100 and still been value but that was pulled last week.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-round-running-backs

2/5 and 4/11 still freely available.

Is that the correct market - "running backs"?

I thought it was QB's.

PS - If they are the same thing, I'll just crawl under a stone & die with embarrassment.

i was having a brain fade, not you. oddschecker overdose

for the short odds boys, gurley and gordon are absolute certainties for the first round unless they are arrested before thursday

2/5 now is in reality much much much shorter

No worries you making me sweat because i took the 1/2.  Happy to top up now at 2/5 and 4/11 now it will be easier to get on amongst numerous books.

Assume fred is having £100/£250?  

Hills are 4/9 btw so £225 to win £100 in order i feel for fred.  Should be able to get £1125 to win a monkey on a clean hills account.  bet 365 will lay £250 to win £100 on a clean account.

[TightEnd]

Fred has up to £20 with me on QBs if he wants.

at 6/1?

[Tal]

Fred has up to £20 with me on QBs if he wants.

at 6/1?

Yes. I am on (be rude not to back my own bets!)

[TightEnd]

Fred has up to £20 with me on QBs if he wants.

at 6/1?

Yes. I am on (be rude not to back my own bets!)

Solemn pronouncement

Tal can still get on with stan and james

a period of reflection is in order