Tips for Tikay

[simonnatur]

Add back in 2.5% of profit from the misclick files and we're all good again.

[Doobs]

could i suggest that life is too short, that things even out over time and we leave the numbers as they are?

Inclined to agree, we can never work out exactly what difference it makes, & with £140,000 staked, it can't make too much difference, can it?

Not terribly fussed either way, though I do prefer the numbers to reflect reality if poss.

It could easily wipe out 10% of the profit though?

I'll sort it.  I have got some old versions of the spreadsheet and finding the old ones should be easy enough.

Sure Mere could put in a manual adjustment

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £732.28

Outstanding Bets £3106.13

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=24

No bets concluded yesterday

NBA

The Cavs levellled their play off series with the Bulls 1-1 thanks to a great performance from Lebron James

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

The Clippers lost game 2 to the Rockets and are also tied 1-1 

Click to see full-size image.

MLB

The White Sox came from behind to beat the Tigers

Click to see full-size image.

The Rays beat the Red Sox at Fenway

Click to see full-size image.

cricket

Lancashire and Derbyshire drew their county games. Peters hit 82 for Northants

Lancs top of Div 2, Derbyshire 3rd

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/county-championship-division-two/table

Vijay was out for 2 in KXIP's shellacking at the hands of RCB and Chris Gayle

this image does not refer to tikay's housekeeping.....

Click to see full-size image.

On election day it was interesting to see that with the final polls tied then for Conservative to have most seats (2-3% ahead required) then the polling industry would have to be wrong outrside its margin of error.....which is entirely possible, indeed some project that

eg

Latest Ashcroft poll (05 - 06 May):
CON - 33% (+1)
LAB - 33% (+3)
UKIP - 11% (-1)
LDEM - 10% (-1)
GRN - 6% (-1)

the final guardian projection had

LAB 273 seats
CON 273
SNP 52
LD 27

polling observatory had lab 273-271

others have it 5-10 seats the other way

yet Conservative still 20 seats ahead on the spreads and 1/6 on the books for most seats

At this point in 2010 the spread betting markets had Tories 100 ahead on seats. The actual margin was 49

If the spread betting markets perform like they did in 2010 LAB will be 25 seats ahead

never felt more confident about a probable value loser lol

[TightEnd]

could i suggest that life is too short, that things even out over time and we leave the numbers as they are?

Inclined to agree, we can never work out exactly what difference it makes, & with £140,000 staked, it can't make too much difference, can it?

Not terribly fussed either way, though I do prefer the numbers to reflect reality if poss.

It could easily wipe out 10% of the profit though?

I'll sort it.  I have got some old versions of the spreadsheet and finding the old ones should be easy enough.

Sure Mere could put in a manual adjustment

there is an argument we wouldn't have done any of the bets under the offer, beforehand or in-play if we knew they weren't eligible for the offer

if we are to adjust, how about removing every bet365 offer pair of bets we can find, win or lose?

no idea how that would impact the numbers

[tikay]

could i suggest that life is too short, that things even out over time and we leave the numbers as they are?

Inclined to agree, we can never work out exactly what difference it makes, & with £140,000 staked, it can't make too much difference, can it?

Not terribly fussed either way, though I do prefer the numbers to reflect reality if poss.

It could easily wipe out 10% of the profit though?

I'll sort it.  I have got some old versions of the spreadsheet and finding the old ones should be easy enough.

Sure Mere could put in a manual adjustment

Thanks Doobs, & yes, a manual adjust can be done, I'm whizzo on spreadsheets.

[Chompy]

Sigh at the idea of following in Derek McGovern but...

Ben Crane has had four top tens in the last seven years at Sawgrass. 22-1 for top ten and 9-1 top 20. Anyone?

[tikay]

The Cavs levellled their play off series with the Bulls 1-1 thanks to a great performance from Lebron James


Now that's good, right?

[tikay]

Sigh at the idea of following in Derek McGovern but...

Ben Crane has had four top tens in the last seven years at Sawgrass. 22-1 for top ten and 9-1 top 20. Anyone?

No view at all, but we seem to have an empty book for The Players, it's great TV for 4 nights, & it'd be nice to have an interest, assuming we can find some perceived value.

[TightEnd]

The Cavs levellled their play off series with the Bulls 1-1 thanks to a great performance from Lebron James


Now that's good, right?

we have ante-post positions on both, but the Cavs is the bigger position

[The Camel]

Sorry for causing all this turmoil.

Just struck me as weird you were still eligible for the offer in the first place!



BTW. I love John Gale. True gentleman and 100% lovely chap.

Just doubt anyone in the history of poker will have run better than he did to win 2/3rds of a triple crown!

[tikay]

Sorry for causing all this turmoil.

Just struck me as weird you were still eligible for the offer in the first place!



BTW. I love John Gale. True gentleman and 100% lovely chap.

Just doubt anyone in the history of poker will have run better than he did to win 2/3rds of a triple crown!

Not your fault Keith, not at all. Maybe I should have kept schtum, but it's best we try to keep it real. I only discovered it by accident.

Agree as to John Gale. Proper awkward to play against, he was a bit of a maths guy.

He suffered from a bad back, & we were at Brighton Grosvenor one day, all crammed in something shocking. He busted mid level, but it was so cramped, he could not get out, & had to sit there for another 30 minutes. He didn't 'arf chunter, said he'd never play there again.

[doubleup]

Sigh at the idea of following in Derek McGovern but...

Ben Crane has had four top tens in the last seven years at Sawgrass. 22-1 for top ten and 9-1 top 20. Anyone?

No view at all, but we seem to have an empty book for The Players, it's great TV for 4 nights, & it'd be nice to have an interest, assuming we can find some perceived value.

He does seem to love the course, but his form is patchy to say the least - he has only had 2 top tens since he was 8th in this two years ago, one of them being a win.  So would top ten be the better bet?  He seems a bit like an old handicap sprinter who's either up for it or not.

edited bold bit

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Tonight's super league is between Hull KR and Wakefield, two of the leakiest defences around. With the weather fine I am expecting lots of points and Hull to win by 50-26 ish. Looking at the try scorer markets there is a clear bet for those with a Sky account and that is Mantellato to score anytime @ 10/11. However for Fred we must look elsewhere for a bet and that chap is Chris Riley of Wakefield. He has scored 7 tries this season, including a hat trick against these opponents earlier in the season. Wakefield are not a good team but tonight's match will give them an opportunity to score points that they have not had for some time.

Suggest £15 Riley ( aka Ming the Merciless ) to score anytime @ 6/4 with Ladbrokes.

[tikay]

Is that tache for real?

[MereNovice]

I've just searched the last 6 months on Everyday, & in that period, we did 5 of these Offers as follows. They'd all be for Fred, it's highly unlikely I would have done these off-thread.

If someone can work out how much we've set fire to in unrefunded offers, we can modify the reported returns via an adjustment.

I can't search back any further, so I guess we'll have to leave it at that.  



Draw @  15/8
£50.00  Single 05/05/2015 19:48:51 50.00 0.00
 
Draw @  21/10
£50.00  Single 05/05/2015 19:31:01 50.00 0.00





Draw @  12/5
£41.67  Single 24/02/2015 19:59:33 41.67 0.00
 
Man City @  3/1
£50.00  Single 24/02/2015 19:28:39 50.00 0.00





Draw @  12/5
£41.67  Single 01/01/2015 12:46:11 41.67 141.68

Man Utd @  19/20
£50.00  Single 01/01/2015 12:08:34 50.00 0.00





Draw @  5/2
£40.00  Single 29/12/2014 20:01:22 40.00 0.00
 
Liverpool @  8/11
£50.00  Single 29/12/2014 18:58:38 50.00 86.37




Chelsea @  3/5
£50.00  Single 22/12/2014 16:40:58 50.00 80.00
 
Draw @  9/4
£44.44  Single 21/12/2014 16:01:39 44.44 144.43

You can search your Bet365 account back as far as 01/01/14.

Also, the entries above don't prove anything about the offers.
Bet365 refund the losing bets as "Manual Adjustments" so you would need to look for these, not "Settled Bets".

fwiw, my A-Level maths report read "I have run out of superlatives".