Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Labour @ 4/1 seems to scream "value" if I read all that right.

Think we are on already though, so probably just watch & wait.

[TightEnd]

Labour @ 4/1 seems to scream "value" if I read all that right.

Think we are on already though, so probably just watch & wait.

it does but as someone just said to me "I've backed it at the current price but haven't staked it according to how good a bet it appears."

i only saw some private polling at the weekend, and that showed con to lab in england of around 4% and puts around 45-50 con marginals in the labour column

the market is telling us that this will not happen (given that SNP 50+ is already factored in and labour can't lose many more than already forecast in scotland)

[TightEnd]

and right on cue

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago

If final polls  in right then hard to see how CON wins most seats. At GE10 CON led LAB by 11.4% in England where today ICM has no CON lead

--


polls or markets? who is right? you decide.....

[TightEnd]

Matchbook.com ‏@TeamMatchBook 3m3 minutes ago

Just matched £25k on @UKLabour Most Seats at 5.0! Now in to 4.85.

 Simon Clare ‏@SiClare 28s28 seconds ago

Brisk business @Coral on the Election. Just laid £25k at 4/1 on Labour to win most seats and £12k at 5/6 on Tories to win 286 seats or less
0 retweets 0 favorites

[TightEnd]

Mere has been through the bet365 statements and these bets will now be taken as losses not refunds

The list of bets on which refunds were credited is:

10-Jun   TheDazzler   Bet365   10-Jun   Football   Euro2012: Spain v Italy   Spain   08/11   50   50   E   0   Bet365 £50 freebet offer   
18-Feb   TightEnd   Bet365   18-Feb   Football   Man C v Barcelona   Draw   12/05   41.67   41.67   N   0   Bet 365 offer refund if lose
22-Dec   Fred   bet365   22-Dec   football   stoke v chelsea   draw   5/1   20   20   V   0   bet365 offer money back if loss         
23-Feb   Fred   bet365   23-Feb   football   man c v barcelona   draw in play   12/5   41.66   41.66   N   0   Bet365 offer, in play refunded   
5/5/2015   thread   bet365   5/5/2015   football   juventus v real   draw   15/8   50   50   V   0   in play offer, refunded if loses

Total = 50 + 41.67 + 30 + 41.66 + 50 = £213.33.

which is almost identical to the doobs figure earlier

this will go against this month's figures

[tikay]

£213 is a relief, to be honest, so, in context, it barely alters our overall returns, but it means the numbers remain 100% tickity boo.

Thanks for sorting.

[TightEnd]

Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 23s23 seconds ago

Just taken the biggest bet yet on Labour most seats. £50,000 at 4/1, odds now 7/2.

(i'll shut up tomorrow, sorry)

[Doobs]

Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 23s23 seconds ago

Just taken the biggest bet yet on Labour most seats. £50,000 at 4/1, odds now 7/2.

(i'll shut up tomorrow, sorry)

All the 4/1 has gone, but you can still lay Conservatives at 1.25 on Betfair.  There is about 7k waiting so enough for everyone.

[Chompy]

Simon Clare ‏@SiClare 28s28 seconds ago

Brisk business @Coral on the Election. Just laid £25k at 4/1 on Labour to win most seats and £12k at 5/6 on Tories to win 286 seats or less
0 retweets 0 favorites

Oh Simon, you are a one!

[The Camel]

Keith how much do you want at 1/20? 

I had a restricted account that had received the same email but still got the £50 risk free in play refunds for a while after. Then one day I didn't get the refund, queried it, and they refrrered me to the email. 

I'd have loved to be a fly on the wall at 365 towers the day they realised they were giving £50 free bets to accounts restricted to 1%!

Somewhat surprising they give the 4/1 offer to these accts.

BTW if anyone has a restricted account and has a bash on the 4/1 thing (the limits are huge near the offer, so at some meetings even a 1% acct can get £25 ew on a 4/1 shot) - giving you a £50 free bet on the next race.

Even if your maximum is less than the amount of the free bet you've got, if you click on "MAX BET" and bet that, they round it up to the amount of the freebie.

[The Camel]

I wouldn't take too much notice of big bets on election day.

I would summise they are usually just hedges aginst big stock market or currency positions.

[tikay]

FEBRUARY FINAL ACCOUNT

Investments;

Camel, Oscars, Best Director, £40 (WON, returned £65.20)

redarmi, Lucky 15, £30 (returned £18.79)

Chompy, Celeb BB, £10 (lost)

Bobby1, Super Bowl, 1st Receiver, £50 (returned £92.50)

Camel, Super Bowl, MVP, £20 (lost)

Bobby1, Golf, £50 (lost)

Dubai, Super Bowl, Madonna, £100 (returned £150)

Bobby1, Super Bowl Shirt, £10 (lost)

MereNovice, RL 2nd half points, £50, (returned £86.56)

Bobby1, Gunter goals, £20, (lost)

Bazzaboy, Darts, Hamilton, £50 (lost)

maldini, Valencia to beat Stoke, £50 (returned £125)

Horneris, Stoke to beat Crawley T, £50 (returned £102.50)

Dubai, Mich State, £77 (returned £112)

Solaris, Niculescu Tennis, £50 (lost)

MereFence, Azarenkao, Tennis, £50 (lost)

Dubai, Baylor, NCCA, £40 (WON, returned £90)

Dubai, Villanova, £40 (lost)

Bobby1, Accenture match, Kim, £40 (lost)

Tighty, Napoli, CL, £50 @ 13/10, (returned £115)

Jaffa, NBA, 2 x £50 = £100, (lost, £100)

Mere, Bartoli, £50 (lost)

Tighty, RU6N, £20 (WON, returned £150)

Ralph, Fowler, £55 (lost)

ACE2M, Watney, £100, (won, returned £140)

Bobby, Molinari, £110 (won, returned £210)

Solaris, Tennis, £40, (won, returned £73.82)

ACE2M, Valencia v Stoke, £100, (won, returned £140)

ChipPrince, Barney 180's, Darts, £20 (lost)

ACE2M, England to beat Pakistan, £100 (lost),

MerePedant, Shrewsbury to beat Crawley, £50 (WON, returned £130))

ChipRich, Burnley, £50 (lost)

Floppy, Sunderland, £50 (lost)

Dubai, Azam Top Pakistan batsman, £20 (lost)

Dubai, Cherries, £50, (won @ 9/4, returned £162.50)

Claypole, Horse (£25, lost)

Ralph, Doggy, (£20, lost)

TOTAL STAKES = £1,812
__________________________________

Returns,

Lucky15, (redarmi) £18.79

Super Bowl Receiver, (Bobby1) £92.50

Super Bowl Madonna (Dubai) £150

Rugby League (MereNovice) £86.56

Valencia (maldini) £125

Stoke (Horneris) £102.50

Michigan NCCA (Dubai) £112

Napoli CL, (Tighty), £115

Watney, (ACE2M), £140

Molinari, (Bobby), £210

Hantuchova (Solaris), £73.82

Valencia (ACE2M), £140

Wales-England RU6N, (Tighty), £150

Oscars, (Camel), £65.20

Baylor (Dubai), £90

Shrewsbury (Mere), £130

Dog (Dubai), £162.50

TOTAL Returns = £1,963.87

____________________________________________


Total stakes = £1,812 , Total Returns = £1,964, = £152 profit 

February Profit = £152. 

BUMPED.

For (my) mild amusement, I stumbled across this today, whilst trying to sort out that Free Bet malarky.

We've come a long way since then - that was the first ever month's P & L for Fred.

Few memories there.

I'm not wholly convinced Mere's Spready & Tighty's Reports are that much better, are they?

I might just go find one of my early Daily Reports. Epic.

[mulhuzz]

I wouldn't take too much notice of big bets on election day.

I would summise they are usually just hedges aginst big stock market or currency positions.

why wouldn't they hedge those in the appropriate markets, though? Especially when the only outcome from coalition is shorting the pound...

[Ironside]

looking forward to tonight think i should get my first winning bet on FRED

even if its a loser just like my saints to get relegated it was atleast value

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league

Two draws tonight.  

Wade Barney and Power Ando.  £30 on each at 7/2 or bigger if you can get it.  Like the favs in the other two games and they should both be shorter imo so very little value in the draw price.  Think Ando should be fav against Taylor.