Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £483.75

Outstanding Bets £2631.32

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=24

A profit of £11 yesterday

+£44 Rosberg winning the Spanish Grand Prix

Click to see full-size image.

+£20 Grosjean in the points

+£22 Massa in the top six

losers

-£10 Winning distance just missed, margin was 17 seconds and was 11-15 near the close

-£10 Verstappen in the points, finished 11th overtaken with two laps to go

-£10 Ericcson points

-£15 Ricciardo top six, finished 7th

-£30 Chesterfield league one play offs, beaten 4-0 on aggregate by Preston

Click to see full-size image.

ongoing positions

F1

- Rosberg now 20 points behind Hamilton

Click to see full-size image.

- Vettel 55 points ahead of Ricciardo

- Kvyat 20 points behind Ricciardo  

- No points for Force India, they have 11 needing 77

- No points for McLaren, they have 0 needing 153. Button doubts they will score points this year in a car that is "scary to drive"

Click to see full-size image.

Football

- What might have been for the Aguero bet. A hat-trick yesterday took him to 25 for the season and we have 5/1 over 32. He missed 5 games injured shortly after we placed the bet



- Arsenal need to beat Swansea tonight to keep the w/o Chelsea bet on track

- Somehow the Burnley to finish bottom bet needs a result from the la;st two games from QPR to go above them

Cricket

- Rajasthan lost to Chennai by 12 runs in the IPL and qualification for the last four is now touch and go, will probably need to win their last group game. On a slow cracked pitch Chennai defended 157 with three spinners and some remarkable fielding

Click to see full-size image.

- In the county championship Middlesex 269 and Sussex 69 for 3 on a tough pitch at Hove. Derbyshire 343 against Northants, Lancashire lost the toss in Manchester and watched Gloucs score 322-7

NBA

With his third career post season buzzer beater (the most by any player over the last fifteen years) LeBron James lifed the Cavs to victory over the Bulls and level their play off series up 2-2

Click to see full-size image.

The LA Clippers beat the Houston Rockets 128-95 to go 3-1 up in their series

Click to see full-size image.

MLB

The Boston Red Sox beat Toronto 4-0

Click to see full-size image.

The Chicago White Sox beat the Reds 4-3 with a walk off home run from ordon Beckham in the bottom of the 9th

Click to see full-size image.

[Chompy]

Louis Walsh supposedly gone

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/x-factor/to-be-a-main-judge-in-2015

Chompy?

Surely Mel B 7/2?!

Cowell wants Nick Grimshaw according to today's Mirror. Not quoted though.

[TightEnd]

If you could have QPR at 20/1 for them to go down next season....

big squad issues..this lot weren't motivvated to play in the top flight...

what is the contract situation for the big wage players? relegation clauses?

FFP issues unresolved http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/29129536

isn't 20/1 a big price for what could happen?


is it likely that Ramsey will remain, or will someone like Mark Warburton be appointed?

[arbboy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/32685052

I read this last night and there is a big table of players who are out of contract.  Would expect a totally different QPR squad next season and find it hard to believe they will go down given their financial backing.

[BigAdz]

If you could have QPR at 20/1 for them to go down next season....

big squad issues..this lot weren't motivvated to play in the top flight...

what is the contract situation for the big wage players? relegation clauses?

FFP issues unresolved http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/29129536

isn't 20/1 a big price for what could happen?


is it likely that Ramsey will remain, or will someone like Mark Warburton be appointed?

They were discussing QPR on drive in, and sounds like all the over 30s were on one year contracts, and it sounded a fair few, so a mass clear out expected.

[BigAdz]

Were also discussing the likelihood of Tony F pulling out and causing potential bankruptcy.

Is 20-1 available?

[arbboy]

Were also discussing the likelihood of Tony F pulling out and causing potential bankruptcy.

Is 20-1 available?

That is more likely to cause relegation than actual playing issues imo.

[TightEnd]

Were also discussing the likelihood of Tony F pulling out and causing potential bankruptcy.

Is 20-1 available?

saw it somewhere, and now of course i cannot find it

i don't know much about the likely FFP fine, ownership, squad etc beyond what is reported..hence asking

[superwomble]

Can see tweets claiming Billy H has the 20/1, but can't see it on their site.

[arbboy]

Talking of relegation, given Hull are now big odds on to go down, there literally isn't a weak link left in the EPL if Hull go down.  ie every club left in the epl is a 'big' club and a lot of them left in the bottom half this year would consider themselves bigger than their current position and the smallest 3 clubs have gone down this year.

I briefly discussed this before when someone posted about Watford's record against the top half of the Championship this year being truely shocking.  Given the teams which are coming down i am amazed you can get even money with bald they are relegated next season.  Skybet go 8/13 which looks a lot more realistic.  I know they can play the system with loans from italy etc etc but the clubs coming up have never had it more against them staying up.  The relegation prices don't seem to have adjusted for this.

The market has to make up 300%, obviously for 3 places, and Watford and Bournemouth only take out 98% of the market currently.  Add in the play off winner (mboro or norwich in all likeliehood) who both have more experience of the epl and are bigger clubs in every sense than the previous 2.  You could easily make a case the play off winner should be a bigger price than the auto spots to be relegated.  Let's put them in at evens to go down as well to be prudent. That makes 150%.  I just don't see where the other 150% is being allocated to get to 300%.

The top 6 are a million to go down realistically barring financial irregularities.  Soton/Stoke/Swansea/West Ham/everton must be solid 20/1+ pokes to go down.  They won't all be but they should be.  So there is another 25% again being prudent as Everton/Soton will probably be closer to 100/1 than 20/1.  Palace/Villa/West Brom have all improved massively under new management.  Leics will improve for a 2nd season in the league/have money etc.  Which leaves Sunderland and Newcastle.  Both big clubs with huge spending power compared to the promoted clubs who will surely make suitable changes in the summer to ensure survival next season once they get a settled manager in place.  So we have to apply 125% to these 6 clubs to go down.  That makes each one under a 4/1 shot to go down.  I just can't see how you can make these clubs that short to go down collectively.  Villa for example could easily be a 12/1 shot to go down next season.  Pulis has never been close to taking a team down etc etc.  This implies there is far too little % in the promoted clubs to go straight back down.  Especially Watford and maybe Bournemouth.  

Looking to back Watford at evens if anyone thinks the opposite.  Don't really fancy tying my cash up for a year and letting bald earn the interest on it though!

Anyone got any thoughts on it.  I think they should be closer to 1/2 to go down than even money.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-season-relegation

Disclaimer - Before anyone pm's me saying i want a £2000/£100 on west ham to go down these prices are for discussion regarding the 'incorrect' prices for the teams coming up.  How skybet make Swansea virtually the same price to go down as Palace and West Brom is comical.  Wouldn't mind taking 5/6 about the swans in a season long match bet with either of those two next season.

[The Camel]

Talking of relegation, given Hull are now big odds on to go down, there literally isn't a weak link left in the EPL if Hull go down.  ie every club left in the epl is a 'big' club and a lot of them left in the bottom half this year would consider themselves bigger than their current position and the smallest 3 clubs have gone down this year.

I briefly discussed this before when someone posted about Watford's record against the top half of the Championship this year being truely shocking.  Given the teams which are coming down i am amazed you can get even money with bald they are relegated next season.  Skybet go 8/13 which looks a lot more realistic.  I know they can play the system with loans from italy etc etc but the clubs coming up have never had it more against them staying up.  The relegation prices don't seem to have adjusted for this.

The market has to make up 300%, obviously for 3 places, and Watford and Bournemouth only take out 98% of the market currently.  Add in the play off winner (mboro or norwich in all likeliehood) who both have more experience of the epl and are bigger clubs in every sense than the previous 2.  You could easily make a case the play off winner should be a bigger price than the auto spots to be relegated.  Let's put them in at evens to go down as well to be prudent. That makes 150%.  I just don't see where the other 150% is being allocated to get to 300%.

The top 6 are a million to go down realistically.  Soton/Stoke/Swansea/West Ham/everton must be solid 20/1+ pokes to go down.  They won't all be but they should be.  So there is another 25%.  Palace/Villa/West Brom have all improved massively under new management.  Leics will improve for a 2nd season in the league/have money etc.  Which leaves Sunderland and Newcastle.  Both big clubs with huge spending power compared to the promoted clubs who will surely make suitable changes in the summer to ensure survival next season once they get a settled manager in place.  So we have to apply 125% to these 6 clubs to go down.  That makes each one under a 4/1 shot to go down.  I just can't see how you can make these clubs that short to go down collectively.  Villa for example could easily be a 12/1 shot to go down next season.  Pulis has never been close to taking a team down etc etc.  This implies there is far too little % in the promoted clubs to go straight back down.  Especially Watford and maybe Bournemouth.  

Looking to back Watford at evens if anyone thinks the opposite.  Don't really fancy tying my cash up for a year and letting bald earn the interest on it though!

Anyone got any thoughts on it.  I think they should be closer to 1/2 to go down than even money.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-season-relegation

Disclaimer - Before anyone pm's me saying i want a £2000/£100 on west ham to go down these prices are for discussion regarding the 'incorrect' prices for the teams coming up.  How skybet make Swansea virtually the same price to go down as Palace and West Brom is comical.  Wouldn't mind taking 5/6 about the swans in a season long match bet with either of those two next season.

Palace are not a big club.

I'm 100% convinced they have outperformed their talent level in their squad.

I would guess their beat players will be tempted by offers to leave.

I'll be backing them for relegation if any fancy odds are floating around.

5/1 with Skybet I see. I will probably take that. But would be hopeful of getting 7/1 or so somewhere.

[arbboy]

Talking of relegation, given Hull are now big odds on to go down, there literally isn't a weak link left in the EPL if Hull go down.  ie every club left in the epl is a 'big' club and a lot of them left in the bottom half this year would consider themselves bigger than their current position and the smallest 3 clubs have gone down this year.

I briefly discussed this before when someone posted about Watford's record against the top half of the Championship this year being truely shocking.  Given the teams which are coming down i am amazed you can get even money with bald they are relegated next season.  Skybet go 8/13 which looks a lot more realistic.  I know they can play the system with loans from italy etc etc but the clubs coming up have never had it more against them staying up.  The relegation prices don't seem to have adjusted for this.

The market has to make up 300%, obviously for 3 places, and Watford and Bournemouth only take out 98% of the market currently.  Add in the play off winner (mboro or norwich in all likeliehood) who both have more experience of the epl and are bigger clubs in every sense than the previous 2.  You could easily make a case the play off winner should be a bigger price than the auto spots to be relegated.  Let's put them in at evens to go down as well to be prudent. That makes 150%.  I just don't see where the other 150% is being allocated to get to 300%.

The top 6 are a million to go down realistically.  Soton/Stoke/Swansea/West Ham/everton must be solid 20/1+ pokes to go down.  They won't all be but they should be.  So there is another 25%.  Palace/Villa/West Brom have all improved massively under new management.  Leics will improve for a 2nd season in the league/have money etc.  Which leaves Sunderland and Newcastle.  Both big clubs with huge spending power compared to the promoted clubs who will surely make suitable changes in the summer to ensure survival next season once they get a settled manager in place.  So we have to apply 125% to these 6 clubs to go down.  That makes each one under a 4/1 shot to go down.  I just can't see how you can make these clubs that short to go down collectively.  Villa for example could easily be a 12/1 shot to go down next season.  Pulis has never been close to taking a team down etc etc.  This implies there is far too little % in the promoted clubs to go straight back down.  Especially Watford and maybe Bournemouth.  

Looking to back Watford at evens if anyone thinks the opposite.  Don't really fancy tying my cash up for a year and letting bald earn the interest on it though!

Anyone got any thoughts on it.  I think they should be closer to 1/2 to go down than even money.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-season-relegation

Disclaimer - Before anyone pm's me saying i want a £2000/£100 on west ham to go down these prices are for discussion regarding the 'incorrect' prices for the teams coming up.  How skybet make Swansea virtually the same price to go down as Palace and West Brom is comical.  Wouldn't mind taking 5/6 about the swans in a season long match bet with either of those two next season.

Palace are not a big club.

I'm 100% convinced they have outperformed their talent level in their squad.

I would guess their beat players will be tempted by offers to leave.

I'll be backing them for relegation if any fancy odds are floating around.

5/1 is available already.  What is your idea of fancy prices?  What price would you be happy laying Palace at (on credit to assume no cash flow issues)?

Going back to my discussion regarding the distribution of the 300% what are your thoughts on the prices the 3 teams to come up should be?  They take out around 150% of the book.  If you backed them all to go down to level stakes you make need only 1 to go down (or none obviously but that would be a big price) to do your cash.  You make as much as you lose for 1 if 2 go down.  I can't ever imagine wanting to be on the under 1.5 of those teams to go down at these prices.

[The Camel]

Talking of relegation, given Hull are now big odds on to go down, there literally isn't a weak link left in the EPL if Hull go down.  ie every club left in the epl is a 'big' club and a lot of them left in the bottom half this year would consider themselves bigger than their current position and the smallest 3 clubs have gone down this year.

I briefly discussed this before when someone posted about Watford's record against the top half of the Championship this year being truely shocking.  Given the teams which are coming down i am amazed you can get even money with bald they are relegated next season.  Skybet go 8/13 which looks a lot more realistic.  I know they can play the system with loans from italy etc etc but the clubs coming up have never had it more against them staying up.  The relegation prices don't seem to have adjusted for this.

The market has to make up 300%, obviously for 3 places, and Watford and Bournemouth only take out 98% of the market currently.  Add in the play off winner (mboro or norwich in all likeliehood) who both have more experience of the epl and are bigger clubs in every sense than the previous 2.  You could easily make a case the play off winner should be a bigger price than the auto spots to be relegated.  Let's put them in at evens to go down as well to be prudent. That makes 150%.  I just don't see where the other 150% is being allocated to get to 300%.

The top 6 are a million to go down realistically.  Soton/Stoke/Swansea/West Ham/everton must be solid 20/1+ pokes to go down.  They won't all be but they should be.  So there is another 25%.  Palace/Villa/West Brom have all improved massively under new management.  Leics will improve for a 2nd season in the league/have money etc.  Which leaves Sunderland and Newcastle.  Both big clubs with huge spending power compared to the promoted clubs who will surely make suitable changes in the summer to ensure survival next season once they get a settled manager in place.  So we have to apply 125% to these 6 clubs to go down.  That makes each one under a 4/1 shot to go down.  I just can't see how you can make these clubs that short to go down collectively.  Villa for example could easily be a 12/1 shot to go down next season.  Pulis has never been close to taking a team down etc etc.  This implies there is far too little % in the promoted clubs to go straight back down.  Especially Watford and maybe Bournemouth.  

Looking to back Watford at evens if anyone thinks the opposite.  Don't really fancy tying my cash up for a year and letting bald earn the interest on it though!

Anyone got any thoughts on it.  I think they should be closer to 1/2 to go down than even money.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-season-relegation

Disclaimer - Before anyone pm's me saying i want a £2000/£100 on west ham to go down these prices are for discussion regarding the 'incorrect' prices for the teams coming up.  How skybet make Swansea virtually the same price to go down as Palace and West Brom is comical.  Wouldn't mind taking 5/6 about the swans in a season long match bet with either of those two next season.

Palace are not a big club.

I'm 100% convinced they have outperformed their talent level in their squad.

I would guess their beat players will be tempted by offers to leave.

I'll be backing them for relegation if any fancy odds are floating around.

5/1 is available already.  What is your idea of fancy prices?  What price would you be happy laying Palace at (on credit to assume no cash flow issues)?

I'll take 5/1 if no bigger is available when all the firms go up. But I'm hoping for 7/1 or so.

[BigAdz]

Robin been settled as a Winner by Betfair!!!!

Nice one Bird person(Chompy iirc)!!

[DungBeetle]

Talking of relegation, given Hull are now big odds on to go down, there literally isn't a weak link left in the EPL if Hull go down.  ie every club left in the epl is a 'big' club and a lot of them left in the bottom half this year would consider themselves bigger than their current position and the smallest 3 clubs have gone down this year.

I briefly discussed this before when someone posted about Watford's record against the top half of the Championship this year being truely shocking.  Given the teams which are coming down i am amazed you can get even money with bald they are relegated next season.  Skybet go 8/13 which looks a lot more realistic.  I know they can play the system with loans from italy etc etc but the clubs coming up have never had it more against them staying up.  The relegation prices don't seem to have adjusted for this.

The market has to make up 300%, obviously for 3 places, and Watford and Bournemouth only take out 98% of the market currently.  Add in the play off winner (mboro or norwich in all likeliehood) who both have more experience of the epl and are bigger clubs in every sense than the previous 2.  You could easily make a case the play off winner should be a bigger price than the auto spots to be relegated.  Let's put them in at evens to go down as well to be prudent. That makes 150%.  I just don't see where the other 150% is being allocated to get to 300%.

The top 6 are a million to go down realistically barring financial irregularities.  Soton/Stoke/Swansea/West Ham/everton must be solid 20/1+ pokes to go down.  They won't all be but they should be.  So there is another 25% again being prudent as Everton/Soton will probably be closer to 100/1 than 20/1.  Palace/Villa/West Brom have all improved massively under new management.  Leics will improve for a 2nd season in the league/have money etc.  Which leaves Sunderland and Newcastle.  Both big clubs with huge spending power compared to the promoted clubs who will surely make suitable changes in the summer to ensure survival next season once they get a settled manager in place.  So we have to apply 125% to these 6 clubs to go down.  That makes each one under a 4/1 shot to go down.  I just can't see how you can make these clubs that short to go down collectively.  Villa for example could easily be a 12/1 shot to go down next season.  Pulis has never been close to taking a team down etc etc.  This implies there is far too little % in the promoted clubs to go straight back down.  Especially Watford and maybe Bournemouth.  

Looking to back Watford at evens if anyone thinks the opposite.  Don't really fancy tying my cash up for a year and letting bald earn the interest on it though!

Anyone got any thoughts on it.  I think they should be closer to 1/2 to go down than even money.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-season-relegation

Disclaimer - Before anyone pm's me saying i want a £2000/£100 on west ham to go down these prices are for discussion regarding the 'incorrect' prices for the teams coming up.  How skybet make Swansea virtually the same price to go down as Palace and West Brom is comical.  Wouldn't mind taking 5/6 about the swans in a season long match bet with either of those two next season.

I think you should wait to see what the squad looks like by end of June even if it means you have to take a slightly shorter price.  The Pozzos track record in squad building is very good.  The squad won't look like QPR and there will be very few of those experienced premier league relegation warhorses, but you might be surprised at who they manage to bring in.

I take your point though that poor form against the higher teams last season is a concern but there were a couple of 1st minute red cards involved.  Personally of the 3 times we have come up this is the most confident I have been of staying up.