Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Maths question for Doobs (or anyone else more intelligent than myself!).  This is frying my brain.  Help needed.

Right.  Top NE club.  Assume all my calcs are correct for what i am going to say to keep it simple.  I know there are potential GD issues with this which i have ignored for now as they are not that important in most spots.

If Sunderland lose tonight to Arsenal the following prices to 100% for this market per my calcs are:

Sunderland 43%
Newcastle 48.4%
Hull 8.6%

If sunderland draw tonight (16.7% chance) the prices to 100% for this market per my calcs are:

Sunderland 61.8%
Newcastle 38.2%

If Sunderland win tonight (8.3% chance) Sunderland have won this market prior to Sunday's games.

What are the prices of each of the 3 teams in the top NE market pre tonight's game assuming my calcs?

[Shrimper1]

One for the short odds boys......

No good for fred (or myself) but SCUY have Lionel messi at 1/16 to still be at barca after the summer transfer window closes

Obviously with bets like this hard to break down it down and analyse as we would on other things and quantify the likelihood of him staying/leaving but this price looks absolutely huge,  obviously a drawback of having to wait 3 months to collect but you certainly won't be getting 6% in the bank!

Any views?

Link please. What is his contract situation?

http://www.skybet.com/football/transfer-specials/event/17240840

Got my £5 on.

Can't get on, but this seems a fairly daft bet.  There have been a few rumours he might go already this year and he is more likely to transfer than not before the end of his career?  So to me it just seems about the right price and you get more money than the bank because there is a bigger likelihood you aren't getting your money back.  Just because something is very likely doesn't make it a certainty.  

It feels different to the Arbboy short things anyway.  

Fair enough a difference of opinion but that is the thing about bets like this, they are very subjective. These rumours were simply a case of him following chelsea on twitter, admittedly that would have been done for a reason, ie send barca a message but nothing more to it than that and there certainly hasn't been any firm speculation as far as I can see. What likelihood there is of him leaving before the end of career is fairly irrelevant IMO. For what it's worth I think he is massively odds against to ever leave at his 'peak' and play for a psg, chelsea, city etc although a move back home or USA is probably likely at end of career. Even if the chances of him playing for another big club are greater than I think, this does not necceserily impact upon the chances of it happening this year, and making it a bad bet.

Of course not a certainty and appreciate it may lose (speaking as someone who lumped 2/11 no overall govt majority, although still that was one of the best bets I have had in last couple of years) but confident will lose significantly less often than the odds suggest.

[DungBeetle]

Does anybody like Derby next season in Championship?  It's Skybet so we can't do it for Fred, and market is not fully formed.

I can't help feeling their season was trashed because their strikers got injured at the wrong time and by the time they returned they were in a tailspin.  I thought they were so impressive before March.  

They are 11-1 to win the league and 10/3 to be promoted.   Market not fully formed (due to 3 of the runners not being known) but I can't see them going off as long as that, especially after a few signings.  

Thoughts?

What's going to happen to the gaffer?  Bent/Hughes?  Does seem big though assuming Hull come down with the other 2 'small' clubs from the EPL as a 'bigger' club in Mboro/Norwich leave the championship via the play offs.

As a sideline i am always amazed no firm offers 1/4 1,2,3,4 ew terms on the lower leagues.  24 runner hcaps effectively (esp the championship which is going to be 10/1 the field)

McClaren seems to be staying as far as I can see.   Transfers are an unknown of course, but McLaren seems to be putting a good spin on them having a good summer break after 2 years of seemingly back to back promotion matches.  I like them over the 3 relegated teams (assuming it is Hull).  I guess the loser of the playoff final will go off as jollies?

I think Derby will go off about 7-1 in the betting and 2nd favs.

[arbboy]

One for the short odds boys......

No good for fred (or myself) but SCUY have Lionel messi at 1/16 to still be at barca after the summer transfer window closes

Obviously with bets like this hard to break down it down and analyse as we would on other things and quantify the likelihood of him staying/leaving but this price looks absolutely huge,  obviously a drawback of having to wait 3 months to collect but you certainly won't be getting 6% in the bank!

Any views?

Link please. What is his contract situation?

http://www.skybet.com/football/transfer-specials/event/17240840

Got my £5 on.

Can't get on, but this seems a fairly daft bet.  There have been a few rumours he might go already this year and he is more likely to transfer than not before the end of his career?  So to me it just seems about the right price and you get more money than the bank because there is a bigger likelihood you aren't getting your money back.  Just because something is very likely doesn't make it a certainty.  

It feels different to the Arbboy short things anyway.  

Fair enough a difference of opinion but that is the thing about bets like this, they are very subjective. These rumours were simply a case of him following chelsea on twitter, admittedly that would have been done for a reason, ie send barca a message but nothing more to it than that and there certainly hasn't been any firm speculation as far as I can see. What likelihood there is of him leaving before the end of career is fairly irrelevant IMO. For what it's worth I think he is massively odds against to ever leave at his 'peak' and play for a psg, chelsea, city etc although a move back home or USA is probably likely at end of career. Even if the chances of him playing for another big club are greater than I think, this does not necceserily impact upon the chances of it happening this year, and making it a bad bet.

Of course not a certainty and appreciate it may lose (speaking as someone who lumped 2/11 no overall govt majority, although still that was one of the best bets I have had in last couple of years) but confident will lose significantly less often than the odds suggest.

I wouldn't be remotely interested in backing him at 16/1 to play for another club by 3rd September 2015 tbh.  Therefore i am sort of tempted to say it seems value esp if they win the champs league and la liga this year with his potent 3 way strike force.  It is hardly likely he can leave to play for a better team next season.

[arbboy]

Does anybody like Derby next season in Championship?  It's Skybet so we can't do it for Fred, and market is not fully formed.

I can't help feeling their season was trashed because their strikers got injured at the wrong time and by the time they returned they were in a tailspin.  I thought they were so impressive before March.  

They are 11-1 to win the league and 10/3 to be promoted.   Market not fully formed (due to 3 of the runners not being known) but I can't see them going off as long as that, especially after a few signings.  

Thoughts?

What's going to happen to the gaffer?  Bent/Hughes?  Does seem big though assuming Hull come down with the other 2 'small' clubs from the EPL as a 'bigger' club in Mboro/Norwich leave the championship via the play offs.

As a sideline i am always amazed no firm offers 1/4 1,2,3,4 ew terms on the lower leagues.  24 runner hcaps effectively (esp the championship which is going to be 10/1 the field)

McClaren seems to be staying as far as I can see.   Transfers are an unknown of course, but McLaren seems to be putting a good spin on them having a good summer break after 2 years of seemingly back to back promotion matches.  I like them over the 3 relegated teams (assuming it is Hull).  I guess the loser of the playoff final will go off as jollies?

I think Derby will go off about 7-1 in the betting and 2nd favs.

Can't see anyone going off 7/1 for next season unless Sunderland/Newcastle come down tbh.  Would happily lay 7/1 about any other team barring those two.

[DMorgan]

Just for reference they went off at 8/1 at the start of this season

[TightEnd]

with Ramsey being appointed QPR head coach this morning, Sky have gone up with some 2015-2016 relegation prices

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/next-season-relegation?dcmp=twt1

waiting for the wm hill 20/1 which was PR'ed but never offered as a live price

[DungBeetle]

Does anybody like Derby next season in Championship?  It's Skybet so we can't do it for Fred, and market is not fully formed.

I can't help feeling their season was trashed because their strikers got injured at the wrong time and by the time they returned they were in a tailspin.  I thought they were so impressive before March.  

They are 11-1 to win the league and 10/3 to be promoted.   Market not fully formed (due to 3 of the runners not being known) but I can't see them going off as long as that, especially after a few signings.  

Thoughts?

What's going to happen to the gaffer?  Bent/Hughes?  Does seem big though assuming Hull come down with the other 2 'small' clubs from the EPL as a 'bigger' club in Mboro/Norwich leave the championship via the play offs.

As a sideline i am always amazed no firm offers 1/4 1,2,3,4 ew terms on the lower leagues.  24 runner hcaps effectively (esp the championship which is going to be 10/1 the field)

McClaren seems to be staying as far as I can see.   Transfers are an unknown of course, but McLaren seems to be putting a good spin on them having a good summer break after 2 years of seemingly back to back promotion matches.  I like them over the 3 relegated teams (assuming it is Hull).  I guess the loser of the playoff final will go off as jollies?

I think Derby will go off about 7-1 in the betting and 2nd favs.

Can't see anyone going off 7/1 for next season unless Sunderland/Newcastle come down tbh.  Would happily lay 7/1 about any other team barring those two.

Maybe 7/1 is too optimistic.

This season feels different to last though.  We had Derby, Wigan (!), Cardiff, Fulham (!) , Norwich all between 8-1 and 11-1 best price.  Who would the 5 front runners be this year?  Hull, Derby, loser of playoff final.  Burnley maybe? 

I'm struggling after that.  Feels like a weaker renewal.

I think Derby could be jollies thinking about it.

[DungBeetle]

with Ramsey being appointed QPR head coach this morning, Sky have gone up with some 2015-2016 relegation prices

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/next-season-relegation?dcmp=twt1

waiting for the wm hill 20/1 which was PR'ed but never offered as a live price

Different jurisdictions, but does Platini faffing around with the FFP rules making them weaker yesterday, strengthen QPR's hand when it comes to the fine the League want to impose?

[arbboy]

Forest, Leeds, Blackburn, Wolves, Brentford, Ipswich, much improved Bham 2nd half of last season, plus all 3 promoted teams all big runners/will go off too short.  Hull will surely be favs if they keep Bruce in charge with the parachute cash?

I would happily bet 8/1 the field if i was a layer.  What price would you make Sunderland and/or Newcastle if they come down?

[TightEnd]

with Ramsey being appointed QPR head coach this morning, Sky have gone up with some 2015-2016 relegation prices

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/next-season-relegation?dcmp=twt1

waiting for the wm hill 20/1 which was PR'ed but never offered as a live price

Different jurisdictions, but does Platini faffing around with the FFP rules making them weaker yesterday, strengthen QPR's hand when it comes to the fine the League want to impose?

no idea yet


another one for you to look at. way too early of course because of the high turnover of players and uncertainty about budgets but Pompey are 6/1 for league 2 2015-2016. i know from my own pocket that they finished 16th this year and year after year are priced to storm the league..big club etc etc

no sign of it yet

next season's league two has notts county, luton, orient, plymouth, crawley etc

got to be something there to oppose a 6/1 favourite with

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/next-season-winner

[DungBeetle]

I think Forest/Blackburn have embargoes, so unless you like their current squads can't see them being near the head of the market.  Wolves perhaps depending on transfer activity.  Brentford/Ipswich will go off 16/1 shots imo.  Birmingham/Leeds 25-1?

Bristol City might be an interesting runner as they seem to be thinking big with their stadium expansion.

[mulhuzz]

I think Forest/Blackburn have embargoes, so unless you like their current squads can't see them being near the head of the market.  Wolves perhaps depending on transfer activity.  Brentford/Ipswich will go off 16/1 shots imo.  Birmingham/Leeds 25-1?

Bristol City might be an interesting runner as they seem to be thinking big with their stadium expansion.

further note on Forest, their GK and one of their CB headed to Newcastle to join Forest in Championship Football next year.

[DungBeetle]

with Ramsey being appointed QPR head coach this morning, Sky have gone up with some 2015-2016 relegation prices

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/next-season-relegation?dcmp=twt1

waiting for the wm hill 20/1 which was PR'ed but never offered as a live price

Different jurisdictions, but does Platini faffing around with the FFP rules making them weaker yesterday, strengthen QPR's hand when it comes to the fine the League want to impose?

no idea yet


another one for you to look at. way too early of course because of the high turnover of players and uncertainty about budgets but Pompey are 6/1 for league 2 2015-2016. i know from my own pocket that they finished 16th this year and year after year are priced to storm the league..big club etc etc

no sign of it yet

next season's league two has notts county, luton, orient, plymouth, crawley etc

got to be something there to oppose a 6/1 favourite with

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/next-season-winner

Not a price to get worked up about, but Plymouth seem to be building nicely year on year.  I think they'll be in L1 in the next season or so.

Pompey price reminds me of when Hull were down there for a few years 10 years back.  They went off blistering favourites each season and fell flat several times.

[DungBeetle]

Forest, Leeds, Blackburn, Wolves, Brentford, Ipswich, much improved Bham 2nd half of last season, plus all 3 promoted teams all big runners/will go off too short.  Hull will surely be favs if they keep Bruce in charge with the parachute cash?

I would happily bet 8/1 the field if i was a layer.  What price would you make Sunderland and/or Newcastle if they come down?

Sunderland or Newcastle 5/1 maybe?