Tips for Tikay

[mulhuzz]

and as for nufc, I can write the two press releases for you now:

'John Carver has managed to retain the club's premiership position and has the fully backing of the board to take the team forward in the new season with the aim of consolidating our premiership position'

'John Carver took over the team at a difficult point, and whilst the club are disappointed to have been relegated, we believe John is the right man for the job and has the fully backing of the board to take the team forward in the new season with the aim of returning to the Premiership at the first time of asking'

I might be a cynic, but I'd be very bullish on Carver.

I can see why he would appoint Carver this season, but there seems zero chance that he stays as manager.  You could do a cost of coach vs cost of relegation calc and you aren't ever employing Carver.  When he was appointed this year the true price must have been 50/1, next year it would be small single figures with him staying.  And that huge bag of cash in his back pocket doesn't suggest Ashley is a complete dimwit.

he doesn't understand football though. he'll probably think it's the players fault/we've been unlucky/etc

it's obvious you shouldn't employ Carver. That doesn't mean it won't happen!

[Doobs]

and as for nufc, I can write the two press releases for you now:

'John Carver has managed to retain the club's premiership position and has the fully backing of the board to take the team forward in the new season with the aim of consolidating our premiership position'

'John Carver took over the team at a difficult point, and whilst the club are disappointed to have been relegated, we believe John is the right man for the job and has the fully backing of the board to take the team forward in the new season with the aim of returning to the Premiership at the first time of asking'

I might be a cynic, but I'd be very bullish on Carver.

I can see why he would appoint Carver this season, but there seems zero chance that he stays as manager.  You could do a cost of coach vs cost of relegation calc and you aren't ever employing Carver.  When he was appointed this year the true price must have been 50/1, next year it would be small single figures with him staying.  And that huge bag of cash in his back pocket doesn't suggest Ashley is a complete dimwit.

he doesn't understand football though. he'll probably think it's the players fault/we've been unlucky/etc

it's obvious you shouldn't employ Carver. That doesn't mean it won't happen!

He definitely understands money, and that is why emplying Carver when he did was understandable.  There seems no logical reason to employ him next year.  The cost of a manager is a very small proportion of the cost of relegation. 

Whether he understands football would be an interesting debate.  I think he has a better understanding than many of the fans, but maybe you can restart the debate this on the Newcastle thread.   Seems likely to clog up this one.

Of course Carver could have just been dreadfully unlucky, and Sherwood could be just a luckbox, but that is another debate again.

[arbboy]

and as for nufc, I can write the two press releases for you now:

'John Carver has managed to retain the club's premiership position and has the fully backing of the board to take the team forward in the new season with the aim of consolidating our premiership position'

'John Carver took over the team at a difficult point, and whilst the club are disappointed to have been relegated, we believe John is the right man for the job and has the fully backing of the board to take the team forward in the new season with the aim of returning to the Premiership at the first time of asking'

I might be a cynic, but I'd be very bullish on Carver.

I can see why he would appoint Carver this season, but there seems zero chance that he stays as manager.  You could do a cost of coach vs cost of relegation calc and you aren't ever employing Carver.  When he was appointed this year the true price must have been 50/1, next year it would be small single figures with him staying.  And that huge bag of cash in his back pocket doesn't suggest Ashley is a complete dimwit.

he doesn't understand football though. he'll probably think it's the players fault/we've been unlucky/etc

it's obvious you shouldn't employ Carver. That doesn't mean it won't happen!

He definitely understands money, and that is why emplying Carver when he did was understandable.  There seems no logical reason to employ him next year.  The cost of a manager is a very small proportion of the cost of relegation.  

Whether he understands football would be an interesting debate.  I think he has a better understanding than many of the fans, but maybe you can restart the debate this on the Newcastle thread.   Seems likely to clog up this one.

Of course Carver could have just been dreadfully unlucky, and Sherwood could be just a luckbox, but that is another debate again.

The Newcastle slump down the table must have cost Ashley circa £10m in league finishing position payments for this season alone since Carver was in charge assuming they would have stayed where they were roughly for the rest of the season.  That alone would mean he has made a terrible decision employing Carver.  Obviously the same could have happening under a different gaffer etc.

Just found a link for this.

http://www.totalsportek.com/football/premier-league-prize-money-table-2015/

[DungBeetle]

I think Forest/Blackburn have embargoes, so unless you like their current squads can't see them being near the head of the market.  Wolves perhaps depending on transfer activity.  Brentford/Ipswich will go off 16/1 shots imo.  Birmingham/Leed



Bristol City might be an interesting runner as they seem to be thinking big with their stadium expansion.

Will be all over Brizzle on the handicap next season, oi oi!

Aarons Wilbrahamsss ftw

Think their is a massive price on a team to go down if the sky bet league 1 tissue price is correct

Wait for more firms though

Will wait for your thoughts later in the summer, but my first impression of the odds was that I couldn't understand why Millwall were at the head of the market from looking at their retained list.

[Doobs]

and as for nufc, I can write the two press releases for you now:

'John Carver has managed to retain the club's premiership position and has the fully backing of the board to take the team forward in the new season with the aim of consolidating our premiership position'

'John Carver took over the team at a difficult point, and whilst the club are disappointed to have been relegated, we believe John is the right man for the job and has the fully backing of the board to take the team forward in the new season with the aim of returning to the Premiership at the first time of asking'

I might be a cynic, but I'd be very bullish on Carver.

I can see why he would appoint Carver this season, but there seems zero chance that he stays as manager.  You could do a cost of coach vs cost of relegation calc and you aren't ever employing Carver.  When he was appointed this year the true price must have been 50/1, next year it would be small single figures with him staying.  And that huge bag of cash in his back pocket doesn't suggest Ashley is a complete dimwit.

he doesn't understand football though. he'll probably think it's the players fault/we've been unlucky/etc

it's obvious you shouldn't employ Carver. That doesn't mean it won't happen!

He definitely understands money, and that is why emplying Carver when he did was understandable.  There seems no logical reason to employ him next year.  The cost of a manager is a very small proportion of the cost of relegation. 

Whether he understands football would be an interesting debate.  I think he has a better understanding than many of the fans, but maybe you can restart the debate this on the Newcastle thread.   Seems likely to clog up this one.

Of course Carver could have just been dreadfully unlucky, and Sherwood could be just a luckbox, but that is another debate again.

The Newcastle slump down the table must have cost Ashley circa £10m in league finishing position payments for this season alone since Carver was in charge assuming they would have stayed where they were roughly for the rest of the season.  That alone would mean he has made a terrible decision employing Carver.  Obviously the same could have happening under a different gaffer etc.

Well obviously, but that is with hindsight.  At the time if his chosen target wasn't available, it could have made sense.  It makes no sense now.

Ofc Having the GOAT in charge previously should be included in your calculation.  So assuming they could only get someone with half as much talent as the GOAT at the time, that, would mean they were on course for losing £5m regardless?

 

[horseplayer]

not related but this is rather innovative for county cricket

http://live.trentbridge.co.uk/#stream

[Marky147]

I'll love it if Ashley keeps Carver at the helm

[arbboy]

I'll love it if Ashley keeps Carver at the helm

If Newcastle stay up and Carver is confirmed as gaffer for next season what price will Newcastle be to go down?

[Marky147]

I'll love it if Ashley keeps Carver at the helm

If Newcastle stay up and Carver is confirmed as gaffer for next season what price will Newcastle be to go down?

Probably similar to Messi's odds of staying at Barca

[Doobs]

I'll love it if Ashley keeps Carver at the helm

If Newcastle stay up and Carver is confirmed as gaffer for next season what price will Newcastle be to go down?

I'd certainly pile in at 10/1, so it should be shorter? 

[Chompy]

My mate who is Cotterills best man, the same guy I mentioned pre season who informed me what a bet they were, suggested that the 5/4 Brizzle to top half was the way he was playing next year.

Thing is, I can't find where he put the bet on, and he is away this week!

Can't believe this price was ever available, or will be tbh. If they're 5-4 to finish top half, they'd be 4-7 to finish bottom half. That seems very hard to imagine given their position in the win market. Flip the prices imo.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/not-to-finish-top-10

Small bit of juice in the 4/11 WH.  Recommend £55 to win £20 at vc.  Assume we can still get on there?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-10-finish

likewise the 1/2 Everton to top 10 ladbrokes is the same.  £50 to win £25.

My calcs came out to 4/9 3/1 12/1 on the top 10 market to 100%.

[mulhuzz]

I'll love it if Ashley keeps Carver at the helm

If Newcastle stay up and Carver is confirmed as gaffer for next season what price will Newcastle be to go down?

I'd certainly pile in at 10/1, so it should be shorter? 

no dpoubt he'd make a change in January though, so 10/1 prolly about right imo

[arbboy]

Other ante post value to mop up (as usual it is usually the shorties providing the value - fav/longshot bias of the greening up boys giving it away) from calcs i have done on top of the QPR to finish bottom and the top 10 stuff.  Might as well share it now i am fully on.

Liverpool top 5 on betfair i make 2/7 to 100% (should be able to get 1/3 maybe 4/11)  Hull 1/4 to go down to 100% (should be able to get 2/7).  Man City to finish top 2 is 1/12 to 100% (should be able to get a chunk at 1/9 on bf).

Soton to finish top 6 i make 4/1 to 100% you should be able to lay sub 7/2 on bf.  For the sicko's lolpool are a 1/40 poke but you should be able to get 1.04 on bf on the same market.

Nothing huge edge wise but all warrant a small stakes interest to nick a couple of %.

[arbboy]

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsMeeting.aspx?id=129699

all inside at crayford this afternoon on first four races if anyone is looking for a potential angle.