Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

This lebron porn is good shit!

It's like watching Keegan's Newcastle, though... You're just waiting for the collapse, and they almost cave in the last 1/4!

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £178.01

Outstanding Bets £1493.12

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=25

No bets completed yesterday

ongoing positions

the Cavs beat GSW 96-91 to go 2-1 up in the best of 7 series

once more, lebron produced. so far this series

Lebron James Pts-Rbds-Asts

Game 1: 44-8-6
Game 2: 39-16-11
Game 3: 40-12-8

He has scored or assisted on 68.7% of all Cavs points in the first 3 games

meaning

Click to see full-size image.

all in all, it all looks encouraging if not a...



game 4 is tomorrow night

cricket

england's new odi team produced a thrilling performance to win the first game

the bad news, taylor was not picked, so is already unlikely to win the top run scorer bet after buttler and root took NZ to the cleaners



the good news, Boult took 4 wickets and leads by 2 and is undroppable





of course with new regulations, bigger bats, smaller boundaries etc the odi game is changing. there have been 16 ODI scores of 400 - and five of them have been in 2015 alone. 14 sixes yesterday was an England record in an ODI innings

in the county game Yorkshire beat middlesex by 4 wickets, chasing 213, bairstows innings first up the crucial differnece between the sides. middlesex now 3rd approaching the half way point of the season

derbyshire beat kent in division 2, to go 4th, just outside the each way spots



Lancashire are defending 225 to try to beat Gloucs today to retain their clear weater at the top of the division 2 table. brown scored 56 in the lancs second innings but is still miles behind ashwell prince for top scorer, who has 835 runs so far this season

mlb

chicago ws won again



meanwhile boston offered no run support for their pitcher and fell to the orioles

[arbboy]

This lebron porn is good shit!

It's like watching Keegan's Newcastle, though... You're just waiting for the collapse, and they almost cave in the last 1/4!

The other way to look at it is they should be 3-0 up!  The Cavs defense last night was sensational.

With regard to the MVP i am struggling to see how lebron won't win it even if the Cavs lose now.  If he puts up one more game like the first 3 he must be weighed in otherwise the trophy needs to be renamed 'the mvp on the winning side in the finals' not the 'finals mvp'.

[Marky147]

This lebron porn is good shit!

It's like watching Keegan's Newcastle, though... You're just waiting for the collapse, and they almost cave in the last 1/4!

The other way to look at it is they should be 3-0 up!  The Cavs defense last night was sensational.

With regard to the MVP i am struggling to see how lebron won't win it even if the Cavs lose now.  If he puts up one more game like the first 3 he must be weighed in otherwise the trophy needs to be renamed 'the mvp on the winning side in the finals' not the 'finals mvp'.

Curry has been like a deer in the headlights, which is superb viewing!

[doubleup]

Hi Kush

Thats a very brave one.

He is Austrian, and I can't see the flag bearer downing tools so easily in his home Open.

He is probably in the form of his life. His record over the last five years is a win, a second and a fifth, and he holds the four round record.

He will probably shoot two 80s now, but I think the only way Bernd will miss the cut is RaLph or double tip him on the golf thread!!!

Well we do put up our selections before the event.  Why don't you try it?

 

[BigAdz]

Hi Kush

Thats a very brave one.

He is Austrian, and I can't see the flag bearer downing tools so easily in his home Open.

He is probably in the form of his life. His record over the last five years is a win, a second and a fifth, and he holds the four round record.

He will probably shoot two 80s now, but I think the only way Bernd will miss the cut is RaLph or double tip him on the golf thread!!!

Well we do put up our selections before the event.  Why don't you try it?

 

Ouch. Cut to the quick!

[TightEnd]

Hello all

we have a couple of big events in the next ten days

1 Royal Ascot

2 US Open golf

no doubt there will be offers around for both events, and this might be a bit early

we also have some regular people in vegas and not on so much

even so, open for ideas on both over the next week please


i took a look at the us open. being held at chambers bay in seattle which looks like a links on steroids. has never held a professional golf tournament, and is only 8 years old

do we think that this (unfamiliarity with the course, unusual course) might produce one of those high price winners that you occasionally get in a major?

it doesn't look that long a course (i think, happy to be corrected) but if you plugged in

a) accuracy off the tee (the rough looks horrible, long fescue grass)
b) chipping, scrambling saves (plenty of sand around)
c) anything else you think is apprpriate

for this type of course, who do we get for a shortlist?

[TightEnd]

just looking at tuesday at ascot

St James' Palace, King's Stand, Queen Anne & Coventry -

looks a fantastic day of racing?

gleneagles in the st james palace http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/st-james-palace-stakes/winner

a 2/1 favourite in the coventry http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/coventry-stakes/winner

sole power, muthmir and every sprinter you could shake a stick at in the kings stand http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/kings-stand-stakes/winner

lots of old favourites in the queen anne http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/queen-anne-stakes/winner


please put your collective brain cells together for next tuesday onwards.....

[TheDazzler]

Hello all

we have a couple of big events in the next ten days

1 Royal Ascot

2 US Open golf

no doubt there will be offers around for both events, and this might be a bit early

we also have some regular people in vegas and not on so much

even so, open for ideas on both over the next week please


i took a look at the us open. being held at chambers bay in seattle which looks like a links on steroids. has never held a professional golf tournament, and is only 8 years old

do we think that this (unfamiliarity with the course, unusual course) might produce one of those high price winners that you occasionally get in a major?

it doesn't look that long a course (i think, happy to be corrected) but if you plugged in

a) accuracy off the tee (the rough looks horrible, long fescue grass)
b) chipping, scrambling saves (plenty of sand around)
c) anything else you think is apprpriate

for this type of course, who do we get for a shortlist?

Never held a professional golf tournament, only 8 years old and it's holding the US Open? That's insane. Tikay will be choking on his latte when he hears. There will probably be fans 'whooping and hollering' instead of utilising polite ripples of applause. Disgraceful.

[TightEnd]

Uruguay look big at 16s.

Really solid defensively,not going to concede many.
Will not have the goal threat of Suarez so Cavani will have to "turn up"

Expect to see them grind out one nil results.

had a look at this, specifically in light of the draw

the interesting thing is that argentina and brazil if they win their groups will meet in the semi-finals

the hosts chile should be expected to win the ecuador/mexico group? if so their run goes through a third placed team and then colombia (if it goes as you would expect) only meeting one of the big two in the final

so uruguay. would expect them to finish 2nd to argentina? if so they have to get through a quarter against brazil...this must account for their price (and suarez)

chile or colombia in the other half...e/w odds are 1/3 1,2

chile at 4-1
colombia at 6-1

one of these looks interesting as an each way pleay doesn't it? probably the hosts?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Copa_Am%C3%A9rica

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/copa-america/winner



would someone like alexis sanchez or vargas or jackson martinez or bacca be interesting for golden boot each way....?

chile play ecuador, mexico, bolivia, a third placed team in the quarter if they win ther group......

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/copa-america/top-goalscorer

obviously the market is skewed by messi, neymar, aguero....and one of brazil/argentian isn't making the final

one of colombia/chile (the top sides in the other half) is, hence suggesting names against the front three.

   

[arbboy]

Very hard to be ew value in a book that is 1/3 1,2.  I haven't looked at all at the event but i would be surprised if there is any juice in anything ew at those terms.

[TightEnd]

The Cavs

"ESPN Stats & Info ‏@ESPNStatsInfo In NBA Finals history, Game 3 winner of series tied 1-1 has won the series 84% of the time."

(Sample size, i haven't checked...)

yet they are even money underdogs at 2-1 up

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

game 4 is in cleveland too so a better than evens chance of winning at home and going 3-1 up?

lebron is in fantastic form, and the supporting cast are defending well

why are they underdogs?

[TightEnd]

The Cavs

"ESPN Stats & Info ‏@ESPNStatsInfo In NBA Finals history, Game 3 winner of series tied 1-1 has won the series 84% of the time."

(Sample size, i haven't checked...)

yet they are even money underdogs at 2-1 up

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

game 4 is in cleveland too so a better than evens chance of winning at home and going 3-1 up?

lebron is in fantastic form, and the supporting cast are defending well

why are they underdogs?

just seen this, some meat to the bone

"Updated NBA Finals Odds: Are the Cavs Now Favorites to Win It All?

https://www.numberfire.com/nba/news/5459/updated-nba-finals-odds-are-the-cavs-now-favorites-to-win-it-all

[arbboy]

The Cavs

"ESPN Stats & Info ‏@ESPNStatsInfo In NBA Finals history, Game 3 winner of series tied 1-1 has won the series 84% of the time."

(Sample size, i haven't checked...)

yet they are even money underdogs at 2-1 up

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

game 4 is in cleveland too so a better than evens chance of winning at home and going 3-1 up?

lebron is in fantastic form, and the supporting cast are defending well

why are they underdogs?

The same reason the Lakers were a huge fav to beat Boston in 2008.  Boston went 6-0 ats in that finals series i think and the lines didn't adjust to Boston's incredible defence.  The same might be happening here.  

Golden State have been totally out rebounded in this series which isn't a sexy stat like shooting 3's is to the squares in the world.  The markets are definitely under rating this banged up cavs team which hasn't exactly run good so far in the series.  Lebron hasn't come close to making 50% of his shots in this series yet.  He missed plenty of relatively easy shots in the paint last night.  He could easily explode for 60 in any game this series given the fact he is taken upwards of 30 shots a game.

The other thing the market is under rating is GS rookie coach and the total lack of finals experience in the GS roster compared to the Cavs.

People keep talking about GS can't play much worse than this but the Cavs also have a lot of potential areas where they could run better as well.

https://www.numberfire.com/nba/news/5451/stop-the-warriors-talk-the-cavaliers-can-improve-too

https://www.numberfire.com/nba/news/5449/5-weird-stats-from-the-first-two-games-of-the-nba-finals

[hector62]

Aternoon tighty.

Do you think the market has over reacted to England's win yesterday? New Zealand are odds against now . Is Southee going to play at all?