Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Aternoon tighty.

Do you think the market has over reacted to England's win yesterday? New Zealand are odds against now . Is Southee going to play at all?

Southee had an ice pack on his knee during play yesterday. am sure they would love him to play, the support bowlers to boult underperformed yesterday (albeit it was a fantastic pitch for strokeplay). whether he will be fit, don't know

game 2 is at the oval, which also should suit batting. game flow (new zealand winning the toss and batting for example) could easily work the other direction next time

of course it is fantastic to see england finally playing in a more modern aggressive style. 202 for 6 with 20 overs to go, and buttler/rashid kept attacking rather than nurdling for 10 overs and try to see the innings out. great to see

any team would struggle chasing 400, the scoreboard pressure is too much

fundamentally though NZ are far more experienced, have the standout bowler in the two teams and probably should start favourites for any game between the two in the ODI format for the time being

i'm not sure finn/plunkett/jordan stokes/rashid  would be any more capable of stopping mccullum/nz batsman of your choice in full flow than the NZ bowlers were stopping buttler/root - on that pitch

thats a long way of saying - its one game, don't over-react and think we're worldbeaters

[TightEnd]

p.s you are referring to the series? 1 down 4 to play needing to win 3 of 4

NZ are odds on for friday's game though (would be backing them if odds against for a single game)

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-new-zealand/2nd-odi/winner

[arbboy]

p.s you are referring to the series? 1 down 4 to play needing to win 3 of 4

NZ are odds on for friday's game though (would be backing them if odds against for a single game)

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-new-zealand/2nd-odi/winner

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-new-zealand/odis/series-winner

Decent non exchange arb here.  Where is the 'value'?  Are there 'rule' issues with this 'arb'?  or do the firms all just settle a drawn series as a dead heat?  Not too up to date on cricket rules.

[TightEnd]

p.s you are referring to the series? 1 down 4 to play needing to win 3 of 4

NZ are odds on for friday's game though (would be backing them if odds against for a single game)

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-new-zealand/2nd-odi/winner

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-new-zealand/odis/series-winner

Decent non exchange arb here.  Where is the 'value'?  Are there 'rule' issues with this 'arb'?  or do the firms all just settle a drawn series as a dead heat?  Not too up to date on cricket rules.

its a 5 game series. only way it draws is an abandoned game with the weather and i belieive each game has a spare day allocated

NZ odds against is the better of the two prices, as of now. england have shortened with the win and the recency of it (obviously)

[DungBeetle]

Uruguay look big at 16s.

Really solid defensively,not going to concede many.
Will not have the goal threat of Suarez so Cavani will have to "turn up"

Expect to see them grind out one nil results.

had a look at this, specifically in light of the draw

the interesting thing is that argentina and brazil if they win their groups will meet in the semi-finals

the hosts chile should be expected to win the ecuador/mexico group? if so their run goes through a third placed team and then colombia (if it goes as you would expect) only meeting one of the big two in the final

so uruguay. would expect them to finish 2nd to argentina? if so they have to get through a quarter against brazil...this must account for their price (and suarez)

chile or colombia in the other half...e/w odds are 1/3 1,2

chile at 4-1
colombia at 6-1

one of these looks interesting as an each way pleay doesn't it? probably the hosts?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Copa_Am%C3%A9rica

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/copa-america/winner



would someone like alexis sanchez or vargas or jackson martinez or bacca be interesting for golden boot each way....?

chile play ecuador, mexico, bolivia, a third placed team in the quarter if they win ther group......

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/copa-america/top-goalscorer

obviously the market is skewed by messi, neymar, aguero....and one of brazil/argentian isn't making the final

one of colombia/chile (the top sides in the other half) is, hence suggesting names against the front three.

   

Copa American can throw up some shocks.  Of last 4 runnings, Arg v Braz has been the final twice, but the other times were Uru v Para and Col v Mex. 

I quite like Ecuador at 33-1 and Enner Valencia for golden boot at 66-1 for some small stake flyers.  I thought Ecuador acquitted themselves well in the group at the world cup and were a tad unfortunate not to get through.  I think they are under rated.  They also avoid a big boy in the semi final even if they come 2nd (assuming the big 2 win their groups).

I guess it comes down to the question are the really that much worse than Chile/Colombia/Uruguay?

Not for me Clive.

[DungBeetle]

If going for it it's speculative so £8 e/w Ecuador at 33-1
£7 e/w Valencia top scorer at 66-1

£30 position.

[horseplayer]

Was going to do a long post on Copa America but have run out of time

Agree with dung I liked them for the wc and they played well.

My way of getting with them would to be oppose Chile as hosts in the opening game. Will be a game of counter attacks and a lot of the press suggests Chile are feeling the pressure as hosts.

As dung says ecuador are not as good as those 3 but not as far behind as the betting suggests.

Chile have also started to struggle to score goals which is completely against the grain for them.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/copa-america/to-reach-final

The above link shows how bad an ew bet will be at 1/3 1,2 on this event as i expected earlier.  Ecuador at 16/1 to reach the final alone in a place.  Chile are 13/8 to final.  These two are in the 'soft' half of the draw as well. 

I don't mind the bet at 33/1 but if we want to back to reach the final as well do it as a separate bet not as an EW bet.

[superwomble]

If going for it it's speculative so £8 e/w Ecuador at 33-1
£7 e/w Valencia top scorer at 66-1

£30 position.

Can't comment on how good the tip is but will say if doing this it's better to go for £8 win on Betty at 50 then £8 to reach final with Betty at 12 (16/1 at Skuy though).

[horseplayer]

Yep it is one of the worst each way heats

Need to get Fred away from big price automatically  equals each way mentality

[arbboy]

Yep it is one of the worst each way heats

Need to get Fred away from big price automatically  equals each way mentality

Agreed usually much more likely 'short price (ie shorter than 4/1) should automatically equal each way bet' than big price imo.

[TightEnd]

right

1  Top Goalscorer Enner Valencia (EW) (Outright - Outright) Odds: 66/1 Stake: 14.00 Possible Return:  591.50 e/w 1/4 1,2,3

2 ecuador done seperately

to reach the final

Unmatched bets
    Ecuador 12.00 £2.17 £23.87
    Ref: 51591016228 Matched: 16:39 10-Jun-15
    Partially Matched bet
Matched bets
    Ecuador 12.00 £5.83 £64.13
    Ref: 51591016228 Matched: 16:39 10-Jun-15
    Partially Matched bet

to win
Ecuador 50 £8.00 £392.00
 Ref: 51590962662 Matched: 16:38 10-Jun-15

[DungBeetle]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/copa-america/to-reach-final

The above link shows how bad an ew bet will be at 1/3 1,2 on this event as i expected earlier.  Ecuador at 16/1 to reach the final alone in a place.  Chile are 13/8 to final.  These two are in the 'soft' half of the draw as well. 

I don't mind the bet at 33/1 but if we want to back to reach the final as well do it as a separate bet not as an EW bet.

Got it - makes sense.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/copa-america/to-reach-final

The above link shows how bad an ew bet will be at 1/3 1,2 on this event as i expected earlier.  Ecuador at 16/1 to reach the final alone in a place.  Chile are 13/8 to final.  These two are in the 'soft' half of the draw as well.  

I don't mind the bet at 33/1 but if we want to back to reach the final as well do it as a separate bet not as an EW bet.

Got it - makes sense.

The difference between 1/2 1,2 and 1/3 1,2 ew is huge for the punter 99% of the time.  If i was a layer for tennis i would bet all tennis outrights to 1/3 1,2 because are 1/2 1,2 you are getting royally fucked pretty much every grand slam on at least two of the top 6 players (draw dependent) every time as a bookmaker and usually on the players you are laying to casuals anyway who wouldn't even notice the ew terms.

An example a couple of years ago was djok for Wimb at 6/5 ew 1/2 1,2 was a cracking ew bet given his draw.  Think he was a 1/3 poke to final pre event because of the draw.

[samj19]

Going to add some counter argument to the Cavs case. Theres no deny theyve been monumental as a team defensively but more important Delly has been huge. Hes an in your face defender who is, imo inside of Curry's jersey aswell as head. The counter argument is fatigue. LBJ and Delly imparticular are playing soany minutes it would be inhuman to not tire. This has shown in all 3 games. Exerting that much effort for that long is exhausting. In the last 2 games and I think in the first too the GSW Have outscored the Cavs pretty well in the 4th. Last night went from a comfortable 20 point lead to a shakey 1 point leas with basically LBJ having to hold the ball for 24 seconss every possession to wimd the clock down. It isnt going to take much to make these narrow losses into narrow wins for the GSW. Bit more luck/better shot selection.

There's no real way for the Cavs to be as effective while using less energy. From what Im seeing the reason they are being so successful is their inbound pressure. GSW love fast points. If you cant carry the ball out fast enough your instantly on the back foot a bit more and against the clock.

Dont get me wrong I want the Cavs to win this series as it makes an epic underdog story inlight of injuries etc but I wouldnt be steaming into evens personally. Gl if you do.

If you can find a market for LBJ to be mvp for the series its pretty much a lock so not sure what prices will be available.