Tips for Tikay

[Jamier-Host]

Despite the tongue-in-cheek mention of Mr Daly yesterday, I have a fondness for golf veterans since Freddy Couples won me bagfuls by making cuts and Top 20's galore in recent years at Augusta.

With the Champions Tour meaning these players maintain their competitive edge, there always seems to be someone who gets into contention, although you never really fancy them to actually win it (obv Watson got pretty close!)

For The Open i've had a dabble on Tom Lehman - a former Open champion who notched up decent efforts whenever he rocked up at St Andrews so he seems to like the place (T4/T23/T14). 28/1 seems pretty fair for a Top 20 finish with BV (inc. full payout on ties). I also read a nice article about his competitive drive while doing some research which helped sway me

Recommend maybe £5/10 @ 28/1 to cheer on one of the golden oldies.

[doubleup]

thank you

interested in that too

1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 at say 20-1

or 1,2,3,4,5 at 25-1

is a common decision here with stenson, louis, scott, rose etc (ie below speith and above rickie fowler in the betting)

we'd take the extra places?

Can do a spreadsheet tomorrow to answer this question.  Suspect it is close.  It makes me think there are probably better opportunities (maths wise anyway).  Am a big fan of Stenson fwiw

There is a spreadsheet to roughly compare extra places shorter odds half way down this page.

http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/golfdecision.html

The extra places seem good in this case.

edit  I should add that 6 places will prob be "standard" next week and that would make it a lot closer


edit again in fact 6 places @ 25-1 is almost the same as @ 8 places @ 20-1

[TightEnd]

Dustbin a must for any portfolio. One day he will just blow em away. Course made for him.

I think Stenson T3 last St Andrews Open/Casey also T3 and Ooustheizen, winner are all playing well enough and probably close enough(2/3pts) to go for the 8 places.

Casey is Top price, but will leave it to Team Maths to decide if the two extra places worth the 2/3 points.

these four were mentioned yesterday

can we narrow it down? which of the four should be backed now with 8 places?

[TightEnd]

Despite the tongue-in-cheek mention of Mr Daly yesterday, I have a fondness for golf veterans since Freddy Couples won me bagfuls by making cuts and Top 20's galore in recent years at Augusta.

With the Champions Tour meaning these players maintain their competitive edge, there always seems to be someone who gets into contention, although you never really fancy them to actually win it (obv Watson got pretty close!)

For The Open i've had a dabble on Tom Lehman - a former Open champion who notched up decent efforts whenever he rocked up at St Andrews so he seems to like the place (T4/T23/T14). 28/1 seems pretty fair for a Top 20 finish with BV (inc. full payout on ties). I also read a nice article about his competitive drive while doing some research which helped sway me

Recommend maybe £5/10 @ 28/1 to cheer on one of the golden oldies.

 Outright Tom Lehman (Top 20 Finish - FULL PAYOUT ON TIES - Tournament) Odds: 28/1 Stake: 5.00 Possible Return:  145.00

[TightEnd]

Stage 6 of the Tour. 

Another relatively flat stage, though is goes have a short climb at the finish.  Grieppel has shown himself to be the class of the sprinting field. Whilst not an ideal finish for him today, i think that 50/1 with Corals is worth a £5 win only investment.

why is he 50-1 with sagan 7/4?

doesn't he like uphill finishes?

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/tour-de-france-stage-6/winner

[Doobs]

thank you

interested in that too

1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 at say 20-1

or 1,2,3,4,5 at 25-1

is a common decision here with stenson, louis, scott, rose etc (ie below speith and above rickie fowler in the betting)

we'd take the extra places?

Can do a spreadsheet tomorrow to answer this question.  Suspect it is close.  It makes me think there are probably better opportunities (maths wise anyway).  Am a big fan of Stenson fwiw

There is a spreadsheet to roughly compare extra places shorter odds half way down this page.

http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/golfdecision.html

The extra places seem good in this case.

edit  I should add that 6 places will prob be "standard" next week and that would make it a lot closer


edit again in fact 6 places @ 25-1 is almost the same as @ 8 places @ 20-1

Assuming this is Stenson, the 25/1 has gone anyway, so the 20/1 8 places is a much clearer winner now.

 

[nellberg]

Stage 6 of the Tour. 

Another relatively flat stage, though is goes have a short climb at the finish.  Grieppel has shown himself to be the class of the sprinting field. Whilst not an ideal finish for him today, i think that 50/1 with Corals is worth a £5 win only investment.

why is he 50-1 with sagan 7/4?

doesn't he like uphill finishes?

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/tour-de-france-stage-6/winner

cav was 6/4 yesterday and 40/1 today. greipel was 4's yesterday and today 50/1. Those 2 are the 2 quickest pure sprinters in the field on pan-flat finishes but unlikely they'll be winning today with the uphill finish. Sagan and Degenkolb are sprinters who can get up a small rise at the end, hence their prices are so short for today. If Matthews of Orica hadn't broke 2 ribs a few days back, this stage would be a good one for him also. climbers like Valverde and Rodriquez are shorter odds than the pure sprinters for today's stage, so that's a good indication of the task Cav and Greipel face on this stage

[doubleup]

The Irish are going 7 places as well if someone can get on for Fred.

[Newportlad]

Guess it'd be daft to have a small interest in the guy who blitzed this course like nobody ever did before or since in 2000?






 

Damned if you do, damned if you don't now Tikay.

If he's ever going to win another major then here or Augusta seem most likely to me.

His memories of the Old Course will obviously be good ones, and assuming the R&A don't decide to narrow the fairways too much then maybe, just maybe, he could get himself into contention.
Probably a pipe dream that he can make a triumphant return, but you never can tell.

BFSB has him at 37/1 which is distinctly out of line with others to my untutored eye. But any other golfer with Tiger's recent record would surely be much bigger than that?

It is the sportsbook that has that price (if you click through/go direct it is actually 39/1).  He is probably the one golfer where you wouldn't take advantage of the great each way terms.  If you look back on his stats, he has always been a first or nothing kind of guy.

I'm pretty sure that Tiger is a terrible price for St Andrews. One of his problems is that he misses everything off the tee to the right. You cannot afford to do this at St Andrews.  Miss it left on every hole by all means, but never to the right. I like the look of Oostuizen for this one.

[KitKeeper]

World Matchplay darts starts next Saturday...

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/world-matchplay/world-matchplay-darts/winner

I mentioned Jelle Klaasen at 300/1 months ago (I can dream, can't I...?!) but despite the recent 'revelations' about his family and the fact he's not quite as much of a tournament banker as he used to be, I find Phil Taylor at 7/2 being a really solid bet.

It's not the most ideal of draws, it has to be said... He'd have to go through Barney, Chisnall, Anderson and van Gerwen to win this (if they make it through).

However, Taylor does not lose at Blackpool. He's won every single renewal of this since 2008. How many other sports where a participant has won the last 7 times do they go off 7/2? Not many. It's the one tournament he has never lost his grip on and having shown good form winning both the World Cup and in Japan, he still looks to be playing near his peak. The long format is just perfect for his ultra consistent game and time and again he just wears down the opponent with relentless scoring over so many legs.

Interested in the thoughts of others but if liked, I'd recommend a score at the advised prices.

Happy also with 10/3 if not possible.

[Doobs]

thank you

interested in that too

1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 at say 20-1

or 1,2,3,4,5 at 25-1

is a common decision here with stenson, louis, scott, rose etc (ie below speith and above rickie fowler in the betting)

we'd take the extra places?

Can do a spreadsheet tomorrow to answer this question.  Suspect it is close.  It makes me think there are probably better opportunities (maths wise anyway).  Am a big fan of Stenson fwiw

I think it is a bit early to try and do a spreadsheet as the betfair place market hasn't really formed.  I could do some manual estimates of odds but that would mean I'd probably have to do over 50 golfers and will take more time than I have right now.  You can't just assume a 20/1 chance for 1st is 20/1 for 8th or you'll get stupid results.

I do think there is one golfer you can do this kind of simple calc and that is Jim Furyk.  He ended a 100 event streak without winning in April, but you can assume if he is 129/1 (that looks too big) to win then he is probably less than 129/1 to finish 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th.  That makes the 100/1 Vic is offering (big stand out price) and 6 places look a very decent addition to the portfolio.

He has 4 previous 4th places in The Open, so is no mug at Links Golf.  I could also say that the RBC Heritage is played on a links course, but that might be stretching the definition.  Anyway suggest a tenner e/w if we can get the 100/1 and 6 places with BMU.  If you miss it, I'll match their price for a fiver e/w.

[arbboy]

thank you

interested in that too

1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 at say 20-1

or 1,2,3,4,5 at 25-1

is a common decision here with stenson, louis, scott, rose etc (ie below speith and above rickie fowler in the betting)

we'd take the extra places?

Can do a spreadsheet tomorrow to answer this question.  Suspect it is close.  It makes me think there are probably better opportunities (maths wise anyway).  Am a big fan of Stenson fwiw

I think it is a bit early to try and do a spreadsheet as the betfair place market hasn't really formed.  I could do some manual estimates of odds but that would mean I'd probably have to do over 50 golfers and will take more time than I have right now.  You can't just assume a 20/1 chance for 1st is 20/1 for 8th or you'll get stupid results.

I do think there is one golfer you can do this kind of simple calc and that is Jim Furyk.  He ended a 100 event streak without winning in April, but you can assume if he is 129/1 (that looks too big) to win then he is probably less than 129/1 to finish 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th.  That makes the 100/1 Vic is offering (big stand out price) and 6 places look a very decent addition to the portfolio.

He has 4 previous 4th places in The Open, so is no mug at Links Golf.  I could also say that the RBC Heritage is played on a links course, but that might be stretching the definition.  Anyway suggest a tenner e/w if we can get the 100/1 and 6 places with BMU.  If you miss it, I'll match their price for a fiver e/w.

Furyk is like the total opposite of Tiger in that he literally isn't win or bust as discussed the other day place wise. 

[david3103]

Not sure if Tiger can be categorised as a 'win only' kinda guy. He was in the top 8 in 2012 and 2013, and has a fair few finishes in that area in majors tbf.

[doubleup]

thank you

interested in that too

1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 at say 20-1

or 1,2,3,4,5 at 25-1

is a common decision here with stenson, louis, scott, rose etc (ie below speith and above rickie fowler in the betting)

we'd take the extra places?

Can do a spreadsheet tomorrow to answer this question.  Suspect it is close.  It makes me think there are probably better opportunities (maths wise anyway).  Am a big fan of Stenson fwiw

I think it is a bit early to try and do a spreadsheet as the betfair place market hasn't really formed.  I could do some manual estimates of odds but that would mean I'd probably have to do over 50 golfers and will take more time than I have right now.  You can't just assume a 20/1 chance for 1st is 20/1 for 8th or you'll get stupid results.

I do think there is one golfer you can do this kind of simple calc and that is Jim Furyk.  He ended a 100 event streak without winning in April, but you can assume if he is 129/1 (that looks too big) to win then he is probably less than 129/1 to finish 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th.  That makes the 100/1 Vic is offering (big stand out price) and 6 places look a very decent addition to the portfolio.

He has 4 previous 4th places in The Open, so is no mug at Links Golf.  I could also say that the RBC Heritage is played on a links course, but that might be stretching the definition.  Anyway suggest a tenner e/w if we can get the 100/1 and 6 places with BMU.  If you miss it, I'll match their price for a fiver e/w.

Furyk is like the total opposite of Tiger in that he literally isn't win or bust as discussed the other day place wise.  

I don't think win or bust is the best way to describe it.  In the last season he played well, 2013, Tiger had 5 wins and 5 place payouts (in 2012, 3 wins 5 places)- it is more that "if he is in form, the best value is backing him to win".  For most other golfers the best you can hope is that if they are in form, they will be in contention.

Anyway the Open isn't a difficult problem imo.  If we have 6+ places and a golfer whose win price is roughly in the region of the exchange we should bet each way unless there is a compelling reason not to.  

I also don't think you are likely to make a huge mistake using the assumption that a player is as likely to be first as fifth when trying to work out if you should take extra places for lower odds, if a player has a significantly higher chance of placing fifth than winning there will be a big disparity between the exchange win odds and the book odds, so the player shouldn't be bet on anyway.  Furyk is actually a good example of this, he is only a bet because BMU are way OOL, many other books are 66-1 and he's 120-1 on the exchange.



 

[Doobs]

For those who are limited at BFSB

They have this in the T and Cs of the Open

If you have been sent an email excluding you from promotions you will not qualify

So if you have an email that says Having reviewed your account, we are notifying you that your account will not be eligible for Betfair Sportsbook* promotions, including Best Odds Guaranteed, in future. , like me, you are knacked.

Not that it makes much difference as they are limiting me to £3 each way too. 

* a sportsbook or a race and sports book (sometimes abbreviated as book) is a place where a gambler can wager on various sports competitions. Just in case you weren't sure.