Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

Sorry i was on my phone at a restaurant with friends, I got a text from a player who plays for Newcastle saying colo just announced to the team he's leaving and joining pardew at palace. Makes sense because he's sat out every pre season friendly so far. Not been announced captain and we've just signed a new centre half yesterday.

I actually haven't posted many "max" bets they've usually been optimistic nufc bets with big odds or the long odds big brother bet etc

No worries  Patrick, & thanks.

I do hope this comes across as intended, but the constructive point that needed making was that, to be a winning punter (& there are no exceptions to this rule) .....


NEVER EVER place or recommend a bet without knowing or stating the price.

To bet "price unseen" would be like playing poker without looking at our hole cards.

Of all the hundreds of lessons I've taken from Fred, after being a mug punter for 30+ years, this was easily the most important one 

Imagine, say, Arsenal v Sunderland at The Emirates. Who we gonna back? The Arse, obv. but what if we were offered 100/1 Sunderland, who would we bet then?

Going back to the bet, Colo is a player who really impresses me, & if he goes to Palace, it bodes well for them, & not so well for NUFC, imo.

If Annette could do it I'm sure BITB could too
http://annetteobrestad.blogspot.co.uk/2007/12/annette-obrestad-blindno-look-at-cards.html

He probably could, yes. He could never be a profitable punter if he places bets without knowing the price though.

An odd aside. I interviewed Annette in Vegas this year, & it got more views than almost any of the 50 videos we released from Vegas this year. We interviewed Sam Trickett, Danny Negreanu, Jason Somervile, Jason Mercier & Shane Warne amongst others. The Annette interview received up to 10 times more views than the others, it even had 4 times as many views as the Lord Sir God Danny Negreanu one.

Who'd have thought?

The power of 2 plus 2 I think.  Somebody started a thread on whatever happened to Annette there and somebody linked to your video.  There was then a discussion about how hot she was, which is something that will always gather views!  In addition it was a really good video, but most of them were.

I was pretty shocked how long ago that WSOPE was.  Guess many of the current top young players hadn't even started playing back then.

Any other notables at the final table?

Tempted to push this Chesterfield angle further, so £25 on t'Barnsley to win at the Saltergate Proact next weekend please. Dan Crowley could be a good loan signing for t'Tykes. Robbo was desperate to get him at our place after he made four and scored two in an FA Youth Cup game last season. Supposed to be the business. But we couldn't justify taking another midfielder, with Bozzy, J.Anderson, H.Anderson, Maddison, Collison, Taylor and Beautyman fighting for four spots.

Rec £25 on Barnsley, 12-5.

[TightEnd]

Think Toofi is worth £10ew @ 20-1 with BMU or Billy's

help me out please

which race?

and why? (just quickly)

sorry G3.45  5 places race close to betfair price, middleish draw good, 4yos 5yos good in race, last run ok and hasn't one recently

Also go for 10 ew tatlisu with BMU @ 16-1 for same reasons

both bv

 15:45 TOOFI (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 20/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  270.00

 15:45 TATLISU (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 16/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  220.00

5 places 1/4

just the 26 runners to beat.

[Chompy]

Middle-ish draw is the one you wouldn't want in the Stewards' Cup imo. Either rail traditionally best here, ground dependant, and the high numbers all went first in the draw for stall positions the other day.

Best way with these races, bankroll permitting, is to back four or five each-way, lay back a chunk of both the win and place parts in the four-places market, and hope to find the winner and that elusive fifth placer.

[tikay]

Sorry i was on my phone at a restaurant with friends, I got a text from a player who plays for Newcastle saying colo just announced to the team he's leaving and joining pardew at palace. Makes sense because he's sat out every pre season friendly so far. Not been announced captain and we've just signed a new centre half yesterday.

I actually haven't posted many "max" bets they've usually been optimistic nufc bets with big odds or the long odds big brother bet etc

No worries  Patrick, & thanks.

I do hope this comes across as intended, but the constructive point that needed making was that, to be a winning punter (& there are no exceptions to this rule) .....


NEVER EVER place or recommend a bet without knowing or stating the price.

To bet "price unseen" would be like playing poker without looking at our hole cards.

Of all the hundreds of lessons I've taken from Fred, after being a mug punter for 30+ years, this was easily the most important one 

Imagine, say, Arsenal v Sunderland at The Emirates. Who we gonna back? The Arse, obv. but what if we were offered 100/1 Sunderland, who would we bet then?

Going back to the bet, Colo is a player who really impresses me, & if he goes to Palace, it bodes well for them, & not so well for NUFC, imo.

If Annette could do it I'm sure BITB could too
http://annetteobrestad.blogspot.co.uk/2007/12/annette-obrestad-blindno-look-at-cards.html

He probably could, yes. He could never be a profitable punter if he places bets without knowing the price though.

An odd aside. I interviewed Annette in Vegas this year, & it got more views than almost any of the 50 videos we released from Vegas this year. We interviewed Sam Trickett, Danny Negreanu, Jason Somervile, Jason Mercier & Shane Warne amongst others. The Annette interview received up to 10 times more views than the others, it even had 4 times as many views as the Lord Sir God Danny Negreanu one.

Who'd have thought?

The power of 2 plus 2 I think.  Somebody started a thread on whatever happened to Annette there and somebody linked to your video.  There was then a discussion about how hot she was, which is something that will always gather views!  In addition it was a really good video, but most of them were.

I was pretty shocked how long ago that WSOPE was.  Guess many of the current top young players hadn't even started playing back then.

Any other notables at the final table?

Tempted to push this Chesterfield angle further, so £25 on t'Barnsley to win at the Saltergate Proact next weekend please. Dan Crowley could be a good loan signing for t'Tykes. Robbo was desperate to get him at our place after he made four and scored two in an FA Youth Cup game last season. Supposed to be the business. But we couldn't justify taking another midfielder, with Bozzy, J.Anderson, H.Anderson, Maddison, Collison, Taylor and Beautyman fighting for four spots.

Rec £25 on Barnsley, 12-5.

One or two......

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/event.php?a=r&n=27653

[TightEnd]

£25 Tykes at the Spireites 3.4 888 next saturday placed

can't link from that site

[Doobs]

Middle-ish draw is the one you wouldn't want in the Stewards' Cup imo. Either rail traditionally best here, ground dependant, and the high numbers all went first in the draw for stall positions the other day.

Best way with these races, bankroll permitting, is to back four or five each-way, lay back a chunk of both the win and place parts in the four-places market, and hope to find the winner and that elusive fifth placer.

I backed Mubtaghaa in the first and was reluctant to put it up because of the draw (and possibly because it could easily be last if it doesn't find its 2 year old form!).  I assumed high was best, but the favourite in the first is drawn low which confuses me.

Not sure I'll be laying much back though.

[TightEnd]

Middle-ish draw is the one you wouldn't want in the Stewards' Cup imo. Either rail traditionally best here, ground dependant, and the high numbers all went first in the draw for stall positions the other day.

Best way with these races, bankroll permitting, is to back four or five each-way, lay back a chunk of both the win and place parts in the four-places market, and hope to find the winner and that elusive fifth placer.

what do you know about the draw? leave it to the experts imo.

[Tal]

If any of those winners happen to be at doncaster, don't be shy.

Otherwise, I'll be standing at the parade ring, seeing which horses the connections are congregating around. I heard that's a great way to find winners.

you are going to Yorkshire? Violuntarily? Aren't there people for Yorkshire there?

"Could have hit that oss with a stick of rhubarb and it would have won if i was riding it" etc etc from 20,000 Boycott's on Town Moor

My aunt Ada would have ridden that home in her pinny.

I'll be haggling for prices and then giving the bookie the difference as a tip, of course.

[Chompy]

Exactly right. I hardly look at the draw these days tbh, as most courses have found ways round biases.

What will always be true, though, is that basing anything on draw 'stats' won't work long term.

I haven't looked at either of the Stewards' races but backing at <16-1, drawn high or low, is never the worst idea.

If there's a high bias in the first, the prices of Ruwaiyan, Related and Discussiontofollow will all drop, as most of the leading players in the biggy are low.

[Chompy]

Pep now odds-on, everywhere bar VC, to be next Man City manager.

[Marky147]

Pep now odds-on, everywhere bar VC, to be next Man City manager.

Cue the 'Price had to be cut, after a flurry of 5 figure bets' press release

[doubleup]

Middle-ish draw is the one you wouldn't want in the Stewards' Cup imo. Either rail traditionally best here, ground dependant, and the high numbers all went first in the draw for stall positions the other day.

Chompy that simply isn't correct.  Do you think I just make up stats for a laugh?  


Here are the stats for the last 9 years for the cup and the sprint - overall its clearly best to have a middle draw if the objective is to get placed and occasionally win.

other stats in post below

[doubleup]

....

[arbboy]

I just withdrew £350 from BWin, & they charged me a £1.50 fee.

Is that normal procedure, do other Firms do the same?

I don't withdraw very often, just leave it there for future use, but it seems a bit of a cheek to charge to withdraw.

t
Not as annoying as getting your account closed with them.  I would happily pay a £50 deposit and withdraw fee to do business with them.  The withdraw fee always just made me leave my balance in there to iron them out even more.  I think it is a good idea tbh as a firm as punters generally deposit and withdraw too often for no real reason which costs the firms a lot of money over a year which they obviously have to add to the juice they put into their prices to make it pay.

[tikay]

July 2015 Figures

Closed bets: 72
Amount wagered: £1,682.29
Profit/loss: £17.88
ROI: 1.06%

Number of "sports" bet on: 9
Most popular: Horses (19), Golf (12), MotorSport (8 ).
Most profitable: Tennis (£200.00), Golf (£157.50),  Cycling (£10.00)  (The only sports to make a profit)
Least profitable: Darts (-£150.00), Misc (-£60.00), MotorSport (-£53.00)

Number of tipsters: 18 including 0 new tipsters.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 4,898
Amount wagered: £147,299.2
Profit/loss: £8,476.40
ROI: 5.75%

Number of "sports" bet on: 30
Most popular:  Horses(1,196), Football (1,177), Golf (396), Cricket(290).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Football   4,373.66   36,372.51   12.02   1,177
Misc.   1,754.92   6,360.77   27.59   165
Horses   1,754.57   38,047.94   4.61   1,196
...
Boxing   -383.90   2,677.67   -14.34   76
Snooker   -450.00   1,275.00   -35.29   38
RU   -617.30   4,381.39   -14.09   228


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 176


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 57

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
Bwin      3,137.33   4,852.86   64.65   128
BoyleSports      2,505.40   4,520.45   55.42   116
WilliamHill      2,301.78   26,702.06   8.62   876
...
PaddyPower      -551.82   7,695.31   -7.17   363
BetDaq      -977.60   1,192.50   -81.98   6
BetFred      -1,619.73   11,521.22   -14.06   387


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7


No bets were closed on football this month. Horse racing has now become the most popular (in terms of bets placed) sport supplanting football which has been the most popular for many months.

Thanks Vince.

I always intend to comment on these, but good intentions & all that.

Anyway, thank you.

I guess football will soon resume it's pre-eminence by bet volume, with the season about to start.

Disappointing to see no new tipsters this month, though 18 different tipsters in July, & 176 in total, is not so bad.   

What a 2015 we have had so far.

Jan -£35.90

Feb +£488.76

March -£55.73

April +£1,056.99

May + £537.91

June +£1,565.83

July +£17.88


That looks to be around £3,500, all from the collective wisdom of everyone here. And it's free, we don't have to send money to syndicates or tipping services - completely free.

I suppose negative variance will pay a visit soon, & when she does, we can't complain. 

I don't plan to get into a debate on this, but there has been some unseemly exchanges here this week. A little tolerance of each other is in order, imo, before we destroy this freeroll good thing. We have lost too many good regulars here, & our - your - ROI will drop unless we address it. We should be looking to get them back, with no questions asked, not losing them. 

Good luck to everyone, here or otherwise, in August, now let's get this thing back on track.