Tips for Tikay

[McGlashan]

Little bit of after timing here but i think it shows there is value in the EPL betting matches.

Amazing how Arsenal went off 1/4 for this game yet Chelsea went off 2/5 yday in their game yesterday.  I would argue the gap between Chelsea and Arsenal is bigger than the relative gap between Swansea and WH so if anything the prices should have been the other way around.  Even if you say the relative gaps are the same that is a big difference in price between the two games.  I appreciate there is a bit more to it than just these raw facts but i get the feeling arsenal are going to be massively over bet this year.

Talking of overbet, should we be laying good old Liverpool at 2.16/2.18?

Probably but Stoke are missing Shawcross (and Huth after his transfer) so there is a massive unknown in their back 4 alongside a new keeper for this season.  Watching brief for me today.  Glen Johnson starts for Stoke against his old club.

Team news here.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/33750574

So yes, they probably are too short but we can easily pass on it bearing in mind we've already got an ante post max bet on Stoke.

[arbboy]

Little bit of after timing here but i think it shows there is value in the EPL betting matches.

Amazing how Arsenal went off 1/4 for this game yet Chelsea went off 2/5 yday in their game yesterday.  I would argue the gap between Chelsea and Arsenal is bigger than the relative gap between Swansea and WH so if anything the prices should have been the other way around.  Even if you say the relative gaps are the same that is a big difference in price between the two games.  I appreciate there is a bit more to it than just these raw facts but i get the feeling arsenal are going to be massively over bet this year.

Talking of overbet, should we be laying good old Liverpool at 2.16/2.18?

Probably but Stoke are missing Shawcross (and Huth after his transfer) so there is a massive unknown in their back 4 alongside a new keeper for this season.  Watching brief for me today.  Glen Johnson starts for Stoke against his old club.

Team news here.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/33750574

So yes, they probably are too short but we can easily pass on it bearing in mind we've already got an ante post max bet on Stoke.

Ante post stuff shouldn't make any difference to our week to week match betting.  Really want fred to get away from looking at ante post bets with regard to future bets.  They are all in the till locked away until May.  They shouldn't have any effect on any decisions we make during the season.

Certainly wasn't the ideal start for the top mids bet yday with Villa and Leics winning. 

[Graham C]

Mind if I moan about Paddy Power here?   I don't bet a lot, but thought I'd take advantage of their latest MBS with a £20 on Liverpool to win and get £10 free in game betting.   Ten mins in and I've still not got my bets so I'm on to live chat.

Sun, Aug 9, 4:15:20 Pm Conor K: Graham I have now added both 2 X 5 free bets to your account. I regret to inform you although that going forward your account will not be eligible for money back specials. This was done by our trading department I do apologise in advance.
Sun, Aug 9, 4:20:12 pm You: Oh, why is that?
Sun, Aug 9, 4:20:12 Pm Conor K: Just a decision that has been made now.
Sun, Aug 9, 4:20:48 pm You: for what reason?
Sun, Aug 9, 4:20:48 Pm Conor K: Graham I'm afraid we do not need to confirm a reason why we no longer are allowing you to avail of the mbs promotions.
Sun, Aug 9, 4:22:11 pm You: I dont understand why though?  it's not like I bet a lot
Sun, Aug 9, 4:22:11 Pm Conor K: Sorry about that Graham.
Sun, Aug 9, 4:23:42 pm You: That's pretty poor
Sun, Aug 9, 4:23:42 Pm Conor K: Sorry again Graham. Have a nice day.

[arbboy]

Mind if I moan about Paddy Power here?   I don't bet a lot, but thought I'd take advantage of their latest MBS with a £20 on Liverpool to win and get £10 free in game betting.   Ten mins in and I've still not got my bets so I'm on to live chat.

Sun, Aug 9, 4:15:20 Pm Conor K: Graham I have now added both 2 X 5 free bets to your account. I regret to inform you although that going forward your account will not be eligible for money back specials. This was done by our trading department I do apologise in advance.
Sun, Aug 9, 4:20:12 pm You: Oh, why is that?
Sun, Aug 9, 4:20:12 Pm Conor K: Just a decision that has been made now.
Sun, Aug 9, 4:20:48 pm You: for what reason?
Sun, Aug 9, 4:20:48 Pm Conor K: Graham I'm afraid we do not need to confirm a reason why we no longer are allowing you to avail of the mbs promotions.
Sun, Aug 9, 4:22:11 pm You: I dont understand why though?  it's not like I bet a lot
Sun, Aug 9, 4:22:11 Pm Conor K: Sorry about that Graham.
Sun, Aug 9, 4:23:42 pm You: That's pretty poor
Sun, Aug 9, 4:23:42 Pm Conor K: Sorry again Graham. Have a nice day.

What have you backed with them recently then for that to happen?

[McGlashan]

question for mcgalashan or bazzaboy. will you be able to get odds on an English title fight? a young traveller lad called isaac lowe is boxing for the English featherweight title on sept 5th vs Jamie speight. ive watched Isaac over the last 10 years since he boxed with my son in the N/W ABA finals. and he is the best amateur i seen since amir khan, was on another level to anyone else i seen him box 20 plus times as an amateur and he is now 10 and 0 as a pro, hes been sparring with josh warrington this week and hes been sparring with scott quigg and just looks so comfortable at that level. he will beat Jamie easily imo and is a max bet if we can get on at 1/2 or above

Very very unlikely anyone will price it up and no chance you will get 1/2 if they do, more like 1/10. A few years back you used to get prices for small hall shows (I'm assuming this will be on one) but nowadays it doesn't happen sadly. Unless it's on the undercard of a Hearn or Warren show then it has no chance of being priced up.

cheers bazza, hes going to be on the josh warrington undercard at leeds for this, it is on sky sports, so maybe that will get it priced up?

Okay, so it is likely to get priced up. Boxrec didn't have the fight listed as being on the Leeds card. It looks like they both usually fight on Steve Goodwin small hall shows and that there's been a deal done to help fill out a weak Eddie Hearn card.

The thing is, at 10 and 0, Lowe is expected to beat someone who is 13-7. You're unlikely to see odds of 1/2, but it's not to say the bookies will price it up correctly. There's some full fights of Speight on youtube, take a look and see what you think of him.

[Graham C]

Nothing Arb.   Bet is above my average but haven't bet anything big with them for at least two years.  Have placed lots of small bets though.  Thing is I'm sure I've had free bets etc since that haven't been a problem.  Account doesn't seem to be limited, I could have had 40k on if I wanted!

[Graham C]

Liverpool win and I'll take £55 of my £60 out.  £5 spin up ftw. 

That'll show 'em!

[engy]

hi mcglashan ive watched all of jamies bouts, seems decent but a level below Isaac. will wait and see if we can get odds

[Bazzaboy]

question for mcgalashan or bazzaboy. will you be able to get odds on an English title fight? a young traveller lad called isaac lowe is boxing for the English featherweight title on sept 5th vs Jamie speight. ive watched Isaac over the last 10 years since he boxed with my son in the N/W ABA finals. and he is the best amateur i seen since amir khan, was on another level to anyone else i seen him box 20 plus times as an amateur and he is now 10 and 0 as a pro, hes been sparring with josh warrington this week and hes been sparring with scott quigg and just looks so comfortable at that level. he will beat Jamie easily imo and is a max bet if we can get on at 1/2 or above

Very very unlikely anyone will price it up and no chance you will get 1/2 if they do, more like 1/10. A few years back you used to get prices for small hall shows (I'm assuming this will be on one) but nowadays it doesn't happen sadly. Unless it's on the undercard of a Hearn or Warren show then it has no chance of being priced up.

cheers bazza, hes going to be on the josh warrington undercard at leeds for this, it is on sky sports, so maybe that will get it priced up?

Okay, so it is likely to get priced up. Boxrec didn't have the fight listed as being on the Leeds card. It looks like they both usually fight on Steve Goodwin small hall shows and that there's been a deal done to help fill out a weak Eddie Hearn card.

The thing is, at 10 and 0, Lowe is expected to beat someone who is 13-7. You're unlikely to see odds of 1/2, but it's not to say the bookies will price it up correctly. There's some full fights of Speight on youtube, take a look and see what you think of him.

Yeah there's half a chance it will get priced up if on the Leeds card. Lowe should be very short though. Speight has only beaten one fighter with a winning record.

[McGlashan]

hi mcglashan ive watched all of jamies bouts, seems decent but a level below Isaac. will wait and see if we can get odds

Okay, it sounds like a breakout fight designed to make Isaac look good. Is he still with Peter Fury? 

[engy]

https://www.facebook.com/horace.durant/videos/894104860643738/

that's his spar with josh yesterday if it works

[engy]

don't think it does ill try to get it on

[TightEnd]

one bet completed yesterday

Leishman unplaced in WGC Bridgestone -£10, the event won by Shane Lowry

[The Camel]

Is Fred still unrestricted with Hills?

Apparently they've been using the big stick liberally in the past week or so.

[TightEnd]

not that i am aware of, though we haven't placed a bet there so far in August