Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Peter love the enthusiasm and the knowledge

Keep it coming

[Tal]

Buccs +10 evens with skybet if anybody can get on or fancies it.Generally 5/6 across the board.

Can't remember whether it was you that asked about Fred's +10 bets, but it's something I believe a former TfT Elder explained a couple of years ago as relating to December, when the punters have got used to who the rubbish teams are and proceed to underrated them en masse. So you get say Jacksonville +17 against Indy or Jets +13 versus Green Bay. Those teams who have to win to keep the hunt for a playoff berth or a playoff bye are going to want to win but probably not push for a monster score.

Tighty tipped the buccs at the start of the season for their division elsewhere IIRC and they're unlikely to be overrated after last week's debacle. That secondary though...they were marmalised by a poor Titans WR corps and a rookie QB. Now they face Drew Brees and a top level set of pacy, route-running catchers. Can the buccs offense cope without Mike Evans fully fit (he is believed to start today but can't be 100%)? They'll need to score 20 points to leave you comfortable of beating the spread.

All IMO of course.

Obv, a good price is a good price

[ChipRich]

^^

Mike Evans expected to play fwiw. (Ah, just seen you edited that part)

Quite like it myself too. Was waiting on official confirmation regarding Mike Evans first though.

Saints without Byrd, Ellerbe and Lewis on D too.

[Tal]

^^

Mike Evans expected to play fwiw. (Ah, just seen you edited)

Quite like it myself too. Was waiting on official confirmation regarding Mike Evans first though.

Saints without Byrd, Ellerbe and Lewis on D too.

Sorry. Yes, edited as an alert came through! It should be an entertaining game, as both sides will be eager to win. Spiller plays for the saints.

Martellus Bennett over 55.5 with Scuy no good for Fred but Alshon Jeffrey is out per NFL Network. Chicago v Arizona game.

[Tal]

Like I say, you can't go wrong getting evens when everyone else is 5/6.

[DungBeetle]

Spread recommends were looking good then hulk collides with massa.  Ouch!

[BiloxiDesire]

Pre-FP3 Singapore GP Bets:

Was hoping to do this yesterday but got caught up with stuff. Just a warning that a number of these bets are Bwin only, sorry Tighty!

Practice Three Winning Driver - Vettel & Kvyat @ 9/1 & 10/1 respectively with Sk-eye Bet. Suggest £10. The general consensus in the paddock yesterday was that Mercedes were sandbagging. However, there is no reason they won't do this in FP3 also - especially since the session takes place much earlier than the race will and learning opportunities are limited. Suggest £10 on both.

Points Finish - Fernando Alonso @ 11/8 with Sk-eye Bet, Tootsport & Betfredrick. Fernando looked quick yesterday, and while it may have been a glory run on low fuel, 11/8 is still a little too high on what can be a race of attrition. Suggest £10.
-----
Bwin only bets
-----
Mercedes Total Finishers - 1 @ 39/10. This circuit is hard on brakes, and Mercedes struggled with massive wear yesterday - at one point Lewis' car had a small fire in the pit lane. Suggest £10.

Mercedes Total Finishers - 0 @ 33/1. As above. 33/1 is crazy. Suggest £10.

Lotus Total Finishers - 1 @ 20/19. Usually this price is around 4/7. Don't really understand why it's gone up for Singapore. £20.

Will re-review after FP3. If people could get on the Bwin bets for the thread (pending Tighty's approval), that would be great.

1 Mercedes down....

[Ironside]

half time at aberdeen and i have good news and bad news regarding FRED bets

aberdeen are 0-3 up at hearts but goodwillie has been rested as the manager thinks he needs a break

his replacement goodwillie has scored twice i really rate goodwillie as a striker and was shocked that rooney got the nod over him last season
hopefully rooney will get straight back in when he is rested but if goodwillie has a run where he is scoring goals it might be a few games on the bench

[TightEnd]

-£40 on bets we could do this weekend for the F1, limited by under-staking by necessity

Winners

£30 Vettel pole
£30 vettel to podium, despite his failure to finish 3rd
£30 Perez wins his group
£30 Bottas top six

Losers

-£60 Rosberg e/w
-£10 kvyat win
-£20 kvyat podium
-£10 ericsson points
-£20 maldonado to reach Q3
-£20 Hulk top six
-£20 Perez top six

[TightEnd]

two retirements for mclaren, 0 points leaves them on 17 we are short at 153

6 points for force india takes them to 69, we are long at 69. any points from here accrue at £2 per point

vettel v ricciardo is sown up 203 v 73

vettel win ex merc is sown up 203 96 ahead of nearest competitior

ricciardo moves ahead of kvyat 73 to 66, we are on kvyat in a season match bet

[TightEnd]

Pre-Race Bets:

Total Safety Car Periods - 2 @ 7/4 with BeeWin. Price is a little too high in my opinion, I would have said 11/8 personally. Suggest £10.

Peter-27 loves F1, but went to extreme lengths to ensure this bet won.

[Peter-27]

Peter love the enthusiasm and the knowledge

Keep it coming

Hehe, thank you very much  

-£40 on bets we could do this weekend for the F1, limited by under-staking by necessity

Winners

£30 Vettel pole
£30 vettel to podium, despite his failure to finish 3rd
£30 Perez wins his group
£30 Bottas top six

Losers

-£60 Rosberg e/w
-£10 kvyat win
-£20 kvyat podium
-£10 ericsson points
-£20 maldonado to reach Q3
-£20 Hulk top six
-£20 Perez top six

Argh, very frustrating, I personally made a profit of £133.52 ...

[BorntoBubble]

Pre-Race Bets:

Total Safety Car Periods - 2 @ 7/4 with BeeWin. Price is a little too high in my opinion, I would have said 11/8 personally. Suggest £10.

Peter-27 loves F1, but went to extreme lengths to ensure this bet won.

How much did you have on this petere, seems extreme to me.

When I heard there was a man on the track I had my suspicions

[Peter-27]

Pre-Race Bets:

Total Safety Car Periods - 2 @ 7/4 with BeeWin. Price is a little too high in my opinion, I would have said 11/8 personally. Suggest £10.

Peter-27 loves F1, but went to extreme lengths to ensure this bet won.

How much did you have on this petere, seems extreme to me.

When I heard there was a man on the track I had my suspicions

Well you've gotta find ways to pass the time.

[Tal]

A bit of a boom or bust one, but I think there may be a spot in the Oakland v Baltimore game, which kicks off at 9:05 tonight, UK time.

Injuries in the offensive lines of both teams mean there is huge pressure on both Quarterbacks imminent. I'd love to be backing sacks but there's no market this year, annoyingly. The defensive line of both sides is better than their edge stoppers, but we don't have a market to exploit that.

The Raiders were woeful against the Bengals (those who backed Andy Dalton's passing yards will recall this with glee). Three things they did an awful lot: sit back rather than blitzing with their defenders (meaning Dalton could take his time with his passes), pass the ball (meaning the Bengals defenders could concentrate on catching it, rather than worrying whether they were going to be up against a solid running back in Latavius Murray) and only throw short passes (only attempted 3 passes over 10 yards in the entire game). Baltimore shape up quite similarly to Cincinnati on both sides of the ball. Let's make the outrageous assumption that the Oakland coaching staff recognise doing the same thing this week will probably end with a broadly similar result.

So, they will blitz more and Flacco completed passes in none of the seven blitzes the Broncos launched at him last week. But we can't exploit that particularly well, so let's leave it for now.

So, they'll run the ball a bit more. Well, Murray has his work cut out, getting through a beastly run stuffer in Nose Tackle, Brandon Williams, but they will have to try and give the opposition two things to think about, else it will be too easy. They can make moves and Murray is competent, plus they will want to offer some protection to Derek Carr, who has had an injury, but will play. While backing Murray to get the overs on yards is a thought, it is also a gamble against a stout defence and relying on an uncertain offensive line.  

So, they will pass more downfield. We expect Michael Crabtree to get a few close catches, because he is a very safe pair of hands and will look to benefit from Derek Carr's ability to find him. Let's look at the first choice receiver, though: Amari Cooper. He was their first round pick and the top wide receiver in the draft this summer. An agile, quick, physical freak. He's getting a proper baptism, though. Last week, he faced Adam Jones of the Bengals, who was as in-your-face as Diego Costa after a few tins of stella artois and was perhaps rather fortunate to have given so few penalties in the process; the NFL has been heavy in protecting receivers of late and Cooper will count himself unlucky not to have put a bigger number up. Here's an in-depth review of his performance: http://www.silverandblackpride.com/2015/9/19/9350831/inside-the-film-room-amari-cooper-had-an-underrated-oakland-raiders-debut

This week, it is not much easier, as he faces Jimmy Smith of the Ravens, who is another elite defensive back. However, that Ravens defense isn't quite the same level as a fit set of Bengals in 2015. He will get makeable catches and he will find opportunities in a game where the team should - should - be more competitive. Cooper's production last week (47 yards) was massively helped by a 24 yard reception from a short pass, where most of the yards were after the catch. The Ravens gave up 68 yards after the catch last week against the Broncos, which was the third fewest.   However, add a catch further downfield that isn't flagged and you easily start looking into the 60 yard game range. After a nervy start last week, I see this being a big game for Cooper, where we can see a talented prospect perform. It isn't a hot, empty the clip bet, but I think there's enough here for a Fred bet.

Click to see full-size image.

The line is 62.5 with the Shouty Red Man. Recommend £22 on the overs at 10/11.

Annoying when you can't find a big bet on the game you reckon the bookies have spent the least time on, but there's enough here for a sweat, I reckon.