Strictly is pretty tough this week. Halloween week is one of three 'Special' weeks in the series (movie week and Blackpool being the other two). As I mentioned week 3, the content tends to be overwhelmed by the show on these nights, the judges get a little kinder and the hair, makeup and costumes can overwhelm everything else.
At the very top, a really good dance can see tens and I would not be surprised if we saw a few of those tonight.
The thing is, the top half of the field is very close and I can see a few finishing on tied scores. This gets more significant as the field thins week on week, as the split points make the people more vulnerable to dropping into the dance off. This could be a week where a surprise name lands in the red zone.
That said, if they get 28, finish Midtable and then wind up in the dance off, they'll likely beat whoever they face, so we should be looking for the likely candidates in the lower echelons to join them. The two obvious candidates have the most problematic dances for them...
Jeremy is 7/1 to go with his salsa, but he'd be 1/10 against anyone but Carol and 1/3 against her. He is improving week on week and is clearly working very hard. But this is a horrible dance for a tall bloke with little rhythm.
Carol is 5/2 (unless you have a winner account) and has a rumba, which is going to take a panning from the judges. Len giving a 5 is my prediction, which gives you an idea (for a bit of fun, I'll go 3, 5, 5, 4 for 17).
Carol is 15/8 to be the lowest scorer. It's a two horse race. As much as others may struggle, they're the only two who should threaten to go under 20. Both might get 22 but I would not be surprised at all to see 17-21 for each. The 15/8 is a modest bet.
Katie will be ok as she has a Paso that Anton has very cleverly chosen the Phantom of the Opera theme to. I say cleverly because it isn't a fiery Paso song that you would expect the woman to get heavily into the floor to. It will be more balletic and more flamenco, which will suit Katie's more prim and elegant style. She won't score highly but I suspect she will be ok.
Kirsty is doing a Charleston. Brendan LOVES Halloween week and Kirsty has bags of energy for this dance. She also has the all-important swivel action. Again, won't threaten to top the leaderboard in all likelihood but may surprise in getting north of 28. Favourite for elimination is wrong.
Jamelia I still don't get and she's a bit clunky in her jive footage. Still, the Rocky Horror Picture Show theme is about as memorable a song as it gets, so she only needs to do a few things well to get votes.
My outsider to get to the bottom is Georgia but 40/1 to go is only a smidge inviting. She has a quick tango and I'm not convinced her performance will be better than middle of the road. The problem is you have to find someone to do better than her in the dance off and that's going to require someone like Kirsty to have a slightly over criticised performance and do better in the dance off. It's doable but 33/1 is about the money for what is more like a double than a single bet, so 40/1 isn't much better.
All of which means Carol at 5/2 to go is the best price of this Strictly weekend. Recommend £40 with BMU| Click to see full-size image. |
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