Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

I've spent the last 3 hours traipsing through stats, injuries and match ups across the league (because what else would you be doing on a Sunday morning before Andrew Marr starts?) and there's not an awful lot grabbing my attention. Bye weeks and close matchups, with big players either injured or returning from injuries, combine to make some games pretty tough for the punters and the bookies' 10% edge looms over us like a monstrous, Halloween shadow.

Nevertheless, a contrarian play has stuck its neck out gingerly.

The Dallas Cowboys are (checks that Tighty isn't around...) in rather a mess at the moment. Their running back threw a wobbly in the week and the team is struggling to remind itself it made the playoffs last year.

It is, however, fifth in the league against opposing Tight Ends (41 yards per game). Jimmy Graham plays for the Seattle Seahawks and he's rather good. Seattle have started to throw the ball to him, too. That's made the news all across the NFL and everyone knows he managed 131 receiving yards the other week.

However, he will be heavily watched this weekend by a team that is good at doing that. 5 out of 7 times this season, Graham has gone number the 60.5 yards the Shouty red man is offering. This feels like a good UNDER.

If we can't get a bet on with them, under 58.5 with Billy Mountain is fine.

Seattle v Dallas. Jimmy Graham under 60.5 receiving yards. £33 at 10/11.

[hector62]

Morning mr t.

Today england play rugby versus new zealand, in the league variation. England have been made favourites, i think mainly because of a number of key injuries to nz players. However a number of the england players looked out of form at the end of the superleague season, and some haven't played a competetive match for over a month so there is little form to go on. I think england have made a big error in not selecting luke gale at scrum half so creativity will be lacking. I expect new zealand to win a tight encounter.

Suggest £15 new zealand to win at 11 to 8 with coral or ladbrokes.

[tikay]

Morning mr t.

Today england play rugby versus new zealand, in the league variation. England have been made favourites, i think mainly because of a number of key injuries to nz players. However a number of the england players looked out of form at the end of the superleague season, and some haven't played a competetive match for over a month so there is little form to go on. I think england have made a big error in not selecting luke gale at scrum half so creativity will be lacking. I expect new zealand to win a tight encounter.

Suggest £15 new zealand to win at 11 to 8 with coral or ladbrokes.

Good morning hector.

Tighty is AWOL, so I've got the rudder this morning.

We have exactly what you ordered - £15 @ 11/8, Corals, New Zealand to beat England.

Thank you.

BET PLACED

[Tal]

For those wanting an interest in the London game this afternoon, I really like the Lions against the spread today. Having cleared out an offensive coaching unit with an insanely predictable playbook, the Lions will do sensible things this weekend like not always throwing on first down to the same player. The Chiefs have improved slightly over the last couple of weeks in defense but they can't be such significant favourites over Detroit.

If you want a first touchdown player, Eric Ebron is emerging as a credible threat this season and the quarterback, Matthew Stafford, has been finding his hands regularly in dangerous situations. Three touchdowns this season and I can certainly see him getting a fourth today, as he will never be double marked in the End Zone while Megatron and Tate are around.

16/1 first touchdown is worth an Ayrton Senna.

[tikay]

I've spent the last 3 hours traipsing through stats, injuries and match ups across the league (because what else would you be doing on a Sunday morning before Andrew Marr starts?) and there's not an awful lot grabbing my attention. Bye weeks and close matchups, with big players either injured or returning from injuries, combine to make some games pretty tough for the punters and the bookies' 10% edge looms over us like a monstrous, Halloween shadow.

Nevertheless, a contrarian play has stuck its neck out gingerly.

The Dallas Cowboys are (checks that Tighty isn't around...) in rather a mess at the moment. Their running back threw a wobbly in the week and the team is struggling to remind itself it made the playoffs last year.

It is, however, fifth in the league against opposing Tight Ends (41 yards per game). Jimmy Graham plays for the Seattle Seahawks and he's rather good. Seattle have started to throw the ball to him, too. That's made the news all across the NFL and everyone knows he managed 131 receiving yards the other week.

However, he will be heavily watched this weekend by a team that is good at doing that. 5 out of 7 times this season, Graham has gone number the 60.5 yards the Shouty red man is offering. This feels like a good UNDER.

If we can't get a bet on with them, under 58.5 with Billy Mountain is fine.

Seattle v Dallas. Jimmy Graham under 60.5 receiving yards. £33 at 10/11.

Tal moves (Billy) mountains, it seems - the line is now 58.5 yards.

Yes, no?

[tikay]

For those wanting an interest in the London game this afternoon, I really like the Lions against the spread today. Having cleared out an offensive coaching unit with an insanely predictable playbook, the Lions will do sensible things this weekend like not always throwing on first down to the same player. The Chiefs have improved slightly over the last couple of weeks in defense but they can't be such significant favourites over Detroit.

If you want a first touchdown player, Eric Ebron is emerging as a credible threat this season and the quarterback, Matthew Stafford, has been finding his hands regularly in dangerous situations. Three touchdowns this season and I can certainly see him getting a fourth today, as he will never be double marked in the End Zone while Megatron and Tate are around.

16/1 first touchdown is worth an Ayrton Senna.

Thank you Tal bloke, we have exactly that.

£10 @ 16/1, Wm Hill, Eric Ebron, First TD scorer, Lions @ Kansas.


BET PLACED

[Tal]

I've spent the last 3 hours traipsing through stats, injuries and match ups across the league (because what else would you be doing on a Sunday morning before Andrew Marr starts?) and there's not an awful lot grabbing my attention. Bye weeks and close matchups, with big players either injured or returning from injuries, combine to make some games pretty tough for the punters and the bookies' 10% edge looms over us like a monstrous, Halloween shadow.

Nevertheless, a contrarian play has stuck its neck out gingerly.

The Dallas Cowboys are (checks that Tighty isn't around...) in rather a mess at the moment. Their running back threw a wobbly in the week and the team is struggling to remind itself it made the playoffs last year.

It is, however, fifth in the league against opposing Tight Ends (41 yards per game). Jimmy Graham plays for the Seattle Seahawks and he's rather good. Seattle have started to throw the ball to him, too. That's made the news all across the NFL and everyone knows he managed 131 receiving yards the other week.

However, he will be heavily watched this weekend by a team that is good at doing that. 5 out of 7 times this season, Graham has gone number the 60.5 yards the Shouty red man is offering. This feels like a good UNDER.

If we can't get a bet on with them, under 58.5 with Billy Mountain is fine.

Seattle v Dallas. Jimmy Graham under 60.5 receiving yards. £33 at 10/11.

Tal moves (Billy) mountains, it seems - the line is now 58.5 yards.

Yes, no?

60.5 was with Lad Chaps. If they've moved down to 58.5, that's fine, too.

[horseplayer]

Cheers all

Not been feeling to great again so just watched the heat.

Despite the prices not going as I expected without doubt the ground hindered golden horn who ran brilliantly considering he seemed to be hating it totally a fine horse

[tikay]

I've spent the last 3 hours traipsing through stats, injuries and match ups across the league (because what else would you be doing on a Sunday morning before Andrew Marr starts?) and there's not an awful lot grabbing my attention. Bye weeks and close matchups, with big players either injured or returning from injuries, combine to make some games pretty tough for the punters and the bookies' 10% edge looms over us like a monstrous, Halloween shadow.

Nevertheless, a contrarian play has stuck its neck out gingerly.

The Dallas Cowboys are (checks that Tighty isn't around...) in rather a mess at the moment. Their running back threw a wobbly in the week and the team is struggling to remind itself it made the playoffs last year.

It is, however, fifth in the league against opposing Tight Ends (41 yards per game). Jimmy Graham plays for the Seattle Seahawks and he's rather good. Seattle have started to throw the ball to him, too. That's made the news all across the NFL and everyone knows he managed 131 receiving yards the other week.

However, he will be heavily watched this weekend by a team that is good at doing that. 5 out of 7 times this season, Graham has gone number the 60.5 yards the Shouty red man is offering. This feels like a good UNDER.

If we can't get a bet on with them, under 58.5 with Billy Mountain is fine.

Seattle v Dallas. Jimmy Graham under 60.5 receiving yards. £33 at 10/11.

Tal moves (Billy) mountains, it seems - the line is now 58.5 yards.

Yes, no?

60.5 was with Lad Chaps. If they've moved down to 58.5, that's fine, too.

OK, well Lads restricted us to just £11, marv.

So we have £11 @ 10/11, Ladbrokes, UNDER 60.5 yards.

And £22 @ 10/11, Wm Hill, UNDER 58.5 yards.

Bound to be 59 now......


2 BETS PLACED

[Peter-27]

F1 bets:

Race Winner - Lewis Hamilton is 11/8 with betterway (or 6/4 on the exchange) and Nico Rosberg is 13/10 at 365. Both spots are good, you could do both of them if you wish. I have no idea what to bet on with this to be honest. I'd say Lewis has a 45% chance of winning and Nico a 40% chance. Thoughts? Need some guidance from the more experienced punters please.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/winner -> Lewis 11/8 & 6/4
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/enhanced-win-only -> Nico 13/10

Top Six Finish - Sergio Perez @ 9/4 with skyeBet, totes, batfred & paddys. Great price, way too high, suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/top-6-finish

Group B (RIC/BOT/MAS/RAI) - Valtteri Bottas @ 10/3 with 365. Given Red Bull's reliability concerns, I don't see why Bottas is priced this highly. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/group-b

Group D (ALO/ERI/NAS/BUT) - Marcus Ericsson @ 9/4 with 365. The McLaren is quicker than Sauber this weekend. However, Ericsson starts ahead and the McLaren is unreliable which makes 9/4 value. Suggest £15.

www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/group-d

Highest Scoring Team - Red Bull @ 10/1 with brokes. I think 10/1 is a shade too much here, should be more like 8/1. It would need a Mercedes to retire though. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/highest-scoring-team

[tikay]

F1 bets:

Race Winner - Lewis Hamilton is 11/8 with betterway (or 6/4 on the exchange) and Nico Rosberg is 13/10 at 365. Both spots are good, you could do both of them if you wish. I have no idea what to bet on with this to be honest. I'd say Lewis has a 45% chance of winning and Nico a 40% chance. Thoughts? Need some guidance from the more experienced punters please.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/winner -> Lewis 11/8 & 6/4
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/enhanced-win-only -> Nico 13/10

Top Six Finish - Sergio Perez @ 9/4 with skyeBet, totes, batfred & paddys. Great price, way too high, suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/top-6-finish

Group B (RIC/BOT/MAS/RAI) - Valtteri Bottas @ 10/3 with 365. Given Red Bull's reliability concerns, I don't see why Bottas is priced this highly. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/group-b

Group D (ALO/ERI/NAS/BUT) - Marcus Ericsson @ 9/4 with 365. The McLaren is quicker than Sauber this weekend. However, Ericsson starts ahead and the McLaren is unreliable which makes 9/4 value. Suggest £15.

www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/group-d

Highest Scoring Team - Red Bull @ 10/1 with brokes. I think 10/1 is a shade too much here, should be more like 8/1. It would need a Mercedes to retire though. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/highest-scoring-team

Thank you Peter.

I'll do my best to get these on shortly, but I'm fearfully busy today, as I'm heading off for a 9 day business trip early doors in the morning, (no rest for the wicked), & so I'm all over the shop today.

I'll get on what I can though, once I've sorted some other stuff.

[Doobs]

Am busy myself but 40% =6/4 so 13/10 Nico wouldn't be a bet. 

[tikay]

F1 bets:

Race Winner - Lewis Hamilton is 11/8 with betterway (or 6/4 on the exchange) and Nico Rosberg is 13/10 at 365. Both spots are good, you could do both of them if you wish. I have no idea what to bet on with this to be honest. I'd say Lewis has a 45% chance of winning and Nico a 40% chance. Thoughts? Need some guidance from the more experienced punters please.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/winner -> Lewis 11/8 & 6/4
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/enhanced-win-only -> Nico 13/10

Top Six Finish - Sergio Perez @ 9/4 with skyeBet, totes, batfred & paddys. Great price, way too high, suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/top-6-finish

Group B (RIC/BOT/MAS/RAI) - Valtteri Bottas @ 10/3 with 365. Given Red Bull's reliability concerns, I don't see why Bottas is priced this highly. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/group-b

Group D (ALO/ERI/NAS/BUT) - Marcus Ericsson @ 9/4 with 365. The McLaren is quicker than Sauber this weekend. However, Ericsson starts ahead and the McLaren is unreliable which makes 9/4 value. Suggest £15.

www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/group-d

Highest Scoring Team - Red Bull @ 10/1 with brokes. I think 10/1 is a shade too much here, should be more like 8/1. It would need a Mercedes to retire though. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/mexican-grand-prix/highest-scoring-team

Have ignored the Lewis/Nico bets for now, as I don't understand the numbers. (See Doobs post). 

We have £20 @ 9/4, Betfred, Sergio Perez, Top 6 Finish.

We cannot get on with 365 for the Group B or D Bets.

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM - Ladbrokes restricted us to £5, so we took that, £5 @ 10/1.

2 BETS PLACED

 

[peejaytwo]

the way John Higgins is playing i cant see him been 16/1 for the UK Champ at York by 24th Nov.
also 25/1+ for the Worlds is big but you hope his form last for much longer of course. (40/1 at BWINGE per oddschecker is obv an account closer)

[Peter-27]

Am busy myself but 40% =6/4 so 13/10 Nico wouldn't be a bet. 

£25 on Lewis at 11/8 it is then!