Tips for Tikay

[Karabiner]

Martial, Rooney, Wilson, Fellaini are all out for United.
So who plays up front? Memphis perhaps? He can be backed at 15/2 1st goalscorer.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/watford-v-man-utd/first-goalscorer

given Man U's defence and LVG's approach and Watford being someone goal shy against the bigger sides, i see BTTS No is 8/11 and under 2.5 goals 4/7

both very low quotes in a yes/no over/under market, suggesting ther market is telling us 2-0, 1-0, 1-1, 0-0 type results

thinking out loud, should we really be backing FGS markets in such a low expectancy game for goals?

I quite like 0-0 here.

[baldock92]

Martial, Rooney, Wilson, Fellaini are all out for United.
So who plays up front? Memphis perhaps? He can be backed at 15/2 1st goalscorer.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/watford-v-man-utd/first-goalscorer

given Man U's defence and LVG's approach and Watford being someone goal shy against the bigger sides, i see BTTS No is 8/11 and under 2.5 goals 4/7

both very low quotes in a yes/no over/under market, suggesting ther market is telling us 2-0, 1-0, 1-1, 0-0 type results

thinking out loud, should we really be backing FGS markets in such a low expectancy game for goals?

I quite like 0-0 here.

Have to agree

[MattyHollis]

Greyhounds tonight - the Essex Vase begins, 575m around the tight Romford track.

Race selections :

7.31 Five Star Clipper 1/2
7.46 Jet Stream Sound 6/4
8.02 Jet Stream Jack 7/2
8.18 Noirs Allen 4/1
8.34 Farneys Cookie 10/3
8.50 Deanridge Pennys 3/1



Recommendations:

7.46 Jet Stream Sound 6/4 B365 £100  - If the dog is fit it wins, will be shorter tonight i'd imagine.

8.18 Noirs Allen 4/1 365/Hills/Paddys £50  - Most open heat there is and this dog has ran well at the track, needs to clear T1 but has enough pace to the bend to hopefully do so.

8.34 Farneys Cookie 10/3 Ladbrokes  £60  - Make sure market shows reserve runner in T4, Bubbly Beauty has been withdrawn and replaced by Liberine Louis. Wanted to tip up Beauty in this at a big price but the withdrawal gives Farneys Cookie a chance to see some daylight.

8.50 Deanridge Pennys 3/1 Hills £75 - Highly respected dog with a lot of pace, 3/1 won't be there tonight either.


Antepost recommendations:

Mossvale Ace 16/1 Freds/Lads/BFSB - Tonights draw is tough however this dog is full of pace and improving every run, top 3 through will help it's cause in qualifying then will need to get a better draw in future. Definitely got the pace to win any race though. £50ew top 41/4

Deanridge Pennys 20/1 Lads - Chance to improve with each look round the track, hopefully starting tonight. £30ew top 4 1/4.
 

[TheDazzler]

Martial, Rooney, Wilson, Fellaini are all out for United.
So who plays up front? Memphis perhaps? He can be backed at 15/2 1st goalscorer.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/watford-v-man-utd/first-goalscorer

given Man U's defence and LVG's approach and Watford being someone goal shy against the bigger sides, i see BTTS No is 8/11 and under 2.5 goals 4/7

both very low quotes in a yes/no over/under market, suggesting ther market is telling us 2-0, 1-0, 1-1, 0-0 type results

thinking out loud, should we really be backing FGS markets in such a low expectancy game for goals?

I quite like 0-0 here.

Have to agree

Yeah, there has to be so way of exploiting the fact that United are short favs all the time combined with their lack of goal scoring prowess. I thought WBA was it last week but Watford are similarly strong defensively at home.

[arbboy]

The best way to exploit it is to find old school firms who work off charts which are out of date and don't take into account goal expecation just the price of the fav.  1-0 2-0 in games like this are always too big with these types of firms.  

I read on twitter somewhere that manure have never been shorter for under goals in EPL history than they are this weekend.  I think it is getting to a point now where the 0-0s and unders are becoming a lay tbh.  Think the market is more than aware of it and it has probably gone too far.

[TightEnd]

that lot is just under £500 and we don't have big balances to absorb that i am afraid, so going to scale back for that reason and see what we can get on

7.46 Bet365 no good. would you do 5/4 at betfred or leave it?

8.18 Noirs Allen Romford 20:18 Winner
4/1
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £125.00

8.34 Single
20:34 Romford
Farneys Cookie
Race winner
Odds: 10/3
1 line at £30.00
Total stake for this bet: £30.00
Potential return: £130.00
Time: 20/11/2015 14:30:41
Receipt No: O/142640973/0001005

8.50 Deanridge Pennys Romford 20:50 Winner
3/1
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £200.00

ante post

Mitch Millward Essex Vase
Outright Betting
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4   Mossvale Ace   16/1   
Total stake   £ 50.00
Estimated return   £ 550.00
Full stake   £ 50.00
Full estimated return   £ 550.00

restricted

Deanridge Pennys Essex Vase Winner
20/1 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £270.00
 

[MattyHollis]

that lot is just under £500 and we don't have big balances to absorb that i am afraid, so going to scale back for that reason and see what we can get on
 

Yeah I have just put up basically what i'm betting, so follow/take your pick on which ones you want or scale down amounts you think etc, and I also wasn't sure where you could/could not get on.

Leave the 5/4, unless you really want to bet it.



All the racing is live tonight on RPGTV, which is on sky channel 212 or online on the racing post website. But i'll keep you informed anyway.

[MattyHollis]

that lot is just under £500 and we don't have big balances to absorb that i am afraid, so going to scale back for that reason and see what we can get on
 

Yeah I have just put up basically what i'm betting, so follow/take your pick on which ones you want or scale down amounts you think etc, and I also wasn't sure where you could/could not get on.

Leave the 5/4, unless you really want to bet it.



All the racing is live tonight on RPGTV, which is on sky channel 212 or online on the racing post website. But i'll keep you informed anyway.

On the undercard I like two more at fair prices for anyone interested - although i'll be hanging about for the exchange later before I back them as there is potential they go off bigger....

906 All about pennys - 6/1
956 Roadside Rocky - 11/2

[arbboy]

Martial, Rooney, Wilson, Fellaini are all out for United.
So who plays up front? Memphis perhaps? He can be backed at 15/2 1st goalscorer.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/watford-v-man-utd/first-goalscorer

given Man U's defence and LVG's approach and Watford being someone goal shy against the bigger sides, i see BTTS No is 8/11 and under 2.5 goals 4/7

both very low quotes in a yes/no over/under market, suggesting ther market is telling us 2-0, 1-0, 1-1, 0-0 type results

thinking out loud, should we really be backing FGS markets in such a low expectancy game for goals?

Backing FGS markets makes very little difference whatever the goal expectation is in a game.  Betting FGS ew and/or to score at any time makes a huge difference.  Important not to confuse the two.  The difference between a 0-0 being 7/1 and 12/1 makes very little difference to the fgs market.

[MattyHollis]

that lot is just under £500 and we don't have big balances to absorb that i am afraid, so going to scale back for that reason and see what we can get on
 

Yeah I have just put up basically what i'm betting, so follow/take your pick on which ones you want or scale down amounts you think etc, and I also wasn't sure where you could/could not get on.

Leave the 5/4, unless you really want to bet it.



All the racing is live tonight on RPGTV, which is on sky channel 212 or online on the racing post website. But i'll keep you informed anyway.

On the undercard I like two more at fair prices for anyone interested - although i'll be hanging about for the exchange later before I back them as there is potential they go off bigger....

906 All about pennys - 6/1
956 Roadside Rocky - 11/2

Sorry for another post but would advise adding Noirs Allen to the antepost books too at 50/1 (Ladbrokes/365), say £10ew. I fancy it tonight, should it win it won't be 50/1 tomorrow, and it's the only runner Chris Allsopp has sent down for the event tonight which interests me.

[McGlashan]

question for mcgalashan or bazzaboy. will you be able to get odds on an English title fight? a young traveller lad called isaac lowe is boxing for the English featherweight title on sept 5th vs Jamie speight. ive watched Isaac over the last 10 years since he boxed with my son in the N/W ABA finals. and he is the best amateur i seen since amir khan, was on another level to anyone else i seen him box 20 plus times as an amateur and he is now 10 and 0 as a pro, hes been sparring with josh warrington this week and hes been sparring with scott quigg and just looks so comfortable at that level. he will beat Jamie easily imo and is a max bet if we can get on at 1/2 or above

Very very unlikely anyone will price it up and no chance you will get 1/2 if they do, more like 1/10. A few years back you used to get prices for small hall shows (I'm assuming this will be on one) but nowadays it doesn't happen sadly. Unless it's on the undercard of a Hearn or Warren show then it has no chance of being priced up.

cheers bazza, hes going to be on the josh warrington undercard at leeds for this, it is on sky sports, so maybe that will get it priced up?

Okay, so it is likely to get priced up. Boxrec didn't have the fight listed as being on the Leeds card. It looks like they both usually fight on Steve Goodwin small hall shows and that there's been a deal done to help fill out a weak Eddie Hearn card.

The thing is, at 10 and 0, Lowe is expected to beat someone who is 13-7. You're unlikely to see odds of 1/2, but it's not to say the bookies will price it up correctly.

Engy's man Isaac Lowe is indeed a very classy prospect and at 1/8 was priced up accordingly versus Speight (res 9th round stoppage). Funnily enough we can get 1/2 on Saturday versus an opponent who's not much better than Speight but happens to have a better W&L column thanks to soft eastern European opponents.

This fight is a small test, there'll be some learning on the job, but it's a test he's expected to pass with flying colours. Rec £80@1/2 with Lads or VC http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/isaac-lowe-v-ryan-doyle/winner

[TightEnd]

that lot is just under £500 and we don't have big balances to absorb that i am afraid, so going to scale back for that reason and see what we can get on
 

Yeah I have just put up basically what i'm betting, so follow/take your pick on which ones you want or scale down amounts you think etc, and I also wasn't sure where you could/could not get on.

Leave the 5/4, unless you really want to bet it.



All the racing is live tonight on RPGTV, which is on sky channel 212 or online on the racing post website. But i'll keep you informed anyway.

On the undercard I like two more at fair prices for anyone interested - although i'll be hanging about for the exchange later before I back them as there is potential they go off bigger....

906 All about pennys - 6/1
956 Roadside Rocky - 11/2

Sorry for another post but would advise adding Noirs Allen to the antepost books too at 50/1 (Ladbrokes/365), say £10ew. I fancy it tonight, should it win it won't be 50/1 tomorrow, and it's the only runner Chris Allsopp has sent down for the event tonight which interests me.

Noirs Allen Essex Vase Winner
50/1 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £645.00

[TightEnd]

question for mcgalashan or bazzaboy. will you be able to get odds on an English title fight? a young traveller lad called isaac lowe is boxing for the English featherweight title on sept 5th vs Jamie speight. ive watched Isaac over the last 10 years since he boxed with my son in the N/W ABA finals. and he is the best amateur i seen since amir khan, was on another level to anyone else i seen him box 20 plus times as an amateur and he is now 10 and 0 as a pro, hes been sparring with josh warrington this week and hes been sparring with scott quigg and just looks so comfortable at that level. he will beat Jamie easily imo and is a max bet if we can get on at 1/2 or above

Very very unlikely anyone will price it up and no chance you will get 1/2 if they do, more like 1/10. A few years back you used to get prices for small hall shows (I'm assuming this will be on one) but nowadays it doesn't happen sadly. Unless it's on the undercard of a Hearn or Warren show then it has no chance of being priced up.

cheers bazza, hes going to be on the josh warrington undercard at leeds for this, it is on sky sports, so maybe that will get it priced up?

Okay, so it is likely to get priced up. Boxrec didn't have the fight listed as being on the Leeds card. It looks like they both usually fight on Steve Goodwin small hall shows and that there's been a deal done to help fill out a weak Eddie Hearn card.

The thing is, at 10 and 0, Lowe is expected to beat someone who is 13-7. You're unlikely to see odds of 1/2, but it's not to say the bookies will price it up correctly.

Engy's man Isaac Lowe is indeed a very classy prospect and at 1/8 was priced up accordingly versus Speight (res 9th round stoppage). Funnily enough we can get 1/2 on Saturday versus an opponent who's not much better than Speight but happens to have a better W&L column thanks to soft eastern European opponents.

This fight is a small test, there'll be some learning on the job, but it's a test he's expected to pass with flying colours. Rec £80@1/2 with Lads or VC http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/isaac-lowe-v-ryan-doyle/winner

£80 is too much for us on lads at the moment, £4k book and big down month has smacked the balance

in a few winners time, maybe

Isaac Lowe Lowe v Doyle Winner
1/2
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Returns: £60.00

[Tal]

Romford? Pah! Ray Parlour country.



Proper dogs is on in the Midlands. Must be. I've just seen Gary Newbon in Brum and yesterday HMTQ was visiting New Street Station, so I expect she'll be enjoying the graded card at Hall Green this evening.

Click to see full-size image.

[MattyHollis]

Romford? Pah! Ray Parlour country.



Proper dogs is on in the Midlands. Must be. I've just seen Gary Newbon in Brum and yesterday HMTQ was visiting New Street Station, so I expect she'll be enjoying the graded card at Hall Green this evening.

Ha, i've never actually been to Hall Green myself.

Enjoy!