Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

first three winners at hove all big prices from t6 and the last one hosed up after falling out and was followed home by t5 at an equally big price.  Def worth watching future races as it appears all wides.  

t6 went lame in 4th race and was never a factor.  4 and 5 flew home out wide after t1 went 12 lengths clear at half way.

[kukushkin88]

I think its likely to be low scoring. I wont lie, I dont really rate the Bills, and the way the Kansas D is playing, I think that the chiefs to win by about 7 points feels about right to me.

It's one of those days where I fancy some underdogs. Denver at home to the Pats, with them down to their bare bones on offense and Brock Osweiler not being terrible. I also fancy the Saints to beat Houston and Tampa to win in Indy.

Some delicious spreads out there for a contrarian like me.

I like the Bills today, I think Kansas are flattered by recent results, are better against pass first O's. West is out for KC. I'm sure this an OK spot for a small bet. I'm not sure New Orleans are really a bet but I do agree their chance is slightly underrated. Always mindful this might happen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tCuj7a9XGo

"All I know, you mess with me you've got problems" :-)

[fatcatstu]

I think its likely to be low scoring. I wont lie, I dont really rate the Bills, and the way the Kansas D is playing, I think that the chiefs to win by about 7 points feels about right to me.

It's one of those days where I fancy some underdogs. Denver at home to the Pats, with them down to their bare bones on offense and Brock Osweiler not being terrible. I also fancy the Saints to beat Houston and Tampa to win in Indy.

Some delicious spreads out there for a contrarian like me.

I like the Bills today, I think Kansas are flattered by recent results, are better against pass first O's. West is out for KC. I'm sure this an OK spot for a small bet. I'm not sure New Orleans are really a bet but I do agree their chance is slightly underrated. Always mindful this might happen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tCuj7a9XGo

"All I know, you mess with me you've got problems" :-)

That man will surely go down as the best defensive player of all time by the time he retires.

[arbboy]

another easy 654 tricast at hove 6 lengths clear of the railers.

[HutchGF]

Fancy Mensr to see off Ian White this afternoon. He was in fine form against Michael Smith last round and clearly got in his head with his slow, deliberate play.

It's been a weekend of upsets and I fancy Mensr to provide one more.

Recommend £20 if we can get on at 2.1/2.0.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/players-championships/mensur-suljovic-v-ian-white/winner

[arbboy]

8/13 fav at Fairyhouse in first in 5 minutes is a cracking ew bet.  well under win and place on bf compared to 8/13 at 365.  be quick.

bf sp win 1.53 place 1.07.  More profit left on the table.   Getting very boring this week watching the layers just keep getting there on these bets having the worse of it every time. zzzzzzzzzzzz

Same again at Leics 1pm.  Let's try again.  Another 4/6 ew value poke which is 1/20 to place on the machine.  Lovely getting 1/7 about 1/20 shots (the 1/20 is probably too big as well being held up by the arbers).  Shame the win part of the bet never cops.

bf sp 1.53 and 1.05 this time.  Let's see how these luck box layers escape this time from their awful hole.

[TightEnd]

Fancy Mensr to see off Ian White this afternoon. He was in fine form against Michael Smith last round and clearly got in his head with his slow, deliberate play.

It's been a weekend of upsets and I fancy Mensr to provide one more.

Recommend £20 if we can get on at 2.1/2.0.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/players-championships/mensur-suljovic-v-ian-white/winner

£20.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Suljovic v White
Match Betting
   Suljovic, Mensur   EVS   
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 40.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 40.00

[Karabiner]

A lot to like about that first winner at Leopardstown, Rashaan.

The size of a pony but really jumped well attacking the hurdles with a lot of verve. It reminded me a lot of the gone but not forgotten Katchit.

[arbboy]

Does anyone else back these odds on ew good things or just me? Who is brave enough to admit they like ev but look stupid when they keep getting beat!  Does anyone back them ew and lay the win bet back at a small profit and just keep all the value in the place to reduce variance? or just back and lay win and place and take the easy money but give betfair 2-5% of the ev in commission as an insurance policy?

[HutchGF]

Does anyone else back these odds on ew good things or just me? Who is brave enough to admit they like ev but look stupid when they keep getting beat!  Does anyone back them ew and lay the win bet back at a small profit and just keep all the value in the place to reduce variance? or just back and lay win and place and take the easy money but give betfair 2-5% of the ev in commission as an insurance policy?

I think this kind of bet is the difference between pro punters like yourself and hobby punters like me. I'd never think of doing this and that's why I keep up to date with this thread and the value the solid advice on offer.

[peejaytwo]

In the 1.00 Leic I bet King Kayf in an ew double taking Hills 11/1 early price. As it was 2.2 to place I knew it wouldn't be any bigger from the live show. So although I was getting ev on the place part the win odds were 20 on betfair.
Am I giving too much away on the win part Arb?
As a bit of a contradiction I was gonna bet the second fav ew at 9/4 as the place odds were 1.15 I the machine. Turned it down as the win was 3.7 on bf.
I really ought to look into this more as its the uncompetitive novice hurdle season.

[arbboy]

The 2nd fav ew is a much better bet than the 3rd fav in that spot.  ew doubles on the odds on jollies are a great bet as well in the two races here.

[HutchGF]

Fancy Mensr to see off Ian White this afternoon. He was in fine form against Michael Smith last round and clearly got in his head with his slow, deliberate play.

It's been a weekend of upsets and I fancy Mensr to provide one more.

Recommend £20 if we can get on at 2.1/2.0.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/players-championships/mensur-suljovic-v-ian-white/winner

£20.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Suljovic v White
Match Betting
   Suljovic, Mensur   EVS   
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 40.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 40.00

Mensur wins comfortably 10-6. His finishing was outstanding and White never really got close to breaking him.

He plays the winner of Lewis/Whitlock later. Lewis will hate playing him and will struggle with the slow pace.

I'll keep an eye out when it's priced up and post later.

[arbboy]

ding ding round 3.  220 Carl.  Not as good on the fav as the others this one.  Slightly more competitive.

fav was friendless on the machine.  Never drifted at the track to the same extreme. 

[sonour]

Does anyone else back these odds on ew good things or just me? Who is brave enough to admit they like ev but look stupid when they keep getting beat!  Does anyone back them ew and lay the win bet back at a small profit and just keep all the value in the place to reduce variance? or just back and lay win and place and take the easy money but give betfair 2-5% of the ev in commission as an insurance policy?

Guilty as charged.

I started off arbing the win and place part but as all the value is on the bookie side your Betfair account is always going to be down after commission.

So mostly now I let both parts ride unless I get huge amounts on.