Tips for Tikay

[sonour]

Does anyone else back these odds on ew good things or just me? Who is brave enough to admit they like ev but look stupid when they keep getting beat!  Does anyone back them ew and lay the win bet back at a small profit and just keep all the value in the place to reduce variance? or just back and lay win and place and take the easy money but give betfair 2-5% of the ev in commission as an insurance policy?

Guilty as charged.

I started off arbing the win and place part but as all the value is on the bookie side your Betfair account is always going to be down after commission.

So mostly now I let both parts ride unless I get huge amounts on.

And you can get large amounts on each way in the shops on the odds on shots. And it also helps because the shop staff think you are a complete mug backing odds on each way.

I just say ' I need to get something back mate, I've done my brains this week '

[TightEnd]

things to watch for in the final grand prix in the season, if anyone is interesting in the thread's outstanding positions

Alonso not to win a 2015 race at 11/8

season points: Kvyat over Ricciardo at 9/2. Kvyat is 10 points ahead but has qualified four spots behind in this race

Force India have 120 points. We have £2 a point at 69. Perez has qualified 4th

McLaren have 27 points. we sold £1 a point at 153...
--

race bets are as follows

abu dhabi top six   perez   11/8   50
abu dhabi podium   perez   16/1   20
abu dhabi grand prix   rosberg   5/4   25
abu dhabi grand prix points   sainz   6/4   20
Group D (BUT/ALO/NAS/ERI)   nasr   2/1   25
Group D (BUT/ALO/NAS/ERI)   ericcson   9/2   25
         

Force india made up 136, profit at £2 a point of £133

mclaren made up 27, profit at £1 a point of £126

total due to tikay £259 from the spreadbets


--

kvyat beat ricciardo profit of £90

alonso profit of £27.50

--

rosberg win, profit of £31

perez top six profit of £68

perez podium, sainz finished 11th and button beat the saubers , losses of £90

[arbboy]

Does anyone else back these odds on ew good things or just me? Who is brave enough to admit they like ev but look stupid when they keep getting beat!  Does anyone back them ew and lay the win bet back at a small profit and just keep all the value in the place to reduce variance? or just back and lay win and place and take the easy money but give betfair 2-5% of the ev in commission as an insurance policy?

Guilty as charged.

I started off arbing the win and place part but as all the value is on the bookie side your Betfair account is always going to be down after commission.

So mostly now I let both parts ride unless I get huge amounts on.

And you can get large amounts on each way in the shops on the odds on shots. And it also helps because the shop staff think you are a complete mug backing odds on each way.

I just say ' I need to get something back mate, I've done my brains this week '

You are not lying this week though.  Last 8 odds on shots i have backed ew have all lost!  Quite incredible.  Defies maths.

[peejaytwo]

ding ding round 3.  220 Carl.  Not as good on the fav as the others this one.  Slightly more competitive.

Was on Freddie at 7/1 in the second leg of the ew double. Any idea what the win odds were on the machine?

[Peter-27]

things to watch for in the final grand prix in the season, if anyone is interesting in the thread's outstanding positions

Alonso not to win a 2015 race at 11/8

season points: Kvyat over Ricciardo at 9/2. Kvyat is 10 points ahead but has qualified four spots behind in this race

Force India have 120 points. We have £2 a point at 69. Perez has qualified 4th

McLaren have 27 points. we sold £1 a point at 153...
--

race bets are as follows

abu dhabi top six   perez   11/8   50
abu dhabi podium   perez   16/1   20
abu dhabi grand prix   rosberg   5/4   25
abu dhabi grand prix points   sainz   6/4   20
Group D (BUT/ALO/NAS/ERI)   nasr   2/1   25
Group D (BUT/ALO/NAS/ERI)   ericcson   9/2   25
         

Force india made up 136, profit at £2 a point of £133

mclaren made up 27, profit at £1 a point of £126

total due to tikay £259 from the spreadbets


--

kvyat beat ricciardo profit of £90

alonso profit of £27.50

--

rosberg win, profit of £31

perez top six profit of £68

perez podium, sainz finished 11th and button beat the saubers , losses of £90

The points on the spread bets will be scaled up for the 20th race which never happened. Good for the Force India bet, bad for the McLaren one.

[TightEnd]

murray was great today i thought

[arbboy]

ding ding round 3.  220 Carl.  Not as good on the fav as the others this one.  Slightly more competitive.

Was on Freddie at 7/1 in the second leg of the ew double. Any idea what the win odds were on the machine?

Not sure but i doubt he went off bigger than 7/1.  sp was 4/1.  Fav was over 6/4 on the off even though returned a 5/4 sp when winning.

[TightEnd]

things to watch for in the final grand prix in the season, if anyone is interesting in the thread's outstanding positions

Alonso not to win a 2015 race at 11/8

season points: Kvyat over Ricciardo at 9/2. Kvyat is 10 points ahead but has qualified four spots behind in this race

Force India have 120 points. We have £2 a point at 69. Perez has qualified 4th

McLaren have 27 points. we sold £1 a point at 153...
--

race bets are as follows

abu dhabi top six   perez   11/8   50
abu dhabi podium   perez   16/1   20
abu dhabi grand prix   rosberg   5/4   25
abu dhabi grand prix points   sainz   6/4   20
Group D (BUT/ALO/NAS/ERI)   nasr   2/1   25
Group D (BUT/ALO/NAS/ERI)   ericcson   9/2   25
         

Force india made up 136, profit at £2 a point of £133

mclaren made up 27, profit at £1 a point of £126

total due to tikay £259 from the spreadbets


--

kvyat beat ricciardo profit of £90

alonso profit of £27.50

--

rosberg win, profit of £31

perez top six profit of £68

perez podium, sainz finished 11th and button beat the saubers , losses of £90

The points on the spread bets will be scaled up for the 20th race which never happened. Good for the Force India bet, bad for the McLaren one.

please let me know when the positions are settled then so i can get the correct figures in the spreadsheet and tikay can be sent the correct sum

[TightEnd]

and murray's going favourite right?

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner

recency bias

live on bbc just before the vote

middle class voters, bbc sport....

[Peter-27]

things to watch for in the final grand prix in the season, if anyone is interesting in the thread's outstanding positions

Alonso not to win a 2015 race at 11/8

season points: Kvyat over Ricciardo at 9/2. Kvyat is 10 points ahead but has qualified four spots behind in this race

Force India have 120 points. We have £2 a point at 69. Perez has qualified 4th

McLaren have 27 points. we sold £1 a point at 153...
--

race bets are as follows

abu dhabi top six   perez   11/8   50
abu dhabi podium   perez   16/1   20
abu dhabi grand prix   rosberg   5/4   25
abu dhabi grand prix points   sainz   6/4   20
Group D (BUT/ALO/NAS/ERI)   nasr   2/1   25
Group D (BUT/ALO/NAS/ERI)   ericcson   9/2   25
         

Force india made up 136, profit at £2 a point of £133

mclaren made up 27, profit at £1 a point of £126

total due to tikay £259 from the spreadbets


--

kvyat beat ricciardo profit of £90

alonso profit of £27.50

--

rosberg win, profit of £31

perez top six profit of £68

perez podium, sainz finished 11th and button beat the saubers , losses of £90

The points on the spread bets will be scaled up for the 20th race which never happened. Good for the Force India bet, bad for the McLaren one.

please let me know when the positions are settled then so i can get the correct figures in the spreadsheet and tikay can be sent the correct sum

Force India correctly settled at 143.20 -> £1,804.00 profit for me  Managed to buy at the lowest value, and got the maximum profit.

The McLaren bet, which I never personally did, should be settled at 28.4.

[TightEnd]

thank you

for admin purposes

£272 due from the spread-bets to tikay

[Tal]

and murray's going favourite right?

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner

recency bias

live on bbc just before the vote

middle class voters, bbc sport....

He deserves to be favourite, even without the obvious biases you've listed. Singlehandedly won us the Davis Cup. First man since John McEnroe to win all 12 matches he's played.

Hamilton is the best of two people who could win the drivers' championship at the start of the season.

Froome wins the main event of a fringe sport for the voting public.

Of course, we still have the greatest British sportsman of all time in Mo Farah...

[TightEnd]

The results show

bbc1 7.15 tonight

we have £44 at 4-1 Peter to go

saturday night went well

the hypothesis is that after jameliagate last week voters won't be disposed to vote him above the bottom 2, and as the lowest scoring dancer he could go in the judges vote

no spoilers please on here

Click to see full-size image.

[arbboy]

and murray's going favourite right?

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner

recency bias

live on bbc just before the vote

middle class voters, bbc sport....

He deserves to be favourite, even without the obvious biases you've listed. Singlehandedly won us the Davis Cup. First man since John McEnroe to win all 12 matches he's played.

Hamilton is the best of two people who could win the drivers' championship at the start of the season.

Froome wins the main event of a fringe sport for the voting public.

Of course, we still have the greatest British sportsman of all time in Mo Farah...

I am surprised Jess is still such a strong fav tbh.  Rooney at 40/1 is a rofl price.  He must surely be close to 1000/1 even having the lol all time English goalscorer record even though he has never done anything at a major/this season for manure.

£110 done on Vardy at 1000.0 on machine.  He couldn't win it even if he scores in every game til xmas surely? Which given their next few games is a much bigger price just doing that acca.

[Tal]

Fancy a player bet?

This is a bit techy, so bear with me. Cliffs: better line than it looks.

The Oakland Raiders play the Tennessee Titans at 6pm. They have a budding offensive system and a talented but slightly out of form running back, who will have difficulty getting through a quickly improving defensive line that I expect will keep it tight inside. So, it's time to get airborne.

Now, on paper, the Titans look pretty decent there, too: 8th in pass rush and Midtable in stinginess against opponents' first choice wide receivers. It is also worth noting that the Raiders' WR1 Amari Cooper has been a little quiet of late.

But, look a little further: the Titans struggle in the deep (they are currently performing nearly 2 times worse than the expected NFL mean against deep, central balls - per Football Outsiders). The man who will be marking him is Perrish Cox, who is having a bad month (2nd in receiving yards allowed out of the 100 cornerbacks who have seen 50 or more snaps in the last four weeks - per Number Fire). Cooper starts on the left side of the attack too, the side the Titans have been weakest, but it is the big, stretching routes that will be most problematic today; Cooper is a serious talent.

The line with BMU today is 72.5 yards. It's one of those where he probably won't do it in four 20 yard catches, but a deep 50+ catch and run with one or two others.

The easy stat is to say the Titans are the worst in the league against the number 2 wide receivers, so we should be on Michael Crabtree, but the chess master, Max Euwe, said you should play not the move you want to make most, but the move your opponent wants you to make least. They have options in the slot but a beast in the deep. The more I think about this, the more I like it.

Recommend £44 on Amari Cooper to get over 72.5 receiving yards with BMU