Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

So this is promising:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/constructors-championship

People ranking McLaren as 4th favourites for the title is stupid. Despite what the media, and teams are saying, due to restricted engine development, McLaren will be just as bad next season, if not completely last given that Manor have a Mercedes engine in 2016. This all means that there will be lots of value available on McLaren next season

I don't think this follows.  McLaren are going to be hardest to predict next season.  McLaren can be both be both more likely to finish first than Williams and more likely to finish last than Williams.  You can say Mercedes are 95% certain to finish in front of Force India, and that Williams are likely to be in the same ballpark as Force India, but you can't be at all certain where McLaren end up. 

I don't blame the bookies at all.  You don't want to go 100/1 McLaren and leave yourself open to a bunch of honda insiders knowing much better than you how the engine development is going.  Tighty put up something on the racing thread the other day.  4 horses in the same yard were gambled in to very short prices (hills went evens all 4).."  They ended up last, last, 2nd last and pulled up.  Next time they run, you'd be a pretty thick bookie to read that form at face value and putting them all up at 50/1.  And I say that knowing the most likely result is all 4 will run badly.  90 times in 100 they will run horrid, 10 times you get hammered.  Good luck pricing that. 

[JoeBeevers]

So this is promising:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/constructors-championship

People ranking McLaren as 4th favourites for the title is stupid. Despite what the media, and teams are saying, due to restricted engine development, McLaren will be just as bad next season, if not completely last given that Manor have a Mercedes engine in 2016. This all means that there will be lots of value available on McLaren next season

I don't think this follows.  McLaren are going to be hardest to predict next season.  McLaren can be both be both more likely to finish first than Williams and more likely to finish last than Williams.  You can say Mercedes are 95% certain to finish in front of Force India, and that Williams are likely to be in the same ballpark as Force India, but you can't be at all certain where McLaren end up. 

I don't blame the bookies at all.  You don't want to go 100/1 McLaren and leave yourself open to a bunch of honda insiders knowing much better than you how the engine development is going.  Tighty put up something on the racing thread the other day.  4 horses in the same yard were gambled in to very short prices (hills went evens all 4).."  They ended up last, last, 2nd last and pulled up.  Next time they run, you'd be a pretty thick bookie to read that form at face value and putting them all up at 50/1.  And I say that knowing the most likely result is all 4 will run badly.  90 times in 100 they will run horrid, 10 times you get hammered.  Good luck pricing that. 

A good judge that I know who works in F1 agrees with Peter on this. I believe they have lost, or are losing, a number of their sponsors. Tag ditching them was a bit of a shock. It means Honda have to spend more just to stand still. I'm looking to be short McLaren again.

[JoeBeevers]

thank you

for admin purposes

£272 due from the spread-bets to tikay

I'll sort this later today or tomorrow. Can I send to you?

[DungBeetle]

So this is promising:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/constructors-championship

People ranking McLaren as 4th favourites for the title is stupid. Despite what the media, and teams are saying, due to restricted engine development, McLaren will be just as bad next season, if not completely last given that Manor have a Mercedes engine in 2016. This all means that there will be lots of value available on McLaren next season

I don't think this follows.  McLaren are going to be hardest to predict next season.  McLaren can be both be both more likely to finish first than Williams and more likely to finish last than Williams.  You can say Mercedes are 95% certain to finish in front of Force India, and that Williams are likely to be in the same ballpark as Force India, but you can't be at all certain where McLaren end up. 

I don't blame the bookies at all.  You don't want to go 100/1 McLaren and leave yourself open to a bunch of honda insiders knowing much better than you how the engine development is going.  Tighty put up something on the racing thread the other day.  4 horses in the same yard were gambled in to very short prices (hills went evens all 4).."  They ended up last, last, 2nd last and pulled up.  Next time they run, you'd be a pretty thick bookie to read that form at face value and putting them all up at 50/1.  And I say that knowing the most likely result is all 4 will run badly.  90 times in 100 they will run horrid, 10 times you get hammered.  Good luck pricing that. 

A good judge that I know who works in F1 agrees with Peter on this. I believe they have lost, or are losing, a number of their sponsors. Tag ditching them was a bit of a shock. It means Honda have to spend more just to stand still. I'm looking to be short McLaren again.

Maybe but Doobs is correct that the bookies are just covering themselves over the off season.  If McLaren were 100-1 the correct play would be to back it now blind? It would be like buying an option.

[JoeBeevers]

So this is promising:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/constructors-championship

People ranking McLaren as 4th favourites for the title is stupid. Despite what the media, and teams are saying, due to restricted engine development, McLaren will be just as bad next season, if not completely last given that Manor have a Mercedes engine in 2016. This all means that there will be lots of value available on McLaren next season

I don't think this follows.  McLaren are going to be hardest to predict next season.  McLaren can be both be both more likely to finish first than Williams and more likely to finish last than Williams.  You can say Mercedes are 95% certain to finish in front of Force India, and that Williams are likely to be in the same ballpark as Force India, but you can't be at all certain where McLaren end up. 

I don't blame the bookies at all.  You don't want to go 100/1 McLaren and leave yourself open to a bunch of honda insiders knowing much better than you how the engine development is going.  Tighty put up something on the racing thread the other day.  4 horses in the same yard were gambled in to very short prices (hills went evens all 4).."  They ended up last, last, 2nd last and pulled up.  Next time they run, you'd be a pretty thick bookie to read that form at face value and putting them all up at 50/1.  And I say that knowing the most likely result is all 4 will run badly.  90 times in 100 they will run horrid, 10 times you get hammered.  Good luck pricing that. 

A good judge that I know who works in F1 agrees with Peter on this. I believe they have lost, or are losing, a number of their sponsors. Tag ditching them was a bit of a shock. It means Honda have to spend more just to stand still. I'm looking to be short McLaren again.

Maybe but Doobs is correct that the bookies are just covering themselves over the off season.  If McLaren were 100-1 the correct play would be to back it now blind? It would be like buying an option.

I agree it's a horrible market to price up if you are an oddsmaker. If there was a spread quote available I think it could be very volatile and would probably have a much bigger buy/sell margin than usual.

[TightEnd]

thank you

for admin purposes

£272 due from the spread-bets to tikay

I'll sort this later today or tomorrow. Can I send to you?

yes fine

[TightEnd]

Cooper 99 yards at half time. Andre out. We've turned a 900 down month to a 60 down month in the last week

[BigAdz]

Good work on the Andre bet.

In hindsight it was oh so easy with Judges turning up on all sorts of programmes during the week clearly embarrassed about their decision last week, and all the pieces of the jigsaw fit.

Not sure what best price was but seemed one of the easiest 3-1 bets of the year to me, even if it was for only £15 max.

Cheers

[JoeBeevers]

thank you

for admin purposes

£272 due from the spread-bets to tikay

I'll sort this later today or tomorrow. Can I send to you?

yes fine

sent, I made it £273 (124.60+148.40)

[Tal]

Good work on the Andre bet.

In hindsight it was oh so easy with Judges turning up on all sorts of programmes during the week clearly embarrassed about their decision last week, and all the pieces of the jigsaw fit.

Not sure what best price was but seemed one of the easiest 3-1 bets of the year to me, even if it was for only £15 max.

Cheers

The irony is he danced much better in the dance off and Kellie made a number of mistakes. They were very close on the dance off performance alone.

[BigAdz]

Good work on the Andre bet.

In hindsight it was oh so easy with Judges turning up on all sorts of programmes during the week clearly embarrassed about their decision last week, and all the pieces of the jigsaw fit.

Not sure what best price was but seemed one of the easiest 3-1 bets of the year to me, even if it was for only £15 max.

Cheers

The irony is he danced much better in the dance off and Kellie made a number of mistakes. They were very close on the dance off performance alone.

I'll leave the synopsis to you mate. I don't watch it, but happy to make a bit from the dancing boys combined wisdom, ty.

Kellie still got a chance overall or anyone else at a price still in with a squeak?

[Doobs]

Good work on the Andre bet.

In hindsight it was oh so easy with Judges turning up on all sorts of programmes during the week clearly embarrassed about their decision last week, and all the pieces of the jigsaw fit.

Not sure what best price was but seemed one of the easiest 3-1 bets of the year to me, even if it was for only £15 max.

Cheers

It was 4/1 with several bookies, hence we were able to get on more than the usual £15.   Not sure right now why I didn't take all the 7/2 and 3/1 too.  

Fwiw in the digital spy poll this week he got precisely 1 vote and suspect that was just Tighty doing his strictly trolling.  

[Tal]

Good work on the Andre bet.

In hindsight it was oh so easy with Judges turning up on all sorts of programmes during the week clearly embarrassed about their decision last week, and all the pieces of the jigsaw fit.

Not sure what best price was but seemed one of the easiest 3-1 bets of the year to me, even if it was for only £15 max.

Cheers

The irony is he danced much better in the dance off and Kellie made a number of mistakes. They were very close on the dance off performance alone.

I'll leave the synopsis to you mate. I don't watch it, but happy to make a bit from the dancing boys combined wisdom, ty.

Kellie still got a chance overall or anyone else at a price still in with a squeak?

Kellie is the best all round dancer in the competition IMO but she's really struggling with the public vote side and, when the final is decided purely by The Great Unwashed, it seems inevitable that she won't win.

Conversely, the world and his mother in law loves Jay...

[Doobs]

Good work on the Andre bet.

In hindsight it was oh so easy with Judges turning up on all sorts of programmes during the week clearly embarrassed about their decision last week, and all the pieces of the jigsaw fit.

Not sure what best price was but seemed one of the easiest 3-1 bets of the year to me, even if it was for only £15 max.

Cheers

The irony is he danced much better in the dance off and Kellie made a number of mistakes. They were very close on the dance off performance alone.

I'll leave the synopsis to you mate. I don't watch it, but happy to make a bit from the dancing boys combined wisdom, ty.

Kellie still got a chance overall or anyone else at a price still in with a squeak?

Kellie is a no chancer.  Jay just wins this.  Helen polled well this week, so maybe she is the best of the rags.  Anita and Georgia usually poll well, but Jay just crushes every week in the polls.

[sonour]

In the 1.00 Leic I bet King Kayf in an ew double taking Hills 11/1 early price. As it was 2.2 to place I knew it wouldn't be any bigger from the live show. So although I was getting ev on the place part the win odds were 20 on betfair.
Am I giving too much away on the win part Arb?
As a bit of a contradiction I was gonna bet the second fav ew at 9/4 as the place odds were 1.15 I the machine. Turned it down as the win was 3.7 on bf.
I really ought to look into this more as its the uncompetitive novice hurdle season.

Peejay,

Is 2.2 the decimal place odds at Betfair or the 1/5 odds place part of the 11/1 at the bookies ?

Is the question which is better  21.0 and 2.2 or 12.0 and 3.2 ?

Hi Sonour,
I was kinda thinking aloud, aware that 11/5 were great place odds on the KK bet, but as the win part was poor compared to betfair was the whole bet +ev if you like. I refused to bet the second fav in the same race (as a single) at 9/4, the place was trading at 1.15ish at the time, just cos the win part was 3.7 on the machine.
I'm just an ew punter and very rarely lay off any part of the bets I have but it's something worth looking at, esp as I suspect it's easy to have £100 ew at 9/4 yet impossible to get £100 on the prev mentioned 11/1 shot without visiting four shops.

What were the place odds on Betfair, Peejay ?

20/1 to 11/1 is a massive amount to give up on the win part. The place odds on Betfair would have to have been about 2.2 ( decimal ) to even consider it.