Tips for Tikay

[sonour]

Cooper 99 yards at half time. Andre out. We've turned a 900 down month to a 60 down month in the last week

Does that mean some of the accounts are funded now ?

[TheDazzler]

I reckon Teeks has put the £10K aside for his Blonde Bash Wedding Do.

That won't even cover the bar tab for 2 hours Ralph

[DropTheHammer]

Just having flat £20s and £50s on things makes no sense if you don't factor in the roll value and/or relative edge we have in every bet.

But it makes sense if Fred wants to keep the few remaining accounts open/not limited, or risk limiting others' accounts. You can only skin a sheep once!

[TightEnd]

Cooper 99 yards at half time. Andre out. We've turned a 900 down month to a 60 down month in the last week

Does that mean some of the accounts are funded now ?

not as such because almost all of it is through third parties so it will be going into bank rather than betting accounts when its all settled up

as to arbboy's points, which i understand (leaving aside for a moment that many people are only comfortably recommending small bets)

£8k of profits. £4k forward book. £3k was on bwin which was withdrawn on account closure. About £1k is the current "betting book" on three sites, a few others having gone busto during the losing run earlier this month

if we started doing £100ew £200ew the real bankroll wouldn't last long (most likely) currently

i'd rather arbboy you posted the ideas up anyway, the thread and its admin is only a framework, the important thing is that ideas keep coming so people can get on with their own money if they wish

[TightEnd]

Here are the seeded players for the World Championship darts and the possible 2nd round draws

the first round draw is today

so for example if it went to seedings mvg v rvb in the third round etc




our positions all find themselves in the MVG half

2016 PDC World Championship   chisnall   31   30            
PDC World Championship   RVB   40/1   20   £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
PDC World championship   G Price   250/1   5            
PDC World championship   wright   50-1   15   


did G Price not qualify?         

[TightEnd]

Big win for the redskins that. First place in the div with 5 games left

[sonour]

I'd rather arbboy posted more too but I understand why he doesn't.

It must be disheartening when you put something up and are told accounts are not funded. I know others get on but the original poster doesn't know how many, who and how much.

It's not like, great, Fred has £50 @ 4/1, good luck us, and the poster can see the result of their endeavours.

[TightEnd]

I'd rather arbboy posted more too but I understand why he doesn't.

It must be disheartening when you put something up and are told accounts are not funded. I know others get on but the original poster doesn't know how many, who and how much.

It's not like, great, Fred has £50 @ 4/1, good luck us, and the poster can see the result of their endeavours.

that's fair enough, as was mentioned last week tikay has some decisions to make where he wants to take it

[BigAdz]

Cooper 99 yards at half time. Andre out. We've turned a 900 down month to a 60 down month in the last week

Does that mean some of the accounts are funded now ?

not as such because almost all of it is through third parties so it will be going into bank rather than betting accounts when its all settled up

as to arbboy's points, which i understand (leaving aside for a moment that many people are only comfortably recommending small bets)

£8k of profits. £4k forward book. £3k was on bwin which was withdrawn on account closure. About £1k is the current "betting book" on three sites, a few others having gone busto during the losing run earlier this month

if we started doing £100ew £200ew the real bankroll wouldn't last long (most likely) currently

i'd rather arbboy you posted the ideas up anyway, the thread and its admin is only a framework, the important thing is that ideas keep coming so people can get on with their own money if they wish

We all know I am not a maths guy(!), however.

I always thought the idea of variance and overcoming it, was to have as big a sample as possible. Surely dipping into these odds on ew "good things" on odd days adds a sort of double variance? You can't pick and choose what days you do it? Make sense?

If that does make sense, and its correct, whilst its not my kind of bet, you either do them all, or don't bother.

[TightEnd]

we dont do them, as the cash to hand for general day to day use couldnt withstand the variance (as things are currently structured)

appreciate them being put up though, same with the greyhound bias information etc. it all helps

[DMorgan]

Arb, is the BAGS heat in Swindon tonight just for that group? ie no movement on the Newcastle bet until the Doncaster heat on Wednesday?

[TightEnd]

Carson Palmer had a tough night last night

Arizona crept past the 49ers 19-13

Palmer passed for 271 yards

he is currently in 3rd on our 80-1 e/w passing yards bet with 5 weeks of the regular season to go

3 places paid

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing


we have a bet on the 49ers to finish last in their division

they are currently 4th, 3-8, one game behind the Rams who are 4-7

last game of the season they host the Rams.

[Bazzaboy]

Here are the seeded players for the World Championship darts and the possible 2nd round draws

the first round draw is today

so for example if it went to seedings mvg v rvb in the third round etc




our positions all find themselves in the MVG half

2016 PDC World Championship   chisnall   31   30            
PDC World Championship   RVB   40/1   20   £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
PDC World championship   G Price   250/1   5            
PDC World championship   wright   50-1   15   


did G Price not qualify?         

Price is there. Just missed out on a seeding which is probably no bad thing as he would have played MVG 2nd round if he had.

Personally I think MVG should be odds on. Utterly dominant at the minute. He has won the last 4 tournaments averaging 100+ in 22/23 matches. Taylor is very flaky under pressure nowadays, Anderson not in the form he was last year, Lewis flatters to deceive.

[doubleup]

In the 1.00 Leic I bet King Kayf in an ew double taking Hills 11/1 early price. As it was 2.2 to place I knew it wouldn't be any bigger from the live show. So although I was getting ev on the place part the win odds were 20 on betfair.
Am I giving too much away on the win part Arb?
As a bit of a contradiction I was gonna bet the second fav ew at 9/4 as the place odds were 1.15 I the machine. Turned it down as the win was 3.7 on bf.
I really ought to look into this more as its the uncompetitive novice hurdle season.

Peejay,

Is 2.2 the decimal place odds at Betfair or the 1/5 odds place part of the 11/1 at the bookies ?

Is the question which is better  21.0 and 2.2 or 12.0 and 3.2 ?

Hi Sonour,
I was kinda thinking aloud, aware that 11/5 were great place odds on the KK bet, but as the win part was poor compared to betfair was the whole bet +ev if you like. I refused to bet the second fav in the same race (as a single) at 9/4, the place was trading at 1.15ish at the time, just cos the win part was 3.7 on the machine.
I'm just an ew punter and very rarely lay off any part of the bets I have but it's something worth looking at, esp as I suspect it's easy to have £100 ew at 9/4 yet impossible to get £100 on the prev mentioned 11/1 shot without visiting four shops.

What were the place odds on Betfair, Peejay ?

20/1 to 11/1 is a massive amount to give up on the win part. The place odds on Betfair would have to have been about 2.2 ( decimal ) to even consider it.

This is one of two reasons why the odds on ew are so good.  Quite often the win price is actually under on bf as well so you getting another positive ev bet as well as the place.  The 2nd factor is most firms don't cut their limits for ew bets on the odds on poke either.  So you can get big volumes on as well.  Thirdly if you get 8 in a row beat like i have this week you must look a total clown to the average loltrader simply because he doesn't see the odds on jolly in terrible ew races as a threat to him as he doesn't cut the limits for ew bets from win only bets like they always do on the 2nd and 3rd favs.

re The problem of taking a much shorter win price for better EW terms, this calculator compares the EV of both

http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/eachwaycalc2.html

The example of which is better  21.0 and 2.2 or 12.0 and 3.2 ?*

The bookie is better £2.05 return for £1 ew

*at 2.3 place odds it isn't a bet so sonour bang on the money

[BorntoBubble]

Would the thread benefit from moving to a "points" system of betting rather than monetary, similar to what BE do.

BE dont actually prove they bet on what they do and as many people bet different amounts then that may be sensible.

I, like most i assume here, adjust for different betters depending on what they suggest.

I actually see the amount suggested as an irrelevant figure. Its more who and how much that decides how much I put on. (hence why access to the winners/losers spreadsheet would help - although i completely understand why it is locked) - I think we are all adult enough to see that just because someone is winning/losing it doesn't necessarily mean they are long term winners or losers. Also by putting it up would it possibly make some competition of people trying to work their way up and therefore putting more bets up and increasing the thread activity?