Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

BAGS track championship.  Last leg of Newcastle's group starts in 20 minutes at Doncaster's meeting on the evening dogs.  Should be a formality to get Newcastle into the final for our ante post bets.

Newcastle sailed through to the final with races to spare tonight.

2/1 favourite

final 22nd Dec

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post/bags-track-championship/winner

BAGS Track Championship Winner   newcastle   4/1   200            £100 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
BAGS Track Championship Winner   newcastle   4/1   100            £50 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
BAGS Track Championship Winner   newcastle   4/1   50            £25 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4

Blimey, that'd be nice.

[Tal]

Fred Favourite and chess superwizard, Magnus Carlsen, is on tonight's  One Show

http://us9.campaign-archive1.com/?u=b5b3ef6ad07c3c4b018a0e9e1&id=136c664f5f&e=0c42d57793

[arbboy]

BAGS track championship.  Last leg of Newcastle's group starts in 20 minutes at Doncaster's meeting on the evening dogs.  Should be a formality to get Newcastle into the final for our ante post bets.

Newcastle sailed through to the final with races to spare tonight.

2/1 favourite

final 22nd Dec

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post/bags-track-championship/winner

BAGS Track Championship Winner   newcastle   4/1   200            £100 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
BAGS Track Championship Winner   newcastle   4/1   100            £50 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
BAGS Track Championship Winner   newcastle   4/1   50            £25 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4

Blimey, that'd be nice.

This is just the most insane ante post market.  Every firm is still betting 1/4 123 (hats off to 365 for actually being the only firm to realise what is going on here and going 1/3 1,2).  2 of the tracks are already in the 6 runner final.  Newcastle and Monmore.  You can get 1/4 123 about 2 runners in a 6 runner event who are 100% in the final already.  Newcastle and Monmore at 2/1 and 5/1 respectively are close to being max ew bets at the prices for anyone not already involved.  Pretty impossible for any price to be bad ew when you are getting 1/4 123 place terms on a 6 runner event.  Towcester barring miracles are also going to make the final as well but not 100% yet.  Their final heat at home is tomorrow night (they have 2 runners in every race being at home compared to one for every other track).

http://www.bagsracing.com/the-north.html

[Tal]

At the risk of saying something daft, what chance do you have of keeping your account afterwards? That must be a palpable error if the bookie didn't realise the horse had already crossed the finishing post?

[arbboy]

At the risk of saying something daft, what chance do you have of keeping your account afterwards? That must be a palpable error if the bookie didn't realise the horse had already crossed the finishing post?

If that is a reply to my post i don't understand what you are getting at?  Nothing has crossed the winning line yet.  mathematically 13 tracks can still qualify for the 6 runner final.  2 have already made it.  5 of the others literally have no chance at all.  Bookies are pricing this up like a 13 runner event ew terms wise when in reality it is an 8 runner event (with two of the 8 runners already in the final 6)
(plus the
The last southern heat is at 480m Wimbledon track which will suit Sittingbourne much more than Romford and Crayford distance wise(plus the final will be held at a 480m track in most likelihood which won't suit them even if they do qualify) .  Romford and crayford both trail Sittingbourne in the standings already so they both look plenty short enough in the betting for me.  Equally Nottingham look far too short given it is highly likely only the group winner goes through in their group as the points have been too equally distributed for their runner up to get a high enough score.  Towcester should sail past their total having 2 dogs in every race compared to Nottingham's one tomorrow.

Hall Green will need a miracle for their total by enough to get the 2nd highest runner up score given how bad Wimbledon are in the Southern group you would have to think at least two of the Southern group will go past their score.  Then it is whether one of them can get past BV's current highest runner up score at 194 points.

The most likely 6 in the final for me are

Newcastle (already in)
Monmore (already in)
Towcester
Sittingbourne

then two of Belle Vue/Romford/Crayford as lucky losers probably.

[Tal]

At the risk of saying something daft, what chance do you have of keeping your account afterwards? That must be a palpable error if the bookie didn't realise the horse had already crossed the finishing post?

If that is a reply to my post i don't understand what you are getting at?  Nothing has crossed the winning line yet.

Oh it's a six runner final! Sorry. Misread!

[arbboy]

We should be having £150 ew on Monmore at 5/1 with paddy.  I appreciate fred can't get on at paddy but for those already involved in Newcastle wanting to add to the portfolio.  Monmore has a 480m track and are based in the Midlands.  Highly likely where the final will be held for travelling purposes.  Their dogs will have less travelling to do to get to the final which suits and the track distance will also highly likely suit them as well. They will also find it easier to trial at the track prior to the event travelling wise.  On top of the fact they are already in the 6 runner final and we are getting 5/1 1/4 1,2,3 ew.  They are never an underdog to finish in the top 3 in the final but we are getting 5/4 to place.

[JoeBeevers]

We should be having £150 ew on Monmore at 5/1 with paddy.  I appreciate fred can't get on at paddy but for those already involved in Newcastle wanting to add to the portfolio.

Is the final just one race, six greyhounds from six different areas? How do they choose which dogs run in the final? Isn't that the important thing? Apologies for not really understanding the format.

[arbboy]

We should be having £150 ew on Monmore at 5/1 with paddy.  I appreciate fred can't get on at paddy but for those already involved in Newcastle wanting to add to the portfolio.

Is the final just one race, six greyhounds from six different areas? How do they choose which dogs run in the final? Isn't that the important thing? Apologies for not really understanding the format.

The final is held at a neutral venue (usually in the Midlands for travelling purposes and usually over a 480m'ish distance).  The final is the 4 group winners and the two highest scoring losers from the groups.  See link below.

http://www.bagsracing.com/the-north.html

It is held the day before the betting shops shut before xmas and is live on sky sports as there is no horse racing on this day.  Each track has one runner in each race on finals day.  Can't remember exactly how many races there are on the day.  Pretty sure it is like 8 or 10.  Confirmed 10 races on the rules page.

http://www.bagsracing.com/track-championship-rules.html

With regards to the dogs allowed to enter.  the following are the rules taken from that link

TO be eligible for the competition each greyhound (except youngsters), at closing time for entries for each qualifying event, and entered for the advance card, must have completed a minimum of five graded races at its attached track. Greyhounds that have won no more than one open race in the UK in 2015 are eligible for inclusion. Any greyhound who at the start of the competition has won one open, but goes on to win another open during the Track Championship, will be ineligible.

N THE FINALS each track shall supply one greyhound for each race. Each finalist must have at least one line of form from a group event. In the event that a dog is withdrawn on the run up to finals day, and no replacement with a line of form can be found, a greyhound which was originally​ nominated as a reserve for a qualifying event can be used by express permission of BAGS.

It is basically a graded dog championship and once a dog has won more than one open race they are not allowed to enter.  This is why it suits tracks like Newcastle and Monmore whose top grade A1 events are better class than most minor opens at weaker tracks.  Newcastle rarely run opens at their track on a weekly basis so all their top class graded dogs are able to compete in this event.  In comparision Romford have an open card every Friday which a lot of their top grade dogs run in every week and as such wouldn't be able to enter this event.

Every dog selected for one of the final's 10 races must have run in at least one heat so you can't simply ship in top class open dogs for the final.

The track for the finals will obviously be a neutral venue and will be announced once the heats are finished this week.  I would imagine Hall Green (if they don't make the final) or Perry Barr (both based in Birmingham incase you are not Tal! - good central location/event for TFT xmas drinks/punt up maybe?) will be most likely to hold it based on their track distance and midlands location.

Hope this helps Joe.

[JoeBeevers]

Yes, thanks ;-)

[arbboy]

The bottom line is in a relatively tight win book it is virtually impossible to have a bad bet in a 6 runner race with ew terms 1/4 1,2,3

[rag2gar]

I would absolutely love to oppose Michael Van Gerwen this year in the darts can somebody please help me on this quest

[arbboy]

I would absolutely love to oppose Michael Van Gerwen this year in the darts can somebody please help me on this quest

Yes lay me 7/4 and i will accommodate you.

[Tal]

I would absolutely love to oppose Michael Van Gerwen this year in the darts can somebody please help me on this quest

Yes lay me 7/4 and i will accommodate you.

In the old days of Fred, Dubai would have offered evens.

[arbboy]

I would absolutely love to oppose Michael Van Gerwen this year in the darts can somebody please help me on this quest

Yes lay me 7/4 and i will accommodate you.

In the old days of Fred, Dubai would have offered evens.

Times are hard nowadays.  Glory days are over.  

Mardle was a good thing for the World's in those days even at 1000/1.