Tips for Tikay

[fatcatstu]

Carolina v Giants on Sunday.

Carolina -5 has to be a phenomenal bet surely?

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/carolina-panthers-at-new-york-giants/point-spread

Carolina have been superb all season, and scoring loads, and new York are going to struggle to score against the panthers pass defence, no matter how good OBJ is.

Recommend £50

Edit... I have no clue what how i have made the whole post into a link to odds checker!

Jonathan Stewart out injured and Giants always raise their game for the big games at the end of the season.

Prefer Cincy -4.5 on first look, AJ McCarron isn't as much of a downgrade from Dalton as the line suggests and San Fran have given up the ghost.

Is Stewart THAT much of a miss? He only averages 4 yards a carry, Newton contributes massively in their rush game, and he has also been passing it more in recent games, New York give up plenty through the air.

 The New York defence is bloody woeful and i can see Newton picking them apart, and all the giants have realistically is OBJ and he will be shadowed by josh Norman who is arguably number 1 Cornerback in the league. He has held the likes of Deandre Hopkins (who is probably harder to manage due to his sheer size) to very average games.

Can honestly see this one being very one sided and Carolina winning it by at least 10

Cam has averaged just over 30 attempts per game, and in his last three has gone 27/41/21 (21 last week) - wouldn't really say that's throwing more in recent games.

And the guy who is third in rushing yards on the season is quite an important part of their offence yes, 4 yards per carry for an every down back, yeah that's pretty damn good.

However having said that, gun to head I would choose Carolina, but I wouldn't be downplaying the loss of a key member of the offence. Also, they've achieved everything they need to now until playoffs, conference champions, first round bye, you've got to assume they are going to play just as hard and not pull players out of games just for the sake of the 16-0 season.

My point (not very well made) is that if their backup RBs go for somewhere near the 4YPC and if you give the rock to them 20 odd times, it will have the same effect, I dont think that as particularly difficult to see happening. At the end of the day, Stewart seems to average about 80 yards a game, which on any given day, most RBs can hit with 20 attempts.

Gameflow dictated they run the ball more in 2 of the games you mention there, as they were blowing their opponents out of the water.

New York give up around 400 yards a game in total, 300 of which is passing, thats rank last in the league.

Its obviously up to Tighty and Tikay, and everyone has their own opinions!

[MattyHollis]

Carolina v Giants on Sunday.

Carolina -5 has to be a phenomenal bet surely?

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/carolina-panthers-at-new-york-giants/point-spread

Carolina have been superb all season, and scoring loads, and new York are going to struggle to score against the panthers pass defence, no matter how good OBJ is.

Recommend £50

Edit... I have no clue what how i have made the whole post into a link to odds checker!

Jonathan Stewart out injured and Giants always raise their game for the big games at the end of the season.

Prefer Cincy -4.5 on first look, AJ McCarron isn't as much of a downgrade from Dalton as the line suggests and San Fran have given up the ghost.

Is Stewart THAT much of a miss? He only averages 4 yards a carry, Newton contributes massively in their rush game, and he has also been passing it more in recent games, New York give up plenty through the air.

 The New York defence is bloody woeful and i can see Newton picking them apart, and all the giants have realistically is OBJ and he will be shadowed by josh Norman who is arguably number 1 Cornerback in the league. He has held the likes of Deandre Hopkins (who is probably harder to manage due to his sheer size) to very average games.

Can honestly see this one being very one sided and Carolina winning it by at least 10

Cam has averaged just over 30 attempts per game, and in his last three has gone 27/41/21 (21 last week) - wouldn't really say that's throwing more in recent games.

And the guy who is third in rushing yards on the season is quite an important part of their offence yes, 4 yards per carry for an every down back, yeah that's pretty damn good.

However having said that, gun to head I would choose Carolina, but I wouldn't be downplaying the loss of a key member of the offence. Also, they've achieved everything they need to now until playoffs, conference champions, first round bye, you've got to assume they are going to play just as hard and not pull players out of games just for the sake of the 16-0 season.

My point (not very well made) is that if their backup RBs go for somewhere near the 4YPC and if you give the rock to them 20 odd times, it will have the same effect, I dont think that as particularly difficult to see happening. At the end of the day, Stewart seems to average about 80 yards a game, which on any given day, most RBs can hit with 20 attempts.

Gameflow dictated they run the ball more in 2 of the games you mention there, as they were blowing their opponents out of the water.

New York give up around 400 yards a game in total, 300 of which is passing, thats rank last in the league.

Its obviously up to Tighty and Tikay, and everyone has their own opinions!

If it were that easy to get 4 YPC for an every down back then there wouldn't be an issue at RB for any team in the league. And by the way, RB's don't just wait and see if they get the ball then run, there is a lot more to a complete RB.

Correct they do, as I said i'd go your side if forced, although the phenomenal bet aspect does make me roll my eyes when the line is available throughout Vegas and the whole of the UK's sports books. Yes you fancy it, I get that, fair enough. Phenomenal? No.

[fatcatstu]

Sorry if the wording irritated you to that extent, I will be more careful in future.

I could name 10 regular RBs that average more than Stewart, but I think we have reached the agree to disagree point of proceedings!

Like I say, its absolutely up to Tighty and others if it is put on or not, and I have probably managed to get a bit defensive over nothing. Sorry.

[MattyHollis]

Sorry if the wording irritated you to that extent, I will be more careful in future.

I could name 10 regular RBs that average more than Stewart, but I think we have reached the agree to disagree point of proceedings!

Like I say, its absolutely up to Tighty and others if it is put on or not, and I have probably managed to get a bit defensive over nothing. Sorry.

It's just opinions, nothing to get hung up or defensive on.

Yes you could name 10 regular RB's, but do they do what Stewart does off the ball? Also - if there are only 10 RB's you could name, then why will a backup come in and rock 4 YPC out so easy?

Anyway - been fun, good luck with them Panthers.

[fatcatstu]

Sorry if the wording irritated you to that extent, I will be more careful in future.

I could name 10 regular RBs that average more than Stewart, but I think we have reached the agree to disagree point of proceedings!

Like I say, its absolutely up to Tighty and others if it is put on or not, and I have probably managed to get a bit defensive over nothing. Sorry.

It's just opinions, nothing to get hung up or defensive on.

Yes you could name 10 regular RB's, but do they do what Stewart does off the ball? Also - if there are only 10 RB's you could name, then why will a backup come in and rock 4 YPC out so easy?

Anyway - been fun, good luck with them Panthers.

They were the ones that were over, there are still a fair few who were very close just under 4 YPC, a fair few of which were backups (Rawls, Williams, West, Ware, D Johnson off the top of the list)

Just seen an interesting stat...

The Giants and ODB go up against josh norman., he has held deandre Hopkins, Mike Evans, ty Hilton and  Julio Jones to a COMBINED 173 yards
That is why I like the bet!

Anyway, I am off for a lie down in a darkened room!

[Weetabix]

Hi Weetabix,

Good to see you posting at last, saw you signed up a week or two ago.

Explanation for your alias? - I was stuck on a name, it was staring me in the face one morning.

How did you hear about blonde, or Fred - have you been lurking? Guilty, a number of years but have a lot more time on my hands these days.  A guy mentioned the website over the poker table at my local casino.

Tell us a bit about yourself, day job, do you play poker, what area do you live in. - Travelling as we speak with no intention of going back to work unless I have no other choice.  Poker has taken a backseat over the last few years.  I play once/twice a week with mates and the odd Sunday online hoping to fluke a big win.  I used to play 2-3 times a week in the old gala casino when you had 100+ turning up on a Friday night, long time ago now.  Currently live in a quiet area in Northumberland out in the sticks a stone throw away from Bamburgh.

Online is a very strange place, the normal social niceties don't exist, but it helps if we know a little about each other.

What sports do you mainly bet on?- Netball, Bandy, Lacrosse.  I figured naming the sports I don't bet on would be easier.  Huge T20, ODI punter and pretty much every other sport.

And the most important traditional Fred Newbie question......(you are obliged to answer)

Favourite Fred tipster, & why?- I would have to go with chompy in terms of profit, I have lost count the number of times I have dropped in here and jumped aboard one of these Guus Hiddink type bets.  Arbboy knowledge of the industry is very handy and interesting to read.  Ap
 

[swinebag22]

Carolina v Giants on Sunday.

Carolina -5 has to be a phenomenal bet surely?

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/carolina-panthers-at-new-york-giants/point-spread

Carolina have been superb all season, and scoring loads, and new York are going to struggle to score against the panthers pass defence, no matter how good OBJ is.

Recommend £50

Edit... I have no clue what how i have made the whole post into a link to odds checker!

All the stats quoted supporting this bet are known to the bookies too, so when most firms are -5 @ 10/11 then we can assume most of the time, that this is the correct line and any bet is purely a punt.  5 is also a bit of a dead number and is really not different to -4.5 and -5.5

The main edge in these markets is from betting against the Rec money. Giants/NFL fans could be all over Giants +5 come game day.  If this alone shifts the line to -4  you then possibly have a good bet bet on your hands. If it shifts to -3.5 then we have a phenomenal bet.

It may well be that this opened higher than 5 and has come down (Not looked at the history) but this will mostly be a reaction to team news/conditions or worse still, professional money for the Giants.

Best thing is to wait until game day (the Giants fans are tailgating and unloading the clip 😃😃)and see if the price moves in your favour

No bet for me at the moment.

[fatcatstu]

Carolina v Giants on Sunday.

Carolina -5 has to be a phenomenal bet surely?

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/carolina-panthers-at-new-york-giants/point-spread

Carolina have been superb all season, and scoring loads, and new York are going to struggle to score against the panthers pass defence, no matter how good OBJ is.

Recommend £50

Edit... I have no clue what how i have made the whole post into a link to odds checker!

All the stats quoted supporting this bet are known to the bookies too, so when most firms are -5 @ 10/11 then we can assume most of the time, that this is the correct line and any bet is purely a punt.  5 is also a bit of a dead number and is really not different to -4.5 and -5.5

The main edge in these markets is from betting against the Rec money. Giants/NFL fans could be all over Giants +5 come game day.  If this alone shifts the line to -4  you then possibly have a good bet bet on your hands. If it shifts to -3.5 then we have a phenomenal bet.

It may well be that this opened higher than 5 and has come down (Not looked at the history) but this will mostly be a reaction to team news/conditions or worse still, professional money for the Giants.

Best thing is to wait until game day (the Giants fans are tailgating and unloading the clip 😃😃)and see if the price moves in your favour

No bet for me at the moment.

I see your point there Rob, and it would obviously be glorious if the Giant fans all lump on and give us a boost. Too late for me mind you, I saw it, got excited and whacked money on, not considering that the price may change :p

That said, I think the bookmakers are wrong. I honestly cannot see how the Giants keep it to a 5 point difference. They are against an offence that is tearing teams apart, and a defence that has the best corner in the league to nulify their main threat.

[Ironside]

i edited your post stu to sort the link out
and then all the posts quoting it

[fatcatstu]

i edited your post stu to sort the link out
and then all the posts quoting it

hahaha, excellent, thankyou very much! I obviously pressed something that I didnt intend to!

[david3103]

i edited your post stu to sort the link out
and then all the posts quoting it

hahaha, excellent, thankyou very much! I obviously pressed something that I didnt intend to!

Not the first time you've had to apologise for that 

[horseplayer]

Quite a good punting card at Jebel Ali this morning.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/world/jebel-ali/10:45/winner

Awful maiden the rp forecast 12s! Tobaco is a no no but evens is ok likely to be more like 4/7 before the start. suggest £30 hills evens tobaco

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/world/jebel-ali/11:15/winner

Will add a bet/bets in this in a bit think the Tobaco price will be gone shortly.

Here we go short horse by horse racecard order.

FARRAAJ put in short here as has best "form" however had one run on todays dirt surface when trained in America (a long time ago tbf) and more importanty runs for a trainer who does not do so well here, especially with horses off long breaks. Been away 200+ days doubts on surface and a short price quite easy to oppose.

JUTLAND loves it here 3 from 3 last year but ran a shocker on comeback this season. Harder to excuse as never runs poorly here has chances but maybe at 8 needs another run, could possibly be a prep for the listed event back here in Jan (won last year)

MAWHUB improving steadily last season, good first run of the season here last month for a trainer whose usually need the run should be fav imo.

LANARK as per usual trainer on fire early doors but essentially a good handicapper

PAENE MAGNUS nice horse for John Oxx, not bred for dirt though and tough this.

GRAND ARGENTIER just a claimer in France but open to more improvement than these and ran well at Meydan on debut, not sure about dirt.

The other four not for me..

SUGGEST £30 MAWHUB 3/1

[arbboy]

Update on the averages bet in the darts.  Last night the two big seeds Wright and Anderson averaged 94 and 99 respectively.  Nowhere near the 107.5 we have bet under.

[RickBFA]

York v Morcambe on Saturday.

Both teams averaging around 4 goals per game over last 2 months.

Over 3.5 goals is 2/1
Over 4.5 goals is 5/1
Over 5.5 goals is 10/1

Looks like value to me.

Anyone got a view?

[TightEnd]

missed teh first one, 1/2 when i got there

Mawhub Jebel Ali 11:15 Winner
3/1
Total Stake: £30.00
Potential Returns: £120.0