Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

i think my objection, objection is the wrong word, my issue is that a sport like basketball is tough to get trebles+ up in

almost every team can beat almost any other team any night

compare that to snooker where ronnie would have to have an off day to lose to williams, selby an off day to lose to walden etc etc so you feel you are on two good things. i doubt we'd think we are on three basketball good things. in this basketball season we don't even get any basketball recommended.

the depth of the competition varies markedly sport to sport so whilst you might think you are nicking 10% over the betfair multiple price i think it differs in practice and we aren't going to be doing enough to iron out the short term variance

There is not a professional sports league in the world where teams routinely go off 1/10 to 1/50 to win regular season games apart from the NBA.  This happens almost on a nightly basis in the nba. 

but not on these offers though, i would suggest

unless you are playing the 76ers, anyone can beat anyone.

[TightEnd]

Only bet I've made in about a year, Eddie Redmayne to win best actor at the Oscars, currently 14/1 on Paddy.

He won it last year, and everyone thinks this is FINALLY Leonardo DiCaprios time after snub after snub after snub. However, the Oscar folks often go against public sentiment when they think they are being pressured.

More significantly, Redmayne plays a transexual in The Danish Girl, and this is a major hot button issue in 2016, so I think the Oscars folks will make a political statement on this one and give him his second gong in a row.

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-actor

[arbboy]

i think my objection, objection is the wrong word, my issue is that a sport like basketball is tough to get trebles+ up in

almost every team can beat almost any other team any night

compare that to snooker where ronnie would have to have an off day to lose to williams, selby an off day to lose to walden etc etc so you feel you are on two good things. i doubt we'd think we are on three basketball good things. in this basketball season we don't even get any basketball recommended.

the depth of the competition varies markedly sport to sport so whilst you might think you are nicking 10% over the betfair multiple price i think it differs in practice and we aren't going to be doing enough to iron out the short term variance

There is not a professional sports league in the world where teams routinely go off 1/10 to 1/50 to win regular season games apart from the NBA.  This happens almost on a nightly basis in the nba.  

but not on these offers though, i would suggest

unless you are playing the 76ers, anyone can beat anyone.

Why is a 1/3 shot in the nba less or more likely to win than a 1/3 shot in the epl/nfl/mlb/tennis/darts/snooker assuming all other things being equal?  I am really struggling to understand your point unless you are just trying to find an illogical argument to justify not backing multis for the boss for decent stakes which are cracking bets and should be bet virtually blind for big stakes relative for us.  We are talking prices and ev here.  Not whether any team can beat any other.  Anyone can beat anyone in any sport.  the EPL has been a bloodbath for favs this year.  The NBA not so.  Just look at the standings.

If fred doesn't want to back multis period then that's fine.  Would prefer to hear that than some of the stuff posted this morning to justify not having these bets.

[horseplayer]

Surely the fact anyone can beat anyone is built into the price?


Having a 5 fold on the footie because the teams are in good for and taking mid price is bad

Having multiples where you are beating the price is good

[bergeroo]

Only bet I've made in about a year, Eddie Redmayne to win best actor at the Oscars, currently 14/1 on Paddy.

He won it last year, and everyone thinks this is FINALLY Leonardo DiCaprios time after snub after snub after snub. However, the Oscar folks often go against public sentiment when they think they are being pressured.

More significantly, Redmayne plays a transexual in The Danish Girl, and this is a major hot button issue in 2016, so I think the Oscars folks will make a political statement on this one and give him his second gong in a row.

Don't agree at all. I've got money on Leo at various prices and also backed him for the Golden Globes and don't see how he can lose.

I don't agree that there is public sentiment for him to win. Any public sentiment is for movies like Star Wars or Mad Max or perhaps someone like Matt Damon. If anything it is actually industry sentiment. He's had a long career now. He's largely eschewed money making big franchise type films for the chance to work with noted directors in interesting roles. This is a meaty role, the type that can win an Oscar, so he will be rewarded for his career. Only a handful of people have been nominated more times than him and not won an Oscar.

[Knottikay]

Only just seen the 4th frame but Ronnie appears to be on fire from  

Don't contribute to this thread often, but have learnt a lot like many others I am sure.

If there is an edge in these short priced combos surely they are some of the very best possible bets you can do?

Surely as long as there is an edge the shorter the price the better?

Yep....Ronnie does look in form. Hands up....I got it wrong.

**rips up virtual slips of paper on Selby bets **

[arbboy]

Only just seen the 4th frame but Ronnie appears to be on fire from  

Don't contribute to this thread often, but have learnt a lot like many others I am sure.

If there is an edge in these short priced combos surely they are some of the very best possible bets you can do?

Surely as long as there is an edge the shorter the price the better?

Yep....Ronnie does look in form. Hands up....I got it wrong.

**rips up virtual slips of paper on Selby bets **

We didn't get it wrong.  We got it right.  We bet him at 6/4,  he went off tight 11/10 on the machine.  We nicked the same old 5% we always nick on a bet win or lose.  Corals got it 'wrong' but won today in Ronnie holds on but they still lost 5% to us today which is why we will always accommodate their action long term but,sadly, they are not so keen to accommodate ours.  They backed ronnie at 4/6 against pro punters yesterday when they could have backed him at 10/11 if their loltraders knew what they were doing.

[DaveShoelace]

Only bet I've made in about a year, Eddie Redmayne to win best actor at the Oscars, currently 14/1 on Paddy.

He won it last year, and everyone thinks this is FINALLY Leonardo DiCaprios time after snub after snub after snub. However, the Oscar folks often go against public sentiment when they think they are being pressured.

More significantly, Redmayne plays a transexual in The Danish Girl, and this is a major hot button issue in 2016, so I think the Oscars folks will make a political statement on this one and give him his second gong in a row.

Don't agree at all. I've got money on Leo at various prices and also backed him for the Golden Globes and don't see how he can lose.

I don't agree that there is public sentiment for him to win. Any public sentiment is for movies like Star Wars or Mad Max or perhaps someone like Matt Damon. If anything it is actually industry sentiment. He's had a long career now. He's largely eschewed money making big franchise type films for the chance to work with noted directors in interesting roles. This is a meaty role, the type that can win an Oscar, so he will be rewarded for his career. Only a handful of people have been nominated more times than him and not won an Oscar.

Maybe you missed it, but there has been a running joke for the past year or so of 'what can leo do to finally win an oscar' which is the public sentiment i am referring to.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=leonardo+dicaprio+oscar+joke&tbm=isch&imgil=GlHs_0kd0lts6M%253A%253BWADNYIDOzyfbiM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fwww.mandatory.com%25252F2014%25252F02%25252F27%25252Fleonardo-dicaprio-oscar-jokes-never-get-old%25252F&source=iu&pf=m&fir=GlHs_0kd0lts6M%253A%252CWADNYIDOzyfbiM%252C_&biw=1280&bih=614&usg=__c3YA-IWJOGINT_nRF9nRcOTG3xI%3D&ved=0ahUKEwiWgY_LyanKAhUEaQ8KHU8SBZ8QyjcILw&ei=67iXVtbfD4TSPc-klPgJ#imgrc=GlHs_0kd0lts6M%3A&usg=__c3YA-IWJOGINT_nRF9nRcOTG3xI%3D

http://www.smosh.com/smosh-pit/memes/internets-best-reactions-leonardo-dicaprio-not-winning-oscar

And as for him being a worthy winner, they all are worthy winners, the most worthy is purely subjective. I've actually bet based on having seen none of the films nominated (Which either means I have really looked at the politics of the Oscars, or I am a complete idiot).

[StuartHopkin]

Only just seen the 4th frame but Ronnie appears to be on fire from  

Don't contribute to this thread often, but have learnt a lot like many others I am sure.

If there is an edge in these short priced combos surely they are some of the very best possible bets you can do?

Surely as long as there is an edge the shorter the price the better?

Yep....Ronnie does look in form. Hands up....I got it wrong.

**rips up virtual slips of paper on Selby bets **

We didn't get it wrong.  We got it right.  We bet him at 6/4,  he went off tight 11/10 on the machine.  We nicked the same old 5% we always nick on a bet win or lose.  Corals got it 'wrong' but won today in Ronnie holds on but they still lost 5% to us today which is why we will always accommodate their action long term but,sadly, they are not so keen to accommodate ours.  They backed ronnie at 4/6 against pro punters yesterday when they could have backed him at 10/11 if their loltraders knew what they were doing.

Can I have your virtual shreds of paper?

It's not over yet 

[arbboy]

Selby 6-0 also went off 39/1 for £400 on bf when we recommended 66/1 yesterday.  We 'lost' again but won our margin.  If you want the 5% with no swings the easy way just pay betfair the commission and take it no risk.

[exstream]

How come the 'big' snooker game is on during the afternoon instead of 'prime time' ?

[AndrewT]

How come the 'big' snooker game is on during the afternoon instead of 'prime time' ?

Because the BBC only get an hour of live snooker in the evening.

[horseplayer]

Polar river wins at 11/8 very nice animal

Nice to actually eat some value

Can watch her win here very nice turn of foot


https://t.co/X66Pcx9AVl

"And she waved them goodbye"

[nellberg]

Polar river wins at 11/8 very nice animal

Nice to actually eat some value

Can watch her win here very nice turn of foot


https://t.co/X66Pcx9AVl

"And she waved them goodbye"

Very nice tip, tyty. Looked very impressive

[arbboy]

Proper Ronnie turned up today.  Last clearance was great to watch.

https://twitter.com/nickgoff79/status/687621833005334528

Goff crowing even though his workmates backed Ronnie with the firm's money at 4/6!  He should help the snooker lads out being a senior trader.  Winner is a winner though.  Everyone happy at Stratford this afternoon.  Maybe it was Goff who made Ronnie a 4/7 poke to open up 1/2 6/4.

Funny because his tweet said Ronnie went off underdog when he touched evens in a place on bf before commission.  Doesn't sound like an underdog to me.  Sounds like you getting 1.95-1.98 depending on commission levels.  Shame they won't lay their opinions for real money to real judges.