Tips for Tikay

[Jamier-Host]

Btw pretty much all the WH bets (like above) are limited to £20 max so bit of a moot point on upping the stakes. Would be nice to get lumps on them all but not gonna happen. There were some great ones in December.

[edgascoigne]

Hello all,

As an emotionless barsteward I thought I would drop in to add my two cents on the multiples point.

Some time ago I posted explaining the relative merits of betting doubles/trebles etc. where one has an edge. Broadly this seems to have been accepted and exploited by thread, but in recent instances where a mispricing is as a result of an offer, rather than perceived/calculated edges we are becoming gun shy.

If I toss a coin it's even money each of two. Heads or tails for the double is 3/1. Looking for a treble is 7/1. It really is that simple.

To echo what Mark is saying, either these established markets are efficiently priced (like the coin toss above) or they are not. If the pricing were only 'fair' there is no utility in deploying capital. If the enhanced offers do not offer value then BY DEFINITION the singles on the other side must do so.

A monkey with a stick punting with a clear strategy to exploit only divergences from the established markets would turn a profit. Give the monkey 10/1 about the coin toss treble and he is printing. 9/2 about the double he is printing. It's just maths.

Backing a horse at 5/2 that should be 2/1 makes money. Backing a coin toss at 11/8 that should be Evens makes money. Backing arbboy to chirp in these spots at any price makes money.

It's just maths, guys, and there is zero reason not to take the edge.

[atdc21]

backing Arbboy to have a blacker cat than anyone else at any price is printing money, and the double he done it all 10 years ago is pension fund.

[DMorgan]

unless you are playing the 76ers, anyone can beat anyone.

Any 76ers reading blonde?

50 points and a lead of 26 over the Bulls halfway through the second quarter!

[arbboy]

backing Arbboy to have a blacker cat than anyone else at any price is printing money, and the double he done it all 10 years ago is pension fund.

.

[exstream]

another hills double on snooker
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/2135999/Bet-Bundle.html

[arbboy]

unless you are playing the 76ers, anyone can beat anyone.

Any 76ers reading blonde?

50 points and a lead of 26 over the Bulls halfway through the second quarter!

Shame they didnt put the bulls in at 1/20 tonight into the treble over the odds.  They could have had our pants down.  Can't lose and they lose.

[arbboy]

unless you are playing the 76ers, anyone can beat anyone.

Any 76ers reading blonde?

50 points and a lead of 26 over the Bulls halfway through the second quarter!

Shame they didnt put the bulls in at 1/20 tonight into the treble over the odds.  They could have had our pants down.  Can't lose and they lose.

They still lose up 26 at home.  Incredibly bad team.  Officially they can't win.  Tighty knew.

[StuartHopkin]

another hills double on snooker
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/2135999/Bet-Bundle.html

How do you work out the edge on this?

If we assume Betfair is close to the actual odds, is the WillHill price giving you a 9% edge?

[Horneris]

Viktor Troicki won both his quarter final and semi final overnight, both from a set down.

In the semi final he played Gabashvili who surprisingly beat Tomic in the Quarters after Tomic retired because he couldnt really be arsed: http://www.foxsports.com.au/tennis/bernard-tomic-controversially-retires-at-sydney-international-after-bizarre-exchange-with-umpire/story-e6frf4mu-1227710241389

The semi final was somewhat of an event aswell, Gabashvili played out of his skin and lead 6-3 4-2 (priced at 1.06) before a welcome rain delay allowed to him to revert to type and completly explode losing 6 games in a row.

Hey ho, I doubt the reigning champion will beat Dimitrov in the final but a return of £90 is guaranteed for the thread. Good stuff Hector.

[tikay]

This morning The Heat play their last league game, 13/8 away at The Stars. If they win, we've had a nice sweat but we've done our money. Lose and we're all but home on them coming bottom. They've been underdogs for each of their 8 games so we had the best of it at 9/2 either way. Stars missing 4 players to international duty (3 bowlers) so should be a high scoring game given The Heat's bowling has been their weakness. We could do with The Stars winning the toss and chasing, which is both teams favoured method. Stars coach Stephen Fleming loves to chase, as it's 1 less uncertainty for his team. One time ...

How do these things happen?

No worries Nelly, it was a cracking bet, & we had a ton of fun with it.

Next time.

[tikay]

Viktor Troicki won both his quarter final and semi final overnight, both from a set down.

In the semi final he played Gabashvili who surprisingly beat Tomic in the Quarters after Tomic retired because he couldnt really be arsed: http://www.foxsports.com.au/tennis/bernard-tomic-controversially-retires-at-sydney-international-after-bizarre-exchange-with-umpire/story-e6frf4mu-1227710241389

The semi final was somewhat of an event aswell, Gabashvili played out of his skin and lead 6-3 4-2 (priced at 1.06) before a welcome rain delay allowed to him to revert to type and completly explode losing 6 games in a row.

Hey ho, I doubt the reigning champion will beat Dimitrov in the final but a return of £90 is guaranteed for the thread. Good stuff Hector.

Blimey, very well done, hector.

When is the Final?

[tikay]

Only just seen the 4th frame but Ronnie appears to be on fire from  

Don't contribute to this thread often, but have learnt a lot like many others I am sure.

If there is an edge in these short priced combos surely they are some of the very best possible bets you can do?

Surely as long as there is an edge the shorter the price the better?

Yep....Ronnie does look in form. Hands up....I got it wrong.

**rips up virtual slips of paper on Selby bets **

Is there a You Tube vid of that final frame? I was only able to half watch, but that final clearance, from 70 down (?), was sublime.

Would love to see it properly.

TIA.

[Doobs]

another hills double on snooker
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/2135999/Bet-Bundle.html

How do you work out the edge on this?

If we assume Betfair is close to the actual odds, is the WillHill price giving you a 9% edge?

I take mid prices on Betfair, which is (buy price + sell price)/2.  You then multiply both together.  I did it this morning and it came to roughly 2.6.  Hills are giving you 2.8.   2.8/2.6 is roughly 1.07, so you have a 7% edge which is more than my average return.

Of course you shouldn't just take offers on an account or you liked lose it, and I wouldn't Max every one, but they were happy with my £50 earlier.  Sure they will be fine with the same from thread.  

[StuartHopkin]

another hills double on snooker
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/2135999/Bet-Bundle.html

How do you work out the edge on this?

If we assume Betfair is close to the actual odds, is the WillHill price giving you a 9% edge?

I take mid prices on Betfair, which is (buy price + sell price)/2.  You then multiply both together.  I did it this morning and it came to roughly 2.6.  Hills are giving you 2.8.   2.8/2.6 is roughly 1.07, so you have a 7% edge which is more than my average return.

Of course you shouldn't just take offers on an account or you liked lose it, and I wouldn't Max every one, but they were happy with my £50 earlier.  Sure they will be fine with the same from thread.  

I don't think any of my accounts are in danger