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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13439185 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #112830 on: January 28, 2016, 11:24:03 AM »

Loss of £180 yesterday

0 for 5 on the dogs finishing 2nd,4th,6th,2nd,2nd

month to date +£217

outstanding bets £3753

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=34
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« Reply #112831 on: January 28, 2016, 11:39:36 AM »

I knwo that Nelly has fast become the go-to cricket expert in these parts, but I thought I would chance my arm!

The Masters T20 competition starts in the UAE in a few days time over a 2 week period, and I have been having a look at it.

The squads are mixed with legends of the game and players who are still playing, with notable abscentees in the likes of Chris Gayle and co, and, for me, the team that stands out is the Gemini Arabians (terrible names all round in this tournament)

Gemini Arabians - 3/1
They boast a squad with, in my opinion the most batting fire power, in the competition, with Virender Sehwag captaining them, they also have Kumar Sangakkara, Jaques Rudolph, Shiv Chanderpaul, Richard Levi, Brad Hodge in their batting lineup.

Obviously, Sangakkara stands out immediately, he is an all time great batsman, who is still playing around the world in limited formats and scores runs for fun. They also have Richard Levi, a huge hitting South African opening bat, averaging 28 in t20 mathces with a top score of 117, who I fancy to get stuck in to some of the more ageing opening bowlers who will be playing.

Bowling, they have Rana Naveed and Graham Onions, Onions obviously still playing to a high standard for Durham, Justin Kemp who is a former international all rounder, and a plethora of spin options, including Muralitharan, Hodge, Paul Adams (known for having his bowling action described as being like a frog in a blender) and Saqlain Musthaq.

For me, this is the strongest squad of any team in the contest, certainly with the bat, and with a bowling team that can be competitive too, we have seen how spin bowlers have come increasingly to the fore in T20 cricket.

Virgo Superkings - 11/2

Led by former South Africa captain Graeme Smith.

Batting they have Smith, Owais Shah and Mohammad Yousuf that really stand out, with all-rounder Jacob oram providing some big hitting in the middle order and millitary medium pace with the ball. They have Dirk Nannes and Brett Lee with searing pace at the top of their bowling unit, and Murali Kartik and Gareth Batty to provide spin options.

They are the betting outsiders for this one, but i think they have an ok team, but not as much quality in their current players as they should have.


Libra Legends - 3/1

Captained by Indian great Soutav Ganguly, they have what looks to good batting team, which may be slightly light on high quality bowlers.

The batting lineup will include current players Michael Lumb, Sean Irvine and Jaques Kallis (still playing T20 cricket) and hard biffing all rounder Ryan Ten Doeschate, with older players like Marcus North, Brad Hogg and ganguly to back them up. They should be able to be competitive with that lot.

Bowling, they are relying more on experience. Ryan Sidebottom is in their team and will offer control first up, and Shaun Tait will put some fire in the attack. After that, they will be relying on the spin of Graeme Swann and Hogg, along with the nouse of Kallis to get them by.

You never know how the older bowlers are going to fair in this kind of contest, and if people manage to get after the likes of Swann and Tait, they will find keeping scores down difficult in my opinion.


Capricorn Commanders - 7/2

Paul Collingwood is the skipper and the squad seems to be fashioned in his no frills approach to cricket.

Lacking any real superstar names, they are made up of solid pros and older stalwarts.

Michael Vaughan (possiby my favourite batsman of all time, what a cover drive he had!) Chamara Silva and  Ashwell Prince are the main batting threats along with Collingwood, and they will get support from allrounders Andrew Symonds, Ryan McClaren and Rikki Clarke.

Bowling, they have no outright pace, lots of allround medium pace dibbly dobbly nonsence, but Jeetan Patel will be a huge player for them. The Kiwi spinner will be their main source of wickets.

Think 7/2 is far too short for them.


Leo Lions - 11/2

Possibly one of the 3 greatest batsmen that ever lived, Brian Charles Lara, captains a team that sounds like it was named by a 6 year old.

Theya re another team who seem to have gone for experience over younger players.

Lara will be joined in the batting lineup by the fantastically entertaining (back in the day) Herschelle Gibbs, Brendan Taylor and  Hamish Marshall in needing to score the bulk of the runs. After them, it i another plethora of allround options, with the likes of Heath Streak being relied upon to get them if the top order fail.

Bowling will rely heavily on Fidel Edwards to provide pace up front, after which Johan Botha and Robin Peterson will be looking to take wickets in the middle overs with their spin.

Overall, another team that shouldnt provide too much of a threat this year.


Sagittarius Strikers - 5/1

The Strikers have gone for a gun batting lineup this year, with Adam Gilchrist (c) Mahela Jayawardene, Phil mustard, alviro Petersen, Jonathon Trott and Michael Carberry providing what looks like a high powered batting attack.

Bowling wise, they arent looking very clever though. Daniel Vettori will be the pick of them, a great one day bowler who never goes for many runs, he will be needed to roll back the years if they are too have any success here. Tino Best, Nathan Hauritz and the legend that is Mushy Ahmed are the pick of the rest of the bowlers, and this is the reason why they will probably not do as well as their batting lineup suggests they should.


In my opinion, the best bet for this year would be the Gemini Arabians.

I know 3/1 arent massive odds, but i think they are big enough to take. Their bowling lineup possesses quality spinners and some very good pace options, and they have possibly the top batsman in the competition in Sangakkara with more than capable back up.

It is a short format, and I can see them doing well in it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/masters-champions-league/winner

Recommend £50 on Gemini Arabians to win the Masters Champions League at 3/1
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« Reply #112832 on: January 28, 2016, 12:30:50 PM »

£50 feels too much for retired players in a semi-serious format. you only need to check out twitter accounts this week of some of the guys in hotel bars to sense that part of the art here is to know who is fit, training and looking to win it...

its also the first year of what is a short format (lose a couple and not easy to get back in it unlike the IPL, BBL, T20 here etc) in the highest variance form of the game

hope that seems reasonable.....

Gemini Arabians Masters Champions League Winner
3/1
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £100.00


 
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« Reply #112833 on: January 28, 2016, 12:47:02 PM »

£50 feels too much for retired players in a semi-serious format. you only need to check out twitter accounts this week of some of the guys in hotel bars to sense that part of the art here is to know who is fit, training and looking to win it...

its also the first year of what is a short format (lose a couple and not easy to get back in it unlike the IPL, BBL, T20 here etc) in the highest variance form of the game

hope that seems reasonable.....

Gemini Arabians Masters Champions League Winner
3/1
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £100.00


 

More than reasonable.

I agree with the old pros stuff, which is why i think it will be decided by the more recently retired players and the ones still playing, of which our boys have a good group.
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« Reply #112834 on: January 28, 2016, 01:50:43 PM »

£50 feels too much for retired players in a semi-serious format. you only need to check out twitter accounts this week of some of the guys in hotel bars to sense that part of the art here is to know who is fit, training and looking to win it...

its also the first year of what is a short format (lose a couple and not easy to get back in it unlike the IPL, BBL, T20 here etc) in the highest variance form of the game

hope that seems reasonable.....

Gemini Arabians Masters Champions League Winner
3/1
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £100.00


 

More than reasonable.

I agree with the old pros stuff, which is why i think it will be decided by the more recently retired players and the ones still playing, of which our boys have a good group.

some blasts from the past here eh! going to be hard to assess who's up for it, how much players have let themselves go. I'm not too keen to get involved in some of the lesser-known competitions like the Bangladesh premier league etc, so was going to avoid this one, will most likely punt it now haha. 4 South African's didn't get a "no objection certificate" from their board to play. Alviro Petersen wasn't happy but stayed home, Levi Kleinveldt and Robin Petersen went anyway so it remains to be seen if they are allowed to play.

I'd be looking for teams with players who are still active, and have one of the obvious "star" players.

Capricorns: look strong with the ball, Kleinveldt (if allowed to play) McClaren Clarke Laughlin and Patel is a strong attack at this level. They're a batter or 2 short so would expect them to be involved in low-scoring games if people are playing game-by-game. ack the "big name" current player but Colly is a good skip, should make them competitiv, especially in the field.

Gemini's: could win just on the back of Sangakkara's scoring. He was a disappointment in the Big Bash but previous to that he'd be in top form in the Bangladesh Premier League, conditions will suit, if he's hungry for runs he should be top bat here. Hodge looks good in Big Bash, so he's a big positive. Sehwag's looked average in the last few IPL's, could still be destructive against some of these sides. I wouldn't be banking on Onions, we don't pick him in white-ball cricket much up here and he's get nowt from the pitches in the UAE.

Lions: Wouldn't have a clue if Lara has played much, I doubt it, even when he was a cricketer he preferred to play golf :-) . Brendan Taylor should be a solid batting option, and bowling looks decent, Jarvis was good for Lancs last year, Fidel is still playing and Botha/Petersen (if he's allowed to play) are good spinners who can hold a bat. Franklin hasn't played since our summer but could play the "finisher" role.

Legends: If Kallis is fit and can be bothered, he can be a huge player, still contributed in the Big Bash and this standard is a way below that. Lumb was solid as ever in the bash also so that's 2 good batting options. current county all-rounders in Ten Doeschate and Ervine look decent, RTD in particular has IPL experience. With the ball Brad Hogg would be useful in those conditions, and Shaun Tait played an international for Australia 2 days ago and I doubt some of these old-stagers are going to want to face up to him, so he should be dangerous. Quite like their balance and have a big player in Kallis, I'd expect them to go well, probably be my favourites.

Strikers: Jayawardene showed some decent performances in the big bash, and had previously scored heavily in the NZ version. He's up there with Sangakkara and Kallis as the real star men, but he'd need to be super-consistent inamongst this lot. Santokie with the ball can be dangerous, Khan is the best home player and Carberry would be expected to score good runs out here. Guys like Vettori, Bond and Gilchrist are retired so it's a leap of faith for them to be on form. Strength would be with the bat, could concede some big totals.

Super Kings: outsiders and probably right. Azhar Mahmood and Owais Shah still turn out every now and again, Smith and Lee are commentators, Nannes and Jonty Rhodes would prefer to be out surfing. Batty is a wily character and McKenzie is still in the runs but they look weak in the main. could well be the whipping boys.
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« Reply #112835 on: January 28, 2016, 02:20:30 PM »

T20I tomorrow, Australia v India, Smith and Warner will be rested by the Aussies. This is obviously good news for our Finch "top Australia series batsman" bet, as his two main rivals are out of the running.

Does those 2 missing the game make India a bet at 11/8? they won game 1, Kohli and R.Sharma in good nick, Aussies middle order inexperienced against good spinners, Aussies missing their main bowlers in Starc and Hazlewood through injury.

Aussies have played 8 T20I's at the MCG, won 6 lost 2. Against India at the venue they've won one and lost one. Theory by Ed Hawkins at end of big bash was that chasing side has advantage at the G, as outfield so big it's hard to defend as even if you stop the boundaries they can run 2's easily. In all big bash games at the G, chasing side won 14/23 games. This season it was 4/6, with 1 of the losses a last over choke.
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« Reply #112836 on: January 28, 2016, 02:40:49 PM »



I wonder how much some whizz kid consultant got paid for coming up with those names?

Leo Lions

Really?

This one rolls off the tongue nicely though.


Sagittarius Strikers


They certainly do a good job in appealing to the under 5 pre-school audience.

Think I'm getting a bit tetchy. I'd best visit the Gym.
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« Reply #112837 on: January 28, 2016, 03:20:55 PM »

Could be wrong but would be wary getting to heavily involved in the legends tourney.

A last payday in more ways than one could be the plan for some.
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« Reply #112838 on: January 28, 2016, 04:10:43 PM »

Think I'm getting a bit tetchy. I'd best visit the Gym.

Is that next to the allotment?
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« Reply #112839 on: January 28, 2016, 04:31:51 PM »

dux scholar finishes last

not quick enough/ good enough these days
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« Reply #112840 on: January 28, 2016, 04:44:29 PM »

"I can't remember a more one-sided Super Bowl." (At one book, in terms of money wagered)

 Line is up to CAR -5.5 in most Las Vegas books.

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/14665376/one-sided-action-carolina-panthers-helps-move-super-bowl-50-line-las-vegas
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« Reply #112841 on: January 28, 2016, 04:46:13 PM »

T20I tomorrow, Australia v India, Smith and Warner will be rested by the Aussies. This is obviously good news for our Finch "top Australia series batsman" bet, as his two main rivals are out of the running.

Does those 2 missing the game make India a bet at 11/8? they won game 1, Kohli and R.Sharma in good nick, Aussies middle order inexperienced against good spinners, Aussies missing their main bowlers in Starc and Hazlewood through injury.

Aussies have played 8 T20I's at the MCG, won 6 lost 2. Against India at the venue they've won one and lost one. Theory by Ed Hawkins at end of big bash was that chasing side has advantage at the G, as outfield so big it's hard to defend as even if you stop the boundaries they can run 2's easily. In all big bash games at the G, chasing side won 14/23 games. This season it was 4/6, with 1 of the losses a last over choke.

11/8 is a good price for a first choice Indian team in this format against Australia missing two of the top 5 and five of the first choice side (if fit) for the worldT20
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« Reply #112842 on: January 28, 2016, 05:01:57 PM »

T20I tomorrow, Australia v India, Smith and Warner will be rested by the Aussies. This is obviously good news for our Finch "top Australia series batsman" bet, as his two main rivals are out of the running.

Does those 2 missing the game make India a bet at 11/8? they won game 1, Kohli and R.Sharma in good nick, Aussies middle order inexperienced against good spinners, Aussies missing their main bowlers in Starc and Hazlewood through injury.

Aussies have played 8 T20I's at the MCG, won 6 lost 2. Against India at the venue they've won one and lost one. Theory by Ed Hawkins at end of big bash was that chasing side has advantage at the G, as outfield so big it's hard to defend as even if you stop the boundaries they can run 2's easily. In all big bash games at the G, chasing side won 14/23 games. This season it was 4/6, with 1 of the losses a last over choke.

11/8 is a good price for a first choice Indian team in this format against Australia missing two of the top 5 and five of the first choice side (if fit) for the worldT20

Maxwell likely to be back, but won't make up for loss of Warner and Smith. 11/8 drying up though. 2.4 on bettyex, recommend £30

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/australia-v-india/2nd-t20/winner
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« Reply #112843 on: January 28, 2016, 05:11:27 PM »

Yes i can't get anything higher than 5/4, sorry
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« Reply #112844 on: January 28, 2016, 05:49:27 PM »

Think I'm getting a bit tetchy. I'd best visit the Gym.

Is that next to the allotment?

Same place.
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