Tips for Tikay

[nellberg]

Stoke 21/20 at home v Newcastle tonight look big, no? We've had the last 2 weekends off so will be well rested, but going without our 2 first choice CB's with Mbemba and Colo injured means we'll be up against it. Defense could well be Janmaat, S.Taylor, Dummett and Aarons ... 

[Marky147]

Neil was on the Final Furlong Podcast last night, which was very good, as always.

https://soundcloud.com/emmet-kennedy/neil-channing-sean-boyce-discuss-the-cheltenham-handicaps

[baldock92]

If he starts tonight is Welbeck first goal scorer at 9/2 with 365 against Swansea. Olivier giroud is still priced favourite in this market at 7/2 and if he doesn't start, as in the previous game, and Welbeck does this has to be worth a bet.

He's also 5/4 as an anytime scorer when, if he starts, I'd have him around evens against a poor side like the swans.

Worth checking when the team news comes out around an hour before KO.

Sadly can't get on this myself as its a 3am kick off local time with a 7am start tomorrow. Hope it works out, and someone can chuck a tenner on for me if they so wish

[baldock92]

Stoke 21/20 at home v Newcastle tonight look big, no? We've had the last 2 weekends off so will be well rested, but going without our 2 first choice CB's with Mbemba and Colo injured means we'll be up against it. Defense could well be Janmaat, S.Taylor, Dummett and Aarons ... 

I can't comment on Newcastle but I can say we've not looked comfortable our previous 2 games against Bouremouth and villa, looking very iffy at the back with a somewhat make shift defence, and not having a fantastic attacking threat (5 goals in 2 games is very generous given how blunt we've looked going forward against back ).

I'm not so sure there's anything more than very thin value in 21/20 but that's just my 2 cents. Happy to be proven wrong!

[nellberg]

Stoke 21/20 at home v Newcastle tonight look big, no? We've had the last 2 weekends off so will be well rested, but going without our 2 first choice CB's with Mbemba and Colo injured means we'll be up against it. Defense could well be Janmaat, S.Taylor, Dummett and Aarons ... 

I can't comment on Newcastle but I can say we've not looked comfortable our previous 2 games against Bouremouth and villa, looking very iffy at the back with a somewhat make shift defence, and not having a fantastic attacking threat (5 goals in 2 games is very generous given how blunt we've looked going forward against back ).

I'm not so sure there's anything more than very thin value in 21/20 but that's just my 2 cents. Happy to be proven wrong!

Don't know where our goals would come from either tbf, no Mitrovic (not that he can hit a barn door), no Townsend, Wynaldrum hasn't scored an away goal all season ... so that jinx means he defo bins tonight haha

[RobS]

One post allowed even though i promised Adz i would never post again.  

Everton nearly 4/6 away at Villa.  Stoke evens at HOME to villa at the weekend.  No value in the EPL though.  Price is always right.  Anyone who says the EPL markets are always right please talk me through this one in large mathematical detail please.  The EPL markets are full of mug cash and the easiest market in soccer to beat.

These prices make Everton close to a 4/9 shot to beat stoke at home.

Just to clarify as some people seem to be suggesting I said to lay Everton last night.  No recommendation was given as to where the value was in the above post.  I was simply highlighting how out of equilibrium epl markets can be and how much value can exist and does exist in a market where some people suggest the price is always right.  I am still awaiting a response from the price is always right in the epl fan base to talk me through the above situation given Stoke and Everton are very close to being two teams of roughly equal ability.

I did make a mistake in my original post however as I meant to say Everton would be a 4/9 poke on a neutral ground given the relative prices not at home.  If they were at home given those prices to stoke they would be closer to 1/4 poke.  

As we know two teams of roughly equal ability the home team should be around the 6/5 5/4 mark.

Agree with your point, no way those prices are both correct.

But no doubt Everton have been much more effective as an away side than a home side this season, so not sure it's right to say based on those prices they would be 1/4 at home. Do bookmakers take home/away effectiveness into account or would they just assume home advantage is the same for all teams?

[baldock92]

Stoke 21/20 at home v Newcastle tonight look big, no? We've had the last 2 weekends off so will be well rested, but going without our 2 first choice CB's with Mbemba and Colo injured means we'll be up against it. Defense could well be Janmaat, S.Taylor, Dummett and Aarons ... 

I can't comment on Newcastle but I can say we've not looked comfortable our previous 2 games against Bouremouth and villa, looking very iffy at the back with a somewhat make shift defence, and not having a fantastic attacking threat (5 goals in 2 games is very generous given how blunt we've looked going forward against back ).

I'm not so sure there's anything more than very thin value in 21/20 but that's just my 2 cents. Happy to be proven wrong!

Don't know where our goals would come from either tbf, no Mitrovic (not that he can hit a barn door), no Townsend, Wynaldrum hasn't scored an away goal all season ... so that jinx means he defo bins tonight haha

I didn't know Townsend was injured, was going it suggest him as a first goal scorer option, odds depending, due to our especially weaker right back position, with Glenn Johnson out injured, and both Geoff Cameron and Phil Bardsley (our normal cover for right back) also confirmed as doubts. Who would play left wing in place of Townsend?

[Chompy]

£120 on Wigan to beat Posh this weekend please, 5-6 VC.

Also, another £100EW on Wigan for L1, 3-1 BFSB. Comedy price.

VC 4/5 ...

Just seen BFSB are 2/1 too, that one's just changed.

Prices were available at time of writing, but soon changed. BFSB 3-1 with EW stips was particularly com, given prices under 2-1 were being asked for on the exchange. They're now 7-4 win only.

[nirvana]

£120 on Wigan to beat Posh this weekend please, 5-6 VC.

Also, another £100EW on Wigan for L1, 3-1 BFSB. Comedy price.

VC 4/5 ...

Just seen BFSB are 2/1 too, that one's just changed.

Prices were available at time of writing, but soon changed. BFSB 3-1 with EW stips was particularly com, given prices under 2-1 were being asked for on the exchange. They're now 7-4 win only.

Thanks

[Peter-27]

Nico Rosberg fastest in Barcelona as Mercedes finally shows F1 qualifying pace http://goo.gl/fb/dUR9tL

I would be extremely concerned if this is their qualifying pace haha! A 1:23.022 around this track, with these cars, is actually quite slow. Hulkenberg did a 1:22.510 just last week. I expect we'll see the 1:21's broken into by the end of this test

One post allowed even though i promised Adz i would never post again. 

Everton nearly 4/6 away at Villa.  Stoke evens at HOME to villa at the weekend.  No value in the EPL though.  Price is always right.  Anyone who says the EPL markets are always right please talk me through this one in large mathematical detail please.  The EPL markets are full of mug cash and the easiest market in soccer to beat.

These prices make Everton close to a 4/9 shot to beat stoke at home.

I don't really understand how prices can ever be "right", EVER. Bookies might well use a host of statistics, analytical modelling tools etc. etc., however at the end of the day, all prices are still essentially opinion based. Opinions can never be RIGHT or WRONG, can they?

interesting for the slower tracks this year if the chassis is that mproved

Click to see full-size image.

Where was that taken from? I take huge issues with many sweeping assumptions made in that "analysis".

[TightEnd]

Andrew Benson, BBC

[Peter-27]

Andrew Benson, BBC

If I could have had one guess ..

[Ironside]

SPL aberdeen win celtic draw gap is 4 points both teams playing same amount of games

celtic are starting to get a congested fixture list now and certainly dont want to have any cup replays

rooney's injury will see him miss another 3 or 4 games but he is still 6 goals ahead of the players in 4th spot
and griffiths has stop scoring to give rooney a chance (ok maybe thats not the reason he drew a blank tonight)

[Teacake]

Celtic don't have a congested fixture list, we have a shit team and a clueless manager.

[Teacake]

Dundee really shouldn't be 5/1 at Rangers on Saturday in the Scottish Cup. Unbeaten in 8 they have players who will trouble Rangers at the back 3 of whom, Harkins, Hemmings and Stewart, were rested tonight at Celtic Park.
Rangers have played 2 top flight teams at home this season losing 3-0 to St Johnstone and drawing 0-0 with Kilmarnock. I can't have Dundee any bigger than 3/1.

Recommend £20 at 5/1 with Bald Fred if account is still good. also available at Boyles and 9/2 generally.

https://m.oddschecker.com/t/football/scottish/fa-cup/rangers-v-dundee/winner