Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Lol bet what you like, I'll just put them up for those who care to read them - on the greyhound thread. I take bits and pieces off this thread so like to add rather than lurk. I tell you my equivalent stakes on the dogs I literally bet them all myself too(a bit bigger).

Appreciate the point about 120/125 returning SP however I do generally put the betfair sp up when I mention how the bet goes on. I'll be shocked if there are many over betfair SP over time.

I am not making a point about the tips.  It was stated that as your tips generally went off shorter then we should autobet your tips.  First race went off at 129 last night.  On the phone now, but I think it was 3 less than 3/1, two at 5/1 and one at 6/1.  I checked one of the early books yesterday and with best prices it was about 105.  So if you picked a short priced runner it would be pretty tough for it to drift on those figures.  I looked last night just before the off in one of the races and the total Betfair market on 6 runners was about 5k.  I am pretty sure that is a double count and includes backs and lays, so there is only £400 a dog on average there.  It is no surprise that thread moves markets in the circumstances.  I have seen them move in way bigger markets than this.

Tighty is looking after Tikay's money, so if after a few weeks/months and a winning record, then he can maybe autobet.  Right now, it is reasonable for him to ask for your best ones.  As it is, unless he is here when you post, he isn't likely to be able to get the prices you post on a dog at Romford.  The question becomes theoretical, as most of the prices are already gone when I look.  

[TightEnd]

this was basically my point

i will try to back what i can but in very thin dog markets early on it takes no money to move them so it does not automatically follow that shortening prices = auto-bet and value

as it is, i am sure they should be backed on "research and fundamentals", but not for the reason that the price always shortens once they go up

they have to shorten, i think.

[Tal]

Been a long time since I woke up several times in the night before a match. I'm now on the train down to White Hart Lane, so, to occupy my time, here are some of the stories you might have missed:

At Butlin's Minehead, Rod Harrington's son Ryan took on Michael van Gerwen in Round 3 of the UK Open. He has just turned pro after a few years on the bins.

MvG started with a 21 dart leg.



Harrington responded mercilessly with a 21 dart leg of his own.

They carried on with this nonsense for a few legs before someone reminded MvG it isn't 2007. He then took out 350 with six darts and won 9-2.



Incidentally, Fred hero, Mensur Suljovic, beat James Wade.

Theodoris Theodoridis was elected to Interim General Secretary of UEFA.

Click to see full-size image.

He is the son of the Vice President of Olympiakos. UEFA is as image-conscious as Janice in Accounting.



Heather Watson beat Carolina Wozniaki in Monterray to reach the semifinal.



Wozniaki was famously dating NFL superstar JJ Watt last year. However,  two other NFL superstars are making headlines this morning, as top receiver Antonio Brown and Super...Bowl MVP Von Miller are announced as two of the contestants on Dancing With The Stars (America's version of Strictly Come Dancing). One of these two is Von Miller:

Click to see full-size image.

Antonio Brown is the man who did this:



Nothing could be more NFL than the commentator's immediate reaction to seeing a man do that being, "That'll draw a flag"

He should be good in the jive, mind...

For the newbies, interviews at the scouting combine are seemingly equally absurd:

http://www.csnphilly.com/blog/700-level/falcons-asked-ohio-state-cb-eli-apple-if-he-likes-men?guid=QLYHTnum9KmI6_b_1f06Voir931yHADK

The Falcons Head Coach, Dan Quinn, has issued a statement about the situation:

“I am really disappointed in the question that was asked by one of our coaches. I have spoken to the coach that interviewed Eli Apple and explained to him how inappropriate and unprofessional this was. I have reiterated this to the entire coaching staff and I want to apologize to Eli for this even coming up. This is not what the Atlanta Falcons are about and it is not how we are going to conduct ourselves.”

McLaren's performance issues continue, but not in Jerez. Jenson Button expressed surprise at being able to drive a car round a circuit for 100 laps without something falling off it. No, we are discussing Peter-27's other bête noir. It seems like El Interim One might be coming back.



He is the only manager in history to have won the UEFA Cup, UEFA Super Cup, UEFA Champions League and the FIFA Club World Cup. Fact.

We are hoping he waits until Ed Balls sacks Alex Neil. This is no time for austerity, Ed!

To end, how about a quote:



I know Fred is on the away team today, but audere est facere, eh?

[tikay]

Ha, lovely stuff, Tal, thank you.

Good luck today. I've not dared open the Arsenal thread since the Man U & Swansea affairs. A win today & I might dare take a peek....

[TightEnd]

2016 premier league table

just as well chelsea took half a season off really

[engy]

Lol bet what you like, I'll just put them up for those who care to read them - on the greyhound thread. I take bits and pieces off this thread so like to add rather than lurk. I tell you my equivalent stakes on the dogs I literally bet them all myself too(a bit bigger).

Appreciate the point about 120/125 returning SP however I do generally put the betfair sp up when I mention how the bet goes on. I'll be shocked if there are many over betfair SP over time.

I am not making a point about the tips.  It was stated that as your tips generally went off shorter then we should autobet your tips.  First race went off at 129 last night.  On the phone now, but I think it was 3 less than 3/1, two at 5/1 and one at 6/1.  I checked one of the early books yesterday and with best prices it was about 105.  So if you picked a short priced runner it would be pretty tough for it to drift on those figures.  I looked last night just before the off in one of the races and the total Betfair market on 6 runners was about 5k.  I am pretty sure that is a double count and includes backs and lays, so there is only £400 a dog on average there.  It is no surprise that thread moves markets in the circumstances.  I have seen them move in way bigger markets than this.

Tighty is looking after Tikay's money, so if after a few weeks/months and a winning record, then he can maybe autobet.  Right now, it is reasonable for him to ask for your best ones.  As it is, unless he is here when you post, he isn't likely to be able to get the prices you post on a dog at Romford.  The question becomes theoretical, as most of the prices are already gone when I look.  

THIS is why I enjoy reading TFT every day. learn new things all the time.

[BigAdz]

Lol bet what you like, I'll just put them up for those who care to read them - on the greyhound thread. I take bits and pieces off this thread so like to add rather than lurk. I tell you my equivalent stakes on the dogs I literally bet them all myself too(a bit bigger).

Appreciate the point about 120/125 returning SP however I do generally put the betfair sp up when I mention how the bet goes on. I'll be shocked if there are many over betfair SP over time.

I am not making a point about the tips.  It was stated that as your tips generally went off shorter then we should autobet your tips.  First race went off at 129 last night.  On the phone now, but I think it was 3 less than 3/1, two at 5/1 and one at 6/1.  I checked one of the early books yesterday and with best prices it was about 105.  So if you picked a short priced runner it would be pretty tough for it to drift on those figures.  I looked last night just before the off in one of the races and the total Betfair market on 6 runners was about 5k.  I am pretty sure that is a double count and includes backs and lays, so there is only £400 a dog on average there.  It is no surprise that thread moves markets in the circumstances.  I have seen them move in way bigger markets than this.

Tighty is looking after Tikay's money, so if after a few weeks/months and a winning record, then he can maybe autobet.  Right now, it is reasonable for him to ask for your best ones.  As it is, unless he is here when you post, he isn't likely to be able to get the prices you post on a dog at Romford.  The question becomes theoretical, as most of the prices are already gone when I look.  

Agree with Doobs. Been saying this for years. As a group(and I include myself) we get all excited when a suggestion on here in a summer evening sand race at Southwell, or a 300-1 cyclist, or even a Eurovision nomination, plummets into half the price, and we think we have garnered value. In actual fact we have created the price crash. Does that still mean its true value, or has one person created a false market position? I don't know.

FWIW, I back Mattys stuff when I remember to look!

PS. Despite my upset at how Arsenal are going atm, I still think we will beat the London scum today. Come on Arsenal!!!!

[Archer]

Lol bet what you like, I'll just put them up for those who care to read them - on the greyhound thread. I take bits and pieces off this thread so like to add rather than lurk. I tell you my equivalent stakes on the dogs I literally bet them all myself too(a bit bigger).

Appreciate the point about 120/125 returning SP however I do generally put the betfair sp up when I mention how the bet goes on. I'll be shocked if there are many over betfair SP over time.

I am not making a point about the tips.  It was stated that as your tips generally went off shorter then we should autobet your tips.  First race went off at 129 last night.  On the phone now, but I think it was 3 less than 3/1, two at 5/1 and one at 6/1.  I checked one of the early books yesterday and with best prices it was about 105.  So if you picked a short priced runner it would be pretty tough for it to drift on those figures.  I looked last night just before the off in one of the races and the total Betfair market on 6 runners was about 5k.  I am pretty sure that is a double count and includes backs and lays, so there is only £400 a dog on average there.  It is no surprise that thread moves markets in the circumstances.  I have seen them move in way bigger markets than this.

Tighty is looking after Tikay's money, so if after a few weeks/months and a winning record, then he can maybe autobet.  Right now, it is reasonable for him to ask for your best ones.  As it is, unless he is here when you post, he isn't likely to be able to get the prices you post on a dog at Romford.  The question becomes theoretical, as most of the prices are already gone when I look.  

On this theme and following on from a question Tighty asked yesterday that  wasn't answered, is the Everton v West game an example of inefficient pricing?

I laid Everton yesterday at 1.73 and currently 1.75 on the exchange. This looks far to short and seems like value to me. The point I made was that they were the the same price when they played Swansea a few weeks back when Swansea were 3rd bottom in the league whilst West Ham are chasing a CL spot. On form Everton have only won 1 of their last 6 home league games and west ham have lost only 2 of the last 6 away.

Edit: I quoted the wrong post. OOps.

[Doobs]

no bets completed yesterday

one piece of activity on our bets

Roma 4-1 Fiorentina

Roma are 3rd, 5 points behind Juve

--

Nico Rosberg: "We know it is close but we are not sure if we are ahead or behind" http://skysports.tv/PMEszc 

--

So, it turns out Ferrari might have caught up after all... http://bbc.in/1RMQmuI 
H
Vettel is 11/2 in a spot, still

You have mentioned Ferrari & Vettel several times, Tighty.

Is there a way we can get with them/him which affords us some value, & a season long sweat? If so, let's consider it. Peter will be along with a raft of season bets soon I expect, & it'd be good to build a little F1 2016 book.

Nirvana loves the sheer excitement of F1, too, he may have some suggestions.

We're on Rosberg

I expect Peter will say that we shouldn't do anything with Vettel as he expects Mercedes to dominate again. I just pop up the links for discussion

there are no sub-markets up yet, i have been looking every day. For example driver match bets wbhere we did well last year

I also wanted to look at possible markets ex-mercedes/ferrari. i had in mind that a team might overtake williams and be consistently third quickest.

For those that can get on with PP: Vettel is 11/2, which is bang on Betfair, but they give you a third top 2.  So you are getting 11/6 on the top 2.  Backing Vettel each way in the circumstances looks like it must be a good bet.  This assumes Ferrari is close to Mercedes as the betting suggests and not some way behind (peter's view).   If you are going to back Vettel, you should definitely go each way.

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/bristol-city-v-cardiff/first-goalscorer

Like Joe Bryan here this is a 12 o clock kick off

Usually a full back been moved into centre midfield last two games and impressed. Can see quite a price difference across the firms, 33S Is obviously priced like still a full back, 20s would be more my price here

If a fred regular could get me £10 first and last at 33s with 888 id appreciate it, pm me to confirm happy to send before kick off

SUGGEST £10 WIN FIRST LAST JOE BRYAN 33S (OR 30S VICTOR)

THANK YOU ON FOR ME NOW, STILL NEEDS TO BE ON FRED IF FRED WANTS IT

[DonkBets]

Been a lurker for a while, reading when I can and have followed a few winning tips, so muchos gracias for that.

I'm just a novice mug punter, on football mainly. Seen a couple of bets I like and thought id dip my toe in lol...


These 2 stuck out most when I was going through the fixtures. The prices seemed wrong based on home and away form...

Barnet v Hartlepool - Barnet boast the second best home record in the league W10 L4. They have W3 of the last 5 at home, D1 and L1 and have W5 of the last 7. In contrast, Hartlepool have the 2nd worst away record in the league W3 D1 L10 with their recent record reading W0 D1 L4.

Sky & PP are best priced 23/20 but 11/10 pretty much everywhere else. Recommend £25.


Port Vale v Colchester - Port Vale have the 4th best home record. W9 L1. Unbeaten in the last 12, W6 . Colchester have the 2nd worst away record, W3 L12. Conceding 49 goals in the process. Recent form reads L3 D1 and W1 (last week vs Bradford).

Boyles and 888 are best priced 20/21 and 19/20. Recommend £25.


Feel free to adjust stakes to whatever is deemed acceptable for a first time poster. Also apologies if you are restricted on any of those firms mentioned, im not familiar with where you guys can get on.


Cheers

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/bristol-city-v-cardiff/first-goalscorer

Like Joe Bryan here this is a 12 o clock kick off

Usually a full back been moved into centre midfield last two games and impressed. Can see quite a price difference across the firms, 33S Is obviously priced like still a full back, 20s would be more my price here

If a fred regular could get me £10 first and last at 33s with 888 id appreciate it, pm me to confirm happy to send before kick off

SUGGEST £10 WIN FIRST LAST JOE BRYAN 33S (OR 30S VICTOR)

THANK YOU ON FOR ME NOW, STILL NEEDS TO BE ON FRED IF FRED WANTS IT

Joe Bryan Bristol City v Cardiff First Goalscorer
30/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £310.00


Joe Bryan Bristol City v Cardiff Last Goalscorer
30/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £310.00

[horseplayer]

Been a lurker for a while, reading when I can and have followed a few winning tips, so muchos gracias for that.

I'm just a novice mug punter, on football mainly. Seen a couple of bets I like and thought id dip my toe in lol...


These 2 stuck out most when I was going through the fixtures. The prices seemed wrong based on home and away form...

Barnet v Hartlepool - Barnet boast the second best home record in the league W17 L4. They have W3 of the last 5 at home, D1 and L1 and have W5 of the last 7. In contrast, Hartlepool have the 2nd worst away record in the league W3 D1 L10 with their recent record reading W0 D1 L4.

Sky & PP are best priced 23/20 but 11/10 pretty much everywhere else. Recommend £25.


Port Vale v Colchester - Port Vale have the 4th best home record. W9 L1. Unbeaten in the last 12, W6 . Colchester have the 2nd worst away record, W3 L12. Conceding 49 goals in the process. Recent form reads L3 D1 and W1 (last week vs Bradford).

Boyles and 888 are best priced 20/21 and 19/20. Recommend £25.


Feel free to adjust stakes to whatever is deemed acceptable for a first time poster. Also apologies if you are restricted on any of those firms mentioned, im not familiar with where you guys can get on.


Cheers

Welcome to fred

gd lk with your first bets hopefully first of many

[TightEnd]

Been a lurker for a while, reading when I can and have followed a few winning tips, so muchos gracias for that.

I'm just a novice mug punter, on football mainly. Seen a couple of bets I like and thought id dip my toe in lol...


These 2 stuck out most when I was going through the fixtures. The prices seemed wrong based on home and away form...

Barnet v Hartlepool - Barnet boast the second best home record in the league W17 L4. They have W3 of the last 5 at home, D1 and L1 and have W5 of the last 7. In contrast, Hartlepool have the 2nd worst away record in the league W3 D1 L10 with their recent record reading W0 D1 L4.

Sky & PP are best priced 23/20 but 11/10 pretty much everywhere else. Recommend £25.


Port Vale v Colchester - Port Vale have the 4th best home record. W9 L1. Unbeaten in the last 12, W6 . Colchester have the 2nd worst away record, W3 L12. Conceding 49 goals in the process. Recent form reads L3 D1 and W1 (last week vs Bradford).

Boyles and 888 are best priced 20/21 and 19/20. Recommend £25.


Feel free to adjust stakes to whatever is deemed acceptable for a first time poster. Also apologies if you are restricted on any of those firms mentioned, im not familiar with where you guys can get on.


Cheers

welcome along

we can't use anywhere with those best prices (surprise surprise) but first time bets we support

so have taken slightly lower stakes at the best we can get

Barnet Barnet v Hartlepool Winner
11/10
Total Stake: £15.00
Potential Returns: £31.50

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Port Vale v Colchester United
Match Result
   Port Vale   10/11   
Total stake   15.00
Estimated return   28.64
Full stake   15.00
Full estimated return   28.64

[DonkBets]

Cheers guys.

Just to point out i edited my original post to show Barnet have Won 10, not 17. 17 is the total games played. My mistake.