Tips for Tikay

[DMorgan]

Anything looking good for the darts this evening?

Anderson most 180s vs Michael Smith I think is a bet at evens or better, as is RVB vs Wade at the 2.1 generally available

The 2.1 about Anderson is only available with Choral and Sly at time of writing so take the double with either of those if you can

In EV terms you're doing better keeping the double at a slightly worse price than splitting to singles to get a better price on one leg so I've just taken the double with BFSB. Evens for Anderson and 2.1 RVB.

I've also had singles on Chizzy at 8/1 vs MVG and Thornton at 17/2 vs Taylor, purely because I just don't see how anyone from this group of players is that much better than anyone else over 12 legs. At the UK Open last weekend MVG had his throw broken 3 times by an amateur qualifier in the quarter final. Fair enough he went on the win the tournament but 4 days later he's supposed to be a 1/4 shot over 12 legs against the biggest 180s hitter in the game? I'm not convinced.

Rec £50 double, Gary Anderson most 180s vs Michael Smith @2.1 and RVB most 180s vs James Wade @2.1 with Choral

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/michael-smith-v-gary-anderson/most-180s
http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/raymond-van-barneveld-v-james-wade/most-180s

If Choral is a no go then take the double of Anderson @2.0 and RVB @2.1 with PP, BFSB, Unib3t, blose

[TightEnd]

what are the 180 stats for rvb and wade please?

rvb last week, i watched exeter, looked desperately half-hearted and hit 1 x 180 in 11 legs. presumably an off-night (and i dont watch a lot of darts to know more than that, tbh!)

[DMorgan]

In his last 592 legs on TV Anderson has thrown 0.346 180s/leg compared to 0.262/leg over 320 for Smith and we get over even money Anderson


RVB chucked 0.286 180s/leg with a sample size of 590 legs, Wade 0.202/leg in 682 legs


Raymond always looks a bit sad, doesn't he?

[Bazzaboy]

Agree with Anderson most 180s however Wade most 180s at 8/5 is one of the bets of the night if you can get it.

[TightEnd]

don't know why he wont post it himself, but in case you didn't see it Dan

Keith Hawkins
7 mins ·

Dan, I just saw you put up Anderson to hit more 180s than Smith.

I couldn't back Anderson with stolen money at the moment.

He struggled terribly against Thornton last week and then got thrashed by an amateur in the UK Open.

He has hardly practiced since winning the World Championships (got a new baby and is loving life) and it really is showing.

[arbboy]

Ando also got a 'free illness pass' from Hearn from the opening week on the Prem League.  Pretty sure he wasn't ill but had just not picked up a dart since the World's and Hearn didn't want the current WC destroyed on the stage on the opening night.  Ando openly said after the world's that he wouldn't pick a dart up for a month after the World's.  I always get the impression with him that it is very much a job with Ando.   He certainly doesn't live and breathe the game like some and truely hates all the media side of being world champ.  Once kids come along that just makes the game even tougher.  Will be interesting to see how he goes this year generally.

[Horneris]

Chelt:

Following yesterday’s deluge, the ground is now soft. It could have been a lot worse as Stratford is not too far up the road and they got twice as much rainfall which has already forced the abandonment of their Monday fixture. No more rain is forecast until a few millimetres on Gold Cup day (don’t shoot the messenger!) but you can safely rule out good ground on Day 1, in the official description at least.

[DMorgan]

Points taken, I think its just a fundamental difference in approach between myself, Camel and Bazza. I'm unashamedly not a form guy, I'd much prefer to be backing the reversion to mean over a big data sample than the continuation of a short term trend.

Wade has looked very strong on the 180s in the PL this year but he's trying to overturn a guy in RVB that has throw 30% more 180s per leg than Wade has over a big sample size.

Likewise Anderson hasn't looked in great nick out on the circuit but in his four PL matches he has averaged 98.21 which lines up fairly closely with his TV 3-dart average in the last 15 months of 99.74

I'm certainly going to be the outlier in that I'm just betting by the numbers and not really taking into account short term factors but thats the strategy that I've chosen to go with and people can follow me in or not as they please. I'm well aware that one of the possible outcomes of my strategy is that I get my arse kicked all the way back to the drawing board but it'll be fun finding out

[Bazzaboy]

His son is nearly two so I'm not sure I'd class that as a new baby.

He is probably a bit undercooked but his form isn't that far away.

[arbboy]

Chelt:

Following yesterday’s deluge, the ground is now soft. It could have been a lot worse as Stratford is not too far up the road and they got twice as much rainfall which has already forced the abandonment of their Monday fixture. No more rain is forecast until a few millimetres on Gold Cup day (don’t shoot the messenger!) but you can safely rule out good ground on Day 1, in the official description at least.

Wow i was at the meeting on Saturday at Stratford and the ground wasn't that soft at all.  Must have had some serious rain in the last few days to call the meeting off 4 days in advance.

[tikay]

Points taken, I think its just a fundamental difference in approach between myself, Camel and Bazza. I'm unashamedly not a form guy, I'd much prefer to be backing the reversion to mean over a big data sample than the continuation of a short term trend.

Wade has looked very strong on the 180s in the PL this year but he's trying to overturn a guy in RVB that has throw 30% more 180s per leg than Wade has over a big sample size.

Likewise Anderson hasn't looked in great nick out on the circuit but in his four PL matches he has averaged 98.21 which lines up fairly closely with his TV 3-dart average in the last 15 months of 99.74

I'm certainly going to be the outlier in that I'm just betting by the numbers and not really taking into account short term factors but thats the strategy that I've chosen to go with and people can follow me in or not as they please. I'm well aware that one of the possible outcomes of my strategy is that I get my arse kicked all the way back to the drawing board but it'll be fun finding out

That's an interesting post, Dan. Like to see the occasional outlier.

[tikay]

Chelt:

Following yesterday’s deluge, the ground is now soft. It could have been a lot worse as Stratford is not too far up the road and they got twice as much rainfall which has already forced the abandonment of their Monday fixture. No more rain is forecast until a few millimetres on Gold Cup day (don’t shoot the messenger!) but you can safely rule out good ground on Day 1, in the official description at least.

Wow i was at the meeting on Saturday at Stratford and the ground wasn't that soft at all.  Must have had some serious rain in the last few days to call the meeting off 4 days in advance.

I have been out and about today, London-Midlands-London, and it was quite a shock to see so much flooding, with many major roads, including the A14 closed by flooding. In fact the A14 - a very interesting road, actuslly - was closed by floods in 2 separate locations, some distance apart.

[Karabiner]

Points taken, I think its just a fundamental difference in approach between myself, Camel and Bazza. I'm unashamedly not a form guy, I'd much prefer to be backing the reversion to mean over a big data sample than the continuation of a short term trend.

Wade has looked very strong on the 180s in the PL this year but he's trying to overturn a guy in RVB that has throw 30% more 180s per leg than Wade has over a big sample size.

Likewise Anderson hasn't looked in great nick out on the circuit but in his four PL matches he has averaged 98.21 which lines up fairly closely with his TV 3-dart average in the last 15 months of 99.74

I'm certainly going to be the outlier in that I'm just betting by the numbers and not really taking into account short term factors but thats the strategy that I've chosen to go with and people can follow me in or not as they please. I'm well aware that one of the possible outcomes of my strategy is that I get my arse kicked all the way back to the drawing board but it'll be fun finding out

That's an interesting post, Dan. Like to see the occasional outlier.

 

[tikay]

Points taken, I think its just a fundamental difference in approach between myself, Camel and Bazza. I'm unashamedly not a form guy, I'd much prefer to be backing the reversion to mean over a big data sample than the continuation of a short term trend.

Wade has looked very strong on the 180s in the PL this year but he's trying to overturn a guy in RVB that has throw 30% more 180s per leg than Wade has over a big sample size.

Likewise Anderson hasn't looked in great nick out on the circuit but in his four PL matches he has averaged 98.21 which lines up fairly closely with his TV 3-dart average in the last 15 months of 99.74

I'm certainly going to be the outlier in that I'm just betting by the numbers and not really taking into account short term factors but thats the strategy that I've chosen to go with and people can follow me in or not as they please. I'm well aware that one of the possible outcomes of my strategy is that I get my arse kicked all the way back to the drawing board but it'll be fun finding out

That's an interesting post, Dan. Like to see the occasional outlier.

 

Methuselah was King Outlier, no danger.

A little disappointed you did not want to discuss the A14 though. Fascinating road.

[Longines]

Wow i was at the meeting on Saturday at Stratford and the ground wasn't that soft at all.  Must have had some serious rain in the last few days to call the meeting off 4 days in advance.

Train station car park near me yesterday, about 30 miles from Stratford - rather happy I worked from home:

Click to see full-size image.