Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Newcastle are 11/2 generally, 6/1 in places, away to Tighty's Leicester tonight.

Is that about right, all things considered, or can they be Beneaten??


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/leicester-v-newcastle/winner

[exstream]

Newcastle are 11/2 generally, 6/1 in places, away to Tighty's Leicester tonight.

Is that about right, all things considered, or can they be Beneaten??


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/leicester-v-newcastle/winner

The exchange price is never wrong is it

[exstream]

Min is 5/2 with hills and beats betfair and is money back if second and is BOG?

[Karabiner]

9/2 Altior in a couple of spots must be a bet.

The leprechaun mob allowed me some unusually for them.

[nellberg]

9/2 Altior in a couple of spots must be a bet.

The leprechaun mob allowed me some unusually for them.

4 places with pads, and money back if 2nd.

[horseplayer]

paddy only 1/5th odds with the extra place

Be amazed if somebody doesnt offer 4 on "normal" terms tomorrow and possibly 5 places being the opener

[Peter-27]

The stewards in Mexico have made the following changes to the race result:

- Lucas di Grassi disqualified after his car was found to be underweight.
- Loic Duval has 15 seconds added to his finish time for repeatedly not respecting track limits.
- Jerome d’Ambrosio's fastest lap has been removed for cutting a corner.

This means that Jerome d’Ambrosio has won the race - good news if you got on the EW bet, although you might have to argue the settlement with the bookie.

Oh my, nice one Peter.

I watched the race, & try as I might, I can't take to this Formula at all, it feels like scaled up Scalextric to me, & the commentators need to try & force the excitement. Racing cars need to be noisy, too, not whine like a food blender. The races are always on Mickey Mouse tracks, too.

Great betting medium, though, as the bookies don't seem to have got it sussed yet, & you do, so keep the tips coming.

I'd deffo not get up at 5am to watch it, but next Sunday, I'll be watching the F1 opener, for sure.

It essentially is scaled up Scalextric, however the amount of development work and innovation in this series, even at this early stage, is of an extremely high level. I disagree that the commentators need to try and force excitement, for the majority of the race yesterday, the top four were separated by less than two seconds - you almost never get that in other open-wheel race series, but Formula E often seems to deliver that.

The cars could easily be made noisier, but then people would complain it's artificial. Unfortunately, that's just the nature of an electric powertrain rather than a traditional combustion engine. The circuits do feature a lot of tight hairpins, but this is necessary in order to bring the average lap speed of the cars down, and increase the length of the race. This will improve as energy storage capability and battery technology develops. This series is very much work in progress.

You're right, the bookies don't seem to have sussed it yet, but I would argue that they haven't sussed F1 either .. there's always so much value on the table in motorsport. Then again, I suppose if your knowledge is better than the traders, you'll always have the edge.

Why not get up at 5AM? The first race of the season is always a magical moment; we really have no idea what the pecking order will be. There's so many potential stories to tell, and so many different components that have to come together to make to truly great. There are such small margins between success and failure, particularly at the first race. It's man and machine locking battle, the finest machines in motorsport against the elements in an astonishing setting, coupled with such a sense of nostalgia and history! To control a Formula One car at 200 mph is one of the ultimate sporting challenges, and I think it's worth watching live  

In terms of bet settlement, they usually argue "first past the post", but in my experience, if you discuss it on chat and state that di Grassi "won" the race unfairly, they will always pay out. Discussing over e-mails is a little trickier.

The commentary does not need to CREATE the excitement if it's there Peter, & it was there (to a degree) yesterday, & yet the commentator was yelling like a madman. He needs to remember that not all of us are stupid, & the idea of tv is that we can actually SEE what is happening.

You completely missed my point as to getting up at 5am to watch F1. I'd not get up to watch Formula Scalextric, but I WOULD & WILL be up at 5am next Sunday for the F1.  

I know Jack (the commentator) personally, and he's like that in "real life" too. If I had one word to describe him, it would be excitable. It's more a reflection of him as a person, rather than trying to induce excitement. He is aware that his commentary style divides opinion somewhat, but on the whole he's generally well liked within the motorsport community.

Ahh, I mis-read your post - apologies.

Lolbrokes live chat saying their terms state they pay on original podium placing and won't change for any post-race disqualifications.

Great shout though Peter, thanks.

They will, you have to then say that part of the bet was for the race win, and he did win the race because di Grassi was placed unfairly. Then back it up that if you knew di Grassi's car was underweight (i.e. had all the relevant information prior to placing the bet), you would have bet differently. Essentially don't leave the chat and keep escalating the issue until you get paid, always works for me.

Their rules essentially state "first past the post", but the bet market (of half the bet) was "Race Winner". In this instance, those two things are conflicting, and by law, when there is ambiguity in written guidelines, the beneficiary is the person who did not write the guidelines.

Thanks Peter, when I get time I'll have another go at it.

Still no joy. Anyone else had any success?

I just scanned their terms and the only "first past the post" mention is

We will settle individual Grand Prix betting on the result of the podium presentation, regardless of any subsequent disqualifications.

the race in question wasn't a Grand Prix

I have obviously been in this position a lot, but have never had an issue. I suggest you keep pushing on with it. You're right, it's not a Grand Prix

[Karabiner]

paddy only 1/5th odds with the extra place

Be amazed if somebody doesnt offer 4 on "normal" terms tomorrow and possibly 5 places being the opener

Was about to say that I'm not a maths expert but the 9/2 appeals to me more as a win bet than EW @ 1/5 odds.

[Chompy]

Newcastle are 11/2 generally, 6/1 in places, away to Tighty's Leicester tonight.

Is that about right, all things considered, or can they be Beneaten??


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/leicester-v-newcastle/winner

The exchange price is never wrong is it

Nope.

Tighty - please be aware, just received this.......


 
Your Betfair account: xxxxxx

Dear Tony,

We’re writing to you with regards to your Betfair Sportsbook account.

Having reviewed your account, we are notifying you that your account will not be eligible for Betfair Sportsbook promotions, including Best Odds Guaranteed, in future.

We can assure you that this decision has only be taken after careful consideration and that it does not affect your ability to play on the Betfair Exchange and Betfair Gaming  channels.

Kind Regards,
Betfair Customer Services  
 

Wiiiiiiiiii

Cheltenham going is now Good to soft, soft patches. Fodds boys have all pulled the market. Can still get a bit of 1.07 on the exchange. This price is wrong, but it's not a big turnover event (in which the price can never be inherently 'wrong').

Ergo, barring an act of God, it's time for a...

[Doobs]

paddy only 1/5th odds with the extra place

Be amazed if somebody doesnt offer 4 on "normal" terms tomorrow and possibly 5 places being the opener

Was about to say that I'm not a maths expert but the 9/2 appeals to me more as a win bet than EW @ 1/5 odds.

9/2 matches the exchange, 9/10 4 places crushes it.  Don't think this is much of a maths thing, with all the "also rans", it seems clear first 4 should be a bit more short of evens. 

Anyway, g and t ready, stars plo8 on the side, kids already in bed, time to get to work.   

[Karabiner]

paddy only 1/5th odds with the extra place

Be amazed if somebody doesnt offer 4 on "normal" terms tomorrow and possibly 5 places being the opener

Was about to say that I'm not a maths expert but the 9/2 appeals to me more as a win bet than EW @ 1/5 odds.

9/2 matches the exchange, 9/10 4 places crushes it.  Don't think this is much of a maths thing, with all the "also rans", it seems clear first 4 should be a bit more short of evens. 

Anyway, g and t ready, stars plo8 on the side, kids already in bed, time to get to work.   

I also can't get betty on my PC currently and it's a little fiddly to mess about with it on my 'phone especially when PLO'ing so I'm even less of a maths-man than I was before.

[AndrewT]

Lolbrokes live chat saying their terms state they pay on original podium placing and won't change for any post-race disqualifications.

Great shout though Peter, thanks.

They will, you have to then say that part of the bet was for the race win, and he did win the race because di Grassi was placed unfairly. Then back it up that if you knew di Grassi's car was underweight (i.e. had all the relevant information prior to placing the bet), you would have bet differently. Essentially don't leave the chat and keep escalating the issue until you get paid, always works for me.

Their rules essentially state "first past the post", but the bet market (of half the bet) was "Race Winner". In this instance, those two things are conflicting, and by law, when there is ambiguity in written guidelines, the beneficiary is the person who did not write the guidelines.

Thanks Peter, when I get time I'll have another go at it.

Still no joy. Anyone else had any success?

I just scanned their terms and the only "first past the post" mention is

We will settle individual Grand Prix betting on the result of the podium presentation, regardless of any subsequent disqualifications.

the race in question wasn't a Grand Prix

I have obviously been in this position a lot, but have never had an issue. I suggest you keep pushing on with it. You're right, it's not a Grand Prix

Ladbrokes have told me to fk off to IBAS - does that actually work, anyone had experience?

[horseplayer]

Lolbrokes live chat saying their terms state they pay on original podium placing and won't change for any post-race disqualifications.

Great shout though Peter, thanks.

They will, you have to then say that part of the bet was for the race win, and he did win the race because di Grassi was placed unfairly. Then back it up that if you knew di Grassi's car was underweight (i.e. had all the relevant information prior to placing the bet), you would have bet differently. Essentially don't leave the chat and keep escalating the issue until you get paid, always works for me.

Their rules essentially state "first past the post", but the bet market (of half the bet) was "Race Winner". In this instance, those two things are conflicting, and by law, when there is ambiguity in written guidelines, the beneficiary is the person who did not write the guidelines.

Thanks Peter, when I get time I'll have another go at it.

Still no joy. Anyone else had any success?

I just scanned their terms and the only "first past the post" mention is

We will settle individual Grand Prix betting on the result of the podium presentation, regardless of any subsequent disqualifications.

the race in question wasn't a Grand Prix

I have obviously been in this position a lot, but have never had an issue. I suggest you keep pushing on with it. You're right, it's not a Grand Prix

Ladbrokes have told me to fk off to IBAS - does that actually work, anyone had experience?

Pm sent regarding this Andrew

[Doobs]

I am going to put a bet up now for Cheltenham as I think the price might go as it is bang on betfair already.  I am sure Rich has nothing else of interest going on right now!

2.10 Cheltenham

I was thinking I’d give this a miss as the each way terms are terrible.  Having looked again, this is a good race for a hills mobile bet, as Hills are top price everything.  Somebody told me on Saturday that there is a very strong stat in this race in that winners have usually won over 2.5 miles.  In addition when I looked through I really liked the look of The Game Changer that has been waiting for spring ground.  I expect there is a bad stat that horses that haven’t run since October normally finish nearer last than first but regardless of that I think we should bet £25 win only 18/1 The Game Changer (don’t take lower than 16/1) using Hills mobile.    The price is bang on betfair and we get the free bet for 2nd often enough to make this bet +EV.

[Doobs]

15.30  I am all over Annie Power if we get someone going 3/1 in the morning.  I know she has been injured, but I think she was the best hurdler a couple of years ago, and this other lot have spent that time showing how average they all are.  Definitely a heart bet amd not a head one, so I won't rec her for thread.

As I said above this lot are rubbish, so I am sure we should be looking for something that is a bit less visible.  5 year olds have a bad record in the race, but they mostly aren't that great.  Unfortunately we can only get 18/1 Top Notch with the Irish Roflers and neither I nor thread can get on, so will move on unless someone better crops up in the morning. 

Instead I prefer Sempre Medici.  It is 25/1 pretty much everywhere and just about beats betfair on the win price and place price.  It didn't run in a cheltenham novice last year, but has run well in a number of big enough hurdles this year (International (2nd), Red Mills (1st).  It shouldn't be good enough to win a champion, but this is a poor year with last year's top 4 all missing.

Suggest £25 e/w at 25/1 available in lots of places, but get quarter first 3 (prob tote/betbald and lads for thread, but way more choices for others)