Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

I am going to put a bet up now for Cheltenham as I think the price might go as it is bang on betfair already.  I am sure Rich has nothing else of interest going on right now!

2.10 Cheltenham

I was thinking I’d give this a miss as the each way terms are terrible.  Having looked again, this is a good race for a hills mobile bet, as Hills are top price everything.  Somebody told me on Saturday that there is a very strong stat in this race in that winners have usually won over 2.5 miles.  In addition when I looked through I really liked the look of The Game Changer that has been waiting for spring ground.  I expect there is a bad stat that horses that haven’t run since October normally finish nearer last than first but regardless of that I think we should bet £25 win only 18/1 The Game Changer (don’t take lower than 16/1) using Hills mobile.    The price is bang on betfair and we get the free bet for 2nd often enough to make this bet +EV.

Had a wind op since last run if you view that as a positive as well

[bergeroo]

I've got a ladies world T20 tip for anyone who is up early. It is tricky to find the markets but the best I've found so far is:

New Zealand spinner as Leigh Kasperek top tournament wicket taker 20/1 Betfair sports book, EW top 4 places. Recommend EW bet.

The leading wicket takers for other nations are listed 12s or better on there.

I know Fred seems to struggle getting on with them but some might want to get on.

In her most recent T20 warm up game in India vs England Kasparek recorded figures of 4/12. In her previous three matches in a series against Australia she had 3/26, 4/7 and 2/27.

She is Scottish and new on the scene in womens international cricket. She is the big favourite for top NZ wicket taker in their first match today but down the list for the tournament overall, I can only speculate that it is because she is so new she isn't included in any rankings. NZ are around joint third favourite and so expected to get to the semi finals where she would get an extra match and maybe even the final.

market here. I've also found it on bet365 at 18/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/womens-t20-world-cup/womens-twenty20-world-cup/top-bowler

EDIT: Also 20s on Paddy Power 1/4 odds top 4 places EW the same.

Market will close at 10am when first game starts...

[BigAdz]

i saw very late last night a quote from Tony Mullins that Vautour was going to the ryanar

i went to oc and saw that prices for him in this vary from 4/6 to 9/2

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/ryanair-chase/winner

are we talkng stale prices here, or is there still uncertainty as to which race he runs in?

if, if we knew he was a sure thng to run in the ryanair, would we be backng hm at 7/2+?

thanks

I would want to hear that from Willie Mullins, rather than his brother, but a speculative bet at 4-1/9-2, whilst it may be dead on the day, could also look like genius if he goes Ryanair.

I wonder, what are peoples thoughts about the first couple of days having an impact on the decision? EG, if Min/Annie/Vroom all get beat, would WM/ Richy Rich decide they just want to get a winner on the board? In which case Vautour would surely go Ryanair then?

I don't know.  If we can get evens with a run, then if we take the 9/2 we have to believe that the Ryanair is the most likely route.  I read it that the Gold Cup is the most likely race, so evens with a run is better than 9/2 taking your chances.   You would only correctly take the 9/2 if you believed that the chance of him running in the Ryanair was greater than 45%.

I suppose it was 45% that you trust a word that comes out of Mullins mouth!!

Hope a few had a save!

[BigAdz]

The interesting bit was PP had the biggest price on V.

Another theory closer to being proven, that just cos they are Irish and appear to know, they actually know f all

[horseplayer]

Cant find on oc but

Race won by largest distance 365 and bfspb still have ryanair at 25s

This is a big rick with the Vatour news should be 2nd or 3rd fav

Suggest the max to anyone who can

[horseplayer]

Gone now

Couldnt get to my 365 man quick enough, watch it win!

Still there with sportsbook if anyone can get me £20 appreciate it

[BigAdz]

Gone now

Couldnt get to my 365 man quick enough, watch it win!

Still there with sportsbook if anyone can get me £20 appreciate it

Sportsbook still ok

[TightEnd]

I am going to put a bet up now for Cheltenham as I think the price might go as it is bang on betfair already.  I am sure Rich has nothing else of interest going on right now!

2.10 Cheltenham

I was thinking I’d give this a miss as the each way terms are terrible.  Having looked again, this is a good race for a hills mobile bet, as Hills are top price everything.  Somebody told me on Saturday that there is a very strong stat in this race in that winners have usually won over 2.5 miles.  In addition when I looked through I really liked the look of The Game Changer that has been waiting for spring ground.  I expect there is a bad stat that horses that haven’t run since October normally finish nearer last than first but regardless of that I think we should bet £25 win only 18/1 The Game Changer (don’t take lower than 16/1) using Hills mobile.    The price is bang on betfair and we get the free bet for 2nd often enough to make this bet +EV.

this is on at 18-1 WH Mob, money back as free bet if 2nd

£25

[TightEnd]

15.30  I am all over Annie Power if we get someone going 3/1 in the morning.  I know she has been injured, but I think she was the best hurdler a couple of years ago, and this other lot have spent that time showing how average they all are.  Definitely a heart bet amd not a head one, so I won't rec her for thread.

As I said above this lot are rubbish, so I am sure we should be looking for something that is a bit less visible.  5 year olds have a bad record in the race, but they mostly aren't that great.  Unfortunately we can only get 18/1 Top Notch with the Irish Roflers and neither I nor thread can get on, so will move on unless someone better crops up in the morning. 

Instead I prefer Sempre Medici.  It is 25/1 pretty much everywhere and just about beats betfair on the win price and place price.  It didn't run in a cheltenham novice last year, but has run well in a number of big enough hurdles this year (International (2nd), Red Mills (1st).  It shouldn't be good enough to win a champion, but this is a poor year with last year's top 4 all missing.

Suggest £25 e/w at 25/1 available in lots of places, but get quarter first 3 (prob tote/betbald and lads for thread, but way more choices for others)   

Sempre Medici Cheltenham 15:30 Winner
25/1 Each Way (3 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £332.50

restricted

 15.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
2m 1/2f Hurdle Grade 1
Outright Betting
EW 1/4 1,2,3   Sempre Medici   25/1   
Total stake   30.00
Estimated return   498.75
Full stake   30.00
Full estimated return   498.75

[TightEnd]

Cant find on oc but

Race won by largest distance 365 and bfspb still have ryanair at 25s

This is a big rick with the Vatour news should be 2nd or 3rd fav

Suggest the max to anyone who can

10/1 sportsbook

by the time i found it, had gone

[TightEnd]

I've got a ladies world T20 tip for anyone who is up early. It is tricky to find the markets but the best I've found so far is:

New Zealand spinner as Leigh Kasperek top tournament wicket taker 20/1 Betfair sports book, EW top 4 places. Recommend EW bet.

The leading wicket takers for other nations are listed 12s or better on there.

I know Fred seems to struggle getting on with them but some might want to get on.

In her most recent T20 warm up game in India vs England Kasparek recorded figures of 4/12. In her previous three matches in a series against Australia she had 3/26, 4/7 and 2/27.

She is Scottish and new on the scene in womens international cricket. She is the big favourite for top NZ wicket taker in their first match today but down the list for the tournament overall, I can only speculate that it is because she is so new she isn't included in any rankings. NZ are around joint third favourite and so expected to get to the semi finals where she would get an extra match and maybe even the final.

market here. I've also found it on bet365 at 18/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/womens-t20-world-cup/womens-twenty20-world-cup/top-bowler

EDIT: Also 20s on Paddy Power 1/4 odds top 4 places EW the same.

Market will close at 10am when first game starts...

tried this

13 pence each way at betfair sportsbook

sorry, but good spot

[TightEnd]

if i have missed anything, shout

tikay might like to check his BFSB open bets, 29 feb, for some news on Vautour which might brigthen his day.

[tikay]

if i have missed anything, shout

tikay might like to check his BFSB open bets, 29 feb, for some news on Vautour which might brigthen his day.

Crikey, is that a Fred bet? Who gave us that?

£50 @ 9/2, very nice, Value Pie incoming.

[TightEnd]

if i have missed anything, shout

tikay might like to check his BFSB open bets, 29 feb, for some news on Vautour which might brigthen his day.

Crikey, is that a Fred bet? Who gave us that?

£50 @ 9/2, very nice, Value Pie incoming.

it was late at night

Patrick Mullins had just been quoted as saying it was going to the ryanair

i thought i would place it, and pop the quote on the thread in the morning, bound to be accepted etc

i popped the quote on the thread, to be told not to listen to patrick, listen to willie or something similar. need nrnb etc etc

forgot about it, then forgot to give you £50 for it at DTD because it looked like a mistake on my part

hopefully we've got lucky

[horseplayer]

Patrick, Tony or Willie?!!

Anyway good bet now regardless nice one