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Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 16577076 times)
BigAdz
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115245 on:
March 19, 2016, 01:04:29 PM »
Liking C at Tara. Did it myself last night. a big plus 1.
Ok. Down to business.
No prizes for guessing I am on Many Clouds at fancy prices already, but of all the performances during Cheltenham, one stood out to me as an Aintree warm up.
I didn't feel that Don Poli was ever really put into the Gold Cup yesterday. Normally he has his usual scrub along moment when they are getting him into a race, but he travelled well, if a little further behind the others, and I never felt, stupid as it may sound, they were really trying overly hard to involve him. I sensed it was almost like, we have Djakadam in the race(Mullins), and Cooper is on our main hope(Gigginstown), so unless it all falls into his lap, let him have a decent work out.
He jumped very well and ran on stoutly up the hill, and to me he had Aintree prep written all over it.
He has a win over the Clouds at Aintree, and I think the current 25-1 looks amazing value.
We do have to factor in he may not go, but, as I have said earlier, if Mullins has said he won't go, that probably means he has been trained for it all year!
Recommend £25 ew at 25s with Hills.
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Doobs
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Posts: 16738
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115246 on:
March 19, 2016, 01:30:10 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on March 19, 2016, 12:29:21 PM
Quote from: TightEnd on March 19, 2016, 12:02:17 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on March 19, 2016, 11:29:57 AM
Good morning all,
The 15.25 at Uttoxeter has a perfect E/W make up with 3 at the top who look plenty short enough and 16 runners. I like Champagne at Tara who brings form from the rock solid Betfair Hurdle that Agrapart hosed up in :-). 9/1 is variously available and I'd recommend £20 E/W.
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/uttoxeter/15:35/winner/
Looks like a fail on the attempted link but I can't see why, apologies for that.
link fixed
Champagne At Tara Uttoxeter 15:35 Winner
9/1 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Returns: £265.00
4 hours to wait with 16 runners. Good luck
Rather cleverly I thought, I backed Subtle Grey in the 4.10. Unfortunately that is down to 18 from 23. Any price this one ends up with 15 and not the 3.35
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
TightEnd
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115247 on:
March 19, 2016, 01:30:58 PM »
Quote from: BigAdz on March 19, 2016, 01:04:29 PM
Liking C at Tara. Did it myself last night. a big plus 1.
Ok. Down to business.
No prizes for guessing I am on Many Clouds at fancy prices already, but of all the performances during Cheltenham, one stood out to me as an Aintree warm up.
I didn't feel that Don Poli was ever really put into the Gold Cup yesterday. Normally he has his usual scrub along moment when they are getting him into a race, but he travelled well, if a little further behind the others, and I never felt, stupid as it may sound, they were really trying overly hard to involve him. I sensed it was almost like, we have Djakadam in the race(Mullins), and Cooper is on our main hope(Gigginstown), so unless it all falls into his lap, let him have a decent work out.
He jumped very well and ran on stoutly up the hill, and to me he had Aintree prep written all over it.
He has a win over the Clouds at Aintree, and I think the current 25-1 looks amazing value.
We do have to factor in he may not go, but, as I have said earlier, if Mullins has said he won't go, that probably means he has been trained for it all year!
Recommend £25 ew at 25s with Hills.
just out of interest many clouds won it off 160 and is in at 165 this year
Don Poli is in the weights a pound lower, and following the gold cup its rating will be?
had a good google but couldn't find an answer to this
(ie is it well in off 164?)
Horse Age/Wgt Rating
MANY CLOUDS (IRE) 9-11-10 165
DON POLI (IRE) 7-11-09 164
SILVINIACO CONTI (FR) 10-11-08 163
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) 10-11-07 162
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BigAdz
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Posts: 8140
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115248 on:
March 19, 2016, 01:41:53 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on March 19, 2016, 01:30:58 PM
Quote from: BigAdz on March 19, 2016, 01:04:29 PM
Liking C at Tara. Did it myself last night. a big plus 1.
Ok. Down to business.
No prizes for guessing I am on Many Clouds at fancy prices already, but of all the performances during Cheltenham, one stood out to me as an Aintree warm up.
I didn't feel that Don Poli was ever really put into the Gold Cup yesterday. Normally he has his usual scrub along moment when they are getting him into a race, but he travelled well, if a little further behind the others, and I never felt, stupid as it may sound, they were really trying overly hard to involve him. I sensed it was almost like, we have Djakadam in the race(Mullins), and Cooper is on our main hope(Gigginstown), so unless it all falls into his lap, let him have a decent work out.
He jumped very well and ran on stoutly up the hill, and to me he had Aintree prep written all over it.
He has a win over the Clouds at Aintree, and I think the current 25-1 looks amazing value.
We do have to factor in he may not go, but, as I have said earlier, if Mullins has said he won't go, that probably means he has been trained for it all year!
Recommend £25 ew at 25s with Hills.
just out of interest many clouds won it off 160 and is in at 165 this year
Don Poli is in the weights a pound lower, and following the gold cup its rating will be?
had a good google but couldn't find an answer to this
(ie is it well in off 164?)
Horse Age/Wgt Rating
MANY CLOUDS (IRE) 9-11-10 165
DON POLI (IRE) 7-11-09 164
SILVINIACO CONTI (FR) 10-11-08 163
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) 10-11-07 162
Technically, if its rating goes up, then yes, it could be well in.
Personally, I've seen enough, so called "well in" horses completely bomb in the National to not worry too much about the hype.
I like class, and the potential to stay the 4.5m in a top class field. Even Mon Mome @ 100-1 had the class to run in a Gold Cup, and that always seems to be a good starting point as the quality of the race improves year on year and the weights get more compressed, therefore, again, playing into the hands of the class horses.
I thought MC at Kelso last week was as classy a performance as he has put in yet, but Poli can come in second and we still get well paid!
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TightEnd
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115249 on:
March 19, 2016, 01:45:24 PM »
we can do a rain dance too
Don Poli Grand National Winner
25/1 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £831.25
chances it runs? 50-50? higher? lower?
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
BigAdz
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Posts: 8140
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115250 on:
March 19, 2016, 01:50:53 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on March 19, 2016, 01:45:24 PM
we can do a rain dance too
Don Poli Grand National Winner
25/1 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £831.25
chances it runs? 50-50? higher? lower?
I think and hope a lot higher. I dont see too many other Mullins horses at the top of the market and he
may
still need it to win the Trainer Title.
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Ledders
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Posts: 340
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115251 on:
March 19, 2016, 01:52:29 PM »
20/1, NRNB and 5 places on bet365 for anyone else interested
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Chompy
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Posts: 11503
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115252 on:
March 19, 2016, 02:05:14 PM »
Quote from: Ledders on March 19, 2016, 01:52:29 PM
20/1, NRNB and 5 places on bet365 for anyone else interested
This is a million times better than taking 25-1 and losing the steak if he doesn't run.
Don Poli is only seven and has only run seven times over fences. That may ultimately sway connections in another direction.
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BigAdz
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Posts: 8140
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115253 on:
March 19, 2016, 02:15:09 PM »
Quote from: Chompy on March 19, 2016, 02:05:14 PM
Quote from: Ledders on March 19, 2016, 01:52:29 PM
20/1, NRNB and 5 places on bet365 for anyone else interested
This is a million times better than taking 25-1 and losing the steak if he doesn't run.
Don Poli is only seven and has only run seven times over fences. That may ultimately sway connections in another direction.
Would have suggested this, but gather we are persona non gratis here. The suggestion was made because if he runs, he will be sub 10-1, I expect.
«
Last Edit: March 19, 2016, 02:19:57 PM by BigAdz
»
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nellberg
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Posts: 765
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115254 on:
March 19, 2016, 03:00:52 PM »
Quote from: BigAdz on March 19, 2016, 02:15:09 PM
Quote from: Chompy on March 19, 2016, 02:05:14 PM
Quote from: Ledders on March 19, 2016, 01:52:29 PM
20/1, NRNB and 5 places on bet365 for anyone else interested
This is a million times better than taking 25-1 and losing the steak if he doesn't run.
Don Poli is only seven and has only run seven times over fences. That may ultimately sway connections in another direction.
Would have suggested this, but gather we are persona non gratis here. The suggestion was made because if he runs, he will be sub 10-1, I expect.
365 option looks a great way of doing it for those that can. Would go off 2nd fav if running. As mentioned, trainers tittle for Mullins could have a bearing on it, they don't need poli for 3 mile chases in Ireland since they have cossack.
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JohnCharver
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Posts: 1249
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115255 on:
March 19, 2016, 03:19:22 PM »
Quote from: nellberg on March 19, 2016, 03:00:52 PM
Quote from: BigAdz on March 19, 2016, 02:15:09 PM
Quote from: Chompy on March 19, 2016, 02:05:14 PM
Quote from: Ledders on March 19, 2016, 01:52:29 PM
20/1, NRNB and 5 places on bet365 for anyone else interested
This is a million times better than taking 25-1 and losing the steak if he doesn't run.
Don Poli is only seven and has only run seven times over fences. That may ultimately sway connections in another direction.
Would have suggested this, but gather we are persona non gratis here. The suggestion was made because if he runs, he will be sub 10-1, I expect.
365 option looks a great way of doing it for those that can. Would go off 2nd fav if running. As mentioned, trainers tittle for Mullins could have a bearing on it, they don't need poli for 3 mile chases in Ireland since they have cossack.
Do gigginstown give a damn if he wins the trainers title? They will make the call and as shown with the ryanair runners, dont tend to give a crap what the trainers think. Certainly arent going to risk a 7yo over the national course for him.
Not disagreeing with the bet imo its NRNB absolute bet to nothing. He would be the best horse in the race if he handles it.
Valseur lido is also the better a better bet for punchestown, don polis tank there last season making the bet more likely.
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Tal
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Posts: 24288
"He's always at it!"
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115256 on:
March 19, 2016, 04:15:40 PM »
Quote from: Tal on March 19, 2016, 11:39:20 AM
17 runners in the silver cup today. 4 places 1/4 everywhere.
Nicky Henderson says he loves Champagne Express but the last run was a disappointment. Nico missing on top, too.
I still can't resist at 25/1.
Should have resisted. Nico leaving the ride to get on another horse was the clue.
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JohnCharver
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115257 on:
March 19, 2016, 04:34:18 PM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on March 19, 2016, 11:29:57 AM
Good morning all,
The 15.25 at Uttoxeter has a perfect E/W make up with 3 at the top who look plenty short enough and 16 runners. I like Champagne at Tara who brings form from the rock solid Betfair Hurdle that Agrapart hosed up in :-). 9/1 is variously available and I'd recommend £20 E/W.
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/uttoxeter/15:35/winner/
Looks like a fail on the attempted link but I can't see why, apologies for that.
link fixed
urgh, nice bet.
Twice Ive been done there today when running all over them
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115258 on:
March 19, 2016, 04:38:10 PM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on March 19, 2016, 11:29:57 AM
Good morning all,
The 15.25 at Uttoxeter has a perfect E/W make up with 3 at the top who look plenty short enough and 16 runners. I like Champagne at Tara who brings form from the rock solid Betfair Hurdle that Agrapart hosed up in :-). 9/1 is variously available and I'd recommend £20 E/W.
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/uttoxeter/15:35/winner/
Looks like a fail on the attempted link but I can't see why, apologies for that.
link fixed
Nice one Kuku, 2nd @9/1. Happy with that.
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BigAdz
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Posts: 8140
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115259 on:
March 19, 2016, 04:57:08 PM »
Good effort Kush.
A hoarse voice got hoarser!
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