Tips for Tikay

[bergeroo]

Happy with the bet. Be interested to see how the next match is priced, however if they are already through I'd be a little cautious as they might drop Devine down the order to give their middle order more time at the crease as they did in one of the warm ups. I don't think winning or finishing second in the group will make too much difference as the top teams in the other group seem relatively even, so no need to avoid anyone, plus it might not be clear who will win the other group anyway.

[DungBeetle]

Not till Weds morning but I think selling England over Afghanistan is a spread bet at 45.  You can never count against England messing up royally and even if they likely win break even is them winning by 45 runs or chasing for loss of 4.5 wickets.  Just don't see how anyone could buy at 53.  Afghanistan are not total mugs with bat or ball.

[Chompy]

Seaniemac are changing. They're no longer using Boil prices and will be relaunching in August. Anyone with funds in there should empty.

Just found out Longchamp is shut all year for renovation. They planning on turning it into a racecourse?

[superwomble]

Peter, thanks for a great tip on Vettel - I wasn't sure whether to have a punt on it but found a fiver free bet in my Lolbrookes account and thought "why not?!" Lovely jubbly!

Would have thanked you yesterday but I was a tad busy winning a trip to Las Vegas!

Click to see full-size image.

[BigAdz]

Peter, thanks for a great tip on Vettel - I wasn't sure whether to have a punt on it but found a fiver free bet in my Lolbrookes account and thought "why not?!" Lovely jubbly!

Would have thanked you yesterday but I was a tad busy winning a trip to Las Vegas!

Click to see full-size image.

Nice one SW

[TightEnd]

what does your package involve?

how did you win it? ie how much not "i had aces in the big blind and he raised..."!

been to vegas before?

please do not be one of these vulgar people that wears football tops in vegas sports lounges. desn't reflect well on our country, especially if its a peterborough shirt

[Tal]

Anand beats Aronian. Karjakin has only drawn and Caruana is struggling.  Anand joint leader after 9/14 rounds.

[TightEnd]

Anand beats Aronian. Karjakin has only drawn and Caruana is struggling.  Anand joint leader after 9/14 rounds.

FIDE Candidates   Anand   13/1   20            

remind me who was favouriter ante-post please?

who has VA got to play? any tottenham v leicester's coming up or does he have to play also-rans like man c, man u and chelsea?

(my one season to write that)

[Peter-27]

Thanks guys! A profit of £93.75 for me personally this weekend. Obviously it depends which bets you got on though.

Some worked great, some really didn't. In terms of the race, things were largely skewed by the timing of the red flag. Great race though!

Many thanks Peter, Vettel to lead after the first lap was my personal fave!  

Well done Peter.  I would be interested for your thoughts on who was helped the most by the red flag (Grosjean presumably) and who was hampered just to interpret how the spread prices have moved for constructors.

Thanks to everyone who congratulated me

Grosjean and the two Renault's were helped by the red flag, although the Renault's still both finished just outside the points, sadly for them. The big losers were the Force India's, Toro Rosso's, and also Wehrlein who actually had competitive pace, and would have been much closer to the pack without the red flag.

Thanks guys! A profit of £93.75 for me personally this weekend. Obviously it depends which bets you got on though.

Some worked great, some really didn't. In terms of the race, things were largely skewed by the timing of the red flag. Great race though!

Many thanks Peter, Vettel to lead after the first lap was my personal fave!  

Well done Peter.  I would be interested for your thoughts on who was helped the most by the red flag (Grosjean presumably) and who was hampered just to interpret how the spread prices have moved for constructors.

i would like a view on toro rosso please

to corroborate or otherwise the following

my view was

qualified 5th and 6th and ran that before the red flag. hamilton could not get past verstappen

after the red flag they (inexplicably?) kept softs on like ferrari did, when the clear call looked to be mediums and not stop again. perhaps thats too simplistic.

they then bungled their pit stop strategy bringing sainz in before verstappen, despite him being behind

they then botched verstappen's stop

the combination of this put verstappen behind sainz and both behind haas/hulk/bott and one other i forget. palmer maybe

so the net result was that the toro rosso's finished 9th and 10th where if they had one stopped they would/could have finished 5th-6th (certainly ahead of the haas 6th+ gaggle of cars) behind merc x 2, vettel and daniel ricc.

Meanwhile Max was behaving like my 18 year old when he's woken up to go to college. Only my 18 year old isn't stropping moodily when he's driving at 200mph

i think (correct me if i am wrong) that the 2015 ferrari unit in the back of the car this year makes them very competitive in the early races because it adds up to a second in lap time, but they will get swallowed up later in the season as others develop and they are limited in the tokens they can spend on a 2015 power unit

i know (because i backed it and lost) that max was 7/4 top six finish for melbourne and think if we see similar for bahrain its another bet. Or not?

How this all reflects or should reflects in speads for the season i don't know.

You summed up Toro Rosso's race quite well. The decision to go onto softs has justification, but it turned out to the be wrong decision. The idea was to have a quick burst on soft tyres, to try and gain some positions/pull away from the pack - and then change on to mediums, where towards the end of the race, cars following this strategy would have much fresher tyres than others, and should be able to carve their way back through. Didn't work out that way because the lap time delta between the softs and mediums was not as high as expected (lack of data on this due to wet Friday practice sessions) and the medium's didn't degrade as expected.

Toro Rosso do have 2015 Ferrari engine's, but that's still considerably lacking in comparison to the Mercedes engines. Toro Rosso are strong because they have good aero efficiency at low speed, with an extremely low drag co-effieicient; this means they're quick on slow speed corners and straights. They will tail off as the season progresses because they will have no engine development (Ferrari are no longer working on the 2015 engine), and also because the tracks later in the season don't really suit the characteristics of their car. It's going to be interesting to see where they end up, I'm expecting the battle for third to be extremely tight between them, Williams, Force India and Red Bull come the end of the season.

Bahrain is a bit of a unique circuit as performance is often based on how each car deals with the high temperatures. I need to do some investigation into this really, but I wouldn't expect Toro Rosso to do fantastically well; they will be quick enough to score points though.

Thanks guys! A profit of £93.75 for me personally this weekend. Obviously it depends which bets you got on though.

Some worked great, some really didn't. In terms of the race, things were largely skewed by the timing of the red flag. Great race though!

Many thanks Peter, Vettel to lead after the first lap was my personal fave!  

Well done Peter.  I would be interested for your thoughts on who was helped the most by the red flag (Grosjean presumably) and who was hampered just to interpret how the spread prices have moved for constructors.

i would like a view on toro rosso please

to corroborate or otherwise the following

my view was

qualified 5th and 6th and ran that before the red flag. hamilton could not get past verstappen

after the red flag they (inexplicably?) kept softs on like ferrari did, when the clear call looked to be mediums and not stop again. perhaps thats too simplistic.

they then bungled their pit stop strategy bringing sainz in before verstappen, despite him being behind

they then botched verstappen's stop

the combination of this put verstappen behind sainz and both behind haas/hulk/bott and one other i forget. palmer maybe

so the net result was that the toro rosso's finished 9th and 10th where if they had one stopped they would/could have finished 5th-6th (certainly ahead of the haas 6th+ gaggle of cars) behind merc x 2, vettel and daniel ricc.

Meanwhile Max was behaving like my 18 year old when he's woken up to go to college. Only my 18 year old isn't stropping moodily when he's driving at 200mph

i think (correct me if i am wrong) that the 2015 ferrari unit in the back of the car this year makes them very competitive in the early races because it adds up to a second in lap time, but they will get swallowed up later in the season as others develop and they are limited in the tokens they can spend on a 2015 power unit

i know (because i backed it and lost) that max was 7/4 top six finish for melbourne and think if we see similar for bahrain its another bet. Or not?

How this all reflects or should reflects in speads for the season i don't know.

Toros were given an upgrade by the spreads whilst force India were savaged.  Force India is actually suspended as well but think this is due to financial concerns surrounding the owner?  Renault were also chopped in half although I didn't think they looked too bad over the whole race weekend (got to Q2 and ran okay at times during race)

They're right to raise Toro Rosso based on the underlying speed the car has. Although it should have been higher in the first place really. You're right about Force India, although the ironic thing is that their finances have never been better - one of the most secure teams on the grid right now. I'll find time to look at the spreads over the next few days and advise accordingly.

Lord Peter of Motorsport

Can we make this name stick?

Peter, thanks for a great tip on Vettel - I wasn't sure whether to have a punt on it but found a fiver free bet in my Lolbrookes account and thought "why not?!" Lovely jubbly!

Would have thanked you yesterday but I was a tad busy winning a trip to Las Vegas!

Click to see full-size image.

Thanks very much, and congratulations on your win!! I'm not jealous at all. 

[Tal]

Anand beats Aronian. Karjakin has only drawn and Caruana is struggling.  Anand joint leader after 9/14 rounds.

FIDE Candidates   Anand   13/1   20            

remind me who was favouriter ante-post please?

who has VA got to play? any tottenham v leicester's coming up or does he have to play also-rans like man c, man u and chelsea?

(my one season to write that)

Anand's remaining fixtures (with his colours) are:

Wednesday: Caruana (black)
Thursday: Karjakin (white)
Friday: Nakamura (black)

Sunday: Giri (white)
Monday: Svidler (black)

After tomorrow's rest day, the next two games that will be pivotal.

Full schedule here: http://en.chessbase.com/post/candidates-r09-anand-beats-aronian

As for odds, I had to check the original post...

I think we should consider a position in the Candidates chess tournament for next month. This is the tournament that determines who gets to play Magnus Carlsen for the World Championship.

Hikaru Nakamura, Levon Aronian and Fabiano Caruana are all around the 7/2 mark. Nakamura is inconsistent, Caruana played reasonably in Wijk aan Zee but had a monumental blow up in his last game and Aronian is, despite his incredible talent, known for struggling in big elite comps when the pressure is really on. In horse racing terms, they are understandably at the head of the market, but one jumps untidily, one has stamina doubts and one struggles at Cheltenham.

Karjakin can't draw his way to victory. He's The Giant Bolster or TeaForThree type: he will plod around the course and finish high enough to make you think he's always in contention,  but he probably isn't. Giri is better than that but he has a mistake in his locker and 9/2 is about his price.

That leaves us with the three outsiders. As much as I like Peter Svidler (and he has just spent two weeks analysing most of these chaps' games for the commentary at Wijk aan Zee), I don't see him having the power to outmuscle or the skill to outplay this field.

Now, we have the only two people in the field who have competed for a World Title.

Veselin Topalov - the making who came roaring back in 2015 after a few years of relative indifference - is 9/1. He was world number 2 in July last year, behind only Carlsen. However, he got royally beaten up in the London Chess Classic in December and hasn't been back since. He has an attacking style but with that comes risk.

That leaves 46 year old Viswanathan Anand. He was the last World Champ, losing to Carlsen the last twice. He surprised the bookies when he won the last Candidates comp and I look at this field and see exactly the same sort of field: question marks, plodders and so on.

He's currently playing a quickplay event this weekend in Zurich against Giri, Aronian, Nakamura, Shirov and Kramnik. He had a great Saturday, defeating Giri and spanking Aronian. If he wins this event, I can't see 13/1 lasting. I will say Anand has a poor record against Nakamura historically, but this is a high pressure tournament and you can't back a 13/1 shot without accepting some negatives.

Two former World Champions (Topalov won the FIDE World Championship a few years ago, which was the chess equivalent of the BDO Darts) and two people who have been through the Candidates cycle and won it. Course and distance winners and both in the top three in the ratings just a few months ago.

I'm holding fire on Topalov for now. His price won't improve much between now and kick off, whereas Anand's may well.

The 13/1 is with Three Fat Ladies (888), which I understand we have. Recommend £20 on Vishy Anand to win.

If memory serves, 888 and unibet had their own markets and different prices. Nakamura has struggled for consistency in his games. Caruana needs to hold this game he's playing against Giri, really.

As I noted above, Anand has a poor record against Nakamura, so that should be interesting. Also, as one of the tie breakers is head to head, Anand's loss against Karjakin could be decisive.

Long way to go, though.

[Tal]

Apologies. I forgot to post the obligatory post-match interview:



Anand discusses:
- his choice of opening (the Italian has been out of fashion for a long time)
- the flow of the game (he had the better if it throughout)
- one move at the end (King to h5 was a very surprising error, which almost allowed Aronian to snatch a draw)
- and of course, the forthcoming rest day.

Over to you, Shreevesy.

He interviews everyone, by the way. Caruana battled for seven hours today to hold Giri to a draw. Giri walks past Caruana in a grey suit at about 40 seconds. Cue giggles.

[bergeroo]

LADIES CRICKET!

New Zealand women comprehensively demolished tournament favourites Australia in the Women's T20 cricket world cup today.

The tournament overall odds on bet365 (which I know Fred doesn't have) are now:
AUS 2/1
ENG 10/3
NZ 7/2
INDIA 11/2

EW terms top 2 1/2 odds

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/womens-t20-world-cup/womens-twenty20-world-cup/winner

NZ look almost certain to win the group now, which means they would likely avoid England who would be favourites to top the other group. They can also only play favourites Australia in the final. NZ have also shown they can beat Australia, both here and in previous recent matches with them.

Seems like a great spot to bet on New Zealand.

If their price remains the same and England beat India tomorrow then it makes it even more of an enticing prospect as that makes it even more likely England would win the group and probably face Australia in the semi final.

[pleno1]

This might come across poorly but is there any merit in small quick bet on trump giving the recent Brussels disaster? If it changes the line any way possible it would surely be in favour of trump and guess the sites don't take that into account yet? Or is this not a good way to look at it?

[Doobs]

This might come across poorly but is there any merit in small quick bet on trump giving the recent Brussels disaster? If it changes the line any way possible it would surely be in favour of trump and guess the sites don't take that into account yet? Or is this not a good way to look at it?

Trump supporters know where Brussels is? 

Flippancy over, it can't move the line to any noticeable degree.  The nearer it is to home, then the more it is going to get noticed.  I know it is American Airlines, but still several thousand miles from home.  It was in Washington, then maybe it will make a big enough difference.   But even then there could be a backlash against Trump as some people will always be willing to blame Trump as much as the terrorists for the bomb.

Just don't think there is money to be made, sorry. 

[horseplayer]

http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/35863316

Not sure why this is under football on the BBC website but anyway one for ex and lol e sports fans