Tips for Tikay

[JohnCharver]

10.5-1 the field on the machine for the National...

betway going 10s on many clouds

[BigAdz]

10.5-1 the field on the machine for the National...

Give us the winner would be a bigger help!

[Ironside]

everytime aberdeen close the gap a little on celtic they go an truely mess it up

this morning aberdeen were as low as 8.0 for the title on one site after tonight you can basically name your own price i would think

[doubleup]

Think there is a great value bet in 3 ball matches today.

Speith is now at best 2/1 to win the whole tournament.

In his 3 ball match today, he is 5/6 to beat Casey and DeChambeau.

Looks like a bet to me.

Get some views but recommend £50 at 5/6 with bald geezer.

any opinions on this please? we can safely ignore the amateur and treat it as casey v spieth?

doesn't 5/6 reflect what we all know, or should he be shorter?

From reading the previews dont think we can ignore the amateur not like having ian Woosnam in a 3 ball

word

[Karabiner]

Think there is a great value bet in 3 ball matches today.

Speith is now at best 2/1 to win the whole tournament.

In his 3 ball match today, he is 5/6 to beat Casey and DeChambeau.

Looks like a bet to me.

Get some views but recommend £50 at 5/6 with bald geezer.

any opinions on this please? we can safely ignore the amateur and treat it as casey v spieth?

doesn't 5/6 reflect what we all know, or should he be shorter?

From reading the previews dont think we can ignore the amateur not like having ian Woosnam in a 3 ball

word

Just played his 5th on 18 from a very similar spot as Woosie famously did

[nellberg]

Coral have some interesting season-long cricket markets priced up. They have batsman groups of 6 and bowler groups of 4 for each county.

Couple of prices stand out in the bowling groups (wickets taken) :

Hogan at 5/4 against Wagg, Meschede and Salter
Magoffin at 5/4 against Shahzad, Robinson and Briggs

Hogan last season took 48 wickets in 14 games (missed 2 on paternity leave). That's a pretty average return but still beat Wagg (45 in 16), Meschede (40 in 16 games) and Salter (25 in 12). Hogan has spent the winter playing for his Australian state side (W.A) and is 4th top wicket taker in Sheffield shield cricket (37 in 9 games), so he comes into the season in good form. Wagg's been around for years, he isn't likely to suddenly improve. Meschede is a decent cricketer, but more an all-rounder and useful in limited overs. Salter is a young spinner who averages less than 2 wickets a game, he's unlikely to challenge.

Magoffin is favourite to be the top wicket taker in the league. He took 69 wickets in Div 1 last year, and should be just as prolific in Div 2 this year. Briggs only played 8 county championship games last year and may get more cricket this year after his move to Sussex from Hampshire , but he only managed 19 wickets and Magoffin should be clear of him by mid-summer. Robinson got 46 in 11 games, but has had disciplinary issues in the past and isn't guaranteed of a spot in the side. Shahzad took 22 in 5 games, but is injury prone hence why he only played 5 games. Magoffin is knocking on a bit (36 years old now) but has just signed a new 2-year deal so must feel he has plenty of cricket left in him.

I would say only injuries would stop these from copping, but both of my picks aren't spring chickens. Magoffin didn't play any List "A" cricket last year, and it may be that these 2 are saved for red-ball cricket this year, which would be an advantage.

is it worth the risk tying up the money for 5 months at 4/1 the double?

[dino1980]

I found it interesting in the draft that  the eligibility, ranking and perceived ability by 'experts' was based on performance in live MTTs, whereas the league is mostly online and contains a lot of heads up. Some people in the teams are amongst the best heads up players in the world or at least have a lot of experience. Some players are not noted for their heads up ability or have barely played online in recent years... I'd be interested to see if the price reflects that or it is based on name recognition

 

Can we bet on the Global Poker League anywhere???

BetStars had prices for this week's games.

and Phill, what is the (potential) angle?

i watched a bit of it, for research pruposes, and wasn't too enthused but early days

From memory ElkY was favourite against Jungleman for their HU match this week. That seemed odd to me.
 
Definitely think there might be value in backing some of the lesser known Russians/Honk Kong Stars players if they're experienced online.

[bergeroo]

Will be having a look next week for sure. I wonder if any high street bookies or other firms will price this up, or indeed if any of them know it exists!

I found it interesting in the draft that  the eligibility, ranking and perceived ability by 'experts' was based on performance in live MTTs, whereas the league is mostly online and contains a lot of heads up. Some people in the teams are amongst the best heads up players in the world or at least have a lot of experience. Some players are not noted for their heads up ability or have barely played online in recent years... I'd be interested to see if the price reflects that or it is based on name recognition

 

Can we bet on the Global Poker League anywhere???

BetStars had prices for this week's games.

and Phill, what is the (potential) angle?

i watched a bit of it, for research pruposes, and wasn't too enthused but early days

From memory ElkY was favourite against Jungleman for their HU match this week. That seemed odd to me.

[Tal]

If anyone has backed Cameron Smith to be top Australian (rather than Australasian), the situation at the half way stage is:

Jason Day +1
Cameron Smith +3
Adam Scott +4

If you are Australasia-ing, above that list are Matsuyama  (-1) and Aphibarnrat (E).

Branden Grace made a graceful exit and cannot win top South African golfist.

[Doobs]

I think we should have a couple more in the National. 

O'Faolain's Boy ran well for a long time in the Gold Cup and has won an RSA.  I think he should be a bit shorter than 33/1 and victor are paying 6 places.  He has never gone so far, but hopefully he is going to stay.  Think 6 places makes up for it.  Suggest 25 e/w with victor

The other is Kruzhlinin.  He has already run in the race, so definitely stayed, albeit slowly.  I think he is now a better horse with a better trainer.  He has a decent jockey too.  Corals are going 33/1 5 places amongst others.  Suggest 25 e/w.

And Nina is getting backed on Betfair, so our bet on Sir Des Champs isn't going to be so bad as it looked last night. 

[Marky147]

OFB has just been w/d.

[tikay]

Had a quick look but doesn't look like you have a bet for the County Championship season.  I saw Tighty tipped Warwickshire at 13/2 on the Betting Emporium newsletter and think that's a pretty solid bet.  Haven't got time to do a full analysis of all the teams but I'll look at Warwickshire since that's the team I know very well, and the bet Tighty suggested...

The batting looks really strong for a change.  The top 5 will be Chopra, Westwood, Bell, Trott, Hain.  Sam Hain will play for England and is more than capable of 1000 runs this season.  He qualifies for England this September and whilst that will be too early for him, if he can keep scoring runs it shouldn't take long (currently averaging over 41 from 23 Div 1 games).  His top score was 28 in his 4 pre-season innings and 25 was his top score in his last 6 Championship innings last year, so that's a bit of a worry but with Porterfield (Ireland captain) and Evans (more and more reliable these days) waiting there is plenty of backup.  Fingers crossed Chopra without the captaincy will score 1000+ again (like he was every year until he took the role on).  No need to talk about Bell or Trott, arguably the strongest 3 & 4 combo the CC has seen in the modern era.  The middle order of Ambrose, Woakes and Clarke is very strong and have got the top order out of trouble time and time again over the years, although they shouldn't have that pressure this season.  The "tail" will feature the likes of Barker, Patel, Wright (all averaging 20+) and Rankin/Hannon-Dalby (actual tail-enders!)

Bowling has more depth than any county (Yorkshire included), although Yorkshire can certainly boast a better 1st team attack.  Jeetan Patel will lead the spin department, although Poysden will be pushing to break into the 1st team late in the season when 2 spinners can be justified.  I think Javed (other spinner) will be used almost exclusively as a 1 day bowler this season but is a more than capable with bat & ball if needed.  The pace attack will be constantly rotated - allrounders Clarke and Woakes should play every game, then I guess the likes of Wright, Barker, Rankin, Hannon-Dalby and Jones will be competing for 2 spots based around form/freshness, although the later 2 are mainly used in shorter forms of the game.  With 10 bowlers competing for 5 spots, injuries shouldn't be a problem, especially when you consider only Woakes has any chance of an international call up (I checked Ireland's fixtures and Rankin should only miss 1 CC game this season).  2-3 seasons ago pretty much every single 1st team bowler got called up for England, England A, Ireland or New Zealand.  

So, plenty of positives.  I can see 3 problems:

a) Bell getting back in the England team would leave a massive hole in the batting and captaincy.  Woakes is the vice-captain and will take over in this scenario, which seems bizarre given that he is the other player England will almost certainly call upon during the summer.  

b) For (almost) 2 seasons Warwickshire were competing for all 3 trophies.  After a 1st/2nd/2nd in 2014, we looked set for a similar return in 2015 only for it to go completely tits up. They never showed up for 20/20 Finals Day, lost 2 County Championship games by very small margins at crucial times in the season and got knocked out by rain in the other competition because their dreadful start meant they had to win the final group game. At the time I put it down to burnout, to keep that intensity in that many competitions for 2 seasons would have been almost impossible - I guess it's the equivalent of a PL team competing for the treble 2 years running. EVERY single other team were able to prioritise tournaments by the time they get to a certain point in a season (either 2014 or 2015 or in most cases both) and rest key players whilst giving youngsters a chance.  I found out recently that it looks like this was only partly the case and there was quite a lot of dressing room unrest.  Reading between the lines, it seems Chopra would have been gone as captain even if Bell hadn't been dropped by England.  There's a decent possibility that whatever the problem was hasn't gone away and may re-appear at some point during the season.

c) Going on from the last point, burnout is a real possibility for what is no longer a young squad. I saw this article earlier - http://www.skysports.com/cricket/news/12140/10216791/county-cricket-2016-sky-sports-pundits-make-their-predictions. 3 "experts" who all predict Warwickshire to win a trophy this year, the problem being they all predict a different one!  A good problem to have as a team but not so good if you want to bet on them in 1 competition

There was actually a 4th problem that got solved this morning....  that being the amount we relied on Tim Ambrose - he's been doing double overtime for years now.  It's been a long time since we had a decent backup, and McKay who we'd been trying for a few years was let go over the winter, leaving us with some guy we picked up from the minor counties. Thankfully today they announced Luke Ronchi has signed for the entire 20/20 campaign - it's definitely the area we'll miss Ambrose least, so he can rest up during those games and should be fresh enough for the rest of the season  

Yorkshire can't possibly be value at 6/4 when we are looking at the strongest division 1 ever seen, and I've got absolutely no interest in backing Durham or Lancashire at their odds.  Those 3 teams are the ones I expect to suffer the most with the new toss rule, as historically they've had more bowling friendly conditions at the start of games.  Notts were so strong at the end of last year, maybe they take that momentum with them?  Problem is, they are always one of the top 4 favourites and are always out of contention by half way through the season - they are the same price as Warwickshire and I'd want more than that for a team who've never shown consistency throughout a whole season.  I do make them 3rd favourites though.  Middlesex are on of the teams I was referring to earlier - they finished 2nd last season but effectively only played 1 competition, they were so woeful in other formats that they could write them off at a very early stage and just concentrate on the CC.  That won't be the case this year and judging from their signings it looks like they will take limited overs cricket a lot more seriously.  Justifiably 4th favourites and too short to consider backing.  Surrey are the team I know least about, although having read up on them a bit I have no idea how they can be almost the same price as Warwickshire!  Hampshire are 20/1 outsiders and such is the competitiveness of this division, I wouldn't want to be laying any bigger than that - problem is they are so much stronger at limited overs cricket and with such an old team that seems to lack depth, there is no way they can compete on all 3 fronts and I can't back them at that price either.

So, Warwickshire do seem nice value to me.  I was thinking 2 or 3 weeks ago about posting the bet here at 13/2 but decided against it purely on the basis I actually think the 12/1 on us winning the 1 day cup is better value.  I didn't want to post 2 bets on the 1 team I support, especially when I tipped us last season as well!  Thankfully Tighty suggested the County Championship bet (http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-1/county-championship-division-1/winner) so I can agree with that, whilst myself recommending the 12/1 on us winning the One Day Cup (http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/royal-london-one-day-cup/winner).  Before last year we had a 1st, 2nd and 2nd over a 4 year period in this competition.  If Bell gets called up for England I think the 12/1 is a very fair price, if he doesn't the 12/1 is a great price.

What a wonderful write up, thank you.

Tighty does the sorting out, & he, like you, knows his cricket, but I hope we get on, a few cricket bets for the season would be rather fun I think, & we have done well in them in previous years as I recall.

[tikay]

Coral have some interesting season-long cricket markets priced up. They have batsman groups of 6 and bowler groups of 4 for each county.

Couple of prices stand out in the bowling groups (wickets taken) :

Hogan at 5/4 against Wagg, Meschede and Salter
Magoffin at 5/4 against Shahzad, Robinson and Briggs

Hogan last season took 48 wickets in 14 games (missed 2 on paternity leave). That's a pretty average return but still beat Wagg (45 in 16), Meschede (40 in 16 games) and Salter (25 in 12). Hogan has spent the winter playing for his Australian state side (W.A) and is 4th top wicket taker in Sheffield shield cricket (37 in 9 games), so he comes into the season in good form. Wagg's been around for years, he isn't likely to suddenly improve. Meschede is a decent cricketer, but more an all-rounder and useful in limited overs. Salter is a young spinner who averages less than 2 wickets a game, he's unlikely to challenge.

Magoffin is favourite to be the top wicket taker in the league. He took 69 wickets in Div 1 last year, and should be just as prolific in Div 2 this year. Briggs only played 8 county championship games last year and may get more cricket this year after his move to Sussex from Hampshire , but he only managed 19 wickets and Magoffin should be clear of him by mid-summer. Robinson got 46 in 11 games, but has had disciplinary issues in the past and isn't guaranteed of a spot in the side. Shahzad took 22 in 5 games, but is injury prone hence why he only played 5 games. Magoffin is knocking on a bit (36 years old now) but has just signed a new 2-year deal so must feel he has plenty of cricket left in him.

I would say only injuries would stop these from copping, but both of my picks aren't spring chickens. Magoffin didn't play any List "A" cricket last year, and it may be that these 2 are saved for red-ball cricket this year, which would be an advantage.

is it worth the risk tying up the money for 5 months at 4/1 the double?

A double, you say?........

Seriously, if we are talking £10 or £20 or somesuch, I'd not be exercised by tying that up for 5 months, if we get a good summer long sweat, it cant be bad, can it?

I'll leave it to Tighty to comment & sort, but that's my take. 

[tikay]

I think we should have a couple more in the National. 

O'Faolain's Boy ran well for a long time in the Gold Cup and has won an RSA.  I think he should be a bit shorter than 33/1 and victor are paying 6 places.  He has never gone so far, but hopefully he is going to stay.  Think 6 places makes up for it.  Suggest 25 e/w with victor

The other is Kruzhlinin.  He has already run in the race, so definitely stayed, albeit slowly.  I think he is now a better horse with a better trainer.  He has a decent jockey too.  Corals are going 33/1 5 places amongst others.  Suggest 25 e/w.

And Nina is getting backed on Betfair, so our bet on Sir Des Champs isn't going to be so bad as it looked last night. 

Morning Doobs,

Tighty appears to be AWOL, he's very busy elsewhere I think, so I thought I'd try & get these 2 on.

However, the first one - O'Faolin's Boy appears to be a NR, unless I've lost the plot?

I'll start clicking Corals now, & see if I can sort Kruzhlinin.

[Doobs]

OFB has just been w/d.

Timing very good this year.