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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16606596 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #118305 on: June 10, 2016, 09:47:22 AM »

Hi guys,

Been extremely busy this week, haven't had a proper chance to go through the markets, but a cursory look pulls out two bets for the Canadian GP:

Perez and Hulkenberg podiumvate at 14/1+, suggest £5 on each.

Will do a proper post later today.

Perez did the drivers press conference yesterday and said, i paraphrase, Monaco was very good but a podium is not possible here.

14/1 i know, but didn't sound too positiive
« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 09:49:16 AM by TightEnd » Logged

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« Reply #118306 on: June 10, 2016, 09:48:48 AM »

Go on then, I'll put one up before it gets started tomorrow.

Sweden to qualify @ 4/5.

They are in Group E with Belgium, Italy and Ireland. I think we are potentially through with a win against Ireland, but look good enough to get more than 3 points against the other two.

4/5 with Sky, would take 7/10 elsewhere.



we can't do sky, sorry

7/10 doesn't feel like particular value does it?

three probably through out of the group, you would hope, but an even looking group
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« Reply #118307 on: June 10, 2016, 09:52:07 AM »

Uruguay crashed out of the copa America last night

complete with a Suarez strop

 Click to see full-size image.


will be taking that bet as a loser disappointingly early

« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 10:46:58 AM by TightEnd » Logged

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« Reply #118308 on: June 10, 2016, 09:53:04 AM »

T20 blast tonight. The Nottinghamshire openers Lumb and Wessels have put on partenrships of 100 (T20 blast), 342 (RL cup) and 178 (RL cup) in the last week, so they're in a bit of nick  Tongue Pitches have been an absolute road at Trent bridge, 369 runs in the T20 game and tallies of 870 and 794 in the 2 50-over games.

Billyhill have the opening partnership line at 20.5. I'd have been happy with high-20's tbf. recc £30 at 5/6.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/natwest-t20-blast/nottinghamshire-v-derbyshire/nottinghamshire-opening-partnership

Over Nottinghamshire v Derbyshire Nottinghamshire Opening Partnership
5/6
Total Stake: £30.00
Potential Returns: £54.90
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« Reply #118309 on: June 10, 2016, 10:50:57 AM »

Hi guys,

Been extremely busy this week, haven't had a proper chance to go through the markets, but a cursory look pulls out two bets for the Canadian GP:

Perez and Hulkenberg podiumvate at 14/1+, suggest £5 on each.

Will do a proper post later today.

Perez did the drivers press conference yesterday and said, i paraphrase, Monaco was very good but a podium is not possible here.

14/1 i know, but didn't sound too positiive

this was the transcript

(yes i know, i am dull)

Q:
Sergio, coming to you, fantastic podium last time out in Monaco. Your sixth in Formula One. You scored one here back in 2012. Is there a sense of optimism that you can continue this strong run?

Sergio Perez:
Well, Monaco was a very special race under certain conditions and to get into the points , everything worked perfectly for us: with the strategy; with all the calls that we did in Monaco. So it was a race under very special conditions. We are expecting something similar here for Sunday but you never know. I really hope we can carry the form, y'know? Probably podiums is not the realistic word for us at the moment but certainly continue the progress and keep scoring points and aim to beat Williams, which is the team ahead of us, which is going to be difficult but I think we are making good progress and we are getting better and better every race.
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« Reply #118310 on: June 10, 2016, 12:13:32 PM »

Hi guys,

Been extremely busy this week, haven't had a proper chance to go through the markets, but a cursory look pulls out two bets for the Canadian GP:

Perez and Hulkenberg podiumvate at 14/1+, suggest £5 on each.

Will do a proper post later today.

Perez did the drivers press conference yesterday and said, i paraphrase, Monaco was very good but a podium is not possible here.

14/1 i know, but didn't sound too positiive

this was the transcript

(yes i know, i am dull)

Q:
Sergio, coming to you, fantastic podium last time out in Monaco. Your sixth in Formula One. You scored one here back in 2012. Is there a sense of optimism that you can continue this strong run?

Sergio Perez:
Well, Monaco was a very special race under certain conditions and to get into the points , everything worked perfectly for us: with the strategy; with all the calls that we did in Monaco. So it was a race under very special conditions. We are expecting something similar here for Sunday but you never know. I really hope we can carry the form, y'know? Probably podiums is not the realistic word for us at the moment but certainly continue the progress and keep scoring points and aim to beat Williams, which is the team ahead of us, which is going to be difficult but I think we are making good progress and we are getting better and better every race.


You're dull? I watch the press conferences a minimum of twice per weekend ..

14/1 still represents value in my eyes. Especially given the number of accidents historically caused at T1/T2 in Canada, coupled with the intensity between Lewis and Nico up front.

The reality is the team don't know where they will be this weekend.

Following the major upgrade in Spain, the team haven't had a good opportunity to assess the car:

- Spain was unrepresentative because the team will have still been finding the optimal set-up with the new parts.
- Monaco was unrepresentative because it's such a unique, low speed circuit.

Even this track will not really show the full potential of the car over the course of the season because it's unique - and essentially the opposite of Monaco, set-up wise at least. They won't really have any idea until Austria.

I feel like I've gone off-topic a little here. However, the pace going in to this weekend is unknown in all honesty. 14/1 is a very good price in my eyes.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 12:19:30 PM by Peter-27 » Logged

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« Reply #118311 on: June 10, 2016, 12:14:36 PM »

I assume there's a top goalscorer after the group stages market ? What price would you want to go in on Gareth Bale ? Rest of the team all seem to love him in comparison to the other biggest star of the Euro's at Portugal who I assume will be favourite, he will take all the set pieces and will be giving it 100% all out when it's such a big thing for Wales to have got there. Predicted to be the highest scoring group and we've all seen recently how well England can defend.

Thoughts ?
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« Reply #118312 on: June 10, 2016, 12:25:28 PM »

podiumfying

Sergio Perez (Ind) Canadian Grand Prix Podium Finish
14/1
Total Stake: £5.00
Potential Returns: £75.00

Nico Hulkenberg (Ind) Canadian Grand Prix Podium Finish
14/1
Total Stake: £5.00
Potential Returns: £75.00
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« Reply #118313 on: June 10, 2016, 12:27:10 PM »

I assume there's a top goalscorer after the group stages market ?

i don't think there is, unless anyone wants to tell me otherwise?
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« Reply #118314 on: June 10, 2016, 12:36:40 PM »

I assume there's a top goalscorer after the group stages market ? What price would you want to go in on Gareth Bale ? Rest of the team all seem to love him in comparison to the other biggest star of the Euro's at Portugal who I assume will be favourite, he will take all the set pieces and will be giving it 100% all out when it's such a big thing for Wales to have got there. Predicted to be the highest scoring group and we've all seen recently how well England can defend.

Thoughts ?

Predicted to be the highest scoring group.  Yes.  Wales are not predicted to score many of these goals in this group.  That is the only problem.
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« Reply #118315 on: June 10, 2016, 12:39:48 PM »

I assume there's a top goalscorer after the group stages market ? What price would you want to go in on Gareth Bale ? Rest of the team all seem to love him in comparison to the other biggest star of the Euro's at Portugal who I assume will be favourite, he will take all the set pieces and will be giving it 100% all out when it's such a big thing for Wales to have got there. Predicted to be the highest scoring group and we've all seen recently how well England can defend.

Thoughts ?

Predicted to be the highest scoring group.  Yes.  Wales are not predicted to score many of these goals in this group.  That is the only problem.

Is there no such market ? How would you price it up ? I think it's the most open group of the six and wouldn't be that surprised to see any of the four teams finish 1st-4th.
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« Reply #118316 on: June 10, 2016, 12:40:15 PM »

Odds checker has group b as predicted fourth highest scoring group
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« Reply #118317 on: June 10, 2016, 12:43:08 PM »

I assume there's a top goalscorer after the group stages market ? What price would you want to go in on Gareth Bale ? Rest of the team all seem to love him in comparison to the other biggest star of the Euro's at Portugal who I assume will be favourite, he will take all the set pieces and will be giving it 100% all out when it's such a big thing for Wales to have got there. Predicted to be the highest scoring group and we've all seen recently how well England can defend.

Thoughts ?

Predicted to be the highest scoring group.  Yes.  Wales are not predicted to score many of these goals in this group.  That is the only problem.

Is there no such market ? How would you price it up ? I think it's the most open group of the six and wouldn't be that surprised to see any of the four teams finish 1st-4th.

I very much doubt there is a market for group stage top scorer.  I just assumed you had checked the odds and the group was predicted to be the highest scoring.  That's why i said yes to that.  Exstream is correct.  From looking at Sporting index's quotes for the highest scoring group the England group is joint 4th favs out of 6 to be the highest scoring group.   Germany's group

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/international-euro-2016-long-term/group_a.68d058f9-a268-4c0c-a435-09f8770b505c/euro-2016-highest-scoring-group

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/highest-scoring-group

England/Wales group B fwiw.  Your statement about it being the most open group is probably correct the problem with that is that it makes goals in that group less likely than any other group because games involving teams of closer ability produce less goals for obvious reasons.

Bale is 50/1 to be top scorer in the event as a whole so you would imagine he would only be a 20/1 ish chance to top score in the group stages as most of his goals would always come this early however if he does top score at the group stages Wales will probably have won the group and go deep.  Not easy to price up tbh. 
« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 12:54:46 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #118318 on: June 10, 2016, 12:49:01 PM »

Anyone like Nolito for top Spanish Gs at 7/1? He seems to have cemented his place on the left of the front three after some excellent performances in the friendlies. Spain likely to end up in the softer side of the draw too.

Another bet I like is no Switzerland scorer at 33/1. Albania and Romania both set up very defensively and play on the counter attack. They play France in the last group game & that might be the worry if the hosts rest some players of the group is won.
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« Reply #118319 on: June 10, 2016, 12:56:05 PM »

I assume there's a top goalscorer after the group stages market ? What price would you want to go in on Gareth Bale ? Rest of the team all seem to love him in comparison to the other biggest star of the Euro's at Portugal who I assume will be favourite, he will take all the set pieces and will be giving it 100% all out when it's such a big thing for Wales to have got there. Predicted to be the highest scoring group and we've all seen recently how well England can defend.

Thoughts ?

Predicted to be the highest scoring group.  Yes.  Wales are not predicted to score many of these goals in this group.  That is the only problem.

Is there no such market ? How would you price it up ? I think it's the most open group of the six and wouldn't be that surprised to see any of the four teams finish 1st-4th.

I very much doubt there is a market for group stage top scorer.  I just assumed you had checked the odds and the group was predicted to be the highest scoring.  That's why i said yes to that.  Exstream is correct.  From looking at Sporting index's quotes for the highest scoring group the England group is joint 4th favs out of 6 to be the highest scoring group.   Germany's group

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/international-euro-2016-long-term/group_a.68d058f9-a268-4c0c-a435-09f8770b505c/euro-2016-highest-scoring-group

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/highest-scoring-group

England/Wales group B fwiw.  Your statement about it being the most open group is probably correct the problem with that is that it makes goals in that group less likely than any other group because games involving teams of closer ability produce less goals for obvious reasons.

Bale is 50/1 to be top scorer in the event as a whole so you would imagine he would only be a 20/1 ish chance to top score in the group stages as most of his goals would always come this early however if he does top score at the group stages Wales will probably have won the group and go deep.  Not easy to price up tbh. 

Decent question at least even if I was partly talking shite Tongue

I'd be all over 20/1.
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