Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

What happens if you've backed Djokivic in straight sets and his opponent has been forced to quit?

Void bet.

Is our bet void, too, hector?

It is indeed. Another waste of your time.

Can't be helped, & getting our money back always feels like a win to me.

[Doobs]

Limato is 3/1 in the haydock sprint cup for those with betfred/tote/365.  Beats bf. 

[Tal]

Limato is 3/1 in the haydock sprint cup for those with betfred/tote/365.  Beats bf. 

Is that an indication it won't run?

Doesn't change whether we back it, but just asking from a racing perspective.

[TightEnd]

nasty weather is on the way.

how soft would it have to get for gordon lord byron to be in with a squeak at 33s?

is there anty draw bias to worry about at haydock?

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/haydock/16:30/winner

[horseplayer]

good old the gordon

haddock could be a swamp by racetime you never know with kirkland though

Limato must be odds against to run Candy taken him out plenty of times before..

As a complete flyer i like Goken in the sprint cup with the mythical 80s with stan... (best ever run in this country only time seen soft at ascot, may have been flattered by spencer riding ascot like a dream ala yesterday but not had it since and won on it in France)

 cant get involved with the likely heavy rule 4 and crappy place terms though

good luck all

[tikay]

nasty weather is on the way.

how soft would it have to get for gordon lord byron to be in with a squeak at 33s?

is there anty draw bias to worry about at haydock?

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/haydock/16:30/winner

If I'm not mistaken, very happy memories of that one, when you & I were up in Newcastle working? Seem to recall we had a lumpy price too.

[Doobs]

nasty weather is on the way.

how soft would it have to get for gordon lord byron to be in with a squeak at 33s?

is there anty draw bias to worry about at haydock?

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/haydock/16:30/winner

Weather forecast looks dreadful.  Hadn't checked today.  Probably best to ignore.  Best look at Ascot.  Few 16 runner handicaps about, though I would avoid Haydock.

[horseplayer]

nasty weather is on the way.

how soft would it have to get for gordon lord byron to be in with a squeak at 33s?

is there anty draw bias to worry about at haydock?

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/haydock/16:30/winner

If I'm not mistaken, very happy memories of that one, when you & I were up in Newcastle working? Seem to recall we had a lumpy price too.

the good old days scorching up the far side



Johnny Murtagh on board

[Dekka]

nasty weather is on the way.

how soft would it have to get for gordon lord byron to be in with a squeak at 33s?

is there anty draw bias to worry about at haydock?

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/haydock/16:30/winner

Probably irrelevant because it's hosing down and I can't see 16 staying in the race but I was just reading the Timeform trends preview by Simon Rowlands earlier.  He had this to say about the draw:

"The effect of the draw may seem irrelevant at this distance, but the evidence is that horses drawn in the centre have fared better than those on the flanks, with the 14f start little more than a furlong before the left-handed turn into the back straight. That is precious little ground in which to get a good position in a large field."

Full article here: https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/rowley/rowleyfile-preview-old-borough-handicap-2016-192016

EDIT:  Ignore me, we're talking about different races!   I was distracted by trying to find a likely non-runner that's best priced with Ladbrokes so Tikay could enjoy the "winning feeling" of getting his money back again

[TightEnd]

Peter, the upgraded/updated Ferrari engine in the Haas has improved their pace a lot, possibly to around force india who are 4th or so in the pecking order

Haas should be around the top 10 in qualifying, close to points etc and generally more competitive

is this in prices?

[Peter-27]

Peter, the upgraded/updated Ferrari engine in the Haas has improved their pace a lot, possibly to around force india who are 4th or so in the pecking order

Haas should be around the top 10 in qualifying, close to points etc and generally more competitive

is this in prices?

I'm not convinced the improved pace is engine related, more due to the characteristics of this unique track - but nevertheless, it does appear that Ferrari & Haas are quicker this weekend. The pecking order has changed dramatically overnight due to the grip level changing; Force India are now the 5th quickest team this weekend.

Grosjean is 5/4 for points, Gutierrez 6/4. I don't feel comfortable at those prices given that the top ten should be locked out by the top five teams fairly comfortably. Qualifying is a different story with greater variance over one lap - but there is no "to reach Q3" market that I can see.

Couple of bets to recommend though:

Top Six Finish - Valtteri Bottas @ EVS & Felipe Massa @ 2/1. Both with 366/Viktors. Suggest £20 Valtteri, £25 Felipe. Williams are the third quickest team this weekend - and have strong race pace also.

[Doobs]

Peter, the upgraded/updated Ferrari engine in the Haas has improved their pace a lot, possibly to around force india who are 4th or so in the pecking order

Haas should be around the top 10 in qualifying, close to points etc and generally more competitive

is this in prices?

I'm not convinced the improved pace is engine related, more due to the characteristics of this unique track - but nevertheless, it does appear that Ferrari & Haas are quicker this weekend. The pecking order has changed dramatically overnight due to the grip level changing; Force India are now the 5th quickest team this weekend.

Grosjean is 5/4 for points, Gutierrez 6/4. I don't feel comfortable at those prices given that the top ten should be locked out by the top five teams fairly comfortably. Qualifying is a different story with greater variance over one lap - but there is no "to reach Q3" market that I can see.

Couple of bets to recommend though:

Top Six Finish - Valtteri Bottas @ EVS & Felipe Massa @ 2/1. Both with 366/Viktors. Suggest £20 Valtteri, £25 Felipe. Williams are the third quickest team this weekend - and have strong race pace also.

Did Red Bull run the supersofts in final practice?

Agree on Haas.  Doesn't look a lot of value there. 

[TightEnd]

the aim for the quick guys is to do Q2 on softs, start on them and minimise risk of the early pit stop because the supersofts only last a lap?

so run soft-medium and one stop?

[TightEnd]

Valtteri Bottas
Italian Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
1/1
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £40.00

Felipe Massa
Italian Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
2/1
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £75.00

[Peter-27]

Peter, the upgraded/updated Ferrari engine in the Haas has improved their pace a lot, possibly to around force india who are 4th or so in the pecking order

Haas should be around the top 10 in qualifying, close to points etc and generally more competitive

is this in prices?

I'm not convinced the improved pace is engine related, more due to the characteristics of this unique track - but nevertheless, it does appear that Ferrari & Haas are quicker this weekend. The pecking order has changed dramatically overnight due to the grip level changing; Force India are now the 5th quickest team this weekend.

Grosjean is 5/4 for points, Gutierrez 6/4. I don't feel comfortable at those prices given that the top ten should be locked out by the top five teams fairly comfortably. Qualifying is a different story with greater variance over one lap - but there is no "to reach Q3" market that I can see.

Couple of bets to recommend though:

Top Six Finish - Valtteri Bottas @ EVS & Felipe Massa @ 2/1. Both with 366/Viktors. Suggest £20 Valtteri, £25 Felipe. Williams are the third quickest team this weekend - and have strong race pace also.

Did Red Bull run the supersofts in final practice?

Agree on Haas.  Doesn't look a lot of value there. 

Everyone ran supersofts in final practice. Red Bull did it earlier in the session than most others, but I don't believe that would quite account for the 0.209 second delta (Ricciardo-to-Bottas). Plus Williams look much more comfortable in race trim anyway.