Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

- Nico Hulkenberg Singapore Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
£15.00 @ 3.23
Total Stake: £15.00
Potential Returns: £48.49

- we already have £25 bottas 13/8 for points. don't think we need to have more at a shorter price given we have a big book for the race, really

Lewis Hamilton Singapore Grand Prix Not To Finish The Race
11/2
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £130.00



- can't do any of the betstars and bwin as you know

[Peter-27]

- we already have £25 bottas 13/8 for points. don't think we need to have more at a shorter price given we have a big book for the race, really

I would challenge this. He's in a much stronger position now that he starts higher than expected (10th), and given who qualified where around him. I think the new price is value, despite being shorter than our previous bet.

Your call of course, happy either way

[Karabiner]

Not looking great in the jolly hockey sticks, USA lost 3-0.

Ouchio.

Yep not a good start. USA outshot Europe 35-14 but a goalie can steal a game and thats just what Jaroslav Halak was able to do for Europe

Click to see full-size image.

Canada up next on Monday

Spoken like a member of the goalie's union

[DMorgan]

Spoken like a member of the goalie's union

Haha they never ask for the card back!

[TightEnd]

Morning Tighty.

Today's superleague sees Leeds away at Huddersfield. Leeds secured their superleague place for next season, but Huddersfield still need to do so. Both teams were disappointing for all the regular season, but this is now a huge game for Huddersfield. If they win then they have a get out of jail free card, and I think that the home advantage and the possible holiday mood for Leeds make Huddersfield the likely winners of a low scorer.

Suggest £20 Huddersfield @ 7/4 with victor or Corals

You don't think the market has spotted that Leeds are safe and Huddersfield need to win?

i have been waiting for an answer for this, seems a reasonable question?

anyway going offline for the race so i have done it rather than not

Huddersfield Huddersfield v Leeds Winner
7/4
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £55.00

[nirvana]

Morning Tighty.

Today's superleague sees Leeds away at Huddersfield. Leeds secured their superleague place for next season, but Huddersfield still need to do so. Both teams were disappointing for all the regular season, but this is now a huge game for Huddersfield. If they win then they have a get out of jail free card, and I think that the home advantage and the possible holiday mood for Leeds make Huddersfield the likely winners of a low scorer.

Suggest £20 Huddersfield @ 7/4 with victor or Corals

You don't think the market has spotted that Leeds are safe and Huddersfield need to win?

i have been waiting for an answer for this, seems a reasonable question?

anyway going offline for the race so i have done it rather than not

Huddersfield Huddersfield v Leeds Winner
7/4
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £55.00

Yah, abso critical that we weigh up whether there's value on this single bet from H62 after placing the last 50 guesses blind

[tikay]

Utter carnage in Singapore before they were even off the grid.

Hulkenburg got tagged and is out, Bottas, Sainz and Alonso (or was it Button?) both suffered damage.

[TheDazzler]

Morning Tighty.

Today's superleague sees Leeds away at Huddersfield. Leeds secured their superleague place for next season, but Huddersfield still need to do so. Both teams were disappointing for all the regular season, but this is now a huge game for Huddersfield. If they win then they have a get out of jail free card, and I think that the home advantage and the possible holiday mood for Leeds make Huddersfield the likely winners of a low scorer.

Suggest £20 Huddersfield @ 7/4 with victor or Corals

You don't think the market has spotted that Leeds are safe and Huddersfield need to win?

i have been waiting for an answer for this, seems a reasonable question?

anyway going offline for the race so i have done it rather than not

Huddersfield Huddersfield v Leeds Winner
7/4
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £55.00

No, it isn't a reasonable question imo.
I'm going to guess Hector's bets are his eye test/evaluation of teams, combined with smaller things like the above.
But I don't know, nor do I care. His record is good enough, over a large enough sample, for him to just say, "Huddersfield, do it", without any further comment. He makes TFT money, he makes many of TFT's readers money.
Sure, Hector could break down his eye test for us in every single bet he recommends. But he shouldn't have to do so, he's proven himself.

The reasonable question is, why does Camel continue on with this campaign of disparaging Hector's bets. I'm genuinely interested in the answer to that.

[Tonibell]

His record is good enough, over a large enough sample...[my italics]

Are you sure of that? You have to have a hell of a lot of bets at short odds to be sure you're outperforming a random walk. [*hopes Doobs or another of Fred's mathematicians comes in to the thread with the formula for this rather than my handwaving*]

[TheDazzler]

His record is good enough, over a large enough sample...[my italics]

Are you sure of that? You have to have a hell of a lot of bets at short odds to be sure you're outperforming a random walk. [*hopes Doobs or another of Fred's mathematicians comes in to the thread with the formula for this rather than my handwaving*]

No, I'm not sure of that. As far as I can see, Hector puts up mostly rugby + tennis bets and he puts up the outsider of the two for the most part. He sees matchups where the bookies fave should actually be the outsider. He's profitable over a large sample. If the sample is large enough, I don't know. I would love to see one of the maths guys come up with a formula for what % we can be confident of Hector's results.
If that is Camel's point, that Hector is simply running hot, then okay just say so. Then it can be looked at.

[Karabiner]

His record is good enough, over a large enough sample...[my italics]

Are you sure of that? You have to have a hell of a lot of bets at short odds to be sure you're outperforming a random walk. [*hopes Doobs or another of Fred's mathematicians comes in to the thread with the formula for this rather than my handwaving*]

No, I'm not sure of that. As far as I can see, Hector puts up mostly rugby + tennis bets and he puts up the outsider of the two for the most part. He sees matchups where the bookies fave should actually be the outsider. He's profitable over a large sample. If the sample is large enough, I don't know. I would love to see one of the maths guys come up with a formula for what % we can be confident of Hector's results.
If that is Camel's point, that Hector is simply running hot, then okay just say so. Then it can be looked at.

I don't think he's disparaging the bet Tom, just asking what the rationale is.

[booder]

Stoke relegation/Hughes first manager to leave markets look interesting ?  (4/1 , 7/5 )

They look terrible this season.

If only we had a Stoke fan who could advise us.

[TheDazzler]

His record is good enough, over a large enough sample...[my italics]

Are you sure of that? You have to have a hell of a lot of bets at short odds to be sure you're outperforming a random walk. [*hopes Doobs or another of Fred's mathematicians comes in to the thread with the formula for this rather than my handwaving*]

No, I'm not sure of that. As far as I can see, Hector puts up mostly rugby + tennis bets and he puts up the outsider of the two for the most part. He sees matchups where the bookies fave should actually be the outsider. He's profitable over a large sample. If the sample is large enough, I don't know. I would love to see one of the maths guys come up with a formula for what % we can be confident of Hector's results.
If that is Camel's point, that Hector is simply running hot, then okay just say so. Then it can be looked at.

I don't think he's disparaging the bet Tom, just asking what the rationale is.

I think he is Ralph.
When the last little argument broke out (when Camel asked if Hector was basing a tennis bet on H2H stats) I pm'ed Camel basically what I've written here, asking what the purpose of these comments were. He didn't reply.
It's completely disingenous imo. Of course he knows Hector isn't only using H2H stats. Clearly he's using his eye test too and like in his rugby bets, his evaluation of how styles/players match up etc.
If Camel wants a break down on how all these styles/player matchups etc. play out, Hector will have to write an essay every time he recommends a bet. We don't ask this of others, so what gives?

If Camel thinks he's running hot and he can't evaluate matches better than the traders, please say so. 
 

[tikay]

Stoke relegation/Hughes first manager to leave markets look interesting ?  (4/1 , 7/5 )

They look terrible this season.

If only we had a Stoke fan who could advise us.

Fred has a ticket with 7/2 Stoke to be relegated written on it. Looking good right now. Poor old Sparky, hard to see why the wheels have come off so quickly.

Surely it can't be lolzzStoke replacing Lollapool can it?

Argue will be along with a view on that at some stage. He may have an opinion. Think it'd be rather fun to see him return & venting his spleen. Gently, like.   

Think everyone will be delighted to see Team Pardew doing better, obv.   

[Peter-27]

His record is good enough, over a large enough sample, for him to just say, "Huddersfield, do it", without any further comment.

Out of interest, in your opinion, at what stage does this happen? What is a large sample size exactly?