Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

Absolute car crash of a weekend for the F1 betting wise, mainly caused by the start incident.

Things not going well for me at all of late

[tikay]

Absolute car crash of a weekend for the F1 betting wise, mainly caused by the start incident.

Things not going well for me at all of late

Don't worry about today Peter, these things happen. Sample size and all that.

No complaints here, none at all, we'll win the war, a few lost battles along the way is no big deal to Fred.

[Doobs]

His record is good enough, over a large enough sample...[my italics]

Are you sure of that? You have to have a hell of a lot of bets at short odds to be sure you're outperforming a random walk. [*hopes Doobs or another of Fred's mathematicians comes in to the thread with the formula for this rather than my handwaving*]

No, I'm not sure of that. As far as I can see, Hector puts up mostly rugby + tennis bets and he puts up the outsider of the two for the most part. He sees matchups where the bookies fave should actually be the outsider. He's profitable over a large sample. If the sample is large enough, I don't know. I would love to see one of the maths guys come up with a formula for what % we can be confident of Hector's results.
If that is Camel's point, that Hector is simply running hot, then okay just say so. Then it can be looked at.

I don't think he's disparaging the bet Tom, just asking what the rationale is.

I think he is Ralph.
When the last little argument broke out (when Camel asked if Hector was basing a tennis bet on H2H stats) I pm'ed Camel basically what I've written here, asking what the purpose of these comments were. He didn't reply.
It's completely disingenous imo. Of course he knows Hector isn't only using H2H stats. Clearly he's using his eye test too and like in his rugby bets, his evaluation of how styles/players match up etc.
If Camel wants a break down on how all these styles/player matchups etc. play out, Hector will have to write an essay every time he recommends a bet. We don't ask this of others, so what gives?

If Camel thinks he's running hot and he can't evaluate matches better than the traders, please say so. 
 

Speaking for the maths guys.  I can't even be sure how much he wins as it isn't published.  Working out the significance is obviously impossible in the circumstances.

All bets on here can be questioned, includung mine.  Far better that than the aftertiming, sneering we get sometimes.

[doubleup]

His record is good enough, over a large enough sample, for him to just say, "Huddersfield, do it", without any further comment.

Out of interest, in your opinion, at what stage does this happen? What is a large sample size exactly?

http://web.archive.org/web/20041009202829/http://www.0dd5.com/matharchie.shtml


as an aside - is it reasonable for Hector to keep some secrets and post some of his reasons for his picks but not all of them? (I don't know if he does this.)

[Doobs]

Stoke relegation/Hughes first manager to leave markets look interesting ?  (4/1 , 7/5 )

They look terrible this season.

If only we had a Stoke fan who could advise us.

Fred has a ticket with 7/2 Stoke to be relegated written on it. Looking good right now. Poor old Sparky, hard to see why the wheels have come off so quickly.

Surely it can't be lolzzStoke replacing Lollapool can it?

Argue will be along with a view on that at some stage. He may have an opinion. Think it'd be rather fun to see him return & venting his spleen. Gently, like.   

Think everyone will be delighted to see Team Pardew doing better, obv.   

This is a sample size of 5?  Dovetailing like a boss.

[McGlashan]

Del Potro is out of the Davis Cup deciding tie and Dan Evans starts odds on over Leo Mayer.

[Rubbish2407]

I'm pretty sure Hector played Rugby professionaly or at the very least first class. That said, I don't see why someone who doesn't contribute to this thread (I include myself in this) should question people who do contribute.

[tikay]

Stoke relegation/Hughes first manager to leave markets look interesting ?  (4/1 , 7/5 )

They look terrible this season.

If only we had a Stoke fan who could advise us.

Fred has a ticket with 7/2 Stoke to be relegated written on it. Looking good right now. Poor old Sparky, hard to see why the wheels have come off so quickly.

Surely it can't be lolzzStoke replacing Lollapool can it?

Argue will be along with a view on that at some stage. He may have an opinion. Think it'd be rather fun to see him return & venting his spleen. Gently, like.   

Think everyone will be delighted to see Team Pardew doing better, obv.   

This is a sample size of 5?  Dovetailing like a boss.

All part of a campaign to get Pulis back to Stoke.

At 4-0, not sure if Palace are playing great, or Stoke are really lol.

[Marky147]

Stoke relegation/Hughes first manager to leave markets look interesting ?  (4/1 , 7/5 )

They look terrible this season.

If only we had a Stoke fan who could advise us.

Fred has a ticket with 7/2 Stoke to be relegated written on it. Looking good right now. Poor old Sparky, hard to see why the wheels have come off so quickly.

Surely it can't be lolzzStoke replacing Lollapool can it?

Argue will be along with a view on that at some stage. He may have an opinion. Think it'd be rather fun to see him return & venting his spleen. Gently, like.   

Think everyone will be delighted to see Team Pardew doing better, obv.   

This is a sample size of 5?  Dovetailing like a boss.

All part of a campaign to get Pulis back to Stoke.

At 4-0, not sure if Palace are playing great, or Stoke are really lol.

Pardiola knows, obv.

I'm sure Pads will be in tell us how well he set them up today, too

[Doobs]

Stoke relegation/Hughes first manager to leave markets look interesting ?  (4/1 , 7/5 )

They look terrible this season.

If only we had a Stoke fan who could advise us.

Fred has a ticket with 7/2 Stoke to be relegated written on it. Looking good right now. Poor old Sparky, hard to see why the wheels have come off so quickly.

Surely it can't be lolzzStoke replacing Lollapool can it?

Argue will be along with a view on that at some stage. He may have an opinion. Think it'd be rather fun to see him return & venting his spleen. Gently, like.   

Think everyone will be delighted to see Team Pardew doing better, obv.   

This is a sample size of 5?  Dovetailing like a boss.

All part of a campaign to get Pulis back to Stoke.

At 4-0, not sure if Palace are playing great, or Stoke are really lol.

Pardiola knows, obv.

I'm sure Pads will be in tell us how well he set them up today, too

Think we have a big enough sample size to know Pardiola is the GOAT though.  So looking forward to the impending battles between the two greatest managers later in the season.

[Tal]

Absolute car crash of a weekend for the F1 betting wise, mainly caused by the start incident.

Things not going well for me at all of late

I don't want to be the metaphor police, here, but come on!

[TheDazzler]

I'm pretty sure Hector played Rugby professionaly or at the very least first class. That said, I don't see why someone who doesn't contribute to this thread (I include myself in this) should question people who do contribute.

I remember hearing that too but I don't know.
I would have more confidence in his rugby bets than his tennis bets but I follow all Hectors bet blind as I don't have any knowledge of either and the results seem to stand up.
I think it's fine for someone to question Hectors results or thought process without putting up stuff himself (after all we have Camel to thank for starting this thread and for that I'm eternally grateful to him) but Camel isn't really doing that. He's continually asking if Hector is basing his bets on simple stats. He must know Hector isn't. If the question is, is Hector just running hot, then why wasn't that the first question Camel asked? That's a fair question that causes no offence. This disingenous way of constantly sniping is clearly annoying to many posters, so why do it this way?
Just state the issue Camel. We all know you're a very smart man and miss your input here so this is all meant with the greatest of respect.

[DungBeetle]

What on earth has happened to Stoke?  They look stronger on paper this year after being a solid midtable operator last year.  I imagine they will turn a corner soon but got to be a point when potters fans worry that it isn't just a blip.

[tikay]

Meanwhile, back at the coal face, Huddersfield lead 20-10 with 4 minutes remaining.

And if that does not bok us, nothing will.

[horseplayer]

What on earth has happened to Stoke?  They look stronger on paper this year after being a solid midtable operator last year.  I imagine they will turn a corner soon but got to be a point when potters fans worry that it isn't just a blip.

Starting shay given who moves as quick as I do at present can't help