Tips for Tikay

[pleno1]

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kenny hallert, big bet.

[BigAdz]

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kenny hallert, big bet.

Will follow you in, but any particular reason?

Has he been cleaning up since qualifying, getting coaching from the right people, bought up all the lucky beads from Downtown?

Cheers.

[pleno1]

he won the party 4000+ runner 109$ gran priz for $60k last week.

[craigbetts]

Okay let's have a go at a bet suggestion. This would be my second bet for thread so I know it's at the discretion of the elders and open to opinion.

Leeds v Leigh in the last round of the qualifiers is tonight. Essentially it is a dead rubber as both teams have super league status next year. So I was surprised by the match betting. Leeds generally 2/7, Leigh 100/30 in a place or two, with 11/4 widely available. Who would like to win this match more? IMO Leigh would be motivated to maintain a 100% play off record, plus Leeds have a number of injuries, Burrow, McGuire are the heartbeat and two big men in Aitchurch and Ablett are both out. Leigh have players back and should win the front row metres in the middle of the park.

One additional factor is a number of Leeds players have attended a memorial service this morning. Not always the best prep and one which takes a lot out of the club. I know McDermott will tell his players to win in honour of Harry but history shows emotion can often get the better of teams, certainly ones with a few youngsters in. They may not have that affinity anyway. All in, I think the 100/30 is a cracking price on Leigh. I see it much closer and would expect Fred's rugby league expert to have an opinion to. Suggest £15 win at anything bigger than 11/4.

[Doobs]

But he has $1.3m in total earnings already.  

Gordon Vayo won $600,000 the other week and has more chips.  So those two prices don't look out of line with each other

Josephy can obviously play, though looks very short.  Benger is no mug.  

What should the price be on ICM?  I suspect Benger is the best, but he looks likely to be put in an ICM coffin a bit with that stack.

Overall these 4 are a huge chunk of a 100% book.  So unless prices are obviously way out of line I am not sure it is worth spending much time on it.   Even if we say Josephy is too short, he'd have to be massively wrong to make the rest value and he isn't ever above 7/2 if the Vayo/Hallaert prices are right.  And if you sub 7/2 in that table the bookie still has a big overround.

[hector62]

Okay let's have a go at a bet suggestion. This would be my second bet for thread so I know it's at the discretion of the elders and open to opinion.

Leeds v Leigh in the last round of the qualifiers is tonight. Essentially it is a dead rubber as both teams have super league status next year. So I was surprised by the match betting. Leeds generally 2/7, Leigh 100/30 in a place or two, with 11/4 widely available. Who would like to win this match more? IMO Leigh would be motivated to maintain a 100% play off record, plus Leeds have a number of injuries, Burrow, McGuire are the heartbeat and two big men in Aitchurch and Ablett are both out. Leigh have players back and should win the front row metres in the middle of the park.

One additional factor is a number of Leeds players have attended a memorial service this morning. Not always the best prep and one which takes a lot out of the club. I know McDermott will tell his players to win in honour of Harry but history shows emotion can often get the better of teams, certainly ones with a few youngsters in. They may not have that affinity anyway. All in, I think the 100/30 is a cracking price on Leigh. I see it much closer and would expect Fred's rugby league expert to have an opinion to. Suggest £15 win at anything bigger than 11/4.

I like this bet too. Couldn't touch Leeds at that price, and if Leigh are up for it then I think they will win. Their offence is very potent, but I do have reservations about their fitness levels. On one of the Leeds forums I read they have a bit of a coup going with several of them backing Leigh to win by 13+ points at 11-1. I think I prefer the straight win in a game with lots of points.

[TightEnd]

Okay let's have a go at a bet suggestion. This would be my second bet for thread so I know it's at the discretion of the elders and open to opinion.

Leeds v Leigh in the last round of the qualifiers is tonight. Essentially it is a dead rubber as both teams have super league status next year. So I was surprised by the match betting. Leeds generally 2/7, Leigh 100/30 in a place or two, with 11/4 widely available. Who would like to win this match more? IMO Leigh would be motivated to maintain a 100% play off record, plus Leeds have a number of injuries, Burrow, McGuire are the heartbeat and two big men in Aitchurch and Ablett are both out. Leigh have players back and should win the front row metres in the middle of the park.

One additional factor is a number of Leeds players have attended a memorial service this morning. Not always the best prep and one which takes a lot out of the club. I know McDermott will tell his players to win in honour of Harry but history shows emotion can often get the better of teams, certainly ones with a few youngsters in. They may not have that affinity anyway. All in, I think the 100/30 is a cracking price on Leigh. I see it much closer and would expect Fred's rugby league expert to have an opinion to. Suggest £15 win at anything bigger than 11/4.

Leigh Leeds v Leigh Winner
11/4
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £75.00

[Marky147]

But he has $1.3m in total earnings already.  

Gordon Vayo won $600,000 the other week and has more chips.  So those two prices don't look out of line with each other

Josephy can obviously play, though looks very short.  Benger is no mug.  

What should the price be on ICM?  I suspect Benger is the best, but he looks likely to be put in an ICM coffin a bit with that stack.

Overall these 4 are a huge chunk of a 100% book.  So unless prices are obviously way out of line I am not sure it is worth spending much time on it.   Even if we say Josephy is too short, he'd have to be massively wrong to make the rest value and he isn't ever above 7/2 if the Vayo/Hallaert prices are right.  And if you sub 7/2 in that table the bookie still has a big overround.

Fred has £50 on Benger @ 10/1

[Ironside]

did red get on the dons against servco at the weekend if not i would recommend hanging fire on the bet
aberdeen play in the cup tonight rangers played 2 days ago if the dons put out a full team tonight as is expected the team could be a bit jaded before sunday

good news is though as i have now come out infavour of not betting  the bet will come in LMAO

[TightEnd]

did red get on the dons against servco at the weekend if not i would recommend hanging fire on the bet
aberdeen play in the cup tonight rangers played 2 days ago if the dons put out a full team tonight as is expected the team could be a bit jaded before sunday

good news is though as i have now come out infavour of not betting  the bet will come in LMAO

i hadn't yet. missed the recommended price and asked the question what the lowest price to take was....(15/8 at the time)

[Ironside]

did red get on the dons against servco at the weekend if not i would recommend hanging fire on the bet
aberdeen play in the cup tonight rangers played 2 days ago if the dons put out a full team tonight as is expected the team could be a bit jaded before sunday

good news is though as i have now come out infavour of not betting  the bet will come in LMAO

i hadn't yet. missed the recommended price and asked the question what the lowest price to take was....(15/8 at the time)

our most creative player out with a hamstring problem in warm up tonight we have our first team out there i am not sure the price of an aberdeen win but i am going to be watching the game on sunday with my eyes closed and praying

[Peter-27]

Think you have put under where you meant over Peter

Anyway all about opinions

Hahaha .. no.

 

[craigbetts]

Okay let's have a go at a bet suggestion. This would be my second bet for thread so I know it's at the discretion of the elders and open to opinion.

Leeds v Leigh in the last round of the qualifiers is tonight. Essentially it is a dead rubber as both teams have super league status next year. So I was surprised by the match betting. Leeds generally 2/7, Leigh 100/30 in a place or two, with 11/4 widely available. Who would like to win this match more? IMO Leigh would be motivated to maintain a 100% play off record, plus Leeds have a number of injuries, Burrow, McGuire are the heartbeat and two big men in Aitchurch and Ablett are both out. Leigh have players back and should win the front row metres in the middle of the park.

One additional factor is a number of Leeds players have attended a memorial service this morning. Not always the best prep and one which takes a lot out of the club. I know McDermott will tell his players to win in honour of Harry but history shows emotion can often get the better of teams, certainly ones with a few youngsters in. They may not have that affinity anyway. All in, I think the 100/30 is a cracking price on Leigh. I see it much closer and would expect Fred's rugby league expert to have an opinion to. Suggest £15 win at anything bigger than 11/4.

Leigh Leeds v Leigh Winner
11/4
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £75.00

Leeds too good and very much up for it, albeit a weakened team. Leigh were on the plane and not helped by gifting too many penalties. Apologies all.

[PokerBroker]

did red get on the dons against servco at the weekend if not i would recommend hanging fire on the bet
aberdeen play in the cup tonight rangers played 2 days ago if the dons put out a full team tonight as is expected the team could be a bit jaded before sunday

good news is though as i have now come out infavour of not betting  the bet will come in LMAO

i hadn't yet. missed the recommended price and asked the question what the lowest price to take was....(15/8 at the time)

Missed this as been mega busy with work all week.   I'd day 15/8 as marginal.  Probably still a bet but for smaller stakes.  Part of the appeal was the price was just so good ast weekend.

[Tal]

Any inside info on whether Mrs VCM is getting the Bake Off gig?