Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I can't be dissuaded that putting people off backing 20s shots at 16s is exactly what Fred is about.

Agreed.

The proposed bet was on here for 2 hours before it was placed, & not a soul said a word.

[Tal]

How's my 50-1 Johnson to be NFL Offensive POTY looking Tal? Got a whole £5 on this.

He must be doing well. Ezekiel Elliott is a shoe-in for the rookie prize, if he carries on as he is. If he doesn't, it could be his quarterback, Dak Prescott.

Johnson’s main rival is probably New Orleans Saints QB, Drew Brees, who is spraying balls to all parts of the field this season with aplomb. Off the top of my head, I can't think of too many more who are doing as well as those two. It's almost always a "skill" player (rather than an offensive linemen) for these things.

Certainly have a live bet there.


Now...could everyone stop getting shot?

[Tonibell]

I can't be dissuaded that putting people off backing 20s shots at 16s is exactly what Fred is about.

Agreed.

The proposed bet was on here for 2 hours before it was placed, & not a soul said a word.

Timing is everything.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Timing is everything.

Click to see full-size image.

Incred, would you believe I was in that very shop just 4 months ago? Truly.

Very nice chocolate it was too, or so I'm informed by She Who Loves Chocolate.

[TightEnd]

How's my 50-1 Johnson to be NFL Offensive POTY looking Tal? Got a whole £5 on this.

He must be doing well. Ezekiel Elliott is a shoe-in for the rookie prize, if he carries on as he is. If he doesn't, it could be his quarterback, Dak Prescott.

Johnson’s main rival is probably New Orleans Saints QB, Drew Brees, who is spraying balls to all parts of the field this season with aplomb. Off the top of my head, I can't think of too many more who are doing as well as those two. It's almost always a "skill" player (rather than an offensive linemen) for these things.

Certainly have a live bet there.


Now...could everyone stop getting shot?

Matt Ryan, surely, if it carries on as is? (an alternative to Johnson and Brees, i mean)

[tikay]

How's my 50-1 Johnson to be NFL Offensive POTY looking Tal? Got a whole £5 on this.

He must be doing well. Ezekiel Elliott is a shoe-in for the rookie prize, if he carries on as he is. If he doesn't, it could be his quarterback, Dak Prescott.

Johnson’s main rival is probably New Orleans Saints QB, Drew Brees, who is spraying balls to all parts of the field this season with aplomb. Off the top of my head, I can't think of too many more who are doing as well as those two. It's almost always a "skill" player (rather than an offensive linemen) for these things.

Certainly have a live bet there.


Now...could everyone stop getting shot?

Ha, great scene, love that film.

[Marky147]

Frank Harper looking slim there.

[tikay]

Frank Harper looking slim there.

I really enjoy watching him, but he does seem to have piled the weight on a bit.

[BigAdz]

Why is it so hard to make a counter case against someone making a polite, well structured, logic and mathematically sound case against your bet being a long term winning bet?  That is all i have asked but as Camel says it never ever happens.  The thread isn't about backing 50 even money shots that should be 6/4 and winning 30 and everyone thinking you are a hero based off short term variance. I think when you have an 'image' on here as being a 'long term winner' even though the sample size is tiny you have a responsibility to the casual followers even more so to justify your selections in a correct manner as so many people like it or not are results orientated and follow 'winning' tipsters blind 'until they start losing'!  That made me chuckle.

Weetabix has been called out several times for making totally correct arguments and debates about bets and has been shouted down because the bets were from a 'winner' in the same way i was banned for a month for making a post that was tounge in cheek but 100% correct in everything it said about the 'winner'.

How can the fred followers learn from hector's expertise if when challenged occasionally he can't provide a reasonable argument for why the 16/1 in his opinion is the wrong price?  He makes Edmund a decent fav to beat Ferrer tomorrow in order to make Edmund a bet at 16/1 however they will not be a maximum bet put up on Edmund tomorrow when he is decent odds against even though Hector makes him odds on.  This is where the logic falls down and people with an educated opinion ask for an explanation but never get one.  The reality is he knows he has been found out as a guesser on several occasions and has no counter argument.  That is the reality.

lets get this straight. your post about Hector was so breathtakingly rude it made me gasp, and i wasn't alone

none of this tongue in cheek stuff please.

--

my point about counter arguments to bets is simply this. Lets use constructive language, not stuff like "worst bet ever" "shocking bet".

A number of people do it, and its extremely off-putting. If i am put off making any effort on the thread then sure as hell other people are, because i am the person most often trying to promote discussion and currently its the last thing i want to do

Breathtakingly rude?  Are you serious?  I have had at least 20 people contact me asking why on earth i was even banned for it as most of it was correct and true but too close to the bone because the person involved was a 'winner'.

Most of it was regarding direct quotes from the man himself ie turning the NBA or any other 'losing' sport into a winner by taking it under his wing and his lack of knowledge about staking sizes and reading a kelly staking theory book.  Is this what was considered 'breathtakingly rude'?  If not can you PM me what was so rude so i know whose toes i stood on and made so breathtakingly uncomfortable to justify a month's ban?

Arbboy must have the biggest PM box here, always soooo many people PM him after each incident agreeing with him. Not so many publically.......


As for the tiny % of winning guessers....we seem to have a fair few on here(i know by your definition, I am one)....I suppose that must be variance too?

[Tal]

How's my 50-1 Johnson to be NFL Offensive POTY looking Tal? Got a whole £5 on this.

He must be doing well. Ezekiel Elliott is a shoe-in for the rookie prize, if he carries on as he is. If he doesn't, it could be his quarterback, Dak Prescott.

Johnson’s main rival is probably New Orleans Saints QB, Drew Brees, who is spraying balls to all parts of the field this season with aplomb. Off the top of my head, I can't think of too many more who are doing as well as those two. It's almost always a "skill" player (rather than an offensive linemen) for these things.

Certainly have a live bet there.


Now...could everyone stop getting shot?

Matt Ryan, surely, if it carries on as is? (an alternative to Johnson and Brees, i mean)

Whoops!

Yes. Absolutely.

[Marky147]

Frank Harper looking slim there.

I really enjoy watching him, but he does seem to have piled the weight on a bit.

Yeah, he's a good actor.

Or maybe he's not acting, in some of those movies

Terrible piling the weight on like that... wouldn't catch any of us doing that.

[arbboy]

Why is it so hard to make a counter case against someone making a polite, well structured, logic and mathematically sound case against your bet being a long term winning bet?  That is all i have asked but as Camel says it never ever happens.  The thread isn't about backing 50 even money shots that should be 6/4 and winning 30 and everyone thinking you are a hero based off short term variance. I think when you have an 'image' on here as being a 'long term winner' even though the sample size is tiny you have a responsibility to the casual followers even more so to justify your selections in a correct manner as so many people like it or not are results orientated and follow 'winning' tipsters blind 'until they start losing'!  That made me chuckle.

Weetabix has been called out several times for making totally correct arguments and debates about bets and has been shouted down because the bets were from a 'winner' in the same way i was banned for a month for making a post that was tounge in cheek but 100% correct in everything it said about the 'winner'.

How can the fred followers learn from hector's expertise if when challenged occasionally he can't provide a reasonable argument for why the 16/1 in his opinion is the wrong price?  He makes Edmund a decent fav to beat Ferrer tomorrow in order to make Edmund a bet at 16/1 however they will not be a maximum bet put up on Edmund tomorrow when he is decent odds against even though Hector makes him odds on.  This is where the logic falls down and people with an educated opinion ask for an explanation but never get one.  The reality is he knows he has been found out as a guesser on several occasions and has no counter argument.  That is the reality.

lets get this straight. your post about Hector was so breathtakingly rude it made me gasp, and i wasn't alone

none of this tongue in cheek stuff please.

--

my point about counter arguments to bets is simply this. Lets use constructive language, not stuff like "worst bet ever" "shocking bet".

A number of people do it, and its extremely off-putting. If i am put off making any effort on the thread then sure as hell other people are, because i am the person most often trying to promote discussion and currently its the last thing i want to do

Breathtakingly rude?  Are you serious?  I have had at least 20 people contact me asking why on earth i was even banned for it as most of it was correct and true but too close to the bone because the person involved was a 'winner'.

Most of it was regarding direct quotes from the man himself ie turning the NBA or any other 'losing' sport into a winner by taking it under his wing and his lack of knowledge about staking sizes and reading a kelly staking theory book.  Is this what was considered 'breathtakingly rude'?  If not can you PM me what was so rude so i know whose toes i stood on and made so breathtakingly uncomfortable to justify a month's ban?

Arbboy must have the biggest PM box here, always soooo many people PM him after each incident agreeing with him. Not so many publically.......


As for the tiny % of winning guessers....we seem to have a fair few on here(i know by your definition, I am one)....I suppose that must be variance too?

Just to correct you adzdonk i said 'contact me' not PM me.  Plenty of people i know outside of blonde (who are not blonde members) read TFT and have others way to contact people than just PM's.  Skype, whats app, text, phone, email, good old fashioned talking when you see them in person etc etc.

Why don't we get back to business and on topic and get Hector to explain the value, or lack of it, in the 16/1 about Edmund?  Let's not get off track to allow Hector to slip quickly into the background on the back of another badly priced selection.  Sometimes you have to shout loud on blonde to get your point across as most people like a cosy life and to fit into the crowd.  Anyone remember 2010?

[tikay]

Frank Harper looking slim there.

I really enjoy watching him, but he does seem to have piled the weight on a bit.

Yeah, he's a good actor.

Or maybe he's not acting, in some of those movies

Terrible piling the weight on like that... wouldn't catch any of us doing that.

FFS, tell me about it. The older I get, the easier it is to put it on, & the harder it is to lose it.

[bergeroo]

Why is it so hard to make a counter case against someone making a polite, well structured, logic and mathematically sound case against your bet being a long term winning bet?  That is all i have asked but as Camel says it never ever happens.  The thread isn't about backing 50 even money shots that should be 6/4 and winning 30 and everyone thinking you are a hero based off short term variance. I think when you have an 'image' on here as being a 'long term winner' even though the sample size is tiny you have a responsibility to the casual followers even more so to justify your selections in a correct manner as so many people like it or not are results orientated and follow 'winning' tipsters blind 'until they start losing'!  That made me chuckle.

Weetabix has been called out several times for making totally correct arguments and debates about bets and has been shouted down because the bets were from a 'winner' in the same way i was banned for a month for making a post that was tounge in cheek but 100% correct in everything it said about the 'winner'.

How can the fred followers learn from hector's expertise if when challenged occasionally he can't provide a reasonable argument for why the 16/1 in his opinion is the wrong price?  He makes Edmund a decent fav to beat Ferrer tomorrow in order to make Edmund a bet at 16/1 however they will not be a maximum bet put up on Edmund tomorrow when he is decent odds against even though Hector makes him odds on.  This is where the logic falls down and people with an educated opinion ask for an explanation but never get one.  The reality is he knows he has been found out as a guesser on several occasions and has no counter argument.  That is the reality.

lets get this straight. your post about Hector was so breathtakingly rude it made me gasp, and i wasn't alone

none of this tongue in cheek stuff please.

--

my point about counter arguments to bets is simply this. Lets use constructive language, not stuff like "worst bet ever" "shocking bet".

A number of people do it, and its extremely off-putting. If i am put off making any effort on the thread then sure as hell other people are, because i am the person most often trying to promote discussion and currently its the last thing i want to do

Breathtakingly rude?  Are you serious?  I have had at least 20 people contact me asking why on earth i was even banned for it as most of it was correct and true but too close to the bone because the person involved was a 'winner'.

Most of it was regarding direct quotes from the man himself ie turning the NBA or any other 'losing' sport into a winner by taking it under his wing and his lack of knowledge about staking sizes and reading a kelly staking theory book.  Is this what was considered 'breathtakingly rude'?  If not can you PM me what was so rude so i know whose toes i stood on and made so breathtakingly uncomfortable to justify a month's ban?

Arbboy must have the biggest PM box here, always soooo many people PM him after each incident agreeing with him. Not so many publically.......


As for the tiny % of winning guessers....we seem to have a fair few on here(i know by your definition, I am one)....I suppose that must be variance too?

Just to correct you adzdonk i said 'contact me' not PM me.  Plenty of people i know outside of blonde (who are not blonde members) read TFT and have others way to contact people than just PM's.  Skype, whats app, text, phone, email, good old fashioned talking when you see them in person etc etc.

Why don't we get back to business and on topic and get Hector to explain the value, or lack of it, in the 16/1 about Edmund?  Let's not get off track to allow Hector to slip quickly into the background on the back of another badly priced selection.  Sometimes you have to shout loud on blonde to get your point across as most people like a cosy life and to fit into the crowd.  Anyone remember 2010?

What rough price would you make Edmund for the competition?

[Weetabix]

Tightend- I said what I wanted to say last night but could you not post things that I didn't actually say. I said this has to be the worst 16/1 shot in a tennis tournament, I haven't seen one as bad for some time,I never said this is the worst 16/1 bet ever placed, I said the worst price I never directly offended hectors selection, I said it was a shocking price and it still is.