Tips for Tikay

[bergeroo]

There's one really quick comparison fwiw. Kohl lost to Tipsarevic last week in straight sets in China. Lajovic beat him this week in straight sets. Kohlschreiber has woeful form in recent months. I don't know enough about Lajovic to have a bet myself on this match.

[aaron1867]

Is this is what it's going to be like every time Hector puts a bet up? Might as well be RIP Fred.

[TightEnd]

Morning Tighty.

Could we have £20 on Dusan Lajovic to beat Kohlshreiber at the ATP Moscow today. He is odds against and I think he should be favourite.

Suggest £500 £20 Lajovic @ 11/10 with Betfred or Hills.

Dusan Lajovic
Lajovic v Kohlschreiber Winner
11/10
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £42.00

[exstream]

Is this is what it's going to be like every time Hector puts a bet up? Might as well be RIP Fred.

It's what happens when everyone puts a Bet up.
Discussion

[Weetabix]

Bergeroo, simple way to put it and very true. Touched on kohlschreiber a few days ago amongst World War III, worst run of form for quite some time. Only reason lajovic is 11/10 is lack of form from Kohlschreiber, he could snap out of it today and it will be over in 2 sets of he continues his poor run of form.  Lajovic shows flashes of good tennis but overall Bergeroo the guy has lack of belief and it's clear to see, his head drops very quickly and he has probably overachieved even making the top 100, I don't think he has even sneaked inside the top 50.  I think Hector was super confident about lajovic chances and changed his mind at the last minute, as he went from a £500 bet to just £20?  

[Tonibell]

Is this is what it's going to be like every time Hector puts a bet up? Might as well be RIP Fred.

People who follow tips blind got what they want. Bergeroo* used his tennis knowledge to add to the thread. Happy days.

[edit: And weetabix]

[Weetabix]

Tonibell, a player in form over a player out of form in my view just gives you more confidence you are placing the correct bet.  Dangerous way to play long term imo, as you said the odds compliers also know this.

Hector may have this one correct and lajovic will win in straight sets,  I would like to ask why he staked £500 and then changed his mind? Or was this just to rile a certain member of the forum?

[DungBeetle]

Tonibell, a player in form over a player out of form in my view just gives you more confidence you are placing the correct bet.  Dangerous way to play long term imo, as you said the odds compliers also know this.

Hector may have this one correct and lajovic will win in straight sets,  I would like to ask why he staked £500 and then changed his mind? Or was this just to rile a certain member of the forum?

Pretty sure it was a joke following the fall out of the last few days!

[Tonibell]

It was just a joke. They're as welcome as explanations.

[edit: Dungbeetle in first.]

[aaron1867]

Is this is what it's going to be like every time Hector puts a bet up? Might as well be RIP Fred.

It's what happens when everyone puts a Bet up.
Discussion

It isn't though is it. Few just put up selections and auto-bet. So this just looks like a hector which hunt already

[arbboy]

Is this is what it's going to be like every time Hector puts a bet up? Might as well be RIP Fred.

It's what happens when everyone puts a Bet up.
Discussion

It isn't though is it. Few just put up selections and auto-bet. So this just looks like a hector which hunt already

It is not a Hector witch hunt.  It is logic discussion which this thread was set up for originally for serious sports bettors to exchange views on bets/events and discuss everyone's opinion.  In return less serious punters could learn how long term winning punters/layers price things up and make investments.  Tikay makes a few quid on the side to pay for the running costs of the site.  It was a win win win situation.

He backed a player at 16/1 to win an event where he would have to be a fav to beat Ferrer today.  He isn't.  He is 2/1 dog as i told you he would be 2 days ago.  Therefore if Hector thinks Edmund is a fav to win this match why isn't he putting up a £20 bet on Edmund today at 2/1?  This is why he is being exposed as a pin sticker by me because whether he wins or loses short or long term his logic is massively flawed whether he chooses to give reasons for his bets or not.  This is not the first time this lack of logic has been exposed either.  There are numerous other examples which have been questioned by other posters or not discussed or i (and i assume others) have noticed and not brought up.  Putting up anytime try scorers in rugby games where he said he fancied a really low scoring game is another example which has occurred several times.  The more quiet he stays and refuses to enter into discussion regarding his bets the more people will question why?  What does he have to hide to not enter into discussion?  Lack of knowledge?  Fear of being exposed as a guesser?  He has said in the past he could sort out any losing sports P+L figures just by doing some form book study on the said sport which is a big claim to make if you can't enter into a simple discussion about pricing up a 5 timer on the tennis to explain why the 16/1 was a good bet.

Everyone sticking up for him is just being results orientated themselves because they have made money short term from his selections.  If he was losing 10% roi would everyone still be having the same views and think Hector's bets are above question or discussion?  Everyone on TFT has a tiny sample of bets which are not conclusive to wether they are long term winners or not.

[nellberg]

In the spirit of "logical discussion" ... calling all cricket experts

The 2nd test between Pakistan and West Indies begins early tomorrow morning. Pakistan won a tight-ish 1st test by 40 runs after dominating early on.There have been 8 tests since the 1st at this venue in 2010. We have had 4 Pakistan wins and 4 draws. The draw is 4/1 here, is that something we should be looking to back?

In the 1st innings the top bowler for Pakistan has been a seamer 6 times, a spinner once and a tie between a seamer/spinner on the other occasion. A spinner (Yasir shah) is 5/2 fav, is he worth opposing?

In the 1st innings the top bowler for the away team has been seamer 5 times, a spinner once, a tie between two seamers once and a tie between a seamer/spinner on the other occasion. A spinner (Devendra Bishoo) is 9/4 fav, is he worth opposing?

[Weetabix]

I would like to make it clear I have nothing against Hector, I only intended to add a little input on ways to increase potential profit for those who follow hectors selections.   First time I posted I was called a smart Arse tosser when my intentions were to show how to make more money for the ones who jump aboard on the outright tournament price. I am think skinned so the comments don't bother me one bit but others seem easily offended and wound up. Other tournaments aren't  as easy to work out when your next round opponents don't have a bye to round 2 but in this case it really was easy to work out.  In my view when you took this Edmund bet knowing ferrer was the next opponent It was if the bookmaker taking the bet was having what you guys call, freeroll because of the price you were willing to take, if he lost your money was done and if he won(which he did) you gained no value on the bet struck in the first place.

Tightend has recently pointed out that although this thread was originally set up to make money It is also for a bit of fun so I understand these bets Hector puts up are thought of in that way and not just about making money.

I don't think for one minute Hector makes Edmund even close to fav against Ferrer.

[TightEnd]

Tightend has recently pointed out that although this thread was originally set up to make money It is also for a bit of fun so I understand these bets Hector puts up are thought of in that way and not just about making money.

no, they are thought about as making money

the thread overall is meant to be fun and everyone, hector included, will put up -EV bets at times.

no problem with discussion on them, we can all learn from that especially the person who puts it up, it is the TONE of that discussion that i took issue with.

[arbboy]

I would like to make it clear I have nothing against Hector, I only intended to add a little input on ways to increase potential profit for those who follow hectors selections.   First time I posted I was called a smart Arse tosser when my intentions were to show how to make more money for the ones who jump aboard on the outright tournament price. I am think skinned so the comments don't bother me one bit but others seem easily offended and wound up. Other tournaments aren't  as easy to work out when your next round opponents don't have a bye to round 2 but in this case it really was easy to work out.  In my view when you took this Edmund bet knowing ferrer was the next opponent It was if the bookmaker taking the bet was having what you guys call, freeroll because of the price you were willing to take, if he lost your money was done and if he won(which he did) you gained no value on the bet struck in the first place AND YOU STILL HAVE A BAD BET NOW AT 16/1 even though he is through to the second round when he was a 34% chance to not even make the 2nd round

Tightend has recently pointed out that although this thread was originally set up to make money It is also for a bit of fun so I understand these bets Hector puts up are thought of in that way and not just about making money.

I don't think for one minute Hector makes Edmund even close to fav against Ferrer.

FYP