Tips for Tikay

[baldock92]

I dont think the abrupt post serve any purpose, so fk off.

 

[Peter-27]

There has been quite a lot of debating on here over the last few days, but no-one seems to have hit upon the core issue. It's pretty clear to me that tensions are just getting high because we've had two weeks without any F1 .. the withdrawal symptoms are getting too hard to control, but it's the USGP this weekend, so let's get back to normal

Here are my suggestions:

Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 6/4 with Paddi/Betfayre/Exchange. You could make a case for Lewis (5/4) or Nico here. Nico has the higher price, so I'm going for him. Simple as that really. Nico should really be the favourite, he has four wins in the last five races compared to Lewis' zero. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/winner

Pole Position: Lewis Hamilton @ 6/5 with Choral. Despite my Nico tip for the win, I do feel that Lewis will have the edge in qualifying around this circuit. Will be close for sure, but I'm happy to take > EVS. £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/pole-position

Podium Finish: Max Verstappen @ 23/17 with Beewin (13/10 with the exchange is fine too). Two consecutive second places for Max, with Ferrari not having a podium for three races .. 13/10 is too high. Suggest £30.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/top-3-finish

P.S. Following the Hong Kong ePrix, I'm still in Asia touring the ASEAN countries as I took the whole of October off from work (overdue holiday). Currently in Brunei where online gambling is illegal and the laws are both strict and severe, so I won't actually be placing these bets myself yet. Will do so when I fly back to Hong Kong tomorrow.

[nellberg]

In the spirit of "logical discussion" ... calling all cricket experts

The 2nd test between Pakistan and West Indies begins early tomorrow morning. Pakistan won a tight-ish 1st test by 40 runs after dominating early on.There have been 8 tests since the 1st at this venue in 2010. We have had 4 Pakistan wins and 4 draws. The draw is 4/1 here, is that something we should be looking to back?

In the 1st innings the top bowler for Pakistan has been a seamer 6 times, a spinner once and a tie between a seamer/spinner on the other occasion. A spinner (Yasir shah) is 5/2 fav, is he worth opposing?

In the 1st innings the top bowler for the away team has been seamer 5 times, a spinner once, a tie between two seamers once and a tie between a seamer/spinner on the other occasion. A spinner (Devendra Bishoo) is 9/4 fav, is he worth opposing?

I don't have much to add, really, other than might those trends be a bit small sample size? And that the first match was incredibly 'swingy' - Azhar Ali scored 300 and they could have lost the match on the final day - incredibly entertaining and incredibly on free-to-air telly on Zing (Sky 789). Watch the next and with the adverts you'll never wonder again where you can get an immigration solicitor or a safe deposit box.

i'd add that the first test was a day-night pink ball test

both teams found it hindered spin early and reverse swing when it got dew-y in the evenings

this match in Abu Dhabi is a traditional red ball test. win the toss/bat. try to bowl last. the last te4st there was Egland last year and it was a dog of a pitch. too good

the problem with opposing Yasir in a red ball test in the UAE is he's so good. just become the second quickest player ever to 100 wickets in tests and Pakistan rotate the seamers a lot within an innings. Mohammed Amir is the obvious one to look at though

west indies i have less feel for, in part because the bowling line up is less exposed. again though i'd be comfortable in saying that Bishoo is their best bowler 

i would be tempted by the draw at 4/1.

Yeh, 1st thoughts were that the main 2 were the ones, wasn't sure if 8 tests at a ground was enough to make a case for opposing them. List of Pakistan seamers to win the award is hardly stellar (Junaid, Rahat, Imrann) and opposition winners include Stokes and Corey Anderson for the last 2 games  

I've had small bets on Wahab (5/1, good on his day) and Joesph (9/2, very unexposed) but it's a bit of a stab in the dark. Draw seems more solid if anything. Pakistan's collapse in their 2nd innings may mean they are a bit more circumspect setting up a chase and West Indies showed a bit more fight than I'd expected.

[horseplayer]

In the spirit of "logical discussion" ... calling all cricket experts

The 2nd test between Pakistan and West Indies begins early tomorrow morning. Pakistan won a tight-ish 1st test by 40 runs after dominating early on.There have been 8 tests since the 1st at this venue in 2010. We have had 4 Pakistan wins and 4 draws. The draw is 4/1 here, is that something we should be looking to back?

In the 1st innings the top bowler for Pakistan has been a seamer 6 times, a spinner once and a tie between a seamer/spinner on the other occasion. A spinner (Yasir shah) is 5/2 fav, is he worth opposing?

In the 1st innings the top bowler for the away team has been seamer 5 times, a spinner once, a tie between two seamers once and a tie between a seamer/spinner on the other occasion. A spinner (Devendra Bishoo) is 9/4 fav, is he worth opposing?

I don't have much to add, really, other than might those trends be a bit small sample size? And that the first match was incredibly 'swingy' - Azhar Ali scored 300 and they could have lost the match on the final day - incredibly entertaining and incredibly on free-to-air telly on Zing (Sky 789). Watch the next and with the adverts you'll never wonder again where you can get an immigration solicitor or a safe deposit box.

i'd add that the first test was a day-night pink ball test

both teams found it hindered spin early and reverse swing when it got dew-y in the evenings

this match in Abu Dhabi is a traditional red ball test. win the toss/bat. try to bowl last. the last te4st there was Egland last year and it was a dog of a pitch. too good

the problem with opposing Yasir in a red ball test in the UAE is he's so good. just become the second quickest player ever to 100 wickets in tests and Pakistan rotate the seamers a lot within an innings. Mohammed Amir is the obvious one to look at though

west indies i have less feel for, in part because the bowling line up is less exposed. again though i'd be comfortable in saying that Bishoo is their best bowler 

i would be tempted by the draw at 4/1.

Yeh, 1st thoughts were that the main 2 were the ones, wasn't sure if 8 tests at a ground was enough to make a case for opposing them. List of Pakistan seamers to win the award is hardly stellar (Junaid, Rahat, Imrann) and opposition winners include Stokes and Corey Anderson for the last 2 games  

I've had small bets on Wahab (5/1, good on his day) and Joesph (9/2, very unexposed) but it's a bit of a stab in the dark. Draw seems more solid if anything. Pakistan's collapse in their 2nd innings may mean they are a bit more circumspect setting up a chase and West Indies showed a bit more fight than I'd expected.

Really good first test bar the ads...

Couldn't have the draw windies still have a very long tail and pak looked leggy after such a big effort in the first innings...

[arbboy]

Following on from that, any reason why Huddersfield are as high as 7/4 with Victors to beat Derby? Huddersfield had a decent start to the season and are currently in 4th, whereas Derby have had a pretty slow start by their standards, sitting in 20th as it stands.

Can help fred get on if wanted. I've not been able to follow the championship much this season but on the face of it this seems a pretty decent bet, thought Huddersfield would be closer to odds on.

Various factors.  New gaffer for Derby.  Underperformed so far results wise based on stats.  Huddersfield probably the opposite to a certain degree.  Home advantage isn't as important in the championship than the EPL for example.  No view on the price tbh but these are probably the factors causing it which is what you asked.  No idea on team news etc either way which could easily be a factor.

[Archer]

Following on from that, any reason why Huddersfield are as high as 7/4 with Victors to beat Derby? Huddersfield had a decent start to the season and are currently in 4th, whereas Derby have had a pretty slow start by their standards, sitting in 20th as it stands.

Can help fred get on if wanted. I've not been able to follow the championship much this season but on the face of it this seems a pretty decent bet, thought Huddersfield would be closer to odds on.

Various factors.  New gaffer for Derby.  Underperformed so far results wise based on stats.  Huddersfield probably the opposite to a certain degree.  Home advantage isn't as important in the championship than the EPL for example.  No view on the price tbh but these are probably the factors causing it which is what you asked.  No idea on team news etc either way which could easily be a factor.

Mr Baldock, on the face of it I can see why it stands out for you - it's the biggest price Huddersfield have been at home this season. The previous biggest price was when they played Wednesday at the weekend and were about 2.65. But like Arb no idea on news etc.

[ripple11]

Sky's Saturday lunchtime match B'mouth v Spurs.

Bournemouth buoyant after a hull of a game last week, so if someone fancies a couple of little fun bets whilst in the Dog and Duck watching this match, can I suggest Paddy has a bit of value and top prices for first goalscorers for B'mouth.

Junior Stanislas  scored 2 last week (1 pen), 3 in total for the season and joint top scorer so far.
Interestingly after being bought down in the area Callum Wilson grabbed the ball, but in fact Junior took the penalty ,so I think we can assume he is now the nominated penalty taker.

11/1  e/w first 5 1/3 odds

Steve Cook scored last week (comes up for corners/set pieces, good with his feet as well as headers!.)Scored 4 goals last season..and was joint 3rd top scorer for the season ;-)

40/1 e/w  first 5 1/3 odds

[aaron1867]

Following on from that, any reason why Huddersfield are as high as 7/4 with Victors to beat Derby? Huddersfield had a decent start to the season and are currently in 4th, whereas Derby have had a pretty slow start by their standards, sitting in 20th as it stands.

Can help fred get on if wanted. I've not been able to follow the championship much this season but on the face of it this seems a pretty decent bet, thought Huddersfield would be closer to odds on.

The thing with Huddersfield, if I remember rightly, that most of their wins have been by the odd goal. They sit 4th, but they haven't really hammered anyone? I read somewhere that there has been 2/3 games where it could have gone either way.

They are now suddenly out of form after a deserved home loss against Wednesday and a good beating against PNE. Tough to make a call on price/game, plus Derby played tues

[arbboy]

Sky's Saturday lunchtime match B'mouth v Spurs.

Bournemouth buoyant after a hull of a game last week, so if someone fancies a couple of little fun bets whilst in the Dog and Duck watching this match, can I suggest Paddy has a bit of value and top prices for first goalscorers for B'mouth.

Junior Stanislas  scored 2 last week (1 pen), 3 in total for the season and joint top scorer so far.
Interestingly after being bought down in the area Callum Wilson grabbed the ball, but in fact Junior took the penalty ,so I think we can assume he is now the nominated penalty taker.

11/1  e/w first 5 1/3 odds

Steve Cook scored last week (comes up for corners/set pieces, good with his feet as well as headers!.)Scored 4 goals last season..and was joint 3rd top scorer for the season ;-)

40/1 e/w  first 5 1/3 odds

Not a dig but never bet ew goalscorers in anything other than a huge one sided mis match where the goal quote for the game is in the 4 or 5 goal range.  Also at Paddy only the first 5 goals count as well.  You can get greater than 4/1 and 14/1 these to score at any time whereas you are taking 11/3 and 13/1 here and if they score 6th in the game you lose as well.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/bournemouth-v-tottenham/anytime-goalscorer

[Tonibell]

Underperformed so far results wise based on stats.  

This is it, isn't it? Expected goals has them much higher in the table so they're pricing a regression to the mean? SPIN's season spreads suggest the same http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/domestic-championship/group_a.0a3c8e51-1f3c-4d4b-84cb-bd13d3debfdd/championship-points-2016-17

[Edit: Not that I know anything about it. I just saw Arb's mate Nick Goff talking about it one day on Twitter.]

[bergeroo]

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/tennis/tie-break-tens/winner

Tie break tens! Weird thing. Basically they play matches up to ten points. That's it. They had one before in London.

You will notice the lineup includes three top pros, Marcus Willis who was last seen being destroyed by Roger Federer at Wimbledon and two long retired guys.

In London they had two groups of three. Pros in one and McEnroe/Henman etc in the other. Top two from each group went through to the semis where the pros had easy wins and the Edmund played Murray in the final.

Question. How much of a favourite can one top pro be in an exhibition tie break vs another?

Of the three, I'd say Tsonga is most likely to play for the lolz/paycheck. Thiem at 4/1 will surely try hard in front of his home crowd. .Murray is the best of course- but how much of an edge can he have?

I can't for the life of me see how some of the retired guys are so short to beat top 10 players even in such a short format. Willis has also not played  tourney since Wimbledon. He has a special wildcard into qualifying for the main Vienna tourney next week.

Suggest £20 on Thiem to win tie break tens at 4/1 with pp/laddies

What do people think?

[Horneris]

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/tennis/tie-break-tens/winner

Tie break tens! Weird thing. Basically they play matches up to ten points. That's it. They had one before in London.

You will notice the lineup includes three top pros, Marcus Willis who was last seen being destroyed by Roger Federer at Wimbledon and two long retired guys.

In London they had two groups of three. Pros in one and McEnroe/Henman etc in the other. Top two from each group went through to the semis where the pros had easy wins and the Edmund played Murray in the final.

Question. How much of a favourite can one top pro be in an exhibition tie break vs another?

Of the three, I'd say Tsonga is most likely to play for the lolz/paycheck. Thiem at 4/1 will surely try hard in front of his home crowd. .Murray is the best of course- but how much of an edge can he have?

I can't for the life of me see how some of the retired guys are so short to beat top 10 players even in such a short format. Willis has also not played  tourney since Wimbledon. He has a special wildcard into qualifying for the main Vienna tourney next week.

Suggest £20 on Thiem to win tie break tens at 4/1 with pp/laddies

What do people think?

haha I quite like this recommendation.

I watched last years, they pretty much let Edmund win for the £250k prize. He doesn't need it anymore ofc and is instead about to lose to Ferrer in Antwerp  but Marcus Willis certainly does, al;though the market seems to be aware of this situation (he was 12s when the market opened!) and I'd be struggling to back him at 6/1 if it was first to 1 point tiebreaks tbh.

Thiem should try in front of his home crowd for sure, the only danger is that he hasn't played much tennis recently and has had niggling injuries. Probably won't matter though if he takes it seriously.

Murray wasn't that arsed in it last year, as you say Tsonga might rofl about a bit and play tweeners for bantz, lets go Dominic!

[ripple11]

Sky's Saturday lunchtime match B'mouth v Spurs.

Bournemouth buoyant after a hull of a game last week, so if someone fancies a couple of little fun bets whilst in the Dog and Duck watching this match, can I suggest Paddy has a bit of value and top prices for first goalscorers for B'mouth.

Junior Stanislas  scored 2 last week (1 pen), 3 in total for the season and joint top scorer so far.
Interestingly after being bought down in the area Callum Wilson grabbed the ball, but in fact Junior took the penalty ,so I think we can assume he is now the nominated penalty taker.

11/1  e/w first 5 1/3 odds

Steve Cook scored last week (comes up for corners/set pieces, good with his feet as well as headers!.)Scored 4 goals last season..and was joint 3rd top scorer for the season ;-)

40/1 e/w  first 5 1/3 odds

Not a dig but never bet ew goalscorers in anything other than a huge one sided mis match where the goal quote for the game is in the 4 or 5 goal range.  Also at Paddy only the first 5 goals count as well.  You can get greater than 4/1 and 14/1 these to score at any time whereas you are taking 11/3 and 13/1 here and if they score 6th in the game you lose as well.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/bournemouth-v-tottenham/anytime-goalscorer

ah interesting...cheers arb

[bergeroo]

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/tennis/tie-break-tens/winner

Tie break tens! Weird thing. Basically they play matches up to ten points. That's it. They had one before in London.

You will notice the lineup includes three top pros, Marcus Willis who was last seen being destroyed by Roger Federer at Wimbledon and two long retired guys.

In London they had two groups of three. Pros in one and McEnroe/Henman etc in the other. Top two from each group went through to the semis where the pros had easy wins and the Edmund played Murray in the final.

Question. How much of a favourite can one top pro be in an exhibition tie break vs another?

Of the three, I'd say Tsonga is most likely to play for the lolz/paycheck. Thiem at 4/1 will surely try hard in front of his home crowd. .Murray is the best of course- but how much of an edge can he have?

I can't for the life of me see how some of the retired guys are so short to beat top 10 players even in such a short format. Willis has also not played  tourney since Wimbledon. He has a special wildcard into qualifying for the main Vienna tourney next week.

Suggest £20 on Thiem to win tie break tens at 4/1 with pp/laddies

What do people think?

haha I quite like this recommendation.

I watched last years, they pretty much let Edmund win for the £250k prize. He doesn't need it anymore ofc and is instead about to lose to Ferrer in Antwerp  but Marcus Willis certainly does, al;though the market seems to be aware of this situation (he was 12s when the market opened!) and I'd be struggling to back him at 6/1 if it was first to 1 point tiebreaks tbh.

Thiem should try in front of his home crowd for sure, the only danger is that he hasn't played much tennis recently and has had niggling injuries. Probably won't matter though if he takes it seriously.

Murray wasn't that arsed in it last year, as you say Tsonga might rofl about a bit and play tweeners for bantz, lets go Dominic!

If they put Willis in a group with Haas and Goran then he has a shot but I can't touch him now at   Otherwise he will probably be toast?

[Weetabix]

I am fairly sure Tommy haas is in pretty decent shape still so surprised he is available at 20/1, yet Willis and goran at 6/1.  Could be wrong, Tommy prob has his arm in a sling. Story of his career.  Shame really as he was a top player when fit.

I remember watching Murray v Edmund, he may as well of written a cheque and handed it to Kyle over the net. If I was having a go which I won't be I would go with big Jo.