Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

Delighted we made a profit this month on F1, and on the Abu Dhabi GP too

The Rosberg bet was mine yes, also suggested it in 2015 which didn't come off.

As for today's events, I've been following F1 for twenty years and nothing has ever surprised me more than today's announcement - this throws the driver market into absolute chaos. No-one expected this, including Mercedes themselves. The situation is now particularly complicated because most drivers are already under contract for 2016.

The obvious choice for the seat is Pascal Wehrlein. He's part of their academy and doesn't have a contract in place. However, it's more than possible that Mercedes will think he's not quite ready for a drive at a top team yet. Fernando Alonso is under contract at McLaren, but Mercedes know they'll be able to buy him out of the cash-strapped team quite easily should they want to. If Mercedes were keen on Wehrlein for 2018, perhaps they could bring in Jenson Button on a one year deal. He's contracted to no-one in 2017, and I'm sure he'd jump at the chance of a Mercedes drive. They're the three obvious candidates in my eyes. It's also worth noting that Toto Wolff (Mercedes F1 executive director) owns 30% of Valtteri Bottas.

What I'm wondering though is if Vettel has an active release clause on his contract because Ferrari didn't win a race in 2016. Mercedes will surely prefer a German driver, won't they? Absolutely fascinating situation.

Just to throw another spanner in the works, a reliable source tells me that Lewis has a meeting with the Mercedes board tomorrow to discuss his future and any disciplinary action following the Abu Dhabi GP. A contract termination is a real possibility, so I'm told.

To get this straightened out, what Lewis did was wrong - that's an absolute fact. He's an employee of Mercedes and when he refused to follow his manager's instructions, he broke his contractual obligation. However, given the circumstances, that's completely understandable; the majority of racing drivers would have done the same. Understandable does not mean excusable though, and Mercedes will, and should, punish him in some way. A fine or wage cut is most likely. Everyone was right in this situation though, from their own perspective. Mercedes were right for telling Lewis to stop backing Nico up. Lewis was right for doing everything in his power to try and take the title.

[Peter-27]

For reasons already mentioned; I suggest £10 on:

Alonso @ 73/5
Button @ 20/1
Bottas @ 33/1

For the title next year.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

Werhlein's price has already been slashed to 5/1, but I don't believe Mercedes will think he's ready yet - and I would agree with that assessment.

[redsimon]

For reasons already mentioned; I suggest £10 on:

Alonso @ 73/5
Button @ 20/1
Bottas @ 33/1

For the title next year.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

Werhlein's price has already been slashed to 5/1, but I don't believe Mercedes will think he's ready yet - and I would agree with that assessment.

You know lots about F1 I appreciate but hasn't Button signed a two-year deal to be an ambassador with the McLaren team holding an option for him to return as a race driver in 2018?

[Peter-27]

For reasons already mentioned; I suggest £10 on:

Alonso @ 73/5
Button @ 20/1
Bottas @ 33/1

For the title next year.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

Werhlein's price has already been slashed to 5/1, but I don't believe Mercedes will think he's ready yet - and I would agree with that assessment.

You know lots about F1 I appreciate but hasn't Button signed a two-year deal to be an ambassador with the McLaren team holding an option for him to return as a race driver in 2018?

Whilst I did hear that in the media, my understanding is that Button is not under contract next season (despite his ambassadorial duties) and is contracted for 2018. Whilst we're on the subject of Jenson, I'd be very surprised if he's not racing in 2018, despite him treating the Abu Dhabi GP as a retirement.

[Tal]

Any chance of Kyvat?

Can't imagine he'd be a difficult poach. He clearly had talent. Just badly out of it psychologically. Could be a steal.

Stan had him at 500/1.

Tried £20 each way (we can dream)...

£1.65 sir?

Ok. £1.65 each way.

At 250/1?

Hang on. What happened to 500/1?

It's 250/1 now.

Sudden flurry of bets have we?

...

Hello?

[Peter-27]

Any chance of Kyvat?

Can't imagine he'd be a difficult poach. He clearly had talent. Just badly out of it psychologically. Could be a steal.

Stan had him at 500/1.

Tried £20 each way (we can dream)...

£1.65 sir?

Ok. £1.65 each way.

At 250/1?

Hang on. What happened to 500/1?

It's 250/1 now.

Sudden flurry of bets have we?

...

Hello?

Can't say it's impossible, but there are multiple drivers higher on the pecking order that would be available. Not a bet in my mind.

[kukushkin88]

For all that is good about England at the moment and they have been mostly fantastic under Jones, I think Australia represent a bit of value at 3/1. They look to be improving, will be excellent at the breakdown today and England are missing their very best players in Itoje and Billy, arguably Vunipola is the one they're worst placed to replace depth wise. Recommend £60, it's available in 4-5 spots. Can we get on at Betway?

[TightEnd]

For all that is good about England at the moment and they have been mostly fantastic under Jones, I think Australia represent a bit of value at 3/1. They look to be improving, will be excellent at the breakdown today and England are missing their very best players in Itoje and Billy, arguably Vunipola is the one they're worst placed to replace depth wise. Recommend £60, it's available in 4-5 spots. Can we get on at Betway?

not Betway, no

[tikay]

For all that is good about England at the moment and they have been mostly fantastic under Jones, I think Australia represent a bit of value at 3/1. They look to be improving, will be excellent at the breakdown today and England are missing their very best players in Itoje and Billy, arguably Vunipola is the one they're worst placed to replace depth wise. Recommend £60, it's available in 4-5 spots. Can we get on at Betway?

Today's free to read "Road to Riches" on BE has a view on this game, too.

[kukushkin88]

For all that is good about England at the moment and they have been mostly fantastic under Jones, I think Australia represent a bit of value at 3/1. They look to be improving, will be excellent at the breakdown today and England are missing their very best players in Itoje and Billy, arguably Vunipola is the one they're worst placed to replace depth wise. Recommend £60, it's available in 4-5 spots. Can we get on at Betway?

not Betway, no

Shall we try Coral? If not might as well leave it. I do kind of agree that England by 1-12 looks OK too, definitely think Australia will be very competitive.

[Doobs]

The becher chase at aintree is 5 places with 365.

Am on vinconte du noyer 11/1 and dare to endeavor 18/1.

No time.  If thread wants 15 e/w both let me know.

[tikay]

The becher chase at aintree is 5 places with 365.

Am on vinconte du noyer 11/1 and dare to endeavor 18/1.

No time.  If thread wants 15 e/w both let me know.

Yes please, David.

BOOKED.

[TightEnd]

For all that is good about England at the moment and they have been mostly fantastic under Jones, I think Australia represent a bit of value at 3/1. They look to be improving, will be excellent at the breakdown today and England are missing their very best players in Itoje and Billy, arguably Vunipola is the one they're worst placed to replace depth wise. Recommend £60, it's available in 4-5 spots. Can we get on at Betway?

not Betway, no

Shall we try Coral? If not might as well leave it. I do kind of agree that England by 1-12 looks OK too, definitely think Australia will be very competitive.

tried for £60, coral restricted to £8.30 sorry. game's gone etc etc

[Ledders]

Edit: I'm a muppet. Nothing to see here.

[arbboy]

For those with PaddyPower you can back England 1-14 at 7/4 dutched

Lay England 1-12 at 13/8 on betfair for an arb too if you wish

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/england-v-australia/winning-margin

Not sure where you are getting the 7/4 from here?  1-7 and 8-14 are both 7/2 with paddy.  Coupled this is a 5/4 shot not a 7/4 shot.  22.2% twice is 44.4% or 5/4.  I assume you have just doubled the bottom number of the fraction in your incorrect calculation to get to 7/4.  I don't see how else you could have got to 7/4 otherwise.

Both prices would have to be 9/2 to be 7/4 coupled.  18.18% x 2 = 36.36% or 7/4 as a fraction.