Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

I'd switch to team MVG, had a chunk here. In a double with Chelsea to win their third round FA Cup match. Enhances the price to just over Tucson. Sometimes just feels right to bank on class.

[arbboy]

Seem big mid/wide at Rommers and Yarmouth dogs tonight if anyone is itching for a bet.  Looks larger and larger wide the longer the races go on.

[arbboy]

I'd switch to team MVG, had a chunk here. In a double with Chelsea to win their third round FA Cup match. Enhances the price to just over Tucson. Sometimes just feels right to bank on class.

Happy to put the whole lot £1500 on MVG to flip the position.  Tighty is online but unsighted on fred so nothing we can do.

[TightEnd]

I've seen it but mobile so not in a position to do it.

[Cavey007]

NFL regular season is over. How did Fred do?

Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North (£50 @ 2/1)

This is the division:

Green Bay 10-6
Detroit 9-7
Minnesota 8-8
Chicago 3-13

Season ending injuries to key players is always going to be a problem for a team, especially in a division as competitive as the NFC North.

The Vikings gambled a first round pick to bring in cover at quarterback in Sam Bradford. He was exactly the steady hand they wanted, but without star running back Adrian Peterson and a number of other significant players, they simply didn't have the artillery in key games.

Assessment: we had a good price but got unlucky with injuries.


Arizona Cardinals to win the Super Bowl (£20 @ 12/1)

Consensus both ITT and across the world had Arizona as one of the top teams for this season. The simple fact is they haven't been able to relive the magic of last year. It's not yet clear whether the real Cardinals are the 2015 or the 2016 edition, but this iteration never really threatened to dominate the NFC like we thought they might.

Head Coach, Bruce Arians, had health issues, star safety, Tyrann Matthieu has again struggled to stay fit, the receiving corps hasn't been anywhere near as potent, the evergreen Larry Fitzgerald and the mercurial David Johnson aside.

Assessment: Perhaps we bet a team on the top of the curve.


San Francisco 49ers to have the NFL's worst record (£50 @ 7/1)

The logic for the bet was the roster is poor, the coach is terrible and the schedule was tough. I'd expected 3-13 to be the first overall pick.

The roster has been one only a mother could love, the coach has been fired, along with the General Manager, the schedule has been so tough they only beat one team: the Rams (first game of the season when the Rams were fast asleep and then again when they have been forced to play a rookie QB who isn't ready).

The win last weekend was hugely frustrating and made little sense for the team in the medium to long term. But the coach needed to win for his own record and the quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, knows he might still be there next season. So, in the short term, a win mattered enough.

We didn't bargain on the Cleveland Browns being just as bad. Even then, the Browns have a much better head coach and a couple of decent players. But they kept losing. 

One game behind, it all came down to the last game.

Yesterday, I wrote:

"For us to win this bet, Cleveland will have to win against Playoff participants Pittsburgh Steelers, who will be resting a few players. It's not impossible, but we're relying on Pittsburgh being rubbish and Cleveland both being competent and actually trying to win. And we know how much Fred loves trebles..."

Highlights:

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2017010108/2016/REG17/browns@steelers/videos

The Browns missed a field goal likely to win it. They also dropped the ball when about to score a touchdown. They also dropped the ball when setting up a game-winning field goal. They even went ahead in overtime, only to concede a touchdown to lose.

Result is the Browns finished 1-15 and the 49ers finished 2-14.

Assessment: At 7/1, we had a great bet. One of those things.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers total points over 350.5 (£22 @ 10/11)

Scores in 16 games:

31
7
32
7
17
34
24
28
36
19
14
28
16
20
24
17

354 points after 16 games, meaning we did a win!

The offense was good but inconsistent, because of injuries to key players.

Assessment: a good bet and probably closer than it ought to have been


Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers) to get the most receiving yards (£50 @ 9/2)

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&statisticCategory=RECEIVING&conference=null&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RECEIVING_YARDS&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1

Brown struggled at times, much like the Steelers. The team missed Martavis Bryant as the supporting wide receiver, meaning teams could defend against Brown more easily. He finished 5th but 160 yards off first

Assessment: a logical bet but not to be.


David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals) to have the most rushing yards (£25 each way (1,2,3, 1/4) at 18/1)

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS&tabSeq=0&season=2016&Submit=Go&experience=&archive=false&statisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=null&qualified=false

The star man on the ground this season has been a rookie for Dallas. Week 17 saw a number of the big names rested, meaning we had a strong chance of making the place money.

But Johnson got a hideous injury early into the game and was declared out immediately.

1. Ezekiel Elliott 1,631
2. Jordan Howard 1,313
3. DeMarco Murray 1,287
4. Jay Ajayi 1,272
5. Le'Veon Bell 1,268
6. LeSean McCoy 1,267
7. David Johnson 1,239

49 yards would have got us home and that was perfectly achievable.

Assessment: Johnson is one of the NFL's superstars. We knew he gets a lot of passes thrown his way and that cuts into his yards on the ground. The fact the team hasn't dominated like we hoped has also hurt us. And yet he STILL nearly got there.



Overall

A net loss but I do think we put a good portfolio together for the season.

We still have the Falcons to funk for, plus whatever else we pick for the playoffs.

Good effort.. the bets were pretty much right. Lot rested on the Cards but they really weren't at the races this year. If I'd of seen I'd of disagreed with D Johnson rush yards because of his ability catching but if the team had been better he probably would of been more of a rusher than having to carry the team himself.

Brown was worth a top 3 punt. Doubt many people had TY Hilton top there! I personally had AJ Green in a bet who probably would of done had he not got injured when Julio did.

The worst record bet was spot on too imo. Just one of those things. The browns fell apart at critical points and the run back from the INT yesterday pretty much summed up their season, I personally think they were better than the niners over the year, or maybe less inept overall. Better suggests they weren't one of the two worst teams.

The buccs points looked like it'd win by a mile and should of done but they magically found they had a defense for a month or two and didn't have to score the points. Nice bet though.

As a stupidly early look I'll be seeing what the Chargers line is set to next year in a lot of markets, they had such ridiculous luck with injuries. Again this year, and it cost McCoy his job so worth keeping an eye on that. Which I know you guys will. Obviously before the draft it's impossible or to predict anything really.

Oh and obviously the Vikings got decimated with injuries too. If you had decided on them a week or two later you'd of got lucky and not gone for them after Teddy nearly lost his leg

[arbboy]

I've seen it but mobile so not in a position to do it.

No worries. 

[arbboy]

As the averages get higher and higher it becomes harder and harder to break throw which means the 5th leg in a set becomes more and more important.  Ando dodged a monster bullet there.  He looks really nervous to me under pressure clinging on for dear life.

[Jamier-Host]

MVG to beat Anderson in final is 5/1 with Sky. Sounds pretty decent.

Dunno if it was value but will take it anyway

[Tal]

MVG to beat Anderson in final is 5/1 with Sky. Sounds pretty decent.

Dunno if it was value but will take it anyway

Good work!

Nice start to the year there, JH. Well done.

[ripple11]

13/2 Anderson is with bet victor or stan james, 6/1 elsewhere. tikay can't do either outlet

can anyone get us on e/w?

draw looks very lopsided see above.

3/1 to win a half without MVG, Taylor, Lewis, RVB as above and doesn't have to play Wade or Wright to a semi final

£200 ew at 13/2 put it down to arb on the spreadsheet.  Chiss is no certainty to be his 1/4 final opponent either with Klassen in his section.

Nice work guys  ......will sort out Fred's winnings shortly.

[TightEnd]

The FA Cup 3rd round is this weekend

We all know that the competition's standing has been marginalised in the Premier League/Champions League era

The result is usually heavily rotated Premier League teams throughout the competition and a much less predictable set of teams that go deep in the competition

Just looking at recent winners, you wouldn't see this: Arsenal, Arsenal, Man U are the last 3 winners

but if you just go back through the last four years and look at those who have made Wembley semi's

12-13 Millwall, Wigan
13-14 Wigan, Hull, Sheff U
14-15 Villa, Reading
15-16 Watford, Palace

last year Watford were 80-1 at this stage, Palace 66-1. (i backed Watford e/w a year ago this week and fell just short)

each way betting on the competition has completely opened up. Obviously there is a fair amount of luck in running needed in the round by round draws.

When looking at candidates for this year for value my check list went as follows

- avoid all teams in contention for the PL title and Champions league places. Particularly the sides still in the CL, midweek ties Feb onwards come after FA Cp weekends
- avoid all teams at risk of relegation. Won't give a toss about the FA Cup
- avoid championship teams going for the title or play-offs. as above.
- teams must have a winnable third round draw 

really "heavily rotated" is another way of asking "which teams are likely to give a damn if they get a tough draw before a PL or CL game?" 

obviously you would expect a heavily rotated Chelsea, Liverpool or Arsenal side to still be capable of winning this, but you are not getting much bang for your betting buck given the greater variance involved in the competition these days. I think back to a year ago when Lverpool were putting out a team with several 18 year olds in.

pre 3rd round market is

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/winner 

my shortlist

west ham, bournemouth, west brom, watford, burnley, Stoke, Everton, southampton on the criteria above. not going to the top 6, not going down. no real reason to rotate

i excluded.

everton at 28-1, want higher prices.
burnley at 100-1 away form.
southampton at 25-1. too short, history of rotating in odd spots in the FA Cup
west ham 50-1 drew man c in 3rd round.

leaving

bournemouth 50-1
stoke 40-1
watford 66-1
west brom 66-1

Three of these four are at home in the 3rd round to non PL opposition. Lets take out Bournemouth at Mllwall. Lets take out the lowest price of the three remaining Stoke

Leaves Watford and West Brom at 66-1. I particularly like West Brom of the two. We know form is good, we know Pulis can set up to be difficult to beat on any away draw. 8th in the league, realistically not going to hit top 6 and should want to have a run at this

All that said, opinions and alternatives welcome

in the meantime,

recommendations

£15 e/w WBA FA Cup 66-1
£10 e/w Watford FA Cup 66-1

e/w 1/2 1,2

[exstream]

Why not Bournemouth

[TightEnd]

Why not Bournemouth

made my final four. wanted 2. 3rd round away at Millwall, other three at home as explained above

[Doobs]

Why not Bournemouth

made my final four. wanted 2. 3rd round away at Millwall, other three at home as explained above

West Brom 4/5, Bournemouth 5/6 at the weekend.  Millwall are softer than Derby, so a bit swings and roundabouts.

Like your reasoning, so think we should definitely do both you wanted and possibly add Bournemouth.

Some prices my be fragile, so I wouldn't hang about.   

Ps If it was you that originally mentioned the Southampton schedule, thanks.  Eventually got round to opposing them yesterday.

[arbboy]

West brom cracking shout.  Similar to Stoke 5 years ago when TP was in charge.  You know he will take it seriously, very stale price given EPL position.   Worth more than £15 ew imo.  Would be a much stronger bet than Watford at the same price (edit Watford 75/1 at paddy's now)