Tips for Tikay

[ripple11]

Why not Bournemouth

made my final four. wanted 2. 3rd round away at Millwall, other three at home as explained above

Eddie will rotate at least 8/9 players from the team that plays tonight against Arsenal. Should be enough, given squad strength atm....but wont be easy at The Den. I wouldn't back them at odds on for this match, but as said, there are sound reasons for backing a decent cup run.

[ripple11]

West brom cracking shout.  Similar to Stoke 5 years ago when TP was in charge.  You know he will take it seriously, very stale price given EPL position.   Worth more than £15 ew imo.  Would be a much stronger bet than Watford at the same price (edit Watford 75/1 at paddy's now)

Agree strongly with West Brom too

[Woodsey]

Don't have enough expertise about the maths of all these things and whether the odds are worth it, but I think England will piss the six nations this year 5/6, they are 9/4 for the grand slam also.....

[rinswun]

Don't have enough expertise about the maths of all these things and whether the odds are worth it, but I think England will piss the six nations this year 5/6, they are 9/4 for the grand slam also.....

Not concerned about Ireland in Dublin? I think 3/1 Ireland is a great bet personally. If you look at circumstances and performances instead of focusing solely on results, there is a decent case to be made that Ireland are actually a better team at this point in time. English media would have you believe that this England team are approaching the 2003 vintage but in reality they are a long way from that. I like Eddie Jones a lot and he's doing a great job, but at the prices Ireland is the option.

[Woodsey]

Don't have enough expertise about the maths of all these things and whether the odds are worth it, but I think England will piss the six nations this year 5/6, they are 9/4 for the grand slam also.....

Not concerned about Ireland in Dublin? I think 3/1 Ireland is a great bet personally. If you look at circumstances and performances instead of focusing solely on results, there is a decent case to be made that Ireland are actually a better team at this point in time. English media would have you believe that this England team are approaching the 2003 vintage but in reality they are a long way from that. I like Eddie Jones a lot and he's doing a great job, but at the prices Ireland is the option.

I think Ireland are the only challenge, but I still think we will beat them, we are getting better every game. Fair enough about the odds mate, I think I understand them in single games but over a whole championship compared to the odds of the other teams I concede I'm not the best judge of that....

[tikay]

The FA Cup 3rd round is this weekend

We all know that the competition's standing has been marginalised in the Premier League/Champions League era

The result is usually heavily rotated Premier League teams throughout the competition and a much less predictable set of teams that go deep in the competition

Just looking at recent winners, you wouldn't see this: Arsenal, Arsenal, Man U are the last 3 winners

but if you just go back through the last four years and look at those who have made Wembley semi's

12-13 Millwall, Wigan
13-14 Wigan, Hull, Sheff U
14-15 Villa, Reading
15-16 Watford, Palace

last year Watford were 80-1 at this stage, Palace 66-1. (i backed Watford e/w a year ago this week and fell just short)

each way betting on the competition has completely opened up. Obviously there is a fair amount of luck in running needed in the round by round draws.

When looking at candidates for this year for value my check list went as follows

- avoid all teams in contention for the PL title and Champions league places. Particularly the sides still in the CL, midweek ties Feb onwards come after FA Cp weekends
- avoid all teams at risk of relegation. Won't give a toss about the FA Cup
- avoid championship teams going for the title or play-offs. as above.
- teams must have a winnable third round draw 

really "heavily rotated" is another way of asking "which teams are likely to give a damn if they get a tough draw before a PL or CL game?" 

obviously you would expect a heavily rotated Chelsea, Liverpool or Arsenal side to still be capable of winning this, but you are not getting much bang for your betting buck given the greater variance involved in the competition these days. I think back to a year ago when Lverpool were putting out a team with several 18 year olds in.

pre 3rd round market is

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/winner 

my shortlist

west ham, bournemouth, west brom, watford, burnley, Stoke, Everton, southampton on the criteria above. not going to the top 6, not going down. no real reason to rotate

i excluded.

everton at 28-1, want higher prices.
burnley at 100-1 away form.
southampton at 25-1. too short, history of rotating in odd spots in the FA Cup
west ham 50-1 drew man c in 3rd round.

leaving

bournemouth 50-1
stoke 40-1
watford 66-1
west brom 66-1

Three of these four are at home in the 3rd round to non PL opposition. Lets take out Bournemouth at Mllwall. Lets take out the lowest price of the three remaining Stoke

Leaves Watford and West Brom at 66-1. I particularly like West Brom of the two. We know form is good, we know Pulis can set up to be difficult to beat on any away draw. 8th in the league, realistically not going to hit top 6 and should want to have a run at this

All that said, opinions and alternatives welcome

in the meantime,

recommendations

£15 e/w WBA FA Cup 66-1
£10 e/w Watford FA Cup 66-1

e/w 1/2 1,2

Happy to go ahead as suggested Rich.

Great piece of research well thought out, too, if I may say so.

[TightEnd]

this was limited to £18.50 e/w at W H

West Brom FA Cup Winner
66/1 Each Way (2 Places at 1/2 Odds)
Total Stake: £37.00
Potential Returns: £1,868.50

no rush on watford or bournemouth, there may be better suggestions

[rinswun]

Don't have enough expertise about the maths of all these things and whether the odds are worth it, but I think England will piss the six nations this year 5/6, they are 9/4 for the grand slam also.....

Not concerned about Ireland in Dublin? I think 3/1 Ireland is a great bet personally. If you look at circumstances and performances instead of focusing solely on results, there is a decent case to be made that Ireland are actually a better team at this point in time. English media would have you believe that this England team are approaching the 2003 vintage but in reality they are a long way from that. I like Eddie Jones a lot and he's doing a great job, but at the prices Ireland is the option.

I think Ireland are the only challenge, but I still think we will beat them, we are getting better every game. Fair enough about the odds mate, I think I understand them in single games but over a whole championship compared to the odds of the other teams I concede I'm not the best judge of that....

See I'm not sure England are getting better every game and that's where I think improving Ireland have the edge. I thought they were awfully lacklustre against Australia for 50 mins before eventually pulling away from a team who had endured a long tour with lots of travel. Argentina were possibly even more knackered, even allowing for the early red as a leveller. They scrummaged England off the park too. The SA performance was decent enough albeit against limited opposition. I thought England were actually more impressive in the 2016 6N and the summer.

[Woodsey]

Don't have enough expertise about the maths of all these things and whether the odds are worth it, but I think England will piss the six nations this year 5/6, they are 9/4 for the grand slam also.....

Not concerned about Ireland in Dublin? I think 3/1 Ireland is a great bet personally. If you look at circumstances and performances instead of focusing solely on results, there is a decent case to be made that Ireland are actually a better team at this point in time. English media would have you believe that this England team are approaching the 2003 vintage but in reality they are a long way from that. I like Eddie Jones a lot and he's doing a great job, but at the prices Ireland is the option.

I think Ireland are the only challenge, but I still think we will beat them, we are getting better every game. Fair enough about the odds mate, I think I understand them in single games but over a whole championship compared to the odds of the other teams I concede I'm not the best judge of that....

See I'm not sure England are getting better every game and that's where I think improving Ireland have the edge. I thought they were awfully lacklustre against Australia for 50 mins before eventually pulling away from a team who had endured a long tour with lots of travel. Argentina were possibly even more knackered, even allowing for the early red as a leveller. They scrummaged England off the park too. The SA performance was decent enough albeit against limited opposition. I thought England were actually more impressive in the 2016 6N and the summer.

Fair enough, I must be blinded by pure faith 

[bergeroo]

Nice piece Tighty. I've hopped in West Brom.

How many changes to do you think Leicester will make at the weekend at Goodison Park? Everton currently evens.

Full list of current odds for the win in third round matches of the teams to consider using your reasoning
Watford 7/12
Stoke 4/6
West Brom 10/11
Bournemouth 10/11
Everton Evens
Southampton 13/10

[TightEnd]

Nice piece Tighty. I've hopped in West Brom.

How many changes to do you think Leicester will make at the weekend at Goodison Park? Everton currently evens.

Full list of current odds for the win in third round matches of the teams to consider using your reasoning
Watford 7/12
Stoke 4/6
West Brom 10/11
Bournemouth 10/11
Everton Evens
Southampton 13/10

last year (Spurs away) made 10 changes. drew at WHL, kept reserve team in and lost replay

this year might be a bit different. Vardy has been out all christmas, drinkwater will need a game etc.

so probably a mix and match team. i doubt i would name 6 or 7 of the 11 correctly with a gun to my head

[AndrewT]

Decent result for the Big Bash bet today as the last unbeaten team (Brisbane Heat) went down to the Sixers despite posting a score of 186.

Renegades now one of 4 teams with one defeat.

[DungBeetle]

Nice piece Tighty. I've hopped in West Brom.

How many changes to do you think Leicester will make at the weekend at Goodison Park? Everton currently evens.

Full list of current odds for the win in third round matches of the teams to consider using your reasoning
Watford 7/12
Stoke 4/6
West Brom 10/11
Bournemouth 10/11
Everton Evens
Southampton 13/10

Watford will field a 3rd team.  The team at Stoke tonight will be second string due to injuries (no Peryra, Success, Okaka, Janmaat, Behrami).   Cathcart half fit.  Amrabat and Guediora off to ACON. 

We'll very likely lose tonight and then manager will need to be beat Boro to keep job at home next up.  Can't see anything but the youth team verses Burton with a few of the comedy players the manager can't stand thrown in (Doucoure, Watson, Kabasele and maybe poor old Ighalo up front to try and get him a goal).

Forget laying Watford - I'd just take a punt on Burton.

[baldock92]

Love that West Brom bet. Cracking spot IMO, especially with Pulis in charge.

[Chompy]

Yep, am on board the Baggies express.