Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Sorry tighty didn't see you'd put up your analysis.  Just reporting that the feeling at Watford is that they very much are in a survival scrap despite the points buffer.  Our injury list is horrific this year so I can't see the Cup being given due importance to be honest.  That said if we do beat Burton and get a kind draw next round then some of the big guns may be back by the 5th round and it's game on.  At the moment I prefer Bournemouth.

[TightEnd]

Sorry tighty didn't see you'd put up your analysis.  Just reporting that the feeling at Watford is that they very much are in a survival scrap despite the points buffer.  Our injury list is horrific this year so I can't see the Cup being given due importance to be honest.  That said if we do beat Burton and get a kind draw next round then some of the big guns may be back by the 5th round and it's game on.  At the moment I prefer Bournemouth.

no problem, thanks for the feedback

we'll draw a line through Watford and keep considering Bournemouth or others

[exstream]

Too early to get on Anderson 8/1 for this years world champ

[arbboy]

Too early to get on Anderson 8/1 for this years world champ

Never too early for value.  He is virtually certain to be seeded 2 or 3 for next years worlds (opposite MVG until the final gtd) barring something incredible happening.  Just a stuipid ew price from the irish rofflers.   Problem is actually getting on.  They want to be bullish and have a view but never interested in laying their view.

Ando 4/1 to reach the final next year is close to a maximum bet.

http://www.pdc.tv/pdc-order-of-merit

Interesting new rankings with Taylor down at 6, Barney 10 and the big 'black hole' gap between 15/16 staying the same as the tankers keep avoiding landing in 16 or 17 to avoid running into mvg in the last 16 of every event.  The regressing bull and Wizard currently sitting in those spots for MVG to feast on to get to the 1/4s of the next major.  Whitlock too busy getting pissed and gambling to probably notice why his career is in freefall and Jenkins about to retire and too old school to care about tanking.

[muckthenuts]

Very early to call this but i personally think there's plenty to suggest backing the test match at the SCG between Australia and Pakistan as a draw at 9/2.

The first day pitch showed there's absolutely nothing in it for anyone. Australia batted extremely well on the first day but notably all their best batsmen are back in the pavilion, which means it's unlikely they are going to be able to rocket along again tomorrow and bat Pakistan completely out of the game.

Even so, seems very likely Pakistan will put on a comparable performance. After being embarrassed at Melbourne Misbah Ul Haq will be desperate to save some face in his final ever test match for his country. No way can they force a win after Australia's performance today, so they will likely look to play risk free cricket in their innings and salvage a draw. Azhar and Shafiq are stodgy batsmen in good form at the moment while Younis and Misbah both have points to prove, Younis is particular as he wants to stay in the team to get to his personal milestone of 10k test runs. As we saw in previous tests the tail runs pretty deep for Pakistan too, with Amir Yasir and Wahab all capable of holding the bat to some degree.

Add to this there is also some rain around on days 2 and 3...not too worried about overcast conditions as the kookaburra tends to swing a bit from overs 1-15 then just does nothing at all for the rest of its duration. Australia are also a pace bowler light which will help Pakistan a lot. The pitch is rumoured to be a turner but Pakistan are generally very very good players of spin, Melbourne aside where they were probably undone by panic rather than Nathan Lyon.

Australia can't lose this and the biggest obstacle to the match ending as a draw is Pakistan's torrid history in Australia and their own tendency to randomly collapse. I think though with the series sown up and Starc/Hazelwood having had a big workload lately they'll probably be a less of a threat over the next few days. Plus not too long ago Pakistan were the no.1 test side in the world so they should have the capability to see it out. They should have drawn the last test and came astonishingly close to saving the first one. I'm sure they'll all be very very motivated not to lose 3-0 here.

Tl;dr - a draw at 9/2 is worth a bet of £20 or so.

[TightEnd]

touching faith in the Pakistan top order -)

the problem i have is that Aus have scored at 4.1 an over, so are way ahead of the game, likely to get 600+ and have picked two spinners.

Sydney usually deteriorates.

whether 9/2 reflects the chances accurately, tough to tell. not many draws about these days and i think i would want bigger

[nellberg]

It's likely to spin fairly big on days 4 and 5, and I also think starc will get a bit of reverse also. Warner went at such a pace that I thought he'd taken the draw out of the equation tbf. The workload on the quick argument is fair enough.  not sure how much teams are putting in late doors in dead rubbers but that's the same for the Pakistani batsman.

[Chompy]

Sorry tighty didn't see you'd put up your analysis.  Just reporting that the feeling at Watford is that they very much are in a survival scrap despite the points buffer.  Our injury list is horrific this year so I can't see the Cup being given due importance to be honest.  That said if we do beat Burton and get a kind draw next round then some of the big guns may be back by the 5th round and it's game on.  At the moment I prefer Bournemouth.

9-1, 10-1 for the drop any interest?

[DungBeetle]

Sorry tighty didn't see you'd put up your analysis.  Just reporting that the feeling at Watford is that they very much are in a survival scrap despite the points buffer.  Our injury list is horrific this year so I can't see the Cup being given due importance to be honest.  That said if we do beat Burton and get a kind draw next round then some of the big guns may be back by the 5th round and it's game on.  At the moment I prefer Bournemouth.

9-1, 10-1 for the drop any interest?

I'd review after tonight.  Away at Stoke feels like a free shot game where the odds won't move much if we lose but will lengthen dramatically if we luckbox a 1-0 win (which is possible).

Burnley and Boro the next home games so that decides much I'd imagine.

[Karabiner]

Absolutely gutted having contemplated having a few quid on Charlie Daniels FGS @48 and not bothering.

[exstream]

https://mobile.twitter.com/GaryLineker/status/815939030777008128

[ripple11]

Absolutely gutted having contemplated having a few quid on Charlie Daniels FGS @48 and not bothering.

ul.....took it very well, great game.

[exstream]

Lol mike phelan sacked

[exstream]

Spurs favourites vs Chelsea
Pffft

[Doobs]

Spurs favourites vs Chelsea
Pffft

meh joint favourites.  Looks to be priced about right with Spurs at home?

Hull favourites vs Swansea in the FA Cup on Saturday.  Hull are at home.  The thing in Hull's favour is they can't have enough reserves to switch the whole team, where as Swansea probably do.   Guess we are sweating the team news.