Tips for Tikay

[Rod Paradise]

The top two in the Top Scotch Publeague scorer market are the wrong way round and too close together imo.

Don't see any way Dembele doesn't win this barring injury.

13-8 with Stoke rofflers.

totally agree the guy is 3 classes above anyone else in the league

Whoa - he's not 3 classes above a few of his teammates. Potentially a class above, but still learning.

I'm not sure the bookies are that wrong - ok Dembele's on a scoring tear at the moment but even then Scott Sinclair is 2 league goals ahead.

Dembele will be rested, subbed regularly, he's up and down to London seeing a specialist for his knee. Sinclair will play every game, every minute barring injury & while he's been more of a provider lately, he was showing signs of exasperation at not getting a goal yesterday. Also if Griffiths buckles down like he's been challenged to, he will get on, and when he does he and Dembele will be replacing each other.

If I had to say who I thought would be top scorer - I'd probably say Dembele, but I think it'll be close, and with Sinclair having a start I don't feel the bookies are that far out.

[Ironside]

Celtic team are a class above any other team in league Demble  seems on my limit views on a totally different level. Just glad we don't face him often, I think Demble will finish 4+ goals ahead of every other player as long as he starts in 75% of remaining league games

[arbboy]

9.02 Central Park, trap 1- 'out of chicago'

Slight bias as I part own her, but she is in form and tipped to win. Could be good ew bet. Will probably start at 9/4 or 7/4 at a guess

Cheers

no worries, trainer has very high hopes for her. surprised she went at 3/1, thats a steal given her form. hope a few got on her! glad my first 'tip' was a winner anyway!

Been out all afternoon/evening.  What price did the dog go off on bf given it was 3/1 sp?  Congrats btw!  nice selection.  Didn't lead early but won going away per the official result by 3 lengths.  VWP.

[arbboy]

How much longer do we have to wait for Tighty to ask for us to lock in Leicester at 40/1 to go down!!!!!  He loves a lock in usually more than Lord chomps.  I have been waiting for weeks for him to suggest it whilst also wanting to have the max (£1000) on Seville at 1/2 to qualify.  I know he wouldn't place it just out of his own personal interest but it really is a max bet.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/sevilla-v-leicester/to-qualify

4/9 labrokes can we have £900 to win £400 via a friend of blonde who can get on?  I just want to see if Tighty can have the lot on against his side when it makes total financial sense.  It was hard enough getting £50 at 40/1 on them to go down! I put this up as a big bet at 1/2 when adz returned but nothing was placed.  It is a much much better bet now at 4/9 than it was then at 1/2.  Would happily take 2/5 as well for £1000 to win £400 so we can get on anywhere so we don't have to have the 'we can't get on at lolbrokes excuses'.  This must be close to a 1/4 poke that is being held up by arbers and dreamers. 'lol champions of england'  You would back Stoke to beat Leics over two legs at 2/5 at the minute and know you have an edge.  Derby nearly did it ffs.

[BorntoBubble]

Arb you know Tikay is never going to want to bet to these levels, no matter how much the thread has made, that money has gone.

I think most thread regulars now understand BRM and bet accordingly to confidence in bets, i know i certainly do!

Hounding Tikay/Tighty to bet huge sums is a) never going to happen b) silly!

Saying something like Sevilla to qualify at 1/2 should really be 1/4 and therefore should be double max status is enough to make someone like me have a chunky bet.

But why not then suggest the thread has something sensible (sensible to tikay) like maybe £100 or £200?

I get that putting £50 on a 10/1 shot (that should be say 6/1) and £1000 on at 1/2 (which maybe should be 1/4) this in your head is the same but for Tikay it is not. £1,000 is still £1,000 and £50 is still 20 lattes.

[arbboy]

Arb you know Tikay is never going to want to bet to these levels, no matter how much the thread has made, that money has gone.

I think most thread regulars now understand BRM and bet accordingly to confidence in bets, i know i certainly do!

Hounding Tikay/Tighty to bet huge sums is a) never going to happen b) silly!

Saying something like Sevilla to qualify at 1/2 should really be 1/4 and therefore should be double max status is enough to make someone like me have a chunky bet.

But why not then suggest the thread has something sensible (sensible to tikay) like maybe £100 or £200?

I get that putting £50 on a 10/1 shot (that should be say 6/1) and £1000 on at 1/2 (which maybe should be 1/4) this in your head is the same but for Tikay it is not. £1,000 is still £1,000 and £50 is still 20 lattes.

Much less variance putting a grand on a 1/2 poke that should be 1/4 than having £50 on a 40/1 poke than should be 14/1.  Just to clarify.  The first one is a way better bet and has way less variance and is way more profitable.  Fred likes bragging about its £14k lifetime profits.  They don't fall out of the sky backing random £10 fgs's with the greatest of respect.  The vast majority of threads profits have come from spots like this circa channing/dubai/me/chompy/adz/Camel etc.  Dont' want to miss Hector out either.  Not a rub.

No one seems to mind last month when we reported a profit which was all due to Ando placing at 13/2 (£200 e/w).  Without that fred makes nothing last month.  Why are we scared of placing hugely ev bets which keep rolling in the profits year after year when we have a huge roll and can get on?  

People love bragging about profits fred makes but get shit scared of taking any risk when the vast majority of fred's profits have come from the high variance route (which isn't high variance but most people think it is like backing every horse int the opener at chelt in 2012 for example).  I have no problem betting in £10s and £20s but when fred is still £13k up in 2020 when we were £13k up in 2014 people will ask why right? 

If you want to bet like 99% of the world you will lose like 99% of the world.  Simple as.

[arbboy]

Anyway are we locking in the 40/1 Leicester or not?  haha!

[verndog158]

9.02 Central Park, trap 1- 'out of chicago'

Slight bias as I part own her, but she is in form and tipped to win. Could be good ew bet. Will probably start at 9/4 or 7/4 at a guess

Cheers

no worries, trainer has very high hopes for her. surprised she went at 3/1, thats a steal given her form. hope a few got on her! glad my first 'tip' was a winner anyway!

Been out all afternoon/evening.  What price did the dog go off on bf given it was 3/1 sp?  Congrats btw!  nice selection.  Didn't lead early but won going away per the official result by 3 lengths.  VWP.

i was surprised she went off at 3/1, current form and the way she has been running the Greyhound betting APP had her at 9/4 and knowing central park i would have expected her to maybe even come in to 7/4. her previous races she has won she has been a 5/4 fav and 5/2 etc so drifting out to really was a surprise. Didnt make it up there tonight, its about 45min drive and the other 2 dogs i have a share in arent running at the moment, (one trialing and one in season), so a fair trek for one race. We are expecting this one to go up to A1 at some point i think too. i had 20 ew on her so that pay for a couple months kennels at least! haha

[exstream]

9.02 Central Park, trap 1- 'out of chicago'

Slight bias as I part own her, but she is in form and tipped to win. Could be good ew bet. Will probably start at 9/4 or 7/4 at a guess

Cheers

no worries, trainer has very high hopes for her. surprised she went at 3/1, thats a steal given her form. hope a few got on her! glad my first 'tip' was a winner anyway!

Been out all afternoon/evening.  What price did the dog go off on bf given it was 3/1 sp?  Congrats btw!  nice selection.  Didn't lead early but won going away per the official result by 3 lengths.  VWP.

i was surprised she went off at 3/1, current form and the way she has been running the Greyhound betting APP had her at 9/4 and knowing central park i would have expected her to maybe even come in to 7/4. her previous races she has won she has been a 5/4 fav and 5/2 etc so drifting out to really was a surprise. Didnt make it up there tonight, its about 45min drive and the other 2 dogs i have a share in arent running at the moment, (one trialing and one in season), so a fair trek for one race. We are expecting this one to go up to A1 at some point i think too. i had 20 ew on her so that pay for a couple months kennels at least! haha

'Previous races she has won'
Where were your posts!

[exstream]

If £400 on a 13/2 shot happens maybe £900 on a 4/9 will

[verndog158]

9.02 Central Park, trap 1- 'out of chicago'

Slight bias as I part own her, but she is in form and tipped to win. Could be good ew bet. Will probably start at 9/4 or 7/4 at a guess

Cheers

no worries, trainer has very high hopes for her. surprised she went at 3/1, thats a steal given her form. hope a few got on her! glad my first 'tip' was a winner anyway!

Been out all afternoon/evening.  What price did the dog go off on bf given it was 3/1 sp?  Congrats btw!  nice selection.  Didn't lead early but won going away per the official result by 3 lengths.  VWP.

i was surprised she went off at 3/1, current form and the way she has been running the Greyhound betting APP had her at 9/4 and knowing central park i would have expected her to maybe even come in to 7/4. her previous races she has won she has been a 5/4 fav and 5/2 etc so drifting out to really was a surprise. Didnt make it up there tonight, its about 45min drive and the other 2 dogs i have a share in arent running at the moment, (one trialing and one in season), so a fair trek for one race. We are expecting this one to go up to A1 at some point i think too. i had 20 ew on her so that pay for a couple months kennels at least! haha

'Previous races she has won'
Where were your posts!

haha i didnt want to jump in here when i wasnt sure what she was like!

[arbboy]

9.02 Central Park, trap 1- 'out of chicago'

Slight bias as I part own her, but she is in form and tipped to win. Could be good ew bet. Will probably start at 9/4 or 7/4 at a guess

Cheers

no worries, trainer has very high hopes for her. surprised she went at 3/1, thats a steal given her form. hope a few got on her! glad my first 'tip' was a winner anyway!

Been out all afternoon/evening.  What price did the dog go off on bf given it was 3/1 sp?  Congrats btw!  nice selection.  Didn't lead early but won going away per the official result by 3 lengths.  VWP.

i was surprised she went off at 3/1, current form and the way she has been running the Greyhound betting APP had her at 9/4 and knowing central park i would have expected her to maybe even come in to 7/4. her previous races she has won she has been a 5/4 fav and 5/2 etc so drifting out to really was a surprise. Didnt make it up there tonight, its about 45min drive and the other 2 dogs i have a share in arent running at the moment, (one trialing and one in season), so a fair trek for one race. We are expecting this one to go up to A1 at some point i think too. i had 20 ew on her so that pay for a couple months kennels at least! haha

Never back ew on a dog race.  First bit of advice.  If you want to come and see me and i will offer you 1/3 1,2 rather than 1/4 1,2 and still have an edge over you in 95% of races at returned sp or opening show with the firms.  

CP is one of the few tracks i never get involved in because it has such few bags meetings and the ones it does are at poor times for volume on betfair and get no liquidity.

Congrats on tonight though but never EVER bet ew in a dog race at 1/4 1,2.  You are setting fire to money quicker than any other punting spot 95% of the time.  If you went up to a bookie at a track betting to the standard 130% on a 3/1 the field race and asked to bet one of the 3/1 shots ew at 1/4 1,2 he should struggle to keep a straight face whilst he hoovers your cash.

[verndog158]

9.02 Central Park, trap 1- 'out of chicago'

Slight bias as I part own her, but she is in form and tipped to win. Could be good ew bet. Will probably start at 9/4 or 7/4 at a guess

Cheers

no worries, trainer has very high hopes for her. surprised she went at 3/1, thats a steal given her form. hope a few got on her! glad my first 'tip' was a winner anyway!

Been out all afternoon/evening.  What price did the dog go off on bf given it was 3/1 sp?  Congrats btw!  nice selection.  Didn't lead early but won going away per the official result by 3 lengths.  VWP.

i was surprised she went off at 3/1, current form and the way she has been running the Greyhound betting APP had her at 9/4 and knowing central park i would have expected her to maybe even come in to 7/4. her previous races she has won she has been a 5/4 fav and 5/2 etc so drifting out to really was a surprise. Didnt make it up there tonight, its about 45min drive and the other 2 dogs i have a share in arent running at the moment, (one trialing and one in season), so a fair trek for one race. We are expecting this one to go up to A1 at some point i think too. i had 20 ew on her so that pay for a couple months kennels at least! haha

Never back ew on a dog race.  First bit of advice.  If you want to come and see me and i will offer you 1/3 1,2 rather than 1/4 1,2 and still have an edge over you in 95% of races at returned sp or opening show with the firms.  

CP is one of the few tracks i never get involved in because it has such few bags meetings and the ones it does are at poor times for volume on betfair and get no liquidity.

Congrats on tonight though but never EVER bet ew in a dog race at 1/4 1,2.  You are setting fire to money quicker than any other punting spot 95% of the time.  If you went up to a bookie at a track betting to the standard 130% on a 3/1 the field race and asked to bet one of the 3/1 shots ew at 1/4 1,2 he should struggle to keep a straight face whilst he hoovers your cash.

i dont know much about it admittedly, and i dont bet much. Was more a decent bet on one of my dogs at a good price!

[arbboy]

9.02 Central Park, trap 1- 'out of chicago'

Slight bias as I part own her, but she is in form and tipped to win. Could be good ew bet. Will probably start at 9/4 or 7/4 at a guess

Cheers

no worries, trainer has very high hopes for her. surprised she went at 3/1, thats a steal given her form. hope a few got on her! glad my first 'tip' was a winner anyway!

Been out all afternoon/evening.  What price did the dog go off on bf given it was 3/1 sp?  Congrats btw!  nice selection.  Didn't lead early but won going away per the official result by 3 lengths.  VWP.

i was surprised she went off at 3/1, current form and the way she has been running the Greyhound betting APP had her at 9/4 and knowing central park i would have expected her to maybe even come in to 7/4. her previous races she has won she has been a 5/4 fav and 5/2 etc so drifting out to really was a surprise. Didnt make it up there tonight, its about 45min drive and the other 2 dogs i have a share in arent running at the moment, (one trialing and one in season), so a fair trek for one race. We are expecting this one to go up to A1 at some point i think too. i had 20 ew on her so that pay for a couple months kennels at least! haha

Never back ew on a dog race.  First bit of advice.  If you want to come and see me and i will offer you 1/3 1,2 rather than 1/4 1,2 and still have an edge over you in 95% of races at returned sp or opening show with the firms.  

CP is one of the few tracks i never get involved in because it has such few bags meetings and the ones it does are at poor times for volume on betfair and get no liquidity.

Congrats on tonight though but never EVER bet ew in a dog race at 1/4 1,2.  You are setting fire to money quicker than any other punting spot 95% of the time.  If you went up to a bookie at a track betting to the standard 130% on a 3/1 the field race and asked to bet one of the 3/1 shots ew at 1/4 1,2 he should struggle to keep a straight face whilst he hoovers your cash.

i dont know much about it admittedly, and i dont bet much. Was more a decent bet on one of my dogs at a good price!

Win only on the dogs every time and always use betfair exchange 99% of the time as the price will be bigger betting to 100% than the 130%+ shows you get from the track.  Just trying to help you out. Feel free to ignore my advice if you want.  if you want to back ew just back win and place on the bf market and you will get much bigger place price (and probably win price)  on your dog. #morebangforyourbuck (loseslower.com)  I don't want to bore you and everyone else with the maths.  Just take my word for it.

[Lonohray2]

Lesson number one Fred taught me was the handicap fair fractions

6 Runners 1/4 odds for 2 places = 25%. Fair fraction = 40%!


Lesson number two looks to be buy greyhounds for sport, how much are your kennel fees if your bet covers a couple months worth?

Congrats on the win, make sure you're there for the A1 races 


--------------


I owe Fred £25 to my knowledge that I haven't settled - where's it going?