Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Taking a real flyer on a potential ante post bet for Cheltenham, before the Stat Pack take a closer look.

In the last 4 years Paul Nichols has really done well in the Fred Winter, two wins, 4 seconds, 1 3rd, 1 4th, 1 5th. Not bad, from 11 runners eh?!

The weights aren't out yet, but it almost feels like a bet opportunity.

He has two that take the eye at this stage. Dolos who ran ok behind the current Triumph Hurdle fav at Chepstow, without looking to be overly exerted. Clearly not a Triumph horse, but looked like it was there to get a tidy mark for this.

The real eyecatcher, however, is a horse called Chameron.

So far we have yet to see Chameron race in the UK, but he won both his races late last year in Auteuil.

I suspect Nichols feels he has a real machine, and is hoping to get a handy mark without showing his hand.

I could be well wide of the mark, but at 20-1 NRNB, if he takes his chance, once the stats boys notice him, I am sure he will go off a lot shorter than this. If he doesnt get in, or they go elsewhere, we get our money back.

Based on the Nichols M/O for this race, I would welcome others thoughts before we place a bet.

Difficult to have too much of an opinion on the horses ability but can't argue with Nichols record in the race

Anything in particular that makes you think the trainer is sweet on him?

No inside info, nothing I have read(tbh, I have won far more over the years trusting my own instincts than any inside info I have ever had, admittedly, this is all instinct and back knowledge). Just the horse profile, and the way Nichols has brought some of these French imports along for Festival success looks v familiar. If nothing else it should provide value on the day, or a back to lay oppo.

[Doobs]

Taking a real flyer on a potential ante post bet for Cheltenham, before the Stat Pack take a closer look.

In the last 4 years Paul Nichols has really done well in the Fred Winter, two wins, 4 seconds, 1 3rd, 1 4th, 1 5th. Not bad, from 11 runners eh?!

The weights aren't out yet, but it almost feels like a bet opportunity.

He has two that take the eye at this stage. Dolos who ran ok behind the current Triumph Hurdle fav at Chepstow, without looking to be overly exerted. Clearly not a Triumph horse, but looked like it was there to get a tidy mark for this.

The real eyecatcher, however, is a horse called Chameron.

So far we have yet to see Chameron race in the UK, but he won both his races late last year in Auteuil.

I suspect Nichols feels he has a real machine, and is hoping to get a handy mark without showing his hand.

I could be well wide of the mark, but at 20-1 NRNB, if he takes his chance, once the stats boys notice him, I am sure he will go off a lot shorter than this. If he doesnt get in, or they go elsewhere, we get our money back.

Based on the Nichols M/O for this race, I would welcome others thoughts before we place a bet.

i have nowhere to go with this

can someone help us out with Bet365? (£20 e/w?)

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/fred-winter-juvenile-novices-hurdle/winner

Booked

[HutchGF]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/borussia-dortmund-v-benfica/to-qualify

Thoughts on Borussia Dortmund to qualify at 2.1 on PP? Home advantage and 1-0 down after last night's leg. Unbeaten at home this season in the Bundesliga with a 19:5 goal record. Looks a good spot to me if we can get on.

The Irish mob actually took a decent sized bet on this from me. Fred can have up to £50 with me if it wishes.

no one has expressed a view either way, so we had better take it

£50 at 2.1 Dortmund?

£50 at 2.1, Dortmund to qualify.

Booked.

Hi Hutch,

Thanks for getting us on, & good luck us.

Send me your Bank Details by PM, & I'll square you up.

Square up after the match? Hopefully I'll be sending money your way sir.

[T_Mar]

Taking a real flyer on a potential ante post bet for Cheltenham, before the Stat Pack take a closer look.

In the last 4 years Paul Nichols has really done well in the Fred Winter, two wins, 4 seconds, 1 3rd, 1 4th, 1 5th. Not bad, from 11 runners eh?!

The weights aren't out yet, but it almost feels like a bet opportunity.

He has two that take the eye at this stage. Dolos who ran ok behind the current Triumph Hurdle fav at Chepstow, without looking to be overly exerted. Clearly not a Triumph horse, but looked like it was there to get a tidy mark for this.

The real eyecatcher, however, is a horse called Chameron.

So far we have yet to see Chameron race in the UK, but he won both his races late last year in Auteuil.

I suspect Nichols feels he has a real machine, and is hoping to get a handy mark without showing his hand.

I could be well wide of the mark, but at 20-1 NRNB, if he takes his chance, once the stats boys notice him, I am sure he will go off a lot shorter than this. If he doesnt get in, or they go elsewhere, we get our money back.

Based on the Nichols M/O for this race, I would welcome others thoughts before we place a bet.

Difficult to have too much of an opinion on the horses ability but can't argue with Nichols record in the race

Anything in particular that makes you think the trainer is sweet on him?

No inside info, nothing I have read(tbh, I have won far more over the years trusting my own instincts than any inside info I have ever had, admittedly, this is all instinct and back knowledge). Just the horse profile, and the way Nichols has brought some of these French imports along for Festival success looks v familiar. If nothing else it should provide value on the day, or a back to lay oppo.

 Being able to read between lines is half the battle, not my normal sort of bet but followed you in with a small interest 👍

[TightEnd]

for Samurai mainly, but as the Stoke price has completely gone i can't go with this

for reference, written by two of us

The Stoke-on-Trent Central By-Election

This takes place next Thursday following the resignation of Labour’s Tristam Hunt to become director of the V and A. Prompted by Neil, here’s a look at the by-election.

Stoke Central has been a one of the safest Labour seats since 1935. Even in the last two general elections with the party defeated nationally, Hunt won by more than 5,000 votes. In 2015 he was 16% clear of a virtually tied right wing vote at 39% compared to 22% each of UKIP and Conservative. That UKIP vote advanced significantly in a seat that had been a BNP target (8% in 2010)

Of course politics is in a different place in 2017 compared to 2010 and 2015. Stoke, an extremely deprived City, voted over 60% leave last June and is precisely the sort of area it is widely assumed that metropolitan Labour doesn’t connect with. Hence the primary media focus throughout the campaign has been the opportunity for UKIP to win.

New leader Paul Nuttall chose to run himself (he had to, really, in a winnable seat) and he has referred to the perceived lack of enthusiasm for Labour amongst its core supporters in the North and Midlands. As by-elections go, this is a high profile one.

For UKIP there are plenty of current downsides. A national poll released by ComRes last week was their first since immediately after last June’s referendum and showed an 8% swing from UKIP to Conservative (of course there is no sign in current polling that Labour has regained voters it lost to UKIP in 2015 yet) . This is logical enough, as the government’s Brexit strategy has become “harder” and moved away from the possibility of staying in the single market and more towards controlling borders, UKIP’s raison d’etre has weakened. Many UKIP supporters have been Eurosceptic Tories, now encouraged by government policies to “return home”. UKIP has collapsed across every council and parliamentary by-election since the referendum.

UKIP’s general problems also surround (lack of) organisation and (lack of) money. In by-elections under Farage and now it seems Nuttall they are skilled at grandstanding populist canvassing (photo ops with a fag and a pint, or on a soapbox wearing Harris tweed) rather than the nuts and bolts of getting the vote out. This is something a major party can do, it is what established constituency associations focus on. As some evidence of this UKIP has never won a postal vote in any constituency it has contested, and indeed has lost two by-elections (Heywood and Eastleigh) because of this. There is an Organisational bias to postal voting and it is estimated that Stoke so far has seen 6000 postal votes recorded which will be important. Clearly Trump proved you can win with a much worse ground game but this will be a tiny turnout election (the lowest turnout of any constituency at the 2015 General election) and the Asian vote will be solid Labour.

UKIP’s specific problems were shown into sharp relief this week by the understandably high profile Hillsborough admissions by their leader and candidate, which carry far more impact than the row over whether he lives in his new abode in the constituency or not. Furthermore Farage has refused to go to the constituency in the last week due to the involvement of Patrick O'Flynn and Lisa Duffy who was 2nd in the leadership election before last (who works for O'Flynn) and Nuttall has not put the hours in spending around seven or eight days of the election in London and missing a couple of hustings.

All that said, a potential difficulty in Labour retaining the seat has been the Conservatives selecting a callow candidate and only making perfunctory effort in Stoke in large part to concentrate resources on the Copeland by-election on the same day which they think they will win thus allowing the potential for UKIP to consolidate the right wing vote that split so evenly last time.

Then there are the Liberal Democrats. The evidence from Richmond and very many council by-elections is that they are really benefitting from an unambiguous pro-Remain/ second referendum stance. Last time in Stoke they were almost wiped out, down at 4% from 22% in 2010 and it doesn’t necessarily follow that they won’t do well this time in a Pro-leave area. A 30-40% remain vote from 2015, were it to be in part attracted to the Lib Dems, would see a strong rebound.

The downsides for the Lib Dems are a) they have a part-time candidate in Dr Zulfiqar Ali a consultant cardiologist. Being a sad nerd I found myself watching Midlands Sunday politics last weekend where a reporter, on visiting the constituency office last mid-week was told that Dr Ali couldn’t campaign for a few days as he was conducting heart surgeries. b) This is not prosperous leafy Richmond. The electorate here is relatively young and 14% are in full-time education. The area has suffered from austerity and in the recent past of 2010-2015 the Lib Dems can still be pinned for this
.
Turning back to Labour, I will offer a personal opinion that the candidate Gareth Snell is unimpressive and his social media history is causing problems (note for future by-election selections: Candidates agree to delete historic tweets if they get the nod). At least he is a local councillor. Picking a candidate with local credentials was an absolute must for Labour given the party history of parachuting Hunt into Stoke against the wishes of the local party and with Nuttall striding in from Merseyside.

Looking once more at the bigger picture, how the Labour party’s decision to vote for Article 50 affects the result next week is the big unknowable in predicting the result. Looking at it logically, it is likely to be seen as a negative for “remain” Labour (and the 50 or so rebel votes in the commons from remain constituencies suggests as much) and a potential boon for the lib dems in lib dem/labour marginals. Here though, in “heartland” Labour with a leave bias, the decision to vote for Article 50 can’t be seen as a negative even allowing for the big strategic problem Labour has as to how to reconcile its two support bases.

Betting markets have this as a two horse race: Labour 4/6 UKIP 6/4, 33/1 bar. Labour have fared well in some other by-elections since the last general election, winning the five safe seats that they have defended. Labour were sitting at a very backable 10/11 until Nuttall’s Hillsborough admissions in the early part of this week, at which point the price went unsurprisingly.

Even so, Labour are 4/6 and Neil has them a 2/5 shot.

(Lab now 4/7)

[tikay]

for Samurai mainly, but as the Stoke price has completely gone i can't go with this

for reference, written by two of us

The Stoke-on-Trent Central By-Election

This takes place next Thursday following the resignation of Labour’s Tristam Hunt to become director of the V and A. Prompted by Neil, here’s a look at the by-election.

Stoke Central has been a one of the safest Labour seats since 1935. Even in the last two general elections with the party defeated nationally, Hunt won by more than 5,000 votes. In 2015 he was 16% clear of a virtually tied right wing vote at 39% compared to 22% each of UKIP and Conservative. That UKIP vote advanced significantly in a seat that had been a BNP target (8% in 2010)

Of course politics is in a different place in 2017 compared to 2010 and 2015. Stoke, an extremely deprived City, voted over 60% leave last June and is precisely the sort of area it is widely assumed that metropolitan Labour doesn’t connect with. Hence the primary media focus throughout the campaign has been the opportunity for UKIP to win.

New leader Paul Nuttall chose to run himself (he had to, really, in a winnable seat) and he has referred to the perceived lack of enthusiasm for Labour amongst its core supporters in the North and Midlands. As by-elections go, this is a high profile one.

For UKIP there are plenty of current downsides. A national poll released by ComRes last week was their first since immediately after last June’s referendum and showed an 8% swing from UKIP to Conservative (of course there is no sign in current polling that Labour has regained voters it lost to UKIP in 2015 yet) . This is logical enough, as the government’s Brexit strategy has become “harder” and moved away from the possibility of staying in the single market and more towards controlling borders, UKIP’s raison d’etre has weakened. Many UKIP supporters have been Eurosceptic Tories, now encouraged by government policies to “return home”. UKIP has collapsed across every council and parliamentary by-election since the referendum.

UKIP’s general problems also surround (lack of) organisation and (lack of) money. In by-elections under Farage and now it seems Nuttall they are skilled at grandstanding populist canvassing (photo ops with a fag and a pint, or on a soapbox wearing Harris tweed) rather than the nuts and bolts of getting the vote out. This is something a major party can do, it is what established constituency associations focus on. As some evidence of this UKIP has never won a postal vote in any constituency it has contested, and indeed has lost two by-elections (Heywood and Eastleigh) because of this. There is an Organisational bias to postal voting and it is estimated that Stoke so far has seen 6000 postal votes recorded which will be important. Clearly Trump proved you can win with a much worse ground game but this will be a tiny turnout election (the lowest turnout of any constituency at the 2015 General election) and the Asian vote will be solid Labour.

UKIP’s specific problems were shown into sharp relief this week by the understandably high profile Hillsborough admissions by their leader and candidate, which carry far more impact than the row over whether he lives in his new abode in the constituency or not. Furthermore Farage has refused to go to the constituency in the last week due to the involvement of Patrick O'Flynn and Lisa Duffy who was 2nd in the leadership election before last (who works for O'Flynn) and Nuttall has not put the hours in spending around seven or eight days of the election in London and missing a couple of hustings.

All that said, a potential difficulty in Labour retaining the seat has been the Conservatives selecting a callow candidate and only making perfunctory effort in Stoke in large part to concentrate resources on the Copeland by-election on the same day which they think they will win thus allowing the potential for UKIP to consolidate the right wing vote that split so evenly last time.

Then there are the Liberal Democrats. The evidence from Richmond and very many council by-elections is that they are really benefitting from an unambiguous pro-Remain/ second referendum stance. Last time in Stoke they were almost wiped out, down at 4% from 22% in 2010 and it doesn’t necessarily follow that they won’t do well this time in a Pro-leave area. A 30-40% remain vote from 2015, were it to be in part attracted to the Lib Dems, would see a strong rebound.

The downsides for the Lib Dems are a) they have a part-time candidate in Dr Zulfiqar Ali a consultant cardiologist. Being a sad nerd I found myself watching Midlands Sunday politics last weekend where a reporter, on visiting the constituency office last mid-week was told that Dr Ali couldn’t campaign for a few days as he was conducting heart surgeries. b) This is not prosperous leafy Richmond. The electorate here is relatively young and 14% are in full-time education. The area has suffered from austerity and in the recent past of 2010-2015 the Lib Dems can still be pinned for this
.
Turning back to Labour, I will offer a personal opinion that the candidate Gareth Snell is unimpressive and his social media history is causing problems (note for future by-election selections: Candidates agree to delete historic tweets if they get the nod). At least he is a local councillor. Picking a candidate with local credentials was an absolute must for Labour given the party history of parachuting Hunt into Stoke against the wishes of the local party and with Nuttall striding in from Merseyside.

Looking once more at the bigger picture, how the Labour party’s decision to vote for Article 50 affects the result next week is the big unknowable in predicting the result. Looking at it logically, it is likely to be seen as a negative for “remain” Labour (and the 50 or so rebel votes in the commons from remain constituencies suggests as much) and a potential boon for the lib dems in lib dem/labour marginals. Here though, in “heartland” Labour with a leave bias, the decision to vote for Article 50 can’t be seen as a negative even allowing for the big strategic problem Labour has as to how to reconcile its two support bases.

Betting markets have this as a two horse race: Labour 4/6 UKIP 6/4, 33/1 bar. Labour have fared well in some other by-elections since the last general election, winning the five safe seats that they have defended. Labour were sitting at a very backable 10/11 until Nuttall’s Hillsborough admissions in the early part of this week, at which point the price went unsurprisingly.

Even so, Labour are 4/6 and Neil has them a 2/5 shot.

(Lab now 4/7)

You write wonderfully well, Rich. The  price has gone, & I don't have even a passing interest in Politics, but that was thoroughly readable

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/borussia-dortmund-v-benfica/to-qualify

Thoughts on Borussia Dortmund to qualify at 2.1 on PP? Home advantage and 1-0 down after last night's leg. Unbeaten at home this season in the Bundesliga with a 19:5 goal record. Looks a good spot to me if we can get on.

The Irish mob actually took a decent sized bet on this from me. Fred can have up to £50 with me if it wishes.

no one has expressed a view either way, so we had better take it

£50 at 2.1 Dortmund?

£50 at 2.1, Dortmund to qualify.

Booked.

Hi Hutch,

Thanks for getting us on, & good luck us.

Send me your Bank Details by PM, & I'll square you up.

Square up after the match? Hopefully I'll be sending money your way sir.

Well that would be rather nice, yes.

OK, square up after the game. Remind me, please, I'm apt to forget these things.

"Sir"? Makes me sound old.

[samurai]

Really interesting write up Tight End thanks very much. I'm quite surprised at the level of support UKIP are still getting which I guess is great for Labour backers. Personally I couldn't have UKIP on my mind particularly after the Nuttall shenanigans. Agree re the Labour candidate, I would worry backing them at too short a price because of him and of course the Corbyn factor.
I think the postal votes will probably see Labour home ultimately but it will be intersting to see how the Lib Dems fare.

Any views on Copeland?

[TightEnd]

Really interesting write up Tight End thanks very much. I'm quite surprised at the level of support UKIP are still getting which I guess is great for Labour backers. Personally I couldn't have UKIP on my mind particularly after the Nuttall shenanigans. Agree re the Labour candidate, I would worry backing them at too short a price because of him and of course the Corbyn factor.
I think the postal votes will probably see Labour home ultimately but it will be intersting to see how the Lib Dems fare.

Any views on Copeland?

Copeland is 2/5 Con 11/4 Lab

irrespective of the result, i think it will be much closer than that. would take a stab at a majority of sub 1000 either way

the local NHS issue has got major play up there.

the Lab-Lab double is 100/30 if you think Stoke is in the bag and want to have a pop at Copeland

[samurai]

Thanks. Might have a look at that. I think Copeland may be a litttle like Eatleigh in the last Parliament in that the Tories may struggle in a By-election due to local factors but win it in a General. We shall see

[TightEnd]

Thanks. Might have a look at that. I think Copeland may be a litttle like Eatleigh in the last Parliament in that the Tories may struggle in a By-election due to local factors but win it in a General. We shall see

mind you i bet Labour are thrilled that Blair is on the national news putting the Remain case so forcefully with two by-elections in leave areas in five days time.

[T_Mar]

Know nothing about politics, but if Neils price is right can't we still have a (slightly smaller) bet at 4/7?

[BigAdz]

Taking a real flyer on a potential ante post bet for Cheltenham, before the Stat Pack take a closer look.

In the last 4 years Paul Nichols has really done well in the Fred Winter, two wins, 4 seconds, 1 3rd, 1 4th, 1 5th. Not bad, from 11 runners eh?!

The weights aren't out yet, but it almost feels like a bet opportunity.

He has two that take the eye at this stage. Dolos who ran ok behind the current Triumph Hurdle fav at Chepstow, without looking to be overly exerted. Clearly not a Triumph horse, but looked like it was there to get a tidy mark for this.

The real eyecatcher, however, is a horse called Chameron.

So far we have yet to see Chameron race in the UK, but he won both his races late last year in Auteuil.

I suspect Nichols feels he has a real machine, and is hoping to get a handy mark without showing his hand.

I could be well wide of the mark, but at 20-1 NRNB, if he takes his chance, once the stats boys notice him, I am sure he will go off a lot shorter than this. If he doesnt get in, or they go elsewhere, we get our money back.

Based on the Nichols M/O for this race, I would welcome others thoughts before we place a bet.

Difficult to have too much of an opinion on the horses ability but can't argue with Nichols record in the race

Anything in particular that makes you think the trainer is sweet on him?

No inside info, nothing I have read(tbh, I have won far more over the years trusting my own instincts than any inside info I have ever had, admittedly, this is all instinct and back knowledge). Just the horse profile, and the way Nichols has brought some of these French imports along for Festival success looks v familiar. If nothing else it should provide value on the day, or a back to lay oppo.

To give this a little more substance, Nichols followed a similar route with Diego du Charmil to win this race last year, on first run over here who went off a well supported 13/2.

And I think he pulled another stroke like this with Aux Ptits Soin in the Coral Cup the year before, who won at 9-1 with no British form.

Fingers crossed we have latched onto the next one!

[DMorgan]

Nice write up Rich

You definitely want to be getting involved at 4/7 if you make it a true 2/5 shot. Thats a 12% edge.

[arbboy]

Nice write up Rich

You definitely want to be getting involved at 4/7 if you make it a true 2/5 shot. Thats a 12% edge.

Why didn't we get involved earler in the week?  I assume that write up was for BE free tips weekend column but was scraped because the price has moved so much?  Very good write up btw.  Like Tikay said a most enjoyable read especially for someone who lives in the area. My gym is located bang in the middle of Stoke Central and i have spent a fair few hours in the steam room and sauna this week discussing this with the locals and there isn't a great deal of love for Nuttall even though the vast majority of the people i have spoke to are Daily Mail types at the upper socio-economic end of the scale in the area.  There was one awkward moment during my 'research' where a couple of middle aged male racist stokies were saying 'Nuttall is going to send all the pakis and foreigners home' and they didn't realise there was a young born and bred British Asian lad fast asleep lying down on the top shelf in the Sauna!  Time for a sharp exit at that point as per the old Harp lager adverts!

I think Labour are still a bet at 2/5 tbh and would't have any problem going in close to max at 4/7 if i wasn't already on much bigger earlier in the week for as much as i want.