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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13331063 times)
exstream
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« Reply #125955 on: February 22, 2017, 06:07:38 PM »

https://www.twitch.tv/esl_lol

G2 first game up next.


H2K, a European team up later today against ROX Tigers (Korean)
H2K third best team in Europe though and it is a best of 3, 11/8, hmm, not recommending it meh
« Last Edit: February 22, 2017, 06:09:09 PM by exstream » Logged
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« Reply #125956 on: February 22, 2017, 07:07:40 PM »

https://www.twitch.tv/esl_lol

G2 first game up next.


H2K, a European team up later today against ROX Tigers (Korean)
H2K third best team in Europe though and it is a best of 3, 11/8, hmm, not recommending it meh

Are we gg? No idea what's going on except 6-1 down doesn't sound great
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« Reply #125957 on: February 22, 2017, 07:08:32 PM »

G2 getting wrecked, game doesn't matter in regards to winning tournament outright I guess but going to lose this game vs FW.
Then again, they are 8/1 inplay and only 3k down in gold, if they stall this game out, they have the better team.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2017, 07:11:10 PM by exstream » Logged
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« Reply #125958 on: February 22, 2017, 07:14:05 PM »

G2 getting wrecked, game doesn't matter in regards to winning tournament outright I guess but going to lose this game vs FW.
Then again, they are 8/1 inplay and only 3k down in gold, if they stall this game out, they have the better team.

Chatbox seeming to suggest G2 are "on vacation LUL" or something like that. Never mind, onto the next sweat Smiley
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« Reply #125959 on: February 22, 2017, 07:24:08 PM »

Will still win the tournament!
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« Reply #125960 on: February 22, 2017, 08:33:34 PM »

Test series between India v Australia starts in the early hours of tomorrow morning, India strong favourites. Any love for a Aussie bashing?

India 3-0 and 4-0 are the favoured correct scores (both 3/1), even money dutched. Bet Viv go 23/20 for India -2.5, the same bet. I don't give the Aussies much of a chance, and they can fall in a heap vs spin so I went 4-0 but if you wanted to get 1 draw onside also the handicap market is an option?

There is another way to back India 4-0. India are 4/6 to win the 1st test, to only be 3/1 for 4-0 they'd have to be super short for the other 3 tests. So you could just roll the money on from one test to the next.

India's top 5 all average 40+ at home, they have 3 very good spin all-rounders and improving quicks. By contrast, 2 of the the Aussie top order (Renshaw and Handscomb) are inexperienced in the conditions. Smith Averages 40 by Warner has struggled in Asia. S.Marsh has a good record in 3 tests in Sri Lanka but blows hot and cold and is a constant injury worry. The Aussies are already fretting about the pitches, playing 1 specialist seamer is a plan they've considered here. Spin-wise, Lyon and O'Keefe are a long way off the standard of Ashwin and Jadeja.

Thoughts?

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« Reply #125961 on: February 22, 2017, 08:43:22 PM »

3/1 for 3-0 or 4-0 is printing money surely. I can't see anything other than the Aussies getting dicked. We got pumped and we are a better side than the Aussies.
They haven't lost a home test in 4 years and can't see the Aussies v v average spinners changing that
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« Reply #125962 on: February 22, 2017, 08:56:15 PM »

3/1 for 3-0 or 4-0 is printing money surely. I can't see anything other than the Aussies getting dicked. We got pumped and we are a better side than the Aussies.
They haven't lost a home test in 4 years and can't see the Aussies v v average spinners changing that

3/1 is for each scoreline, not combined. -2.5 on the handi is the equivalent of dutching the 2 scorelines at 23/20. Yeh, I think we're a better side in these conditions then the Aussies, and we aren't very good out there. India have won 17 out of thier last 20 at home (drew other 3). Aussies lost 9 on the belt in Asia, inc 4-0 here last time
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« Reply #125963 on: February 22, 2017, 11:30:45 PM »

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league

Darts tomorrow!

All aboard Peter Wright?

Leave the draws to Arb, but figured 15/4 draw in Chisnall Klassen is big, recc £3 on that
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« Reply #125964 on: February 23, 2017, 12:01:42 AM »

Do we no longer get e-mail alerts for PM's?
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« Reply #125965 on: February 23, 2017, 01:04:03 AM »

Winter Derby, Lingfield, Saturday

There must have been a lot of money for Mutakayeff over the last few days, since its price has been hammered in from 5/2 into 11/8 at best but mostly 5/4. This Al Maktoum gelding trained by Haggas has been off the track since last September, but has gone out and won fresh before. But not on the AW, and most recently its been competing over 8f rather than 10f. In addition, he's giving 5lb to the field. The price seems far too short for me, and it perhaps presents an opportunity to back an alternative at a better price than expected.

Interestingly, Battalion was formerly trained by Haggas until 3 races ago. Jamie Osborne quickly got the horse into stride. Winning 2 of those 3 races over 10f on the Lingfield AW, the second of which was in Listed company. Both were impressive wins. Most recently, he was 3rd in a race when denied a clear run in the home straight, but looked to have lots in hand and was only beaten ~1.5L - again in Listed company. The handicapper put Battalion up 2lbs for this run, but that looks generous for a gelding that is still improving, proven on the track (4 wins in total) and distance, and getting 5lbs against a favourite that has questions to answer about the track if not the distance.

Given a ride that puts him in better position for a late run, I think Battalion at 9/2 generally available is a good bet, particularly if Willie Carson is back in the plate.

Open to other views, but happy to recommend £20 to win at 9/2
« Last Edit: February 23, 2017, 01:16:16 AM by 4KSuited » Logged
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« Reply #125966 on: February 23, 2017, 01:39:41 AM »

Do we no longer get e-mail alerts for PM's?

Should be - I'm still getting them, Ralph.
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« Reply #125967 on: February 23, 2017, 04:48:53 AM »

Not seen many bets on Women's Golf so thought I would offer the following.

This week sees the Honda LPGA Thailand and there's a few bets I like.

£25 E/W Lexi Thompson, 14/1 , 12/1 several firms

£30 Pornanong Phatlum (great name) top 10 Finish, 10/3 Sky, 11/4 BV, Lad, Cora

£10 E/W Haru Nomura, 33/1 everywhere, 40/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/honda-lpga-thailand/winner

And now read on if you want an essay of Antesque proportions.

Lexi Thompson won this last year by six shots, smashing two 64's in the process. It's fair to say that Lexi has had putter problems and would have won quite a few more tournaments if she had sunk the putts. This year she's played once in the Pure Silk Bahamas LPGA Classic where she lost in a play off. To say she was unlucky would be an understatement.

Brittany Lincicome started off like a train shooting 17 under for the first two rounds including an ace on the 12th in the second round. As you can tell the conditions were fantastic for a links course. Inexplicably she then shot a four under, third round to leave her in fourth place. This eventually won her the tournament.

A storm was forecast for the fourth round so the officials sent them out in threeballs. Lincicome went out in the penultimate group and shot a decent five under including birdieing the par five last. Thompson, in the last group, was going along nicely when the storm appeared. She had been overnight leader at 23 under and had got to 26 under by the eighth. The last two holes had palm trees bending at 60 degree angles and she, along with Stacy Lewis and Gerina Pillar, could only par in. They had fallen behind the previous group after Lewis had a triple bogey on the 14th and had taken an age to complete the hole.

Had the storm blown in half hour after it did the Thompson would probably have been sat in the bar with everyone toasting her as the new champion. As it was she went out against Linicome in a play off and lost.

The main talking point though was Lexi's putting. She has in the past had her Caddy line up putts for her and has changed her grip a few times. In the Bahamas she took sole control and sank several decent length putts.

With that in mind and last years showing I can't see why she's fourth favourite?

Pornanong Phatlum has had a T5 and T7 in her two starts this year. She sailed pretty much under the radar in the Bahamas. With the top four, 4 to 5 shots clear of the field at the beginning of the last round she shot a credible 6 under but was never in with a chance of reaching those in front.

At the Australian Open she was tied for the lead starting the final round but capitulated in startling fashion, dropping six shots in nine holes. A late rally of two birdies at 15 and 17 saw her come in at tied seventh with another six players.

What was apparent in the final round was the nervousness of the leading contenders. At one stage there was only one previous tour winner in the first ten. Ariya Jutanugarn, a five time winner last year, made a late rush up the leader board and when she posted a six under total in the club house it was starting to look good enough for at least another play off. Then Ha Na Jang happened.
Three birdies and an eagle in the last six holes saw the previous tour winner post a winning ten under total.

I'm hoping Pornanong has taken the positives from her last few holes and is ready to shoot another top ten finish. Her lack of a tour win under her belt puts me off the general 40/1 to win it. She's easy to spot by the way, she has pink balls!

Haru Nomura is another horses for courses pick. She was T5 last year, albeit a long way back on 11 under and T13 the year before. She has a couple of tour wins including the Australian Open in 2016. This year She's started with a T3 in the Oz Open, a 2 over first round 75 ultimately ruining her chances.

If she can get a decent start then I would fancy her to be in the mix up at the business end of the tournament and being a previous tour winner does seem to have a big factor coming down the stretch in the Women's game.

Of course Thailand's prodigious, Ariya Jutanugarn will probably run away with it but she hasn't done particularly well in her home tournament before. And why Shanshan Feng is favourite is a bit of a mystery? She had a great end to 2016 but hasn't started as yet for 2017 unless she's been winning some PGA tournaments which I've missed?

So there you have it, good luck if you have a dabble and well done if you read it all.


thanks, i like long detailed write ups


Such a dangerous precedent.

Some of us might decide to take full advantage in the future for old times sake    Grin
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« Reply #125968 on: February 23, 2017, 09:36:00 AM »

Not seen many bets on Women's Golf so thought I would offer the following.

This week sees the Honda LPGA Thailand and there's a few bets I like.

£25 E/W Lexi Thompson, 14/1 SJ, 12/1 several firms

£30 Pornanong Phatlum (great name) top 10 Finish, 10/3 Sky, 11/4 BV, Lad, Cora

£10 E/W Haru Nomura, 33/1 everywhere, 40/1 SJ

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/honda-lpga-thailand/winner

And now read on if you want an essay of Antesque proportions.

Lexi Thompson won this last year by six shots, smashing two 64's in the process. It's fair to say that Lexi has had putter problems and would have won quite a few more tournaments if she had sunk the putts. This year she's played once in the Pure Silk Bahamas LPGA Classic where she lost in a play off. To say she was unlucky would be an understatement.

Brittany Lincicome started off like a train shooting 17 under for the first two rounds including an ace on the 12th in the second round. As you can tell the conditions were fantastic for a links course. Inexplicably she then shot a four under, third round to leave her in fourth place. This eventually won her the tournament.

A storm was forecast for the fourth round so the officials sent them out in threeballs. Lincicome went out in the penultimate group and shot a decent five under including birdieing the par five last. Thompson, in the last group, was going along nicely when the storm appeared. She had been overnight leader at 23 under and had got to 26 under by the eighth. The last two holes had palm trees bending at 60 degree angles and she, along with Stacy Lewis and Gerina Pillar, could only par in. They had fallen behind the previous group after Lewis had a triple bogey on the 14th and had taken an age to complete the hole.

Had the storm blown in half hour after it did the Thompson would probably have been sat in the bar with everyone toasting her as the new champion. As it was she went out against Linicome in a play off and lost.

The main talking point though was Lexi's putting. She has in the past had her Caddy line up putts for her and has changed her grip a few times. In the Bahamas she took sole control and sank several decent length putts.

With that in mind and last years showing I can't see why she's fourth favourite?

Pornanong Phatlum has had a T5 and T7 in her two starts this year. She sailed pretty much under the radar in the Bahamas. With the top four, 4 to 5 shots clear of the field at the beginning of the last round she shot a credible 6 under but was never in with a chance of reaching those in front.

At the Australian Open she was tied for the lead starting the final round but capitulated in startling fashion, dropping six shots in nine holes. A late rally of two birdies at 15 and 17 saw her come in at tied seventh with another six players.

What was apparent in the final round was the nervousness of the leading contenders. At one stage there was only one previous tour winner in the first ten. Ariya Jutanugarn, a five time winner last year, made a late rush up the leader board and when she posted a six under total in the club house it was starting to look good enough for at least another play off. Then Ha Na Jang happened.
Three birdies and an eagle in the last six holes saw the previous tour winner post a winning ten under total.

I'm hoping Pornanong has taken the positives from her last few holes and is ready to shoot another top ten finish. Her lack of a tour win under her belt puts me off the general 40/1 to win it. She's easy to spot by the way, she has pink balls!

Haru Nomura is another horses for courses pick. She was T5 last year, albeit a long way back on 11 under and T13 the year before. She has a couple of tour wins including the Australian Open in 2016. This year She's started with a T3 in the Oz Open, a 2 over first round 75 ultimately ruining her chances.

If she can get a decent start then I would fancy her to be in the mix up at the business end of the tournament and being a previous tour winner does seem to have a big factor coming down the stretch in the Women's game.

Of course Thailand's prodigious, Ariya Jutanugarn will probably run away with it but she hasn't done particularly well in her home tournament before. And why Shanshan Feng is favourite is a bit of a mystery? She had a great end to 2016 but hasn't started as yet for 2017 unless she's been winning some PGA tournaments which I've missed?

So there you have it, good luck if you have a dabble and well done if you read it all.


Play got under way at 11am local, which was silly am here, & we seem to be off to a bright start.

A handful of players have completed their round & are on -5.

Hara Nomura - 3 under after 16.

Lexi Thompson - 3 under after 14.

Pornanong Phatlum - E after 14.  



There is a scoreboard here, though there may be a better one elsewhere;

http://www.lpga.com/tournaments/honda-lpga-thailand/leaderboard

« Last Edit: February 23, 2017, 09:40:16 AM by tikay » Logged

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« Reply #125969 on: February 23, 2017, 10:32:27 AM »

Just a brief update RE Copeland by-election. Labour who we have backed are now available to lay at 3.1 having shortened a bit more overnight.
Anyone able to bet with Patrick might consider taking the 3/1 available there.


and in Stoke Tories were at 50/1 last week are now as low as 6/1!

Two very interesting by elections tomorrow.

If the tories get in Stoke Central the game is well and truly gone.  One of the most insane gambles in history even allowing for Nuttall being twenty times a bigger idiot than anyone first thought over the past few weeks or it tells you everything you need to know about Corbs.

The 4/7 Labour is well under on betfair and looks an absolute gift to me given everything that has gone on in the last 2 weeks.  This is a maximum bet for those who can get on for me.  Firms can only be offering 4/7 now because it 'suits to lay' based on their liabs on the big tory gamble.  Some firms are as short as 6/1 when they are 14/1 on bf.  Nuttall was asked to name the individual towns which make up Stoke as a city and he failed terribly.  His prep for this alongside his PR have been so bad it is hard to believe.

If you do your money here you can celebrate (with Woodsey) knowing you probably won't see another Labour government in your lifetime.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/winning-party

i wasn't around yesterday and now polls are open the markets are down which is standard

good luck us today (Copeland and Stoke)
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