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Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 13578124 times)
nellberg
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 765
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #126930 on:
April 04, 2017, 12:06:27 AM »
Quote from: doubleup on April 04, 2017, 12:04:08 AM
Quote from: nellberg on April 03, 2017, 11:50:23 PM
I know I should probably know this but ..
7/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4
or
6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5
6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5 is slightly better, but assuming that this is a favourite in a golf tournament, the extra place is worth slightly less, so not much in it imo
cricket, IPL outright top batsman. With Kohli possibly missing chunks of the season I'm keen to back Warner.
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nellberg
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 765
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #126931 on:
April 04, 2017, 12:34:56 AM »
Quote from: nellberg on April 04, 2017, 12:06:27 AM
Quote from: doubleup on April 04, 2017, 12:04:08 AM
Quote from: nellberg on April 03, 2017, 11:50:23 PM
I know I should probably know this but ..
7/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4
or
6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5
6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5 is slightly better, but assuming that this is a favourite in a golf tournament, the extra place is worth slightly less, so not much in it imo
cricket, IPL outright top batsman. With Kohli possibly missing chunks of the season I'm keen to back Warner.
Found some 9/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4 with betweigh, which is assume is much better. Cheers for the help though. Is there a blank formula to use in these cases? just for future reference
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Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16595
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #126932 on:
April 04, 2017, 01:42:41 AM »
Quote from: nellberg on April 04, 2017, 12:34:56 AM
Quote from: nellberg on April 04, 2017, 12:06:27 AM
Quote from: doubleup on April 04, 2017, 12:04:08 AM
Quote from: nellberg on April 03, 2017, 11:50:23 PM
I know I should probably know this but ..
7/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4
or
6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5
6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5 is slightly better, but assuming that this is a favourite in a golf tournament, the extra place is worth slightly less, so not much in it imo
cricket, IPL outright top batsman. With Kohli possibly missing chunks of the season I'm keen to back Warner.
Found some 9/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4 with betweigh, which is assume is much better. Cheers for the help though. Is there a blank formula to use in these cases? just for future reference
Much better, I'd say 7/1 4 places is going to be better than 6/1 5 places too. You'd have to assume a pretty slow drop off in the odds on each place for the 6/1 to be better.
Using a formula for every event is going to suck a bit, as the 5th place from 16 runners is going to be better than the 5th from 35. If you aren't really sure what you are doing, just use betfair. If there isn't a market, just ask.
Logged
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Ant040689
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 4037
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #126933 on:
April 04, 2017, 06:21:57 AM »
On the Palace bets I would say there is value in both games, Arsenal and Southampton. I do like the handicap angle on both though. I like doing both the win market for Southampton and the handicap, and the outright handicap for Arsenal.
Quick question just for clarification, as i am confused by how similarly priced they are...
the Palace +1 handicap below is if Southampton win by 1, you get your stake back, but if it is a draw or better you win?
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps
But the Palace +0.5 asian handicap below is if you lose by one you lose it all and you need the draw or better?
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap
How is it they are effectively the same price? Clearly the normal handicap is so much better or am i missing something?
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Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16595
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #126934 on:
April 04, 2017, 09:49:37 AM »
Quote from: Ant040689 on April 04, 2017, 06:21:57 AM
On the Palace bets I would say there is value in both games, Arsenal and Southampton. I do like the handicap angle on both though. I like doing both the win market for Southampton and the handicap, and the outright handicap for Arsenal.
Quick question just for clarification, as i am confused by how similarly priced they are...
the Palace +1 handicap below is if Southampton win by 1, you get your stake back, but if it is a draw or better you win?
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps
But the Palace +0.5 asian handicap below is if you lose by one you lose it all and you need the draw or better?
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap
How is it they are effectively the same price? Clearly the normal handicap is so much better or am i missing something?
The top one looks like a three way handicap, so why would you get your stakeback?
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
doubleup
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 7065
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #126935 on:
April 04, 2017, 10:21:21 AM »
Quote from: Doobs on April 04, 2017, 01:42:41 AM
Quote from: nellberg on April 04, 2017, 12:34:56 AM
Quote from: nellberg on April 04, 2017, 12:06:27 AM
Quote from: doubleup on April 04, 2017, 12:04:08 AM
Quote from: nellberg on April 03, 2017, 11:50:23 PM
I know I should probably know this but ..
7/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4
or
6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5
6/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5 is slightly better, but assuming that this is a favourite in a golf tournament, the extra place is worth slightly less, so not much in it imo
cricket, IPL outright top batsman. With Kohli possibly missing chunks of the season I'm keen to back Warner.
Found some 9/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4 with betweigh, which is assume is much better. Cheers for the help though. Is there a blank formula to use in these cases? just for future reference
Much better, I'd say 7/1 4 places is going to be better than 6/1 5 places too. You'd have to assume a pretty slow drop off in the odds on each place for the 6/1 to be better.
Using a formula for every event is going to suck a bit, as the 5th place from 16 runners is going to be better than the 5th from 35. If you aren't really sure what you are doing, just use betfair. If there isn't a market, just ask.
You can download this excel sheet, but it is really only a reasonable guide for 20-1 plus odds imo. The problem with using it for shorter odds is that the calc assumes that the odds of finishing first are the same as finishing 5th and this becomes less true the shorter the odds.
The spreadsheet is fine for comparing the various offers on the Masters golf outside the first few favourites.
https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=AEFB6FBC913A92D2
!157&ithint=file%2cxlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!APdm6nXInsQowTk
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Ant040689
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 4037
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #126936 on:
April 04, 2017, 10:35:31 AM »
Quote from: Doobs on April 04, 2017, 09:49:37 AM
Quote from: Ant040689 on April 04, 2017, 06:21:57 AM
On the Palace bets I would say there is value in both games, Arsenal and Southampton. I do like the handicap angle on both though. I like doing both the win market for Southampton and the handicap, and the outright handicap for Arsenal.
Quick question just for clarification, as i am confused by how similarly priced they are...
the Palace +1 handicap below is if Southampton win by 1, you get your stake back, but if it is a draw or better you win?
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps
But the Palace +0.5 asian handicap below is if you lose by one you lose it all and you need the draw or better?
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap
How is it they are effectively the same price? Clearly the normal handicap is so much better or am i missing something?
The top one looks like a three way handicap, so why would you get your stakeback?
Ah i ignored the tie aspect option then. Am I right in saying if there was only Southampton -1 and Palace +1 available, it would be a push at 1 nil to Palace or have a i dreamt that market up?
So in the three way handicap market the Palace +1 is the same as the asian handicap Palace +0.5?
Yup to Matt's views on Palace's they could be jaded, and having Delaney start instead of Tomkins or Dann at CB is a blow, but i would hope the solidity would still be there. With that in mind I still think there is value in the Palace price away to Southampton.
So I think 4k suited's tip is a bet if you want to go ahead with it, at £20 at 4/1 ish
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/winner
I would suggest going for £70 at evens or over on the asian handicap Palace + 0.5 as well or identical market, wherever you can get the best price, anything evens or over is fine.
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/double-chance
On Fraser's tip. I would say the 5/1 is a good price on the win market. I would go about the same as above for finding a bet with the handicaps though as personal preference. I have no idea about draw no bet markets, i barely know what i am talking about with the markets i do like to bet on
. I would have to imagine it is value though and back that bet as well.
Before i get accused of going Palace crazy here, I have hardly spoke all season on them, they just look big in these games
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TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #126937 on:
April 04, 2017, 12:05:23 PM »
crikey very confused now
three different sets of palace tips.asians, handicaps,double chance,draw no bet.anyone for half time fulltime?
when is the game? tonight?
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
DMorgan
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 4449
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #126938 on:
April 04, 2017, 01:20:36 PM »
The rec is £70 Palace +0.5 @ 2.13 with Vic I think
Or £20 Palace win at 5/1 with bfsb
Edit:
Ant, there are Asian Handicaps and Euro handicaps. Asian you get your money back when its a tie but you can't back the draw in that market.
With euro handicaps you can back it to be a draw after the handicap is applied so no refunds
Southampton -1 euro handicap (they have to win by two) is best price 3.4 but Southampton -1 asian handicap (they win by two or more its a win, just by one its a push) is 2.59
Can anyone explain why the +0.5 asian handicap and +1 euro handicap are priced differently?
«
Last Edit: April 04, 2017, 01:36:05 PM by DMorgan
»
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Quote from: Karabiner on May 24, 2014, 12:47:13 PM
Is Dan awake yet?
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #126939 on:
April 04, 2017, 01:51:52 PM »
Fraser Palace DNB v the Arsenal is now 9/4 best. recommended 29/10 so i thoroughly missed the price,juggling all my balls and dropping a few
i am going to ask for alternatives now the price has gone
--
as for Southampton,not sure why we'd do the outright and the Asian +0.5.i glazed over mid report
the current outright is 4/1 best so doing that for now
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/winner
Crystal Palace Southampton v Crystal Palace Winner
4/1
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £100.00
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
FUN4FRASER
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2249
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #126940 on:
April 04, 2017, 01:53:26 PM »
Quote from: Ant040689 on April 04, 2017, 06:21:57 AM
On the Palace bets I would say there is value in both games, Arsenal and Southampton. I do like the handicap angle on both though. I like doing both the win market for Southampton and the handicap, and the outright handicap for Arsenal.
Quick question just for clarification, as i am confused by how similarly priced they are...
the Palace +1 handicap below is if Southampton win by 1, you get your stake back, but if it is a draw or better you win?
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps
But the Palace +0.5 asian handicap below is if you lose by one you lose it all and you need the draw or better?
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap
How is it they are effectively the same price? Clearly the normal handicap is so much better or am i missing something?
Hi Ant
Hope you are well
Ill try and answer your question (s)
When backing the
"
normal /English handicap
"
market there are 3 outcomes (home draw away )
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps
So for example.....If you back Palace plus one goal it means
If Palace win the match 1-0 , by adding the +1 Palace goal the effective score is 2-0 so
backing Palace is the winner
If the match is drawn say 1-1 by adding the +1 Palace goal handicap the draw becomes a 2-1 win so
backing Palace is the winner
If Southampton win say 2-1 by adding the + 1 Palace goal handicap the Southampton win becomes a 2-2 draw so
backing the Draw is the winner
For Southampton to win they need to win by two clear goals say Southampton win 3-1 by adding the +1 Palace goal handicap it becomes a 3-2 win so
backing Southampton is the winner
When backing the
Asian Handicap
effectively the draw is taken out of the equation
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap
So for example ....when backing Palace plus 0.5 ( half a goal ) means
If Palace win the match 1-0 , by adding the 0.5 Palace goal the effective score is 1.5-0 so
backing Palace is the winner
If the match is drawn say 1-1 by adding the 0.5 Palace goal handicap the effective score becomes a 1.5-1 win so
backing Palace is the winner
If Southampton win say 2-1 by adding the 0.5 Palace goal handicap the Southampton win the effective score becomes a 2-1.5 win so
backing Southampton is the winner
If Southampton win 3-1 by adding the 0.5 Palace goal handicap it becomes a 3-1.5 win so
backing Southampton is the winner
In the two examples above its effectively the same bet backing Palace +1 on The Normal/ English Handicap as betting Palace + 0.5 on the Asian Handicap
however you will note the better prices are available in most cases on the Asian handicap , this is because there is a lot of liquidity in Asia as opposed to
The Normal/ English handicaps that have been put together by UK bookies ( trying to create a better edge )
also in the Asian Handicaps you do get a lot of Draw = No Bet or "no result if a draw " so if you buy your team at 0 thats effectively DNB
Cliffs...Stick to The Asian handicaps as a general rule of thumb
Hope this helps
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FUN4FRASER
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2249
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #126941 on:
April 04, 2017, 01:58:16 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on April 04, 2017, 01:51:52 PM
Fraser Palace DNB v the Arsenal is now 9/4 best. recommended 29/10 so i thoroughly missed the price,juggling all my balls and dropping a few
i am going to ask for alternatives now the price has gone
--
as for Southampton,not sure why we'd do the outright and the Asian +0.5.i glazed over mid report
the current outright is 4/1 best so doing that for now
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/winner
Crystal Palace Southampton v Crystal Palace Winner
4/1
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £100.00
No problem Rich
Too many TFT readers either smashing the prices from the shadows or more likely the lol layers shortening them regardless
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BigAdz
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 8152
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #126942 on:
April 04, 2017, 03:04:39 PM »
More like two bets in 5mins on a side market causes alarm bells and flashing lights.
Not sure I subscribe to the idea traders sat here watching our every move. I know one of the Coral guys in the spotlight and he has never heard of TFT.
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Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
FUN4FRASER
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2249
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #126943 on:
April 04, 2017, 03:06:31 PM »
Quote from: FUN4FRASER on April 04, 2017, 01:53:26 PM
Quote from: Ant040689 on April 04, 2017, 06:21:57 AM
On the Palace bets I would say there is value in both games, Arsenal and Southampton. I do like the handicap angle on both though. I like doing both the win market for Southampton and the handicap, and the outright handicap for Arsenal.
Quick question just for clarification, as i am confused by how similarly priced they are...
the Palace +1 handicap below is if Southampton win by 1, you get your stake back, but if it is a draw or better you win?
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps
But the Palace +0.5 asian handicap below is if you lose by one you lose it all and you need the draw or better?
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap
How is it they are effectively the same price? Clearly the normal handicap is so much better or am i missing something?
Hi Ant
Hope you are well
Ill try and answer your question (s)
When backing the
"
normal /English handicap
"
market there are 3 outcomes (home draw away ) https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps
So for example.....If you back Palace plus one goal it means
If Palace win the match 1-0 , by adding the +1 Palace goal the effective score is 2-0 so
backing Palace is the winner
If the match is drawn say 1-1 by adding the +1 Palace goal handicap the draw becomes a 2-1 win so
backing Palace is the winner
If Southampton win say 2-1 by adding the + 1 Palace goal handicap the Southampton win becomes a 2-2 draw so
backing the Draw is the winner
For Southampton to win they need to win by two clear goals say Southampton win 3-1 by adding the +1 Palace goal handicap it becomes a 3-2 win so
backing Southampton is the winner
When backing the
Asian Handicap
effectively the draw is taken out of the equation
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap
So for example ....when backing Palace plus 0.5 ( half a goal ) means
If Palace win the match 1-0 , by adding the 0.5 Palace goal the effective score is 1.5-0 so
backing Palace is the winner
If the match is drawn say 1-1 by adding the 0.5 Palace goal handicap the effective score becomes a 1.5-1 win so
backing Palace is the winner
If Southampton win say 2-1 by adding the 0.5 Palace goal handicap the Southampton win the effective score becomes a 2-1.5 win so
backing Southampton is the winner
If Southampton win 3-1 by adding the 0.5 Palace goal handicap it becomes a 3-1.5 win so
backing Southampton is the winner
In the two examples above
its similar prices backing Palace
+1 on The Normal/ English Handicap as betting Palace + 0.5 on the Asian Handicap
however you will note the better prices are available in most cases on the Asian handicap , this is because there is a lot of liquidity in Asia as opposed to
The Normal/ English handicaps that have been put together by UK bookies ( trying to create a better edge )
also in the Asian Handicaps you do get a lot of Draw = No Bet or "no result if a draw " so if you buy your team at 0 thats effectively DNB
Cliffs...Stick to The Asian handicaps as a general rule of thumb
Hope this helps
I was trying to say similar prices (highlighted red)
«
Last Edit: April 04, 2017, 03:08:27 PM by FUN4FRASER
»
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Chompy
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 11852
Expert
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #126944 on:
April 04, 2017, 03:20:49 PM »
Quote from: BigAdz on April 04, 2017, 03:04:39 PM
More like two bets in 5mins on a side market causes alarm bells and flashing lights.
Not sure I subscribe to the idea traders sat here watching our every move. I know one of the Coral guys in the spotlight and he has never heard of TFT.
Sounds likely tbf.
Then again Simon Clare said Coral never shut accounts, so who knows?
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
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