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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13332977 times)
AndrewT
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« Reply #134325 on: October 02, 2018, 09:06:52 PM »


Taking the shortlist down to 6 that won't be announced until the night will mean no campaigns for niche sports will have a chance to get going.

Initial thoughts are that the shortlist would be very obvious, but surely the BBC would get huge stick if there aren't at least a couple of women on it, who would then get few votes (top 2 women in the betting are Dina Asher Smith and Lizzy Yarnold).

That reduces things further to probably only 4 real runners. Current 2nd fav is Harry Kane who, from an achievement point of view, is a lol choice. Add to this that the only winner from a team sport since 2005 is Ryan Giggs, who had Man Utd fans voting for him and Kane doesn't appeal.

Next two in the betting are Alastair Cook and Lewis Hamilton - Cook obvious relying on a Giggs-style lifetime achievement award and Hamilton a weapons-grade arsehole who will win another F1 title by beating the one other car that has a comparable performance level.

Next Anthony Joshua and Tommy Fleetwood - Joshua couldn't win last year after beating Klitschko and has fought no-one this year and Fleetwood is a bit of a character, played quite well in a team event and came 2nd in US Open - hardly earth-shattering.

This leaves Geraint Thomas - Tour De France winner, Welsh and, crucially, seemingly untainted by the drugs scandal in cycling. As we've seen in previous years, it doesn't need many votes to win this and if you find 'being Welsh' a niche thing then it'll get him votes.

He is 11/8 fav and the major thing against him is that I have no idea how interesting a person he comes across when being interviewed - this is a huge thing as Mo Farah's child won him the award last year by being cute in the interview.

I had a scoot down the betting list to see if I could find a flyer at a bigger price and the one who jumps out is Tyson Fury at around 50/1. He fights Wilder two weeks before SPOTY and has the potential to give a lively interview on the night. He came 4th three years ago despite spending the night defending himself against anti-gay comments he made.

It's obviously dependent on him beating Wilder (he's 2.6 on BF to win) which would make him about 18/1 for SPOTY on the night but if he beats Wilder he'd be shorter than that so I'd make him a bet right now.
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tikay
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« Reply #134326 on: October 02, 2018, 09:13:54 PM »


"weapons grade arsehole" though.

Smiley
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« Reply #134327 on: October 02, 2018, 09:52:23 PM »

Can't understand why you think Dina Asher-Smith gets few votes.  I was surprised to see she was 20/1 on betfair.   She is as fast as any woman in the World right now, is always smiling and bound to get ramped on the BBC.   Would take her in a match bet vs any boxer.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #134328 on: October 02, 2018, 10:05:54 PM »

Backing a couple of live ones at prices in a year when the format's changing makes a lot of sense with no stand-out candidate.

All the Fodds boys have wiped the market for now, at least according to Oddschecker. But then again Oddschecker are still showing previews of the Eurovision on their lolsite, so who knows?

Cook can't win it obv. Neither can Joshua.

Asher-Smith and Fury will do for me.
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
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« Reply #134329 on: October 02, 2018, 10:07:03 PM »


Salford are starting to crush hard now and heading for oddsonville. If we can get the 17-10 with 356 in a £50EW double with Peterhead for Scotch L2 at 13-8? Both should be much shorter and there's no way either finish out of the three for almost money back.


Anyone help with this?

Do you follow the National League much?

Wondered if you have a view on Harrogate Town?  They were nip and tuck with Salford all last season and though beaten in the end had a far superior goal difference.   They are right up there with them again this year, and have had only one bad result. They obviously didn't sign the same level of superstar as Salford over the summer, but they have been on an upward trajectory for the last few years, and have only recently gone full time.   The manager is the chairman's son, which would normally make you run a mile, but the manager was there first.   They have been getting it quietly and have been friendless in the outright betting markets all season (bar my nan anyway).

I used to follow them, but haven't seen them live since the Northern Counties East league days, though my brother still goes every so often.

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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #134330 on: October 02, 2018, 10:20:55 PM »

No idea tbh Doobs.

Only really kept an eye on Orient and Salford thus far.
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
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« Reply #134331 on: October 03, 2018, 09:54:53 AM »

Conference Speech Bingo with Theresa May.....

Brexit
1/66
National Security
1/16
Hard Border
1/2
General Election
4/6
Chequers
8/11
Let Me Be Clear
8/11
Russia
1/1
Socialism
11/10
Trump
6/5
Free Speech
5/4
Boris
6/4
Peoples Vote
6/4
Capitalism
7/4
Climate Change
2/1
Will of the People
2/1
Canada
9/4
Strictly
9/4
Take Back Control
9/4
Bright Future
5/2
I'm Sorry
5/2
Thatcher
5/2
Tough Choices
11/4
Venezuela
11/4
For the Many
3/1
Bodyguard
10/3
Hard Decisions
4/1
Putin
4/1
Magic Money Tree
9/2
Ryder Cup
9/2
Traditional Conservative Values
9/2
Data Protection
5/1
Fields of Wheat
5/1
Strong and Stable
Susp
For the Long Haul
11/2
Norway
11/2
Global Trading Power
6/1
Not a Penny More
8/1
Salisbury
8/1
Kim Jong Un
10/1
Nanny State
10/1
Twitter
10/1
Have Our Cake and Eat It
16/1
I've Changed My Mind
16/1
Nothing Has Changed
16/1
Bridge to Ireland
25/1

I fancy Salisbury at 8/1 (Sky so not for fred)
« Last Edit: October 03, 2018, 10:06:01 AM by ripple11 » Logged
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« Reply #134332 on: October 03, 2018, 01:09:33 PM »

Liking Notts County to finish top seven in L2 @ 7-1.

I'm pinning last season's play-off lolperformances and this season's early slump on Kevin Nolan. Things have improved quickly under Kewell.
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
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« Reply #134333 on: October 03, 2018, 01:59:08 PM »

I fancy Salisbury at 8/1

Sigh,didn't hear all the speech,but think she mentioned "the Russian attack on British streets"

What's wrong with name checking the town!?? Angry

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« Reply #134334 on: October 03, 2018, 02:15:38 PM »

I had a tenner on at 50/1 for her to dance like an absolute twat.

Lattes on me.
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« Reply #134335 on: October 03, 2018, 02:44:57 PM »

I had a tenner on at 50/1 for her to dance like an absolute twat.

Lattes on me.

When she tries to do her funny stuff, she kinda reminds me of Miranda.

Imagine being stuck in a lift with Mrs May & Miranda.
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« Reply #134336 on: October 03, 2018, 05:02:01 PM »

Comedy watching Skybet since they stuck up prices on the next Villa manager about half an hour ago.

Dean Smith 6-1...4-1...suspended...3-1...check out VCBet...2-1...6-4

It's almost like they don't know what they're doing.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2018, 05:31:57 PM by Chompy » Logged

"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
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« Reply #134337 on: October 05, 2018, 09:38:21 AM »


Brighton take on resurgent West Ham at the AMEX tonight.

Looks an intriguing match-up.

Approx prices;

Brighton 7/4

West Ham 7/4

Draw 9/4


Where's the value, if any?
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« Reply #134338 on: October 05, 2018, 06:52:57 PM »

Any Miami dolphins fans on here? Wondering how your defense copes against the tightend screen and seam routes..
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hhyftrftdr
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« Reply #134339 on: October 05, 2018, 07:43:49 PM »


Brighton take on resurgent West Ham at the AMEX tonight.

Looks an intriguing match-up.

Approx prices;

Brighton 7/4

West Ham 7/4

Draw 9/4


Where's the value, if any?

Istanbul Grill in York, 2 for 1 on collected pizzas until 10pm.

PS, don't forget you still have £30 credit with me. Use it on whatever; kebabs, burgers, cheesy chips, nuggets.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 07:55:06 PM by hhyftrftdr » Logged

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